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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Santiago De La Fuente(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.57	T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-06-09	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	A Finetuned SpeechLLM for Joint Multi-Granular L2 Assessment and Natural-Language Rationales	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	Proposal Refinement for Few-Shot Object Detection	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	From Genes to Tokens: a GWAS-inspired Approach for Interpretable Stylometric Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	MAAM: Anchor-Preserving Compression and Contextual Calibration for Chinese Discriminatory Language Detection	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.57	Segment-level Tree Search for Long Meeting Document Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-07	CYB_015 The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen resumes generated by other bot agents, completely removing the human connection required to accurately assess contextual experience — bot-on-bot recursive... Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	86%
0.57	The macroscopic Kaehler metric of Geometric Thermodynamics versus the microscopic one on the Event Manifold: Exact Partition Functions on CV manifolds. Extended Souriau temperatures and spontaneous magnetizations	arxiv 2026-06-08	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	5%
0.57	Stress Tensor Deformations in dS/CFT: Mixed Boundary Conditions, Spectrum Flow and Pseudo Entropy	arxiv 2026-06-08	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Electromagnetism from two matter spaces: mutual helicity and the nondegenerate completion	arxiv 2026-06-08	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	FDA ANDA077345: SERTRALINE HYDROCHLORIDE (SERTRALINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HERITAGE PHARMA AVET	fda 2026-06-03	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	241_041 Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers Eric Schmidt	AI	39%
0.57	Will George Pickens play for Cleveland Browns in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Will Brendan Allen be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Partizan vs. BC Dubai(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Maxx Crosby play for Minnesota Vikings next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.57	Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.57	$k$-Nearest Neighbors in Gromov--Wasserstein Space	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	Robust Active Learning for Few-Shot Example Selection in Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	From Genes to Tokens: a GWAS-inspired Approach for Interpretable Stylometric Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Generalized-CVO: Fast and Correspondence-Free Local Point Cloud Registration with Second Order Riemannian Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.57	Natural Inflation with a negative cosmological constant	arxiv 2026-06-09	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Ramond from Random: Weil-Petersson Volumes for Super-Riemann surfaces with NS Boundaries and R Punctures	arxiv 2026-06-08	239_032 Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	FDA ANDA204237: RABEPRAZOLE SODIUM (RABEPRAZOLE SODIUM) — RUBICON RESEARCH	fda 2026-06-05	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.57	IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	World Cup 2026 prop bets	manifold 2026-06-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) (CIK 0000018926)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) (CIK 0000018926)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) (CIK 0000018230)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) (CIK 0001571996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.57	Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) (CIK 0000018926)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) (CIK 0000018926)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	Chubb Ltd (CB) (CIK 0000896159)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.57	Chubb Ltd (CB) (CIK 0000896159)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	CMQ_033 Global HBM demand will reach 32 billion Gb by 2026 — HBM is the absolute critical resource constraint in the AI compute supply chain. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	75%
0.57	uva-irlab-conv at SemEval-2026 Task 8: Multi-Turn RAG with Learned Sparse Retrieval and Listwise Reranking	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	A PubMed-Scale Dataset of Structured Biomedical Abstracts	arxiv 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	Revisiting the Axial Anomaly and Chiral Magnetic Effect in Dense Matter, with Applications to Axion Dark Matter	arxiv 2026-06-10	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	Invariants of Sequential Circuits and Generalized Non-Abelian Statistics	arxiv 2026-06-10	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Will Maxx Crosby play for Indianapolis Colts next?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	32%
0.57	Will Tadeo Allende win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Neal Shipley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Will Neal Shipley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.57	Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) (CIK 0001703057)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	15%
0.57	Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) (CIK 0001571996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.57	EvTexture++: Event-Driven Texture Enhancement for Video Super-Resolution	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Uncertainty-Aware Hybrid Retrieval for Long-Document RAG	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Multi-Label Test-Time Adaptation with Bayesian Conditional Priors	arxiv 2026-06-11	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	An End-to-End Hybrid Framework for Rumour Detection in Low-Resources Algerian Dialect	arxiv 2026-06-11	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Kevin Roy win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.57	Will someone manigram me 500 mana?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-13	239_022 Future AI will care about power/mass rather than human currency Elon Musk	AI	36%
0.57	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.12.0	github_release 2022-06-10	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.57	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.4.0	github_release 2018-06-15	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.57	Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.57	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	41%
0.57	Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will I drop out of undergrad?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-14	240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.57	How many years between Starship 50 and Starship 500?	manifold 2026-06-14	231_046 Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will my account be restricted or removed by Monday, June 22?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-15	234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	2026 US Open Prop Bets	manifold 2026-06-15	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner concede 5 or fewer total goals throughout the tournament?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-15	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Toast, Inc. (TOST) (CIK 0001650164)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Powerfleet, Inc. (AIOT) (CIK 0001774170)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.57	MOSAIC CO (MOS) (CIK 0001285785)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	SEM_017 TSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K/mo at 3nm. TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	57%
0.57	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.9	github_release 2025-11-28	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.57	Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	55%
0.57	ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.57	Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2025-12-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) (CIK 0001783879)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Natera, Inc. (NTRA) (CIK 0001604821)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Natera, Inc. (NTRA) (CIK 0001604821)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) (CIK 0001571996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.57	NVMOS: Non-Verbal Vocalization Quality Assessment in Speech	arxiv 2026-06-14	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.57	A Self Consistency Based Reranking for Narrative Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-14	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	A scaling non-compact QCD axion	arxiv 2026-06-15	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Morphology-resolved scrambling in a chaotic quantum billiard	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.57	FDA ANDA077083: LEFLUNOMIDE (LEFLUNOMIDE) — BARR	fda 2026-06-02	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	FDA NDA214373: BRENZAVVY (BEXAGLIFLOZIN) — THERACOSBIO	fda 2026-06-03	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Brandon Woodruff win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Which Scores Will Happen on June 17th FIFA World Cup 2026	manifold 2026-06-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-06-16	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Beyond Visual Cues: CoT-Enhanced Reasoning for Semi-supervised Medical Image Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Probing the QCD Phase Structure with Dileptons from SIS to LHC Energies	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	FDA ANDA203125: METHYLPREDNISOLONE SODIUM SUCCINATE (METHYLPREDNISOLONE SODIUM SUCCINATE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-11	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	32%
0.57	Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?	manifold 2026-06-18	237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Will factory farming ever be de facto banned and enforced across the contiguous United States?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-16	247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis	Energy	50%
0.57	Voyager Technologies, Inc./TX (VOYG) (CIK 0001788060)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.57	PFIZER INC (PFE) (CIK 0000078003)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	PFIZER INC (PFE) (CIK 0000078003)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL) (CIK 0001703057)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	15%
0.57	Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) (CIK 0001571996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.57	MIDDLEBY Corp (MIDD) (CIK 0000769520)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	nVent Electric plc (NVT) (CIK 0001720635)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.57	Private Learning with Public Feature Conditioning	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Private Learning with Public Feature Conditioning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	56%
0.57	SCAN: Enhance Time Series Anomaly Detection via Multi-Scale Neighborhood-Centered Clustering	arxiv 2026-06-17	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.57	Universal Closed Form for Dynamical Love Numbers of Black Holes	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	26%
0.57	Hydrodynamics of perfect fluids with anomalies from the fermionic path integral	arxiv 2026-06-17	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	facebookresearch/mtm Datasets-v1	github_release 2023-04-27	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.57	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-06-19	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup: Will there be exactly 6 or 7 knockout matches ending 3–0?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-19	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	15%
0.57	Frequency-Aware Flow Matching for Continuous and Consistent Robotic Action Generation	arxiv 2026-06-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	A BART-based approach with hierarchical strategy for Vietnamese abstractive multi-document summarization	arxiv 2026-06-17	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.57	CzechDocs: A Multiway Parallel Dataset of Formatted Documents for Minority Languages in Czechia	arxiv 2026-06-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Exact Solution of the Non-minimally Coupled Klein-Gordon Equation in the Schwarzschild Star	arxiv 2026-06-17	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA202593: CAPECITABINE (CAPECITABINE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-09	247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	55%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-27	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will San Francisco Giants win the 2026 National League Championship Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-19	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy/Compute	86%
0.57	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup: Will there be at least one 4–0 knockout match AND fewer than 8 total 3–0 knockout matches?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-19	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	15%
0.57	Will the "5000 Gazans" market bankrupt @Chumchulum?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-06-17	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.57	Will the "5000 Gazans" market bankrupt @Chumchulum?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-06-17	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	FDA ANDA202691: METHYLPREDNISOLONE SODIUM SUCCINATE (METHYLPREDNISOLONE SODIUM SUCCINATE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-11	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will there be 40+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Will Putin lose his position as President of Russia before the end of his term, May 6, 2030?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-20	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.57	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.57	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.57	T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Brazil vs Panama(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will the UK Government establish a dedicated immigration enforcement agency similar to US ICE by end of 2026?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-22	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.57	SPX Technologies, Inc. (SPXC) (CIK 0000088205)	edgar_8k 2026-06-22	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	MaRS: Robust Out-of-Distribution Detection via Mahalanobis Residual Scoring	arxiv 2026-06-21	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	MaRS: Robust Out-of-Distribution Detection via Mahalanobis Residual Scoring	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Koshur Pixel: a large-scale synthetic ocr dataset for kashmiri	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.57	Quantification of the Flavor Diagonal Hadronic CP Violation	arxiv 2026-06-22	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	Spacetime torsion fixes the mass and spin of gravitationally produced dark matter	arxiv 2026-06-22	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	Unified theory of oscillons and modes	arxiv 2026-06-21	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	Radiative Lifting of $\mathbb{Z}_3$ Domain-Wall Degeneracy in a Type-III Seesaw Model: Implications for Leptogenesis and Gravitational Waves	arxiv 2026-06-21	240_012 Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Starobinsky-inflation in asymptotically safe shift-symmetric scalar-tensor theory	arxiv 2026-06-21	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	FDA ANDA087393: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA ANDA214590: TRETINOIN (TRETINOIN) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-06-11	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	32%
0.57	Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will Mbappe play in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-06-24	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.57	Will the ICC issue an arrest warrant against a sitting world leader before 2030?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-24	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.57	Will Kenya get a chess international master within 1year?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-24	242_047 Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%