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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: B8 vs Alliance (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-21 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% | |
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-01 | INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 17% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-01 | INF_059 Global South energy transitions will follow "energy stacking" rather than substitution patterns — households simultaneously use solar panels (primarily for lighting), biomass, LPG, and grid power, reshaping land use and urbanization in peri-urban Afric... Peter Dannenberg | Energy | 59% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-30 | 232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA202076: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ALKEM LABS LTD | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | FDA NDA220436: NAVITRUX (FOSAPREPITANT) — AVYXA HOLDINGS | fda 2026-06-24 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 28% | |
| 0.57 | Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Ghana: Colombia O/U 1.5(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Morocco (-1.5)(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.57 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 3.5(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-02 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-02 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-02 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-02 | SEM_001 Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI/Compute | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-02 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-02 | CYB_030 Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... Jensen Huang | Space | 33% | ||
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. England: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-07-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. England: Mexico O/U 0.5(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-07-03 | AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey | Crypto | 28% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2024-06-21 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | ||
| 0.57 | United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Belgium?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Belgium?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Derbyshire(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-07-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-07-06 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.57 | World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-01-21 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Silver hit $65 an ounce by close of market Friday?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Silver hit $65 an ounce by close of market Friday?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Do you like 66% odds?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Do you like 66% odds?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-07-06 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-07-06 | 238_068 Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod) Mark Pack Donovan | Macro/Economy | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA040171: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — WATSON LABS | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA210401: ACYCLOVIR (ACYCLOVIR) — YILING | fda 2026-06-24 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 60% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-03 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.57 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy | 57% | |
| 0.57 | Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Massimo Giunta(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.57 | Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 26% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the Vancouver Whitecaps be relocated before the end of 2034?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis | AI | 59% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-28 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | VALVE?!(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz | AI | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.57 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban | Markets/Stocks | 48% | ||
| 0.57 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | CMQ_025 The entire global installed base of data centers must be ripped out and replaced — legacy DCs unfit for AI factory workloads. Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Will US Average Gas Prices rise or fall 10 cents in one day in May 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 242_021 Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today Dave Blundin | Auto/Transport | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Will there be another Crank movie released by the end of 2030?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Sabres vs. Bruins(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 29% | |
| 0.57 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Raptors vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 19% | |
| 0.57 | Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 20% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | |
| 0.57 | Games Total: O/U 3.5(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 29% | |
| 0.57 | 76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | |
| 0.57 | Will Jannik Sinner play in Rome M1000 2026(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?(market prob: 80%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 33% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | |
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | CMQ_024 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy. Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 54% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA091427: PAROXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE (PAROXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA USA | fda 2026-04-06 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.57 | FDA BLA125261: STELARA (USTEKINUMAB) — CENTOCOR ORTHO BIOTECH INC | fda 2026-04-15 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.57 | FDA NDA206709: DIACOMIT (STIRIPENTOL) — BIOCODEX SA | fda 2026-04-15 | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | 15% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA218740: CETRORELIX ACETATE (CETRORELIX ACETATE) — HUMANWELL | fda 2026-04-29 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.57 | FDA NDA217369: ZURZUVAE (ZURANOLONE) — BIOGEN INC | fda 2026-04-20 | IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang | Biotech/Longevity | 68% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA216068: ENZALUTAMIDE (ENZALUTAMIDE) — SANDOZ | fda 2026-04-20 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.57 | FDA BLA761298: PAVBLU (AFLIBERCEPT-AYYH) — AMGEN INC | fda 2026-04-28 | IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang | Biotech/Longevity | 68% | |
| 0.57 | FDA NDA020310: NIZORAL ANTI-DANDRUFF (KETOCONAZOLE) — KRAMER | fda 2026-04-30 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-10-14 | 240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-10-01 | 237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-08-27 | AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy | AI | 90% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-08-13 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2022-01-27 | 240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2020-05-22 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2023-08-30 | CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz | AI | 77% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Knicks (-10.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will GameStop acquire eBay?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 20% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 87% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA210456: MULTIPLE VITAMINS INJECTION PEDIATRIC (PHARMACY BULK PACKAGE) (ASCORBIC ACID) — APOTEX | fda 2026-04-21 | 245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | |
| 0.57 | FDA NDA218390: INGREZZA SPRINKLE (VALBENAZINE TOSYLATE) — NEUROCRINE | fda 2026-04-08 | 245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA210111: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — BRECKENRIDGE | fda 2026-04-27 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA215336: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — AMNEAL | fda 2026-05-06 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA218417: DEXTROMETHORPHAN POLISTIREX (DEXTROMETHORPHAN POLISTIREX) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD | fda 2026-04-15 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA206863: DALFAMPRIDINE (DALFAMPRIDINE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE | fda 2026-04-20 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA210154: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ZYDUS PHARMS | fda 2026-04-27 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA217957: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — UBI | fda 2026-05-06 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA091655: ESCITALOPRAM OXALATE (ESCITALOPRAM OXALATE) — MICRO LABS | fda 2026-04-22 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA219755: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — INVENTIA HEALTHCARE LIMITED | fda 2026-04-09 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 53% | |
| 0.57 | Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Thunder (-14.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey | Crypto | 28% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA BLA761340: EPYSQLI (ECULIZUMAB-AAGH) — SAMSUNG BIOEPIS CO LTD | fda 2026-04-28 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | FDA BLA761349: COSENTYX (SECUKINUMAB) — NOVARTIS PHARMS CORP | fda 2026-04-17 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-04-25 | CYB_004 The Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF) under the Linux Foundation — backed by Dorsey plus major cloud providers and AI labs — will establish vendor-neutral open-governance protocols for agent orchestration, ensuring critical 2030s infrastructure is not monop... Jack Dorsey | AI | 58% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2026-04-26 | 230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.57 | github_release 2025-11-13 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 236_034 Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 54% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA213912: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — MYLAN | fda 2026-04-27 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | |
| 0.57 | UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-02-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% |