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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	facebookresearch/exca 0.2.0	github_release 2025-01-29	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.57	Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.57	Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5)(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	FDA ANDA219288: CYCLOSPORINE (CYCLOSPORINE) — JIANGSU ANBISON	fda 2026-06-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	facebookresearch/vissl v0.1.5	github_release 2021-03-02	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.57	Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.57	Supervision versus Demonstration-Based In-Context Learning for Multiword Expression Classification	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.57	CRAFT: A Unified Counterfactual Reasoning Framework for Tabular Question Answering and Fact Verification	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.57	New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Spread: Spurs (-1.5)(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.57	Spread: Spurs (-1.5)(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-08	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	27%
0.57	10x Genomics, Inc. (TXG) (CIK 0001770787)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Spurs vs. Knicks(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-09	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	URANIUM ENERGY CORP (UEC) (CIK 0001334933)	edgar_8k 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	STERLING INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. (STRL) (CIK 0000874238)	edgar_8k 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Frequency-based Constrained Sampling for Interval Patterns	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	A Finetuned SpeechLLM for Joint Multi-Granular L2 Assessment and Natural-Language Rationales	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.57	Stress Tensor Deformations in dS/CFT: Mixed Boundary Conditions, Spectrum Flow and Pseudo Entropy	arxiv 2026-06-08	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Exact Four-Parameter Rotating NS--NS Vacuum in Double Field Theory	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	26%
0.57	Self-Gravitating Magnetic Monopoles and Dyons in String-Inspired Models: Structure and Stability	arxiv 2026-06-07	235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	26%
0.57	Will George Pickens play for Atlanta Falcons in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-27	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Will George Pickens play for Buffalo Bills in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-27	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-16	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-10	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.57	Will I reach a streak of 100 in Wordle?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-09	229_024 Figure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, 10 million homes on a super-exponential curve. Brett Adcock	Robotics	41%
0.57	Revealing the topology of quantum states via Kirkwood-Dirac quasiprobabilities	arxiv 2026-06-09	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Resonance and Differential Reduction of Feynman Integrals	arxiv 2026-06-08	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA204237: RABEPRAZOLE SODIUM (RABEPRAZOLE SODIUM) — RUBICON RESEARCH	fda 2026-06-05	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	Will Jelena Ostapenko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	20%
0.57	Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	20%
0.57	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	39%
0.57	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	32%
0.57	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	In which groups will the third-placed team advance in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	SLB LIMITED/NV (SLB) (CIK 0000087347)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.57	Augmenting Molecular Language Models with Local $n$-gram Memory	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Corpus Augmentation for Sign Language Translation via LLM-Guided Video Stitching	arxiv 2026-06-10	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	32%
0.57	Probabilistic Contrastive Pretraining for Multi-task ADME Property Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	A PubMed-Scale Dataset of Structured Biomedical Abstracts	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Linearized stability of T-duality quantum-inspired thin-shell wormholes	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	FDA ANDA210692: ATOVAQUONE (ATOVAQUONE) — HETERO LABS LTD III	fda 2026-06-08	247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	55%
0.57	Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	Will Miami Marlins win the 2026 NL East title?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-19	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	Will Neal Shipley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Best Out-of-Context Quote at Manifest 2026	manifold 2026-06-12	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	41%
0.57	AES CORP (AES) (CIK 0000874761)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	MentalMARBERT: Domain-Adaptive Pre-training and Two-Stage Fine-Tuning for Arabic Mental Health Disorders Detection	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.57	FDA ANDA090382: LOSARTAN POTASSIUM (LOSARTAN POTASSIUM) — STRIDES PHARMA	fda 2026-06-08	247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	55%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Kevin Roy win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Will the Jews admit that they control the weather before 2030?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-13	237_011 AI agents will have voices in the near future. Alex Finn	AI	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA204949: AZACITIDINE (AZACITIDINE) — PHARMOBEDIENT	fda 2026-06-09	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.10.1	github_release 2020-11-21	234_018 GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	15%
0.57	Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before Europeans?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-14	246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston(market prob: 72%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	2026 US Open Prop Bets	manifold 2026-06-15	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.57	2026 US Open Prop Bets	manifold 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.57	Will the number of U.S. Supreme Court Justices confirmed between June 15, 2026 and January 20, 2029 be at least one?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-15	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Will "Jackass: Best and Last" earn more than $25M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weeken(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-15	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.57	Free Lottery (cosmic voids)(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-15	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.57	Talen Energy Corp (TLN) (CIK 0001622536)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Powerfleet, Inc. (AIOT) (CIK 0001774170)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.57	PEABODY ENERGY CORP (BTU) (CIK 0001064728)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy	57%
0.57	Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Angela Dugalic win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Spread: Athletics (-1.5)(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Export controls on Fable 5 get rescinded within 72 hours of the release of GPT 5.6?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-16	IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	34%
0.57	Which Scores Will Happen on June 16th FIFA World Cup 2026	manifold 2026-06-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	AES CORP (AES) (CIK 0000874761)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	VinQA: Visual Elements Interleaved Long-form Answer Generation for Real-World Multimodal Document QA	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.57	Tool-IQA: Augmenting Image Quality Assessment with Simple Tools	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Entity Labels Are Not Entity Signals: A Framework for Observable Relevance in Document Re-Ranking	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Exact Posterior Score Estimation for Solving Linear Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.57	Neural Bayesian Anomaly Mitigation: A Robust Loss that Doubles as an Unsupervised Contamination Classifier	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	The BD-LSC Dataset: Facilitating the Benchmarking of Models for Lexical Semantic Change Detection in Slang and Standard Usage	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	A Self Consistency Based Reranking for Narrative Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-14	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.57	Towards mm-Level Accurate UWB Radar: High-Accuracy Phase-Based Obstacle Detection through Multi-Channel Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	PROSE: Training-Free Egocentric Scene Registration with Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	Decoupled Object-Centric Video Understanding for Generating Robotic Manipulation Commands	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.57	Determining the Spin Density Matrix via Its Rank and Probing the Quantum Entanglement and Bell Non-Locality at the Lepton Colliders	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Will Eury Perez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	9%
0.57	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	15%
0.57	Non-negative Elastic Net Decoding for Information Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.57	FlowRAG: Synergizing Explicit Reasoning via Frequency-Aware Multi-Granularity Graph Flow	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	VL-MemKnG: Hybrid Memory with a Spatio-Temporal Knowledge Graph for Question Answering over Long Egocentric Navigation Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	Emergent de Sitter Space and Non-Unitary Tensor Networks from Non-Hermitian Quantum Criticality	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Effective-metric formulation of Casimir energies in nonlinear scalar and electromagnetic theories	arxiv 2026-06-15	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Derivation of height field theory for the two-dimensional classical dimer model from a Grassmann-integral representation	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Are neutrinos Majorana? Fixed-target and high-energy astrophysical searches decide	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_018 SpaceX will pursue orbital data-center megaconstellations — leveraging 24/7 solar, near-absolute-zero vacuum for passive cooling, and eliminating freshwater consumption constraints of terrestrial facilities. Elon Musk	Space	20%
0.57	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.57	Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	16%
0.57	Will Maikel Garcia lead the MLB in doubles for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	League of Legends MSI 2026 winner	manifold 2026-06-18	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Will Donald Trump Tweet within the next 7 days?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-18	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Talen Energy Corp (TLN) (CIK 0001622536)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	RECURSION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (RXRX) (CIK 0001601830)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Ouster, Inc. (OUST) (CIK 0001816581)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.57	Morpheus: A Morphology-Aware Neural Tokenizer and Word Embedder for Turkish	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	CAOA -- Completion-Assisted Object-CAD Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	RankGraph-2: Lifecycle Co-Design for Billion-Node Graph Learning in Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.57	RankGraph-2: Lifecycle Co-Design for Billion-Node Graph Learning in Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.57	GCNGrasp-VP: Affordance-Guided View Planning for Efficient Task-Oriented Grasping	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.57	Diffractive Production of Heavy Quarkonia at the Electron Ion Collider	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Black p-brane Thermodynamics without Constructing Solutions	arxiv 2026-06-16	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Black p-brane Thermodynamics without Constructing Solutions	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	5%
0.57	FDA NDA201743: ARGATROBAN IN DEXTROSE (ARGATROBAN) — SANDOZ	fda 2026-06-03	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	15%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	ROB_008 Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... Morgan Stanley	Robotics	37%
0.57	Will Ralsei Transition by the end of Deltarune?	manifold 2026-06-18	229_013 The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. Brett Adcock	AI	73%
0.57	QueryGaussian: Scalable and Training-Free Open-Vocabulary 3D Instance Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	Denoising Implicit Feedback for Cold-start Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.57	CATCH-ME if you RAG: a dataset of Contextually Annotated multi-Turn Counterspeech against Hate and Misinformation Exchanges	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.57	Cosmological history after higher dimensional inflation	arxiv 2026-06-18	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	Metastable and critical-bubble branches of Coleman--Weinberg monopoles	arxiv 2026-06-18	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	FDA ANDA202593: CAPECITABINE (CAPECITABINE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-09	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2025-12-19	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.57	Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	ROB_008 Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... Morgan Stanley	Robotics	37%
0.57	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?	manifold 2026-06-20	247_013 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today Peter Dannenberg	Labor/Jobs	22%
0.57	Will there be 40+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.57	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.57	Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	39%
0.57	will x have a significant other by the end of ross(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-21	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	39%
0.57	Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	233_020 Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher program. Joe Liemandt	Education	77%
0.57	Golf: Who will win the 2027 US Open?	manifold 2026-06-22	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	What will be the total number of FIFA world cup markets created on Manifold by July 15?	manifold 2026-06-21	CMQ_051 Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla	Robotics	37%
0.57	Will Nneka Ogwumike have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	15%
0.57	US military draft authorized in 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-03-12	IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	23%
0.57	Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Discovering Latent Groups for Robust Classification	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	Differential Spectral Damping Gap Adaptive Regularization for Ill-Conditioned Kernel Methods	arxiv 2026-06-22	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	MaRS: Robust Out-of-Distribution Detection via Mahalanobis Residual Scoring	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Koshur Pixel: a large-scale synthetic ocr dataset for kashmiri	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	ROMEVA: Geometry-Preserving Vocabulary Expansion for Roman Urdu Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-21	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.57	Bounds on nonlinear electrodynamics via resummed relative entropy	arxiv 2026-06-22	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.57	On background fields and a cutoff in sigma models	arxiv 2026-06-22	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Unified theory of oscillons and modes	arxiv 2026-06-21	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Radiative Lifting of $\mathbb{Z}_3$ Domain-Wall Degeneracy in a Type-III Seesaw Model: Implications for Leptogenesis and Gravitational Waves	arxiv 2026-06-21	242_008 Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed Dave Blundin	Energy	27%
0.57	Dynamics of ($Z_N$) Domain Walls in SU(N) Gauge Theories	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	An Interplay Between Fractional Calculus and Holographic Dark Energy	arxiv 2026-06-21	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.57	FDA ANDA210211: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — WES PHARMA INC	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA NDA211913: ABSORICA LD (ISOTRETINOIN) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-06-12	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will DR Congo finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.57	Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%