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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	Symmetric mass generation of interacting chiral fermions on a one-dimensional lattice without fermion doubling	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Canonical quantization for effective theories with higher-derivative perturbations: a covariant phase space approach	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.59	Late-Time Oscillating Quintessence in Light of DESI	arxiv 2026-06-23	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	FDA ANDA076258: FENTANYL-37 (FENTANYL) — MYLAN TECHNOLOGIES	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA211749: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ALKEM LABS LTD	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA211454: MORPHINE SULFATE (MORPHINE SULFATE) — WINDER LABS LLC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.59	Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.59	Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	The Whaleslayer Coinflip V2(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-25	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.59	Highest scoring team in the second round of matches at the World Cup on 25 June?	manifold 2026-06-25	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	First year the US has a public drone light show with 100,000+ drones?	manifold 2026-06-25	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.59	Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in July 2026?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-22	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (SEDG) (CIK 0001419612)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027	compute_scale	60%
0.59	GENERAL ELECTRIC CO (GE) (CIK 0000040545)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	235_031 Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.59	Pulmonary Embolism Risk Stratification from CTPA and Medical Records: Vascular Graphs Are Not All You Need	arxiv 2026-06-24	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Learning Diachronic Representations of Ancient Greek Letterforms	arxiv 2026-06-23	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.59	Learning Diachronic Representations of Ancient Greek Letterforms	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	ConSolv: Solvent-Conditional Machine Learning Implicit Solvent Potential	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Latent Block-Diffusion Temporal Point Processes: A Semi-Autoregressive Framework for Asynchronous Event Sequence Generation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Auto-Configured Explainable Graph Neural Networks for Multi-Site Pollution Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Optimizing Abstractive Summarization With Fine-Tuned PEGASUS	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Hybrid-IR: Dual-Path Hybrid Retrieval with Iterative Reasoning for Complex Medical Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.59	ForceBand: Learning Forceful Manipulation with sEMG	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Klein--Gordon Dynamics from Intrinsic Phase Periodicity	arxiv 2026-06-24	230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.59	FDA ANDA074736: NALOXONE HYDROCHLORIDE AND PENTAZOCINE HYDROCHLORIDE (NALOXONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — WATSON LABS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA NDA022370: CONZIP (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — CIPHER PHARMS INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Will Iraq reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5)(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Spread: Egypt (-4.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Spain leading at halftime?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 3 IR Iran?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Event-Aware Instructed Assistant for Referring Video Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	ReasonCLIP-58M: Visually Grounded Commonsense Reasoning Supervision for CLIP	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	\textsc{DiARC}: Distinguishing Positive and Negative Samples Helps Improving ARC-like Reasoning Ability of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	ProvenAI: Provenance-Native Traces of Evidence in Generated Answers	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	ProvenAI: Provenance-Native Traces of Evidence in Generated Answers	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	RecallRisk-BERT: A Multi-Task Framework for Post-Report Medical Device Recall Triage	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	RecallRisk-BERT: A Multi-Task Framework for Post-Report Medical Device Recall Triage	arxiv 2026-06-25	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.59	Accelerated sampling using SamAdams variable timesteps and position-adaptive Langevin dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Scoring Is Not Enough: Addressing Gaps in Utility-fairness Trade-offs for Ranking	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.59	EMA-FS: Accelerating GBDT Training via Gain-Informed Feature Screening	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Probing Probability Geometry with Schwinger--Dyson Identities: Score Mismatch, Fisher Information, and Configurational Temperature	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.59	Weak-Strong Resurgence Duality	arxiv 2026-06-25	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.59	Symmetries of the Generalized Yang--Baxter Equations	arxiv 2026-06-25	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Lionel Messi: 1+ goals(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.59	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	20%
0.59	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	FDA ANDA205257: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — MYLAN	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA218359: ACETAMINOPHEN AND IBUPROFEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2025-12-04	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.59	Will Stefanos Tsitsipas be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	39%
0.59	Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-22	S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)	mars_uncrewed_landing	50%
0.59	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	What will be the sum of my AP Scores this.July?	manifold 2026-06-27	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.59	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.59	Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-26	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	LoL: VfB eSports vs Team Orange Gaming (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Ecuador leading at halftime?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Valorant: REBORN vs Joblife (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	234_047 Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 416 : Best word competition.(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-30	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	IBRSteG: Learning a Generalizable Steganography Framework for 3D Gaussian Splatting	arxiv 2026-06-29	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Exploiting Local Flatness for Efficient Out-of-Distribution Detection	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	FalconTrack: Photorealistic Auto-Labeled Perception and Physics-Aware Vision-Based Aerial Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-29	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	Rethinking Generative Reconstruction Attacks against Graph Neural Network Models	arxiv 2026-06-29	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.59	A Hybrid Framework For Crypto-Ransomware Detection In Enterprise Shared Storage	arxiv 2026-06-29	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	Doubly Robust Adaptive Conformal Inference for Causal Effects Under Temporal Dependence	arxiv 2026-06-29	S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff	asi_recursive_self_improvement	60%
0.59	Bridging the Gap Between Image Restoration and Navigational Safety in Hazy Conditions: A New Visibility Estimation Metric for Maritime Surveillance	arxiv 2026-06-29	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.59	AMR: Adaptive Modality Routing for Multimodal Polyglot Speaker Identification	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Regime-Aware Peer Specialization for Robust RAG under Heterogeneous Knowledge Conflicts	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	DialogPII: A multilingual dataset of synthetic dialog transcripts to detect personal information	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Realtime Wind Estimation using Low Cost Quadrotor Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles	arxiv 2026-06-29	242_059 Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	45%
0.59	On the Identifiability of Aided Inertial Navigation Under Measurement Delays: A Geometric Approach	arxiv 2026-06-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Quadratic Gauge Transformation	arxiv 2026-06-29	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Understanding Color Confinement through Quantum Reference Frames and Relational Observables	arxiv 2026-06-29	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Pseudo entropy and topological phases of matter	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	FDA ANDA076642: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND IBUPROFEN (HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE) — AMNEAL PHARMS NY	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Will Christian Anderson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.59	Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.59	Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	20%
0.59	Will Austin Reaves play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	What will the peak player count of Destiny 2 on Steam be for December 2026?	manifold 2026-07-01	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.59	How many characters* will I make art of for Art Fight 2025?	manifold 2026-07-01	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	Alcoa Corp (AA) (CIK 0001675149)	edgar_8k 2026-07-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Bit Digital, Inc (BTBT) (CIK 0001710350)	edgar_8k 2026-06-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.59	Sequential RC-TGAN: Generating Relational Time Series with Spectral Envelope Loss	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	WIDER-FAIR: An Annotated Version of the WIDER-FACE Dataset for Fairness Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-30	231_020 Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). Dave Blundin	Consumer	50%
0.59	Histogram-constrained Image Generation	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Histogram-constrained Image Generation	arxiv 2026-06-30	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Hierarchical Clustering As a Novel Solution to the Notorious Multicollinearity Problem in Observational Causal Inference	arxiv 2026-06-30	234_003 Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-09	242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis	Space	49%
0.59	Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	Trump out as President by April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.59	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	236_034 Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.59	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	20%
0.59	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	LoL: Karmine Corp vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.59	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2025-07-24	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.59	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	232_059 Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	34%
0.59	Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Best April 29 Earnings?	manifold 2026-04-29	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	Will I solve an Erdos problem?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-04-27	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.59	Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?	manifold 2026-04-25	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	Will Gavin Newsom formally announce a 2028 presidential campaign before January 1, 2027?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-25	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Which side will win in "The Prediction Market Debate"?	manifold 2026-04-24	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-04-23	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.59	Utah vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	76ers vs. Celtics(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	202604301042556403	gdelt 2026-04-30	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley	AI	42%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59	202604300943375752	gdelt 2026-04-30	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	202604300943375752	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59	LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Trump out as President by May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.59	Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A)(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-30	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-29	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	What is the green mop 2026 cutoff?	manifold 2026-04-27	COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	48%
0.59	Spread: Rockets (-4.5)(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Samsara Inc. (IOT) (CIK 0001642896)	edgar_8k 2026-05-01	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.59	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03?(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	How much mana will be spent buying tickets for the first $100 draw?	manifold 2026-05-02	247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Will the face of Jose Luis Ricon be minted on a physical coin by 2222(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-01	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Conditional on Manifest 2026 having fox-and-hedgehog shirts, how many of 20 random attendees will know the reference?	manifold 2026-05-01	S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033	humanoid_deployment	10%
0.59	will i qualify for arml tiebreaker 2026?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-04-27	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?	manifold 2026-05-03	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-03	236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-03	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.59	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.59	Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_056 Helion will supply OpenAI with 5 gigawatts of fusion electricity by 2030 (roughly 100 Helion 50-MW reactors, equivalent to ~73% of Grand Coulee Dam) — a 100x step-up from Helion's existing Microsoft commitment. Sam Altman	Energy	46%
0.59	Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.59	Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-04	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.59	Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_018 SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses. SMIC (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	47%
0.59	Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.59	How many fives will 2025-2026 Frazer AP Biology get?	manifold 2026-05-04	SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil	AI	41%
0.59	STERLING INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. (STRL) (CIK 0000874238)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.59	Will New York City temperature go up in the next 24h?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-05	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.59	Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.59	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor	Crypto	54%
0.59	Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) (CIK 0001321655)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor	Crypto	54%
0.59	FDA ANDA213829: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — SOMERSET THERAPS LLC	fda 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%