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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-07-07 | SEM_040 Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance. Michael Saylor | Finance/Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-07-06 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-07-06 | AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price | Education | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-07-05 | 229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-07-05 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-07-06 | 234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-07-05 | 248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-07-05 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2019-08-26 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | France vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-07-07 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 36% | |
| 0.56 | France vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | France vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Spain vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-07-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-08 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-07-08 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-07-07 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA219565: ADAPALENE (ADAPALENE) — UNIQUE | fda 2026-06-30 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | Canadiens vs. Lightning(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | CMQ_045 Agentic AI will create additional CPU market space of $10B-$100B by 2030, potentially driving total global server CPU market well beyond $100B. Morgan Stanley | Semis | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-27 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-03-26 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Lakers (-4.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-09-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Free Lottery (Monster black hole)(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 24% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Israel attack Iraq in 2030?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | CMQ_012 AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky actually debate @47fucb4r8c69323?(market prob: 93%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 235_023 Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. Eric Schmidt | Energy | 48% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 238_064 AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep trouble Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Pistons vs. Magic(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Oilers vs. Ducks(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.56 | Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-30 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-04-30 | SEM_048 OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition). OpenAI (Sam Altman-led) | AI/Corporate | 80% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-05 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-01 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-01 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | ||
| 0.56 | Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | 76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | |
| 0.56 | Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I place last in Masters Season 37?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 236_040 CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 236_040 CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Pistons (-2.5)(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Santos: Miguel Tobon vs Eduardo Ribeiro(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA091427: PAROXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE (PAROXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA USA | fda 2026-04-06 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA090505: DOXYCYCLINE HYCLATE (DOXYCYCLINE HYCLATE) — IMPAX LABS INC | fda 2026-04-09 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA NDA216964: IDVYNSO (DORAVIRINE) — MSD | fda 2026-04-20 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA090517: VALPROIC ACID (VALPROIC ACID) — QUAGEN | fda 2026-04-17 | 248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2025-08-27 | 235_010 Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2025-08-13 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2020-05-30 | 241_013 Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects Eric Schmidt | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban | Consumer | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA214957: GABAPENTIN (GABAPENTIN) — ASCENT PHARMS INC | fda 2026-04-28 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA214956: GABAPENTIN (GABAPENTIN) — ASCENT PHARMS INC | fda 2026-04-24 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA210456: MULTIPLE VITAMINS INJECTION PEDIATRIC (PHARMACY BULK PACKAGE) (ASCORBIC ACID) — APOTEX | fda 2026-04-21 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA078947: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — TORRENT PHARMS | fda 2026-04-10 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Hurricanes vs. Flyers(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Orbit Anonymo vs Lodis (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_012 Artemis 3 crewed mission to low earth orbit in 2027 (rendezvous/docking tests). Peter Diamandis | Space | 11% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA091541: LOSARTAN POTASSIUM (LOSARTAN POTASSIUM) — MICRO LABS | fda 2026-04-10 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA078324: ESTRADIOL AND NORETHINDRONE ACETATE (ESTRADIOL) — BRECKENRIDGE PHARM | fda 2026-04-21 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA220398: BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE (BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE) — MANKIND PHARMA | fda 2026-04-16 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2023-02-01 | 235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 28% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2025-07-08 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Fight to Go the Distance?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 240_008 NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 26% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 4 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | SPC_002 A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — with roughly one-third defensible solely on proven Starlink + launch cash flow, and remaining two-thirds resting on speculative programs (Starship V3, o... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will the fight be won by submission?(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will https://vivarium.sh/ still exist by EOY2028(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | |
| 0.56 | Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Iga Swiatek(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.56 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | INF_045 Nuclear sector will draw approximately $1.5 trillion in cumulative capital investment through 2050, increasing nuclear's share of global energy supply from ~10% currently to ~17%. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 51% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-10.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will my dahlia tuber sprout?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-03 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.56 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives | Semis/Memory | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives | Semis/Memory | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA BLA761342: TALVEY (TALQUETAMAB-TGVS) — JANSSEN BIOTECH | fda 2026-05-06 | IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang | Biotech/Longevity | 68% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2023-05-22 | 234_051 Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2023-01-07 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2026-04-10 | 234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2025-11-11 | 234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.56 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | test-b(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-13 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Shifters vs Galions - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-11 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Paris: Madison Keys vs Sarah Rakotomanga(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | 237_007 Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer. Alex Finn | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-13 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA NDA019901: ALTACE (RAMIPRIL) — KING PHARMS LLC | fda 2026-05-07 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | FDA BLA761032: SILIQ (BRODALUMAB) — VALEANT LUXEMBOURG | fda 2026-05-07 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA204982: PHENTERMINE HYDROCHLORIDE AND TOPIRAMATE (PHENTERMINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ACTAVIS LABS FL INC | fda 2026-05-01 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA NDA021343: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR | fda 2026-05-06 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2025-10-01 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2025-06-28 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% |