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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt | Education | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 5% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA074521: DIPYRIDAMOLE (DIPYRIDAMOLE) — HIKMA | fda 2026-06-04 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-03-27 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2025-11-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | |
| 0.56 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA205294: DORZOLAMIDE HYDROCHLORIDE (DORZOLAMIDE HYDROCHLORIDE) — FDC LTD | fda 2026-06-10 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-21 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA NDA021131: ZYVOX (LINEZOLID) — PFIZER | fda 2026-06-09 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-03 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-22 | SEM_018 SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses. SMIC (All-In Podcast analysis) | Semis | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 9% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 245_017 Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollars Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will the World Cup winners of this century finish first in their groups?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn | Consumer | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-21 | 240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | 240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis | AI | 8% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-21 | 242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-21 | 240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-21 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA206142: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — NOVEL LABS INC | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2024-07-08 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-23 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | 242_027 Hyperloop will be used largely for commercial/cargo loads, not humans Salim Ismail | Auto/Transport | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | 248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 14% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA206822: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — PHARM ASSOC | fda 2026-06-18 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA218722: SOLRIAMFETOL HYDROCHLORIDE (SOLRIAMFETOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — ALKEM LABS LTD | fda 2026-06-17 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA076003: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — AMNEAL PHARMS | fda 2026-06-18 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA211749: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ALKEM LABS LTD | fda 2026-06-18 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA202935: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA087997: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA | fda 2026-06-18 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA212133: HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ASCENT PHARMS INC | fda 2026-06-18 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-15 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Japan 2 - 3 Sweden?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-25 | SPC_018 Five North America-linked miners — MP Materials, Almonty Industries, Freeport-McMoRan, Alcoa, Teck Resources — are critical dependencies for the emerging space hardware supply chain: copper (regenerative cooling channels, Raptor/BE-4 pressure scaling),... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-24 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-24 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA203573: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — PH HEALTH | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA203573: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — PH HEALTH | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA091440: LEVONORGESTREL AND ETHINYL ESTRADIOL (ETHINYL ESTRADIOL) — LUPIN LTD | fda 2026-06-16 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA202142: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — MIKART | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA203208: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA | fda 2026-06-18 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Will Beşiktaş Gain win Turkey BSL?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 237_024 Skippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transcript (Peter's expectation). Peter Diamandis | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-25 | 238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-25 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-25 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-25 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA089805: ACETAMINOPHEN AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ACETAMINOPHEN) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-26 | SPC_018 Five North America-linked miners — MP Materials, Almonty Industries, Freeport-McMoRan, Alcoa, Teck Resources — are critical dependencies for the emerging space hardware supply chain: copper (regenerative cooling channels, Raptor/BE-4 pressure scaling),... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA077471: HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — GENUS | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA040255: OXYCODONE AND ASPIRIN (ASPIRIN) — ANI PHARMS | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA206456: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — PHARMOBEDIENT | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA211499: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ABHAI LLC | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA091633: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND IBUPROFEN (HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE) — SUN PHARM INDS INC | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs Seattle Orcas(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day in July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-28 | 230_003 AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-29 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the food messages come back from the f.?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 234_029 Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: New York Liberty (-1.5)(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | 2026 World Cup R32: Will France beat Sweden by 2 goals?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-28 | FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb | AI | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-28 | 232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin | Media/Ads | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | 229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-28 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-28 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to Advance(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Brad Ausmus be the next Red Sox manager?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will LeBron James play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Will Austin Reaves play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31?(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | |
| 0.56 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 243_003 By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-07-01 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-07-01 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-30 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-30 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Algeria?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-07-01 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA200503: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — LUPIN LTD | fda 2026-06-18 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA203494: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD | fda 2026-06-18 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA205001: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Paraguay vs. France: O/U 2.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Cary: Jay Dylan Friend vs Braden Shick(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-07-02 | 248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-07-02 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-07-02 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 234_039 Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city Dave Blundin | Real Estate | 26% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-30 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Italy vs. Lithuania(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2025-03-24 | 247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2022-12-06 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Belgium?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Derbyshire(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | France vs. Finland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | United States vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5 Total Corners(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-07-05 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Will a snap election be called in the UK this year?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-06 | 237_016 A specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-06 | 240_058 OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-07-06 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-07-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-07-06 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-07-06 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA NDA207103: IBRANCE (PALBOCICLIB) — PFIZER | fda 2026-06-24 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2021-07-19 | AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen | AI | 52% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-07-07 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% |