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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.65	pytorch/pytorch v1.10.0	github_release 2021-10-21	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Will Terminator2 have more Manifold followers than CalibratedGhosts on 2026-05-20?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-05-06	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.65	MOSAIC-Bench: Measuring Compositional Vulnerability Induction in Coding Agents	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.65	EvoLM: Self-Evolving Language Models through Co-Evolved Discriminative Rubrics	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Amortized Variational Inference for Joint Posterior and Predictive Distributions in Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Static Analysis of Recursive SHACL	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	Decoupled Guidance Diffusion for Adaptive Offline Safe Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	U-Define: Designing User Workflows for Hard and Soft Constraints in LLM-Based Planning	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Deciphering Shortcut Learning from an Evolutionary Game Theory Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	On Adaptivity in Zeroth-Order Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	From Code to Prediction: Fine-Tuning LLMs for Neural Network Performance Classification in NNGPT	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	The Right Answer, the Wrong Direction: Why Transformers Fail at Counting and How to Fix It	arxiv 2026-05-05	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	Adaptive Data Compression and Reconstruction for Memory-Bounded EEG Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	Phoneme-Level Deepfake Detection Across Emotional Conditions Using Self-Supervised Embeddings	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	MSMixer: Learned Multi-Scale Temporal Mixing with Complementary Linear Shortcut for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Beating the Style Detector: Three Hours of Agentic Research on the AI-Text Arms Race	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	TeamUp: Semantic Project Matching and Team Formation for Learning at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_002 Educational systems must pivot from teaching skill acquisition and execution to teaching orchestration of agentic swarms and discovery of purpose — value accrues to individuals who master AI orchestration over traditional knowledge work; rendering trad... Alex Finn	Education	50%
0.65	When Correct Isn't Usable: Improving Structured Output Reliability in Small Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Bridging the Embodiment Gap: Disentangled Cross-Embodiment Video Editing	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Feedback Motion Planning for Stochastic Nonlinear Systems with Signal Temporal Logic Specifications	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Change-Robust Online Spatial-Semantic Topological Mapping	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	AoI-Aware Multi-Robot Sensing and Transport on Connected Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-04	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.65	FDA ANDA215759: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — BIOCON PHARMA	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Why Geometric Continuity Emerges in Deep Neural Networks: Residual Connections and Rotational Symmetry Breaking	arxiv 2026-05-06	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.65	Reinforcement Learning for Compositional Generalization with Outcome-Level Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-06	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.65	Paraphrase-Induced Output-Mode Collapse: When LLMs Break Character Under Semantically Equivalent Inputs	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Material Database Agent: A Multimodal Agentic Framework for Scientific Literature Mining	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	FDA ANDA207974: FINGOLIMOD HYDROCHLORIDE (FINGOLIMOD HYDROCHLORIDE) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-04-24	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.6	github_release 2020-09-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.24	github_release 2024-01-31	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will this market close between 60% - 70%(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-05-07	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.65	Verifier-Backed Hard Problem Generation for Mathematical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	When No Benchmark Exists: Validating Comparative LLM Safety Scoring Without Ground-Truth Labels	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Is One Layer Enough? Understanding Inference Dynamics in Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	NavOne: One-Step Global Planning for Vision-Language Navigation on Top-Down Maps	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Cumulative-Goodness Free-Riding in Forward-Forward Networks: Real, Repairable, but Not Accuracy-Dominant	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	FunctionalAgent: Towards end-to-end on-top functional design	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	Beyond Accuracy: Policy Invariance as a Reliability Test for LLM Safety Judges	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Causal Reinforcement Learning for Complex Card Games: A Magic The Gathering Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Detecting AI-Generated Videos with Spiking Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.65	Crafting Reversible SFT Behaviors in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Online Bayesian Calibration under Gradual and Abrupt System Changes	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.65	Layer Collapse in Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	Understanding diffusion models requires rethinking (again) generalization	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Beyond Negative Rollouts: Positive-Only Policy Optimization with Implicit Negative Gradients	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.65	The Frequency Confound in Language-Model Surprisal and Metaphor Novelty	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Teaching Thinking Models to Reason with Tools: A Full-Pipeline Recipe for Tool-Integrated Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Belief Memory: Agent Memory Under Partial Observability	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	ReaComp: Compiling LLM Reasoning into Symbolic Solvers for Efficient Program Synthesis	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Monitoring autonomous persistent surveillance missions using invariance	arxiv 2026-05-07	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.65	Resource-Constrained Robotic Planning in the face of Mixed Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Resource-Constrained Robotic Planning in the face of Mixed Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	AI-Aided Advancements in Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2025-10-24	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 11-17?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Routers Learn the Geometry of Their Experts: Geometric Coupling in Sparse Mixture-of-Experts	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Routers Learn the Geometry of Their Experts: Geometric Coupling in Sparse Mixture-of-Experts	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.65	Agent-Based Post-Hoc Correction of Agricultural Yield Forecasts	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.65	SkillSafetyBench: Evaluating Agent Safety under Skill-Facing Attack Surfaces	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	QDSB: Quantized Diffusion Schrödinger Bridges	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Understanding Sample Efficiency in Predictive Coding	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Improving the Performance and Learning Stability of Parallelizable RNNs Designed for Ultra-Low Power Applications	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	A Fast and Energy-Efficient Latch-Based Memristive Analog Content-Addressable Memory	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Entropy Polarity in Reinforcement Fine-Tuning: Direction, Asymmetry, and Control	arxiv 2026-05-12	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.65	Is Monotonic Sampling Necessary in Diffusion Models?	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Anti-Self-Distillation for Reasoning RL via Pointwise Mutual Information	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Fast MoE Inference via Predictive Prefetching and Expert Replication	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Multi-Narrow Transformation as a Single-Model Ensemble: Boundary Conditions, Mechanisms, and Failure Modes	arxiv 2026-05-12	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.65	Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.65	Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-14	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.65	Safe Bayesian Optimization for Uncertain Correlations Matrices in Linear Models of Co-Regionalization	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	PaMM: Periodic Motif Memory for Atomistic Models with an Explicit Local-Structure Interface	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	AcquisitionSynthesis: Targeted Data Generation using Acquisition Functions	arxiv 2026-05-13	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.65	Code-Centric Detection of Vulnerability-Fixing Commits: A Unified Benchmark and Empirical Study	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.65	Bridging Domain Gaps with Target-Aligned Generation for Offline Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	Large Language Models Lack Temporal Awareness of Medical Knowledge	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	Widening the Gap: Exploiting LLM Quantization via Outlier Injection	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	An Interpretable Latency Model for Speculative Decoding in LLM Serving	arxiv 2026-05-14	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Octopus: History-Free Gradient Orthogonalization for Continual Learning in Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.65	Fast Adversarial Attacks with Gradient Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.65	Fast Rates for Inverse Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Scaling Laws from Sequential Feature Recovery: A Solvable Hierarchical Model	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Resolving Action Bottleneck: Agentic Reinforcement Learning Informed by Token-Level Energy	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.65	Fully Dynamic Rebalancing in Dockless Bike-Sharing Systems via Deep Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.65	Data-Augmented Game Starts for Accelerating Self-Play Exploration in Imperfect Information Games	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	Price of July 2026 onion futures as of end of June?	manifold 2026-05-17	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.65	How will reading "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All" affect my P(Doom)?	manifold 2026-05-17	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-19	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.65	Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-19	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will BTC-USD close above $100,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-18	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.65	Vision-OPD: Learning to See Fine Details for Multimodal LLMs via On-Policy Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Distilling Tabular Foundation Models for Structured Health Data	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Better Together: Evaluating the Complementarity of Earth Embedding Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.65	Stochastic Penalty-Barrier Methods for Constrained Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	DBES: A Systematic Benchmark and Metric Suite for Evaluating Expert Specialization in Large-Scale MoEs	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Temporal Task Diversity: Inductive Biases Under Non-Stationarity in Synthetic Sequence Modelling	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	A Simplex Witness Certificate for Constant Collapse in Variational Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Dual-Rate Diffusion: Accelerating diffusion models with an interleaved heavy-light network	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Equilibrium Selection in Multi-Agent Policy Gradients via Opponent-Aware Basin Entry	arxiv 2026-05-18	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	RL4RLA: Teaching ML to Discover Randomized Linear Algebra Algorithms Through Curriculum Design and Graph-Based Search	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Lightweight Gaussian Process Inference in C++ on Metal and CUDA	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	$\boldsymbol{f}$-OPD: Stabilizing Long-Horizon On-Policy Distillation with Freshness-Aware Control	arxiv 2026-05-18	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.65	Generating Pretraining Tokens from Organic Data for Data-Bound Scaling	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	GenTS: A Comprehensive Benchmark Library for Generative Time Series Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will a prediction market-related court case reach the Supreme Court before 2029?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-27	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.65	Double digit USD inflation before 2028 election?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-26	236_034 Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	50%
0.65	which will happen first? (Codeforces Rating)	manifold 2026-05-24	238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.65	PhyGenHOI: Physically-Aware 4D Generation of Dynamic Human-Object Interactions	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	PhyGenHOI: Physically-Aware 4D Generation of Dynamic Human-Object Interactions	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Reinforcement Learning with Robust Rubric Rewards	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	When Should Models Change Their Minds? Contextual Belief Management in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Label Over Logic? How Source Cues Bias Human Fallacy Judgments More Than LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_049 Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	LaRA: Layer-wise Representation Analysis for Detecting Data Contamination in RL Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	OptSkills: Learning Generalizable Optimization Skills from Problem Archetypes via Cluster-Based Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	From Prompts to Context: An Ontology-Driven Framework for Human-Generative AI Collaboration	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Training Deliberative Monitors for Black-Box Scheming Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	44%
0.65	FinVerBench: Benchmark Validity and Calibration in Large Language Model Financial Statement Verification	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	FinVerBench: Benchmark Validity and Calibration in Large Language Model Financial Statement Verification	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	Battery-Sim-Agent: Leveraging LLM-Agent for Inverse Battery Parameter Estimation	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	UI-KOBE: Knowledge-Oriented Behavior Exploration for Lightweight Graph-Guided GUI Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	MINDGAMES: A Live Arena for Evaluating Social and Strategic Reasoning in Multi-Agent LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Efficient Test-Time Finetuning of LLMs via Convex Reconstruction and Gradient Caching	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Leave a Window Out: Modifying the Jackknife for Predictive Inference in Time Series	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.65	Unveiling the Visual Counting Bottleneck in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Latent Performance Profiling of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.65	Composing Non-Conjugate Factor Graphs with Closed-Form Variational Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	PassNet: Scaling Large Language Models for Graph Compiler Pass Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.65	EvoRubric: Self-Evolving Rubric-Driven RL for Open-Ended Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Leveraging Routing Dynamics in Mixture-of-Experts Models for Efficient Language Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Distributed Non-Uniform Scaling Control of Multi-Agent Formation with Dynamic Agent Joining	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.65	Learning and Adaptation in Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing Bead Geometry Control	arxiv 2026-05-27	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	FDA BLA103792: HERCEPTIN (TRASTUZUMAB) — GENENTECH	fda 2026-05-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	FDA ANDA216453: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — ELITE LABS INC	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.105.0	github_release 2026-05-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.65	huggingface/transformers v5.9.0	github_release 2026-05-20	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-03-17	240_030 Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	35%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.65	What Happens First: James Bond actor officially announced or Elon Musk a trillionaire?	manifold 2026-06-01	242_003 Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	49%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3?(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2027?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-02	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.65	Bitcoin $82K in June?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Spatial Representation Learning Beyond Pixels: Unifying Raster Data and Vector Semantics for Human-Centric Geospatial Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	S3TS: Stochastic Scenario-Structured Tree Search for Advanced Planning Under Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_058 The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized solar + residential/commercial battery storage will shift power management toward microgrids where local DNOs optimize autonomously, turning millions of ho... Andrew Yang	Energy	52%
0.65	Rethinking Evaluation Paradigms in IBP-based Certified Training	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Extreme Low-Bit Inference in Reasoning Models: Failure Modes and Targeted Recovery	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.65	MMG2Skill: Can Agents Distill In-the-Wild Guides into Self-Evolving Skills?	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	VET: A Framework for Analyzing AI Discourse	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_023 Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive teams rehearse high-stakes presentations using 'Dara AI' — a synthetic, agentic clone of the CEO that pressure-tests narratives and logic before human executive meetings. Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	95%
0.65	VET: A Framework for Analyzing AI Discourse	arxiv 2026-06-01	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	LayerRoute: Input-Conditioned Adaptive Layer Skipping via LoRA Fine-Tuning for Agentic Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	CAPF: Guiding Search-Agent Rollouts with Credit-Attenuated Privileged Feedback	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	Move the Query, Not the Cache: Characterizing Cross-Instance Latent Attention Redistribution Across GPU Fabrics	arxiv 2026-05-31	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.65	TimeBlocks: Foundational and Continual Time-Series Blockbase -- Extended Version	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.65	Quantifying the Energy Floor: Direct Measurement and Replay Buffer Bias in SAC-Based HVAC Control on sbsim	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	IMWM: Intuition Models Complement World Models for Latent Planning	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Cross-Environment Neural Reranking for Sample-Efficient Action Selection in Text-Based Agents	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Cross-lingual Self-Consistency for Multilingual Reasoning with Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-31	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Don't Ask the LLM to Track Freshness: A Deterministic Recipe for Memory Conflict Resolution	arxiv 2026-05-31	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.0	github_release 2021-06-30	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.0	github_release 2021-06-30	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	IND_006 Trajectory of AI development — and by extension future of American economic labor — will be decided by political outcomes rather than purely technical hurdles. Overly restrictive regulatory regimes threaten to stall frontier science and cede global AI ... Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	56%
0.65	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	RREDCoT: Segment-Level Reward Redistribution for Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	HomeWorld: A Unified Floorplan-to-Furnished Framework for Generating Controllable, Densely Interactive Whole-Home Scenes	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Amortizing Federated Adaptation: Hypernetwork Driven LoRA for Personalized Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.65	Retry Policy Gradients in Continuous Action Spaces	arxiv 2026-06-04	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.65	TAPO: Tool-Aware Policy Optimization via Credit Transfer for Multimodal Search Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	DiG-Plan: Mitigating Early Commitment for Tool-Graph Planning via Diffusion Guidance	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Data Flow Control: Data Safety Policies for AI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.65	Fix the Mind, Not the Move: Interpretable AI Assistance via Knowledge-Gap Localization	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	SoCRATES: Towards Reliable Automated Evaluation of Proactive LLM Mediation across Domains and Socio-cognitive Variations	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	The Post-GCN Decade Revisited: Curvature-Stratified Evaluation of Relational Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Compress-Distill: Reasoning Trace Compression for Efficient Knowledge Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Representing Research Attention as Contextually Structured Flows	arxiv 2026-06-04	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.65	Zero-Copy Semantic Contagion: An In-Memory Streaming Architecture for Evolving Attention Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Hybrid CNN-LSTM Framework for Intelligent Cyber Attack Detection and Prevention in U.S. Critical Digital Infrastructure: A Comparative Machine Learning Evaluation on CSE-CIC-IDS2018	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Can We Predict The Human Preference For Text-to-Image Content Prior To Generation And Is It Even Useful To Do So?	arxiv 2026-06-03	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Evidence-Guided Neural Architecture Selection under Uncertainty for Subject-Specific Blood Glucose Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Agentic Monte Carlo: Simulating Reinforcement Learning for Black-Box Agents	arxiv 2026-06-03	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Revising Context, Shifting Simulated Stance: Auditing LLM-Based Stance Simulation in Online Discussions	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Many Circuits, One Mechanism: Input Variation and Evaluation Granularity in Circuit Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	EMBER: Efficient Memory via Budgeted Evidence Retention for Long-Horizon Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	AURA: Intent-Directed Probing for Implicit-Need Surfacing in Situated LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	CHASE: Adversarial Red-Blue Teaming for Improving LLM Safety using Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Activation-Based Active Learning for In-Context Learning: Challenges and Insights	arxiv 2026-06-03	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	Evaluating Large Language Models in Dynamic Clinical Decision-Making with Standardized Patient Cases	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Reproducing, Analyzing, and Detecting Reward Hacking in Rubric-Based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Benchmarking Living-Screen-Native GUI Agents on Short-Video Platforms	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	VOLT: Vision and Language Trajectory Segmentation for Faster-than-Demonstration Policies	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	M3imic: Learning a Versatile Whole-Body Controller for Multimodal Motion Mimicking	arxiv 2026-06-03	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Textual Supervision Enhances Geospatial Representations in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Workflow-to-Skill: Skill Creation via Routing-Workflow-Semantics-Attachments Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Second-Order Path Kernel Interpolation Formulas in Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Sparsely gated tiny linear experts	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	LARA: Latent Action Representation Alignment for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Mission-Level Runtime Assurance Framework for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-05	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	Will Bitcoin be at 71K or higher at end of week?(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-08	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Do Video Foundation Models Understand Intuitive Physics? A Layerwise Probing Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Shape Formation for the Cooperative Transportation of Arbitrary Objects Using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	PhysScene: A Scene Graph Dataset for Scientific Visual Reasoning in Physics Experiments	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	PhysScene: A Scene Graph Dataset for Scientific Visual Reasoning in Physics Experiments	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	A Regret Minimization Framework on Preference Learning in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Report on CHIIR 2026 Workshop on Generative AI and Academic Search (GAI&AS)	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	From Statute to Control Flow: Span-Grounded Deontic Trees for Defeasible Scope Parsing	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.65	Failure-Aware Refinement of Vision-Language Model for Lithography Defect Detection	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Data-driven discovery of governing differential equations across physical systems	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	SNN-MLIR: An MLIR Dialect for Compiling Neuromorphic SNNs from NIR to Bare-Metal C	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Beyond FLOPs: Benchmarking Real Inference Acceleration of LLM Pruning under a GEMM-Centric Taxonomy	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.65	Reformulate LLM Reinforcement Learning for Efficient Training under Black-box Discrepancy	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Discovering and decoding latent mean-field structure with variational autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	What Should a Skill Remember? Quality-Cost Trade-offs in Cost-Aware Skill Rewriting for Language Model Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	230_038 AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	What Should a Skill Remember? Quality-Cost Trade-offs in Cost-Aware Skill Rewriting for Language Model Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	How Far Can Prompting Go for Minimal-Edit Ukrainian Grammatical Error Correction?	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	PaperMentor: A Human-Centered Multi-Agent Writing Tutor for AI Research Papers on Overleaf	arxiv 2026-06-07	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	Analyzing the Correlation Between Hallucinations and Knowledge Conflicts in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Back on Track: Aligning Rewards and States for Reasoning in Diffusion Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	More Yap Less Meaning: Uncovering Self-Improvement Behavior in SLMs	arxiv 2026-06-07	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.65	DexPIE: Stable Dexterous Policy Improvement from Real-World Experience	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	$ω$-EVA: Envision, Verify, and Act with Latent Interactive World Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	VGP-Nav: Metric-Aware Visual Geometric Perception for Robot Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Towards End to End Motion Planning and Execution for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles Using Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Superficial Beliefs in LLM Decision-Making	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.65	Evaluating Research-Level Math Proofs via Strict Step-Level Verification	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.65	Evaluating Research-Level Math Proofs via Strict Step-Level Verification	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	Accelerating NeurASP with vectorization and caching	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Divide and Cooperate: Role-Decomposed Multi-Agent LLM Training with Cross-Agent Learning Signals	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Assessing Automated Prompt Injection Attacks in Agentic Environments	arxiv 2026-06-09	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	44%
0.65	Stop Early, Spend Less: Hidden-State Probes as a Practical Recipe for Streaming Moderation of LLM Outputs	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Beyond Static Evaluation: Co-Evolutionary Mechanisms for LLM-Driven Strategy Evolution in Adversarial Games	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Agentic Hybrid RAG for Evidence-Grounded Muon Collider Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Regimes: An Auditable, Held-Out-Gated Improvement Loop Demonstrated on LongMemEval with ActiveGraph	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	Hyperbolic Neural Population Geometry Benefits Computation	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	SHAPO: Sharpness-Aware Policy Optimization for Safe Exploration	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	A Source Domain is All You Need: Source-Only Cross-OS Transfer Learning for APT Anomaly Detection via Semantic Alignment and Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.65	Accelerating SAV-based optimization via randomized low-rank Hessian approximation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Trading Utility for Dynamic Fairness in Multiple Resource Division with Sequential Demand	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.65	Trading Utility for Dynamic Fairness in Multiple Resource Division with Sequential Demand	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Training LLMs to Enforce Multi-Level Instruction Hierarchies via Gravity-Weighted Direct Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	ParaBridge: Bridging Paralinguistic Perception and Dialogue Behavior in Speech Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	Where You Inject Diversity Matters: A Unified Framework for Diverse Generation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	OpenRTLSet: A Fully Open-Source Dataset for Large Language Model-based Verilog Module Design	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Language-Driven Cost Optimization for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-09	243_012 Liability costs will come down industry-wide with autonomous driving Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.65	An Exposure-Time-Aligned Primary-Path Architecture for Autonomous-Driving ECUs	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	Gradient based Bilevel for Inverse Optimal Control, a Riemannian approach	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	FDA ANDA219395: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-03	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.65	XRP BELOW $1 THIS WEEK?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-10	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.65	Redesign Mixture-of-Experts Routers with Manifold Power Iteration	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Mathematical perspective on genetic algorithms with optimization guided operators	arxiv 2026-06-10	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	Mathematical perspective on genetic algorithms with optimization guided operators	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.65	AutoMine Solution for AV2 2026 Scenario Mining Challenge	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.65	AnchorEdit: Maintaining Temporal Consistency in Multi-turn Image Editing via Causal Memory	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Mind the Perspective: Let's Reason Recursively for Theory of Mind	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	LUCID: Learning Embodiment-Agnostic Intent Models from Unstructured Human Videos for Scalable Dexterous Robot Skill Acquisition	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Pretrained self-supervised speech models can recognize unseen consonants	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	Risk Under Pressure: Compute-Aware Evaluation of Adversarial Robustness in Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	Quantized Stochastic Primal-Dual Methods for Distributed Optimization under Relaxed Global Geometry	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Adjoint Method versus Physics-Informed Neural Networks in PDE-Constrained Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	DAM-VLA: Decoupled Asynchronous Multimodal Vision Language Action model	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	What Uncertainties Do We Need for Dynamical Systems?	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	OmniLoc: A Geometry-Aware Foundation Model for Anchor-Free UE Localization Across Diverse Indoor Environments	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	SwiftCTS: Fast Cross-Design Prediction and Pareto Optimization of Clock Tree Metrics via Few-Shot Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Which Models Are Our Models Built On? Auditing Invisible Dependencies in Modern LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	On The Effectiveness-Fluency Trade-Off In LLM Conditioning: A Systematic Study	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Agreement in Representation Space for Open-Ended Self-Consistency	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Measuring language complexity from hierarchical reuse of recurring patterns	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Quantifying Subliminal Behavioral Transfer Ratios in Language Model Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.65	Quantifying Subliminal Behavioral Transfer Ratios in Language Model Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Learning Unions of Convex Sets via Invertible Latent Decomposition for Path Planning	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Will there be a drone emoji before 2032?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-06-12	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.65	EpiBench: Verifiable Evaluation of AI Agents on Epigenomics Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.65	EpiBench: Verifiable Evaluation of AI Agents on Epigenomics Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.65	Adaptive Turn-Taking for Real-time Multi-Party Voice Agents	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	Adaptive Turn-Taking for Real-time Multi-Party Voice Agents	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	PolyFlow: Safe and Efficient Polytope-Constrained Flow Matching with Constraint Embedding and Projection-free Update	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Can I Buy Your KV Cache?	arxiv 2026-06-11	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	From Verdict to Process: Agentic Reinforcement Learning for Multi-Stage Fact Verification	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_015 The human hiring process becomes progressively distorted as autonomous bot agents actively screen resumes generated by other bot agents, completely removing the human connection required to accurately assess contextual experience — bot-on-bot recursive... Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	86%
0.65	Brick: Spatial Capability Routing for the Mixture-of-Models (MoM) Paradigm	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_001 Single operators utilizing low-cost hardware (e.g., $600 Mac Minis) will be able to replicate the output of entire enterprise teams, drastically reducing the friction of multi-million-dollar software development — leading to total dissolution of middle... Alex Finn	Labor/Jobs	48%
0.65	MARS: Margin-Adversarial Risk-controlled Stopping for Parallel LLM Test-time Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.65	GeoNatureAgent Benchmark: Benchmarking LLM Agents for Environmental Geospatial Analysis Across Frontier and Open-Weight Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.65	LLMs Can Better Capture Human Judgments--With the Right Prompts	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	PI-Hunter: Automated Red-Teaming for Exposing and Localizing Prompt Injections	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.65	Rethinking Psychometric Evaluation of LLMs: When and Why Self-Reports Predict Behavior	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	SMSR: Certified Defence Against Runtime Memory Poisoning in Persistent LLM Agent Systems	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.65	LLM-Powered Personalized Glycemic Assessment in Type 2 Diabetes with Wearable Sensor Data	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.65	Evoflux: Inference-Time Evolution of Executable Tool Workflows for Compact Agents	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.65	Bag of Dims: Training-Free Mechanistic Interpretability via Dimension-Level Sign Patterns	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Majority-of-Three is Optimal	arxiv 2026-06-11	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.65	EPM-JEPA: Operator-Side Experience Modulation in JEPA-Family World Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Normative Robustness as a Frontier for Non-Verifiable Reasoning in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	A Controlled Study of Decoding-Time Truthfulness Methods on Instruction-Tuned LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	RoboProcessBench: Benchmarking Process-Aware Understanding in Vision-Language Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	FDA BLA761458: EXDENSUR (DEPEMOKIMAB-ULAA) — GLAXOSMITHKLINE LLC	fda 2026-06-10	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13?(market prob: 29%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.65	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.65	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.65	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.65	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	241_015 Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioning Eric Schmidt	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.65	Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.65	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.65	Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will the Bitcoin block height increase by 145+ blocks?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-04-29	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.65	How many clicks will The Global Counter have by end of May 2026	manifold 2026-04-29	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.65		gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_044 Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. Peter Diamandis	Space	32%
0.65	roth tipping point why 86 135102407.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.65	elon musk gets an apology from california regulators as a spacex lawsuit is settled	gdelt 2026-04-30	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.65	blame game between ai moguls	gdelt 2026-04-30	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.65		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.65		gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.65	intelligence trust the equation that will decide australias ai winners 625399	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_003 By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence. Sam Altman	AI	23%
0.65	US Gas Price on May 1 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.65	Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-04-29	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 2?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	S&P500 closes at 7,500.00 before End Of May 2026?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-01	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will Bitcoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-01	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will SBF get back into crypto after being released?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-05-03	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 5?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.65	Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley	Energy	46%
0.65	Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.65	Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-04	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.65	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.65	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.65	FDA ANDA207037: OLMESARTAN MEDOXOMIL AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — ALKEM LABS LTD	fda 2026-04-23	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	FDA ANDA212773: IMATINIB MESYLATE (IMATINIB MESYLATE) — EUGIA PHARMA	fda 2026-04-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	FDA ANDA219408: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — SCIEGEN PHARMACEUTICALS INC	fda 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	openai/openai-python v2.7.2	github_release 2025-11-10	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.65	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.88.0	github_release 2026-04-01	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.65	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.21.0	github_release 2026-03-06	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.21.0-rc0	github_release 2026-02-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.17.0	github_release 2024-07-11	246_036 Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt. Peter Diamandis	AI	46%
0.65	pytorch/pytorch v2.7.0	github_release 2025-04-23	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.65	pytorch/pytorch v2.3.0	github_release 2024-04-24	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Will QCOM stock reach $300 by the end of 2026?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-05-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.65	Safety and accuracy follow different scaling laws in clinical large language models	arxiv 2026-05-05	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	The Counterexample Game: Iterated Conceptual Analysis and Repair in Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	MCJudgeBench: A Benchmark for Constraint-Level Judge Evaluation in Multi-Constraint Instruction Following	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	SOAR: Real-Time Joint Optimization of Order Allocation and Robot Scheduling in Robotic Mobile Fulfillment Systems	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	What You Think is What You See: Driving Exploration in VLM Agents via Visual-Linguistic Curiosity	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Before Forgetting, Learn to Remember: Revisiting Foundational Learning Failures in LVLM Unlearning Benchmarks	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	SkCC: Portable and Secure Skill Compilation for Cross-Framework LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.65	LLM-ADAM: A Generalizable LLM Agent Framework for Pre-Print Anomaly Detection in Additive Manufacturing	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	An Empirical Study of Agent Skills for Healthcare: Practice, Gaps, and Governance	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	The Design and Composition of Structural Causal Decision Processes	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Information Plane Analysis of Binary Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.65	Free Decompression with Algebraic Spectral Curves	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	Two Calls, Two Moments, and the Vote-Accuracy Curve of Repeated LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Will the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Impact European Electricity Prices? A GNN-Based Network Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-05	235_024 In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. Alex Wissner-Gross	Energy	31%
0.65	Adaptive Data Compression and Reconstruction for Memory-Bounded EEG Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Effective Performance Measurement: Challenges and Opportunities in KPI Extraction from Earnings Calls	arxiv 2026-05-04	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.65	SigLoMa: Learning Open-World Quadrupedal Loco-Manipulation from Ego-Centric Vision	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Robotic Affection -- Opportunities of AI-based haptic interactions to improve social robotic touch through a multi-deep-learning approach	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	Orchestrating Spatial Semantics via a Zone-Graph Paradigm for Intricate Indoor Scene Generation	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	FDA ANDA218897: VALSARTAN (VALSARTAN) — LAURUS	fda 2026-04-21	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	FDA ANDA215759: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — BIOCON PHARMA	fda 2026-04-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.65	FDA ANDA208055: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — TORRENT	fda 2026-04-13	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	BenCSSmark: Making the Social Sciences Count in LLM Research	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Self-Prompting Small Language Models for Privacy-Sensitive Clinical Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.7	github_release 2021-02-17	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.65	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.4	github_release 2020-01-21	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.65	facebookresearch/faiss v1.8.0	github_release 2024-03-01	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.65	When No Benchmark Exists: Validating Comparative LLM Safety Scoring Without Ground-Truth Labels	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Operator-Guided Invariance Learning for Continuous Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Joint Consistency: A Unified Test-Time Aggregation Framework via Energy Minimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	OPSD Compresses What RLVR Teaches: A Post-RL Compaction Stage for Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.65	Graphlets as Building Blocks for Structural Vocabulary in Knowledge Graph Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	AI-Generated Images: What Humans and Machines See When They Look at the Same Image	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.65	Beyond Autoregressive RTG: Conditioning via Injection Outside Sequential Modeling in Decision Transformer	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Safety Certification is Classification	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.65	Causal Reinforcement Learning for Complex Card Games: A Magic The Gathering Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	SoftSAE: Dynamic Top-K Selection for Adaptive Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	On the Safety of Graph Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	Beyond the Independence Assumption: Finite-Sample Guarantees for Deep Q-Learning under $τ$-Mixing	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Expressivity of Bi-Lipschitz Normalizing Flows: A Score-Based Diffusion Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Towards Steering without Sacrifice: Principled Training of Steering Vectors for Prompt-only Interventions	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	Automated Clinical Report Generation for Remote Cognitive Remediation: Comparing Knowledge-Engineered Templates and LLMs in Low-Resource Settings	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Minimizing Modality Gap from the Input Side: Your Speech LLM Can Be a Prosody-Aware Text LLM	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.65	ReFlect: An Effective Harness System for Complex Long-Horizon LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Belief Memory: Agent Memory Under Partial Observability	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	BALAR : A Bayesian Agentic Loop for Active Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Lie Group Formulation of Recursive Dynamics Algorithms of Higher Order for Floating-Base Robots	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	CKT-WAM: Parameter-Efficient Context Knowledge Transfer Between World Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_019 Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... Demis Hassabis	Robotics	44%
0.65	Track A*: Fast Visibility-Aware Trajectory Planning for Active Target Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-06	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.65	When Life Gives You BC, Make Q-functions: Extracting Q-values from Behavior Cloning for On-Robot Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-06	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	LineRides: Line-Guided Reinforcement Learning for Bicycle Robot Stunts	arxiv 2026-05-06	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.65	AI-Aided Advancements in Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_005 Fundamental convergence between autonomous AI, enterprise software, and global defense infrastructure — future geopolitical supremacy dictated entirely by algorithmic dominance rather than traditional kinetic military assets; autonomous drones, AI-driv... Ben Horowitz	Defense	73%
0.65	Practical validation of synthetic pre-crash scenarios	arxiv 2026-05-06	243_009 Regulation will come into place making autonomous safety case demonstrably superior Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	35%
0.65	What will be my ranking in the Summer Metaculus Cup.	manifold 2026-05-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.65	facebookresearch/spdl v0.0.10	github_release 2025-03-20	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.65	Will I be able to build a bot that achieves #1 on the Gen 9 1v1 ladderboard on Pokemon Showdown before the end of 2026?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-12	233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin	AI	51%
0.65	Beyond Parameter Aggregation: Semantic Consensus for Federated Fine-Tuning of LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.65	Minimax Rates and Spectral Distillation for Tree Ensembles	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	More Edits, More Stable: Understanding the Lifelong Normalization in Sequential Model Editing	arxiv 2026-05-12	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-13	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.65	What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable?	arxiv 2026-05-13	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.65	Scale-Sensitive Shattering: Learnability and Evaluability at Optimal Scale	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.65	RealICU: Do LLM Agents Understand Long-Context ICU Data? A Benchmark Beyond Behavior Imitation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.65	Effective Context in Transformers: An Analysis of Fragmentation and Tokenization	arxiv 2026-05-13	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Vector-Quantized Discrete Latent Factors Meet Financial Priors: Dynamic Cross-Sectional Stock Ranking Prediction for Portfolio Construction	arxiv 2026-05-13	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.65	Teaching and Learning under Deductive Errors	arxiv 2026-05-13	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Neural Surrogate Forward Modelling For Electrocardiology Without Explicit Intracellular Conductivity Tensor	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	When and Why is Optimistic Multiplicative Weights Slow? The Geometry of Energy Dissipation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	A Hybrid Tucker-LSTM Tensor Network Model for SOC Prediction in Electric Vehicles	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	A Hybrid Tucker-LSTM Tensor Network Model for SOC Prediction in Electric Vehicles	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_061 Within approximately 10 years, battery chemistry and pack architecture advances (anchored by CATL Shenxing Pro) will yield electric vehicles traveling ~1,000 miles on a single charge with charging times of ~30-45 minutes. CATL	Auto/Transport	40%
0.65	LLMs as Implicit Imputers: Uncertainty Should Scale with Missing Information	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	DiffusionHijack: Supply-Chain PRNG Backdoor Attack on Diffusion Models and Quantum Random Number Defense	arxiv 2026-05-13	231_017 A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	FeatCal: Feature Calibration for Post-Merging Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.65	FeatCal: Feature Calibration for Post-Merging Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-15	235_035 Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Octopus: History-Free Gradient Orthogonalization for Continual Learning in Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.65	GenAI for Energy-Efficient and Interference-Aware Compressed Sensing of GNSS Signals on a Google Edge TPU	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.65	Action-Inspired Generative Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Scaling Laws from Sequential Feature Recovery: A Solvable Hierarchical Model	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Nexus : An Agentic Framework for Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.65	Towards Real-Time Autonomous Navigation: Transformer-Based Catheter Tip Tracking in Fluoroscopy	arxiv 2026-05-14	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Action-Conditioned Risk Gating for Safety-Critical Control under Partial Observability	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	Self-Regulated Learning in Essay Writing: Consistency of Strategies and Impact on Outcomes	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.65	FDA ANDA063065: MINOCYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MINOCYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — WATSON LABS	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	FDA ANDA217432: FAMOTIDINE (FAMOTIDINE) — LUPIN	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 17?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	Daily Coinflip 🎉(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.65	Spherical Harmonic Optimal Transport: Application to Climate Models Comparisons	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	A note on connections between the Föllmer process and the denoising diffusion probabilistic model	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.65	Real-time Multi-instrument Autonomous Discovery of Novel Phase-change Memory Materials	arxiv 2026-05-18	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.65	Real-time Multi-instrument Autonomous Discovery of Novel Phase-change Memory Materials	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.65	Real-time Multi-instrument Autonomous Discovery of Novel Phase-change Memory Materials	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	RL4RLA: Teaching ML to Discover Randomized Linear Algebra Algorithms Through Curriculum Design and Graph-Based Search	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.65	By when will New Glenn next launch?	manifold 2026-05-29	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.65	GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.65	2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-25	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.65	VideoMLA: Low-Rank Latent KV Cache for Minute-Scale Autoregressive Video Diffusion	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Locally Coherent, Globally Incoherent: Bounding Compositional Incoherence in Multi-Component LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	Reasoning with Sampling: Cutting at Decision Points	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Selective QA over Conflicting Multi-Source Personal Memory: A Diagnostic Testbed and Method Comparison	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Audio Jailbreaks in Large Audio-Language Models: Taxonomy, Attack-Defense Analysis, and Cost-Aware Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.65	RAISE: RAG Design as an Architecture Search Problem	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	Compass: Navigating Global Marine Lead Data Integration through Expert-Guided LLM Agent	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Label Over Logic? How Source Cues Bias Human Fallacy Judgments More Than LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	On the Geometry of Games and their Solvers	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	ESPO: Early-Stopping Proximal Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	ESPO: Early-Stopping Proximal Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.65	Uncertainty-Aware Transfer Learning for Cross-Building Energy Forecasting: Toward Robust and Scalable District-Level Energy Management	arxiv 2026-05-28	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.65	Training Deliberative Monitors for Black-Box Scheming Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	232_044 There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.65	Singularity-aware Optimization via Randomized Geometric Probing: Towards Stable Non-smooth Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.65	UI-KOBE: Knowledge-Oriented Behavior Exploration for Lightweight Graph-Guided GUI Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.65	DeepSurvey: Enhancing Analytical Depth and Citation Reliability in Automated Survey Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	The Curse of Helpfulness: Inverse Scaling Law in Robustness to Distractor Instructions via DistractionIF	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	RL2ML: Finite-Rollout Surrogate Objectives from Reinforcement Learning to Maximum Likelihood	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.65	Chess-World-Model: A 10M-Game Benchmark for Exact State Tracking from Chess Move Sequences	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	The Complexity of Verifying Feedforward Neural Networks in Quantised Settings	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.65	BrahmicTokenizer-131K: An Indic-Capable Drop-In Replacement for o200k_base	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	DirectorBench: Diagnosing Long-Form Video Generation with Personalized Multi-Agent Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Adaptive Interviewing for Persona Simulation in LLMs: Evidence-Grounded Reasoning Improves Decision Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.65	SURGENT: A Surgical Multi-Agent Assistance System Across the Perioperative Workflow	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.65	Casual as an Anchor: Resolving Supervision Misalignment in Formality Transfer Dataset	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.65	FoRA: Fisher-orthogonal Rank Adaptation for Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.65	Prompt-Level Reward Specifications for Open-Ended Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.65	RUBRIC-ARROW: Alternating Pointwise Rubric Reward Modeling for LLM Post-training in Non-verifiable Domains	arxiv 2026-05-27	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.65	SafeRx-Agent: A Knowledge-Grounded Multi-Agent Framework for Safe and Explainable Medication Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.65	PhAIL: A Real-Robot VLA Benchmark and Distributional Methodology	arxiv 2026-05-28	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.65	Multi-Resolution End-to-End Deep Neural Network for Optimizing Latency-Accuracy Tradeoff in Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-05-27	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.65	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.65	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.65	Largest company end of September 2026?	manifold 2026-06-01	245_027 Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026 Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.65	Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-30	246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk	Space	36%
0.65	facebookresearch/neuroai v0.2.2	github_release 2026-05-26	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.65	Bitcoin price on June 30?	manifold 2026-06-02	242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	31%
0.65	Bitcoin price on June 30?	manifold 2026-06-02	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.65	AutoForest: Automatically Generating Forest Plots from Biomedical Studies with End-to-End Evidence Extraction and Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.65	Why Do Time Series Models Need Long Context Windows?	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_046 Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	42%
0.65	Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning of Large Pretrained Models for Instance Segmentation Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.65	Does Compression Preserve Uncertainty? A Unified Benchmark for Quantized and Sparse LLMs via Conformal Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.65	Unveiling the Limits of Large Language Models in Inferring Pragmatic Meaning from Non-Verbal Responses	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.65	ProbeScale: Probing Analysis to Optimize Neural Scaling Laws for Efficient Small Language Model Inference	arxiv 2026-06-01	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.65	Compliance-Scored Best-of-N Guardrail Orchestration for Multimodal Document Generation in Payments Dispute Defense	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%