Validations Queue

94,964 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 275 of 441, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

Pending (total)

94,964

Reviewed

Filtered

88,057

page 275 / 441

Showing on page

200

Filters

URL params control source + min-similarity threshold

Source

All (94964)arxiv (44382)codex_research_pack (134)edgar_8k (3306)fda (4550)gdelt (1218)github_release (3097)manifold (9712)polymarket (28565)

Page size

50 100 200 500

Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

Threshold:Source:Action:

Source0 selected · 0 visible

Bulk action

Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.60	FDA ANDA090535: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — SUN PHARM INDS INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.60	Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	A cross-process welding penetration status prediction algorithm based on unsupervised domain adaptation in laser and TIG welding	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	A welding penetration prediction model for laser welding process based on self-supervised learning using physics-informed neural networks	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Power-Budgeted Underwater Vehicle Control via Constrained Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_016 Power generation is the 'innermost loop' and absolute limiting factor on AI expansion; any AI capability scaling ultimately routes through the speed at which new generation can be brought online. Elon Musk	Energy	57%
0.60	Power-Budgeted Underwater Vehicle Control via Constrained Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Improved Large Language Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	EPTS: Elastic Post-Training Sparsity for Efficient Large Language Model Compression	arxiv 2026-06-24	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	TokenMinds: Pretrained User Tokens and Embeddings for User Understanding in Large Recommender Systems	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Is Variational Monte Carlo Robust? Sharp Moment Thresholds and Heavy-tailed Stochastic Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Efficient Analytic Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Modal Regression	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Minimax PAC Bounds for Learning in Exogenous Contextual MDPs	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.60	Sample complexity of unbalanced entropic OT	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	Learning Dynamical Systems from Multiple Sparse Datasets: A Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Approach	arxiv 2026-06-23	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.60	Tracing Target Answers in Poisoned Retrieval Corpora via Token Influence Attribution	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.60	Security and Privacy in Retrieval-Augmented Generation: Architectures, Threats, Defenses, and Future Directions for Building Trustworthy Systems	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Optimizing Abstractive Summarization With Fine-Tuned PEGASUS	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Fully Differentiable Neural Forced Alignment via Soft Dynamic Programming	arxiv 2026-06-24	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Evaluating Japanese Dialect Robustness Across Speech and Text-based Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Measuring Research Difficulty of Academic Papers: A Case Study in Natural Language Processing	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	61%
0.60	Learning Robot Visual Navigation in Crowds via Intention-Aware Scene Representations	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	DSP-SLAM++: A Unified Framework for Multi-Class, High-Fidelity Object SLAM in the Wild	arxiv 2026-06-24	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.60	MIL-LC: A Robust Magnetometer-Inertial-LiDAR Fusion Multimodal Localization Framework	arxiv 2026-06-24	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.60	Wear-Clearance-Impact Coupling in the Jansen Linkage: A Gait-Durability-Optimized Design Slows Joint Loosening	arxiv 2026-06-23	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.60	FDA ANDA207418: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ASCENT PHARMS INC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	FDA ANDA040110: MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA213479: LEVORPHANOL TARTRATE (LEVORPHANOL TARTRATE) — NOVITIUM PHARMA	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	FDA ANDA215138: BUTALBITAL, ACETAMINOPHEN, CAFFEINE AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ACETAMINOPHEN) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA215138: BUTALBITAL, ACETAMINOPHEN, CAFFEINE AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ACETAMINOPHEN) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Spread: Uruguay (-2.5)(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Fable 5 VS GPT 5.6 Sol: which model will manifold users find to be more useful?	manifold 2026-06-26	235_015 GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Will the official @ManifoldMarkets Twitter/X account post at least two tweets or replies by the end of July 1st?(market prob: 92%)	manifold 2026-06-26	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.60	Inverse Design of Compact and Wideband Inverted Doherty Power Amplifiers Using Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	Confidence-Aware Tool Orchestration for Robust Video Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Bridging Vision and Language Concepts through Optimal Transport Semantic Flow	arxiv 2026-06-25	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Robust Onion: Peeling Open Vocab Object Detectors Under Noise	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Kalman Prototypical Networks for Few-shot Fault Detection in Combined Cycle Gas Turbines	arxiv 2026-06-25	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	NebulaExp-8B: An Empirical Post-Training Pipeline via Full-Scale Ablation Research	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	PMDformer: Patch-Mean Decoupling Information Transformer for Long-term Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-25	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	From Clicks to Intent: Cross-Platform Session Embeddings with LLM-Distilled Taxonomy for Financial Services Recommendations	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.60	Fast algorithms for learning a Gaussian under halfspace truncation with optimal sample complexity	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.60	Explaining Temporal Graph Neural Networks via Feature-induced Information Flow	arxiv 2026-06-25	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Symplectic Neural Networks for learning Generalized Hamiltonians	arxiv 2026-06-25	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Escaping Iterative Parameter-Space Noise: Differentially Private Learning with a Hypernetwork	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Batch-Invariant Spectral Intelligence for Robust and Explainable Insect Authentication	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	FracEvent: Event-Camera Simulation via Fractional-Relaxation Pixel Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	FracEvent: Event-Camera Simulation via Fractional-Relaxation Pixel Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-25	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Learning Probabilistic Filters with Strictly Proper Scoring Rules	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	EMA-FS: Accelerating GBDT Training via Gain-Informed Feature Screening	arxiv 2026-06-24	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	High-Probability PL-SGD with Markovian Noise: Optimal Mixing and Tail Dependence	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Federated Hash Projected Latent Factor Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Towards Explainable Adjudicative Variance: Quantifying Judicial Discretion via Gated Multi-Task Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_006 Trajectory of AI development — and by extension future of American economic labor — will be decided by political outcomes rather than purely technical hurdles. Overly restrictive regulatory regimes threaten to stall frontier science and cede global AI ... Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	56%
0.60	Extracting Problem and Method Sentence from Scientific Papers: A Context-enhanced Transformer Using Formulaic Expression Desensitization	arxiv 2026-06-25	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Extracting Problem and Method Sentence from Scientific Papers: A Context-enhanced Transformer Using Formulaic Expression Desensitization	arxiv 2026-06-25	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	HALO II: Constraining Hubble constant $H_{0}$ through continuum delay fitting of Fairall 9	arxiv 2026-06-25	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.60	Unitarity Cuts, t-channel Divergences and the KLN Theorem for Unstable Particles	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.60	A Circle That Won't Return: The Fate of RR Fluxes and D-branes in Type 0A Tachyon Condensation	arxiv 2026-06-24	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Argentina leading at halftime?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.60	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	ENERGY FUELS INC (UUUU) (CIK 0001385849)	edgar_8k 2026-06-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	FDA ANDA040535: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — WATSON LABS	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.60	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.60	Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis	Space	56%
0.60	Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	How many medium questions will the next LeetCode weekly contest have?	manifold 2026-06-28	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.60	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-08	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.60	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.60	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.60	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.60	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.60	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-03-06	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.60	Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.60	Xi Jinping out before 2027?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.60	Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-04-29	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.60	If there is an EAGxNordics 2027, where will it take place in?	manifold 2026-04-25	CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei	AI	28%
0.60	Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	241_032 World can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scale Eric Schmidt	AI	46%
0.60	266374	gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_011 Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	92%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.60	meta chief zuckerberg doubles down on ai spending	gdelt 2026-04-30	235_014 Sam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constant capability. Sam Altman	AI	51%
0.60	article	gdelt 2026-04-30	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.60	gorilla technology yotta expand india ai infrastructure collaboration in project valued at approximately us2 8 billion	gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_003 The global AI infrastructure buildout is in its earliest phase — only a few hundred billion of a trillions-of-dollars transition has been deployed; Huang calls it the largest infrastructure buildout in human history. Jensen Huang	Macro/Economy	43%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.60	jetblue jblu q1 2026 earnings 155409355.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.60	vig vs hdv growing income 155000719.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	244_016 AV will grow very quickly but remains very small industry today Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	49%
0.60		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.60	Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.60	LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.60	Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	42%
0.60	Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NTLA) (CIK 0001652130)	edgar_8k 2026-04-30	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.60	Spread: Rockets (-3.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.60	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-10	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.60	Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.60	Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship score be tied after game ... ?	manifold 2026-05-01	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.60	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley	AI	42%
0.60	Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	How active will the 2026 Pacific hurricane season be?	manifold 2026-05-02	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.60	Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis	AI	59%
0.60	Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.60	Will Vedanta Aluminium (Vedanta Limited)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.60	Will China's alumina production for calendar year 2027 exceed 85 million tonnes?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.60	Will China's alumina production for calendar year 2027 exceed 85 million tonnes?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_018 SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses. SMIC (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	47%
0.60	Will MIT accept anyone from their 2026 waitlist?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	How many seats will One Nation win in the 2027 NSW state election.	manifold 2026-05-04	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.60	Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.60	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.60	Limitless Markets US approved as a DCM by the CFTC in 2026?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-05	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.60	Chess: Winner of GCT Super Rapid & Blitz 2026	manifold 2026-05-05	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.60	Will my friend Aryan make ARML tb(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-05	242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis	AI	45%
0.60	Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-05	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.60	Will Terminator2 have at least 200 Moltbook followers by 2026-05-18?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.60	Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) (CIK 0001633978)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	FDA ANDA208539: TICAGRELOR (TICAGRELOR) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-04-27	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.60	FDA ANDA079099: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — GLENMARK PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-04-17	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA090124: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — AUROBINDO PHARMA	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	FDA ANDA209348: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — DR REDDYS	fda 2026-04-27	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	FDA NDA216964: IDVYNSO (DORAVIRINE) — MSD	fda 2026-04-20	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	openai/openai-python v2.8.1	github_release 2025-11-17	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.60	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.3	github_release 2022-08-25	230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.60	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.1.1	github_release 2021-11-05	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.60	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.0.1	github_release 2021-09-30	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.60	huggingface/transformers v4.57.5	github_release 2026-01-13	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.60	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.19.0-rc0	github_release 2025-02-24	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.9.1	github_release 2025-11-12	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.9.0	github_release 2025-10-15	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.2.1	github_release 2024-02-22	CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	65%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v1.12.1	github_release 2022-08-05	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.60	facebookresearch/ProgramBench v1.0.0	github_release 2026-05-05	IND_026 Non-coders and engineers alike must build for 'where the models are going, not where they are today' — 'this is the worst the models will ever be'. Next-generation models will 'eat your scaffolding for breakfast'; manual software configuration, standar... Kevin Weil	Labor/Jobs	61%
0.60	1x-technologies/halodi-robot-models 2.3.2	github_release 2020-10-14	229_046 Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once software enables it. Brett Adcock	Robotics	28%
0.60	1x-technologies/halodi-robot-models 2.3.2	github_release 2020-10-14	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.60	Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	45%
0.60	Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.60	Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.60	In which months will there be a day the US gas average is at $4 or below?	manifold 2026-05-06	INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley	Energy	56%
0.60	SERE: Structural Example Retrieval for Enhancing LLMs in Event Causality Identification	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Stage Light is Sequence$^2$: Multi-Light Control via Imitation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	Geometry over Density: Few-Shot Cross-Domain OOD Detection	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	ReasonAudio: A Benchmark for Evaluating Reasoning Beyond Matching in Text-Audio Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	OptiLookUp: An Optical ROM-Based Loop up Table Engine for Photonic Accelerators	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	TOC-SR: Task-Optimal Compact diffusion for Image Super Resolution	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Bolek: A Multimodal Language Model for Molecular Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-04	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	mdok-style at SemEval-2026 Task 10: Finetuning LLMs for Conspiracy Detection	arxiv 2026-05-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.60	Distribution-Free Pretraining of Classification Losses via Evolutionary Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	Rethinking Temporal Consistency in Video Object-Centric Learning: From Prediction to Correspondence	arxiv 2026-05-05	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.60	Exact and Approximate Algorithms for Polytree Learning	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Random test functions, $H^{-1}$ norm equivalence, and stochastic variational physics-informed neural networks	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	A Hierarchical Sampling Framework for bounding the Generalization Error of Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	A Hierarchical Sampling Framework for bounding the Generalization Error of Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	When Prompts Interact: Assessing Prompt Arithmetic for Deconfounding under Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Evaluating Tabular Representation Learning for Network Intrusion Detection	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.60	Reliability-Oriented Multilingual Orthopedic Diagnosis: A Domain-Adaptive Modeling and a Conceptual Validation Framework	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Robust Visual SLAM for UAV Navigation in GPS-Denied and Degraded Environments: A Multi-Paradigm Evaluation and Deployment Study	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.60	Statistics of a multi-factor function from its Fourier transform	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	ORBIT: Learning Gene Program Co-Activation Structure for Cell-Type-Stratified Pathway Rewiring Analysis in Single-Cell Transcriptomics	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Modular flow of Celestial Conformal Field Theory	arxiv 2026-05-05	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.60	FDA NDA218390: INGREZZA SPRINKLE (VALBENAZINE TOSYLATE) — NEUROCRINE	fda 2026-04-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA211506: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-04-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA211531: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — LUPIN	fda 2026-04-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%