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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 248_026 Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Is Anime For Kids?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 233_012 AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood. Joe Liemandt | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | 248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 14% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 5% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Tadeo Allende win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.56 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.56 | New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-12 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA BLA761458: EXDENSUR (DEPEMOKIMAB-ULAA) — GLAXOSMITHKLINE LLC | fda 2026-06-10 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA219146: GADOBUTROL (GADOBUTROL) — ZENARA | fda 2026-06-08 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 46% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Jews admit that they control the weather before 2030?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.56 | HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-04-14 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 236_010 5% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next day Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-15 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-15 | SEM_040 Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance. Michael Saylor | Finance/Crypto | 48% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2020-03-05 | 238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.56 | Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will greyhound racing be banned in the US by the end of 2027?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Does Saudi Arabia normalize with Israel before December 31 2028?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 16% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 234_014 We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 59% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-16 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-16 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-14 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA NDA016694: DEXTROSE 10% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — BAXTER HLTHCARE | fda 2026-06-11 | 245_031 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadly Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA213568: CEPHALEXIN (CEPHALEXIN) — AUROBINDO PHARMA | fda 2026-06-09 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 243_045 Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | 232_033 Cryptographically strong authentication is the only security technique that will work going forward; biometrics/replay-vulnerable methods won't. Ben Horowitz | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | 241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | 235_015 GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? (market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 229_037 With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. Peter Diamandis | Energy | 21% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 36% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-18 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Trump be in the World Cup Champions Photo? [Polymarket](market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-17 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-17 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | 240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price | Education | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | INF_017 xAI Colossus Phase 2 will consume approximately 1.5 gigawatts of power — city-scale demand for a single facility, making it among the first AI DCs to exceed 1 GW peak draw. Elon Musk | Energy | 48% | ||
| 0.56 | Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 238_051 If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-19 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | 232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin | Media/Ads | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | 232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA BLA761149: ENSPRYNG (SATRALIZUMAB) — GENENTECH | fda 2026-06-10 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-03-27 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-20 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 243_045 Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 241_028 US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 48% | |
| 0.56 | Keir Starmer out before July? (Tumbles Judgement)(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-03 | CMQ_045 Agentic AI will create additional CPU market space of $10B-$100B by 2030, potentially driving total global server CPU market well beyond $100B. Morgan Stanley | Semis | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Erling Haaland: 1+ goals(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Is Roblox YouTuber VanilBean will first time play brawl stars?(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-06-22 | 233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 234_037 Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-22 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-22 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-22 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 238_059 Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-23 | 234_037 Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | 248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-21 | SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 64% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-21 | 235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 26% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-21 | 236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA218016: SOLRIAMFETOL HYDROCHLORIDE (SOLRIAMFETOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA | fda 2026-06-17 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA208795: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA | fda 2026-06-18 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA207709: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — AUROLIFE PHARMA LLC | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA206142: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — NOVEL LABS INC | fda 2026-06-18 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA091357: MORPHINE SULFATE (MORPHINE SULFATE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC | fda 2026-06-18 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.56 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-01 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will GTA 6 cost $100+?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-10 | CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang | Semis | 72% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 241_032 World can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scale Eric Schmidt | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by August 31?(market prob: 92%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | 234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis | AI | 8% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA075759: BUTORPHANOL TARTRATE (BUTORPHANOL TARTRATE) — RISING | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA202935: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL | fda 2026-06-18 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Will Austin Reaves play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 245_008 More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-15 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Japan 1 - 3 Sweden?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 53% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-04 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | ||
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-25 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-24 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | 234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA211023: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — WES PHARMA INC | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 234_009 Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably Alex Wissner-Gross | Defense | 39% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Spain to score first vs. Uruguay?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-25 | CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-24 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA207574: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — SANALUZ | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA219324: LO JUNEL FE (ETHINYL ESTRADIOL) — TEVA PHARMS INC | fda 2026-06-22 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Owen Caissie win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 3 Argentina?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 0.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA201952: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — MICRO LABS LTD INDIA | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA NDA022555: CYSVIEW KIT (HEXAMINOLEVULINATE HYDROCHLORIDE) — PHOTOCURE ASA | fda 2026-06-18 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA218875: ATOMOXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE (ATOMOXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — CREEKWOOD PHARMS | fda 2026-06-16 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA040894: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — GENUS | fda 2026-06-18 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-23 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-28 | CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron | Semis/Memory | 52% | ||
| 0.56 | Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Morocco?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will this century's World Cup winners advance to the round of 16?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-29 | INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-29 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Ecuador?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-23 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% |