Validations Queue

103,108 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 352 of 478, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.59manifold
2026-06-26
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.59manifold
2026-06-26
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
CMQ_027
The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+).
Jensen Huang
AI/Compute92%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
FUT_003
Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
235_034
Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips.
Dave Blundin
Consumer45%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
FUT_003
Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
AI_025
Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps.
Mark Cuban
AI60%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
AUT_017
Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin...
Jimmy Ba
AI65%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
235_005
AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.
Dave Blundin
AI49%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
231_004
The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
INF_035
Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo...
Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)
Semis65%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
229_044
Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks.
Brett Adcock
AI35%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
AUT_002
Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological...
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI59%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
234_048
Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI41%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
CMQ_058
Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency.
Alex Finn
AI/Compute59%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
231_004
The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-25
247_057
Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI41%
0.59polymarket
2026-01-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-25
229_001
Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.
Brett Adcock
Robotics39%
0.59polymarket
2026-04-24
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.59polymarket
2026-02-19
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.59polymarket
2026-02-19
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-15
240_009
Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.59
FDA ANDA202677: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ALVOGEN
fda
2026-06-18
IND_010
Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front...
Jared Isaacman
Biotech/Longevity43%
0.59
FDA ANDA219470: DIPHENHYDRAMINE HYDROCHLORIDE (DIPHENHYDRAMINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ANNORA PHARMA
fda
2026-06-17
COD_BIO_001
FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity47%
0.59
FDA ANDA091609: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — ACTAVIS ELIZABETH
fda
2026-06-18
242_048
FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity36%
0.59polymarket
2026-01-02
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.59
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)(market prob: 12%)
polymarket
2026-06-26
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.59polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics42%
0.59polymarket
2026-01-07
241_042
Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics44%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.59polymarket
2026-04-21
235_008
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.59manifold
2026-06-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-27
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.59polymarket
2026-04-24
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-29
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.59manifold
2026-06-29
240_020
New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI
Dave Blundin
AI46%
0.59manifold
2026-06-29
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.59polymarket
2026-04-20
229_020
By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.
Brett Adcock
Robotics20%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-11
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.59polymarket
2026-04-24
246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics20%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-30
247_002
Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.59manifold
2026-06-30
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-29
AUT_002
Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological...
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI59%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-29
CMQ_058
Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency.
Alex Finn
AI/Compute59%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-29
235_037
Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-29
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-29
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-29
ROB_013
Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g...
Jimmy Ba
Robotics62%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-28
CMQ_055
Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes.
Brett Adcock
Robotics29%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-28
ROB_027
The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ...
Nick Bostrom
AI40%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-28
CYB_027
Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ...
Nick Bostrom
AI50%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-28
232_011
Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI38%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-29
CMQ_063
Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Quantum/AI15%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-29
SEM_033
AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas).
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI/Physics56%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-28
231_004
The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.59github_release
2026-06-29
234_050
Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI42%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-02
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.59polymarket
2026-04-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-22
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.59polymarket
2026-04-24
246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics20%
0.59polymarket
2026-07-01
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.59manifold
2026-07-01
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.59
巴拉圭战胜了德国欸(market prob: 12%)
manifold
2026-06-30
241_028
US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics48%
0.59manifold
2026-06-29
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.59edgar_8k
2026-06-30
SEM_028
Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-30
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-30
231_004
The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI40%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-30
231_047
Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI43%
0.59arxiv
2026-06-30
229_042
Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task.
Brett Adcock
AI40%
0.59
FDA NDA219304: ROMVIMZA (VIMSELTINIB) — DECIPHERA PHARMS
fda
2026-06-26
COD_BIO_002
An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027
Codex Research Pack
Biotech/Longevity50%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-28
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.59
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 33%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.59
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 33%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.59
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)(market prob: 24%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.59
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 13%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.59polymarket
2026-05-13
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.59polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.59
Spread: Portugal (-3.5)(market prob: 5%)
polymarket
2026-06-28
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-25
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.59polymarket
2026-01-02
247_036
Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029
Google
AI46%
0.59polymarket
2026-06-29
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.59polymarket
2026-04-29
246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics20%
0.59manifold
2026-07-02
231_014
Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months.
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.59arxiv
2026-07-01
IND_014
Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach...
Joe Liemandt
Education48%
0.59arxiv
2026-07-01
231_015
Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI34%
0.59arxiv
2026-07-01
235_037
Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.59arxiv
2026-07-01
235_037
Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.59arxiv
2026-07-01
CMQ_042
As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.
Morgan Stanley
AI/Compute35%
0.59
FDA ANDA090707: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — VISTAPHARM LLC
fda
2026-06-18
242_048
FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity36%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-22
SPC_006
Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual revenues exceeding $20 billion — internal cash flow essentially eliminates SpaceX's requirement for public market capital and funds high-risk developme...
SpaceX
Space88%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-31
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-17
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-10
242_033
Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs49%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-09
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2026-03-11
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.58polymarket
2025-06-19
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-10
IND_021
February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte...
Jack Dorsey
Labor/Jobs74%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-10
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-25
235_042
OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics20%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-08
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-17
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
241_027
China will win low-end robotic hardware race
Eric Schmidt
Robotics49%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-16
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-16
242_057
Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission
Peter Diamandis
Space56%
0.58
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)(market prob: 36%)
polymarket
2026-04-28
231_025
Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes).
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI41%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics20%
0.58manifold
2026-04-28
230_001
A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with human as legal puppet).
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI43%
0.58manifold
2026-04-28
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.58manifold
2026-04-26
AUT_012
True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula...
Demis Hassabis
AI38%
0.58manifold
2026-04-25
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58manifold
2026-04-24
241_005
2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.58manifold
2026-04-24
FUT_022
Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking...
Peter Zeihan
Macro/Economy72%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-09
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-08
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.58
gdelt
2026-04-30
TK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10%
0.58gdelt
2026-04-30
236_004
Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.58gdelt
2026-04-30
CMQ_038
Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference.
Micron
Semis/Memory52%
0.58gdelt
2026-04-30
SEM_022
FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.
Dave Blundin
AI/Architecture65%
0.58gdelt
2026-04-30
242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy34%
0.58gdelt
2026-04-30
241_011
By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill
Peter Diamandis
Labor/Jobs47%
0.58gdelt
2026-04-30
TK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25%
0.58gdelt
2026-04-30
238_005
By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI39%
0.58gdelt
2026-04-30
TK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25%
0.58gdelt
2026-04-30
TK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25%
0.58gdelt
2026-04-30
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.58gdelt
2026-04-30
CMQ_056
Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency.
Dario Amodei
AI/Compute19%
0.58gdelt
2026-04-30
242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy34%
0.58
gdelt
2026-04-30
TK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25%
0.58
gdelt
2026-04-30
TK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25%
0.58
gdelt
2026-04-30
TK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-29
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-08
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-17
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-02
241_005
2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58manifold
2026-04-30
230_001
A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with human as legal puppet).
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI43%
0.58manifold
2026-04-30
238_028
Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)
Emad Mostaque
Markets/Stocks31%
0.58edgar_8k
2026-04-30
TK12
Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)
8%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-01
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-30
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-25
242_033
Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032
Dave Blundin
Labor/Jobs49%
0.58polymarket
2025-06-19
245_007
Colossal will bring back the woolly mammoth
Ben Lamm
Biotech/Longevity45%
0.58polymarket
2025-09-17
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.58
Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)
polymarket
2026-05-01
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-11-12
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.58manifold
2026-05-01
CYB_011
Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev...
Alex Finn
Consumer44%
0.58manifold
2026-05-01
243_005
There will be many many winners in the autonomous space
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport47%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-02
229_025
Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.
Brett Adcock
Robotics46%
0.58
Spread: Spurs (-13.5)(market prob: 52%)
polymarket
2026-05-01
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-21
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.58polymarket
2025-12-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Netanyahu out by May 31?(market prob: 0%)
polymarket
2026-04-27
247_002
Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.58polymarket
2026-01-04
232_059
Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy34%
0.58manifold
2026-05-02
229_015
The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.
Brett Adcock
Robotics43%
0.58manifold
2026-05-02
FUT_012
Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...
Ramez Naam
Energy45%
0.58manifold
2026-05-02
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58
Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 36%)
polymarket
2026-05-02
230_006
The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.
Peter Diamandis
AI48%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-22
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-16
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-21
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.58polymarket
2026-04-20
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-01
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.58
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)(market prob: 41%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-28
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.58polymarket
2025-07-28
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.58manifold
2026-05-04
COD_TECH_001
A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps
Codex Research Pack
Semis50%
0.58manifold
2026-05-04
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.58manifold
2026-05-04
INF_048
Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets.
IEA
Energy48%
0.58manifold
2026-05-04
243_028
Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027)
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport41%
0.58manifold
2026-05-04
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.58manifold
2026-05-04
246_031
Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.58manifold
2026-05-04
SEM_002
By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs).
Leopold Aschenbrenner
AI56%
0.58manifold
2026-05-01
241_045
Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win
Eric Schmidt
AI50%
0.58edgar_8k
2026-05-04
240_034
Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028
Morgan Stanley
Energy47%
0.58
Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 36%)
polymarket
2026-05-02
230_006
The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.
Peter Diamandis
AI48%
0.58
Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 36%)
polymarket
2026-05-02
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.58polymarket
2026-05-03
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.58edgar_8k
2026-05-05
238_049
Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028
Peter Diamandis
Auto/Transport55%
0.58edgar_8k
2026-05-05
SEM_028
Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.58edgar_8k
2026-05-04
234_027
Element Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in second half of 2026
Alex Wissner-Gross
Biotech/Longevity42%
0.58edgar_8k
2026-05-04
SEM_011
Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.
Jensen Huang
Capital Markets86%