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111,300 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 442 of 516, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	FDA ANDA210672: MULTIPLE VITAMINS INJECTION ADULT (ALPHA-TOCOPHEROL ACETATE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-04-09	245_010 Breaking will pursue a human-body microplastic solution (supplement) in addition to environmental plastic degradation Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.57	FDA ANDA205105: METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE) — IMPAX LABS INC	fda 2026-04-21	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.57	FDA BLA125409: PERJETA (PERTUZUMAB) — GENENTECH	fda 2026-04-23	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA090170: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — UNICHEM LABS LTD	fda 2026-04-09	AI_031 AGI will be defined by its ability to autonomously formulate novel scientific hypotheses — effectively solving '100 years of biology' in a fraction of the historical time required, via continuous hypothesis-generation and experimental iteration. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	51%
0.57	FDA ANDA220264: VERICIGUAT (VERICIGUAT) — CHANGZHOU PHARMACEUTICAL FACTORY	fda 2026-04-08	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	FDA ANDA206371: OLMESARTAN MEDOXOMIL AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-04-13	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA090517: VALPROIC ACID (VALPROIC ACID) — QUAGEN	fda 2026-04-17	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	huggingface/transformers v5.6.2	github_release 2026-04-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-cookbook v0.0.4.post1	github_release 2024-09-26	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-verifications v0.1.1	github_release 2025-08-15	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.57	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.17.1	github_release 2024-10-24	CMQ_025 The entire global installed base of data centers must be ripped out and replaced — legacy DCs unfit for AI factory workloads. Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	49%
0.57	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.14.1	github_release 2023-11-14	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	pytorch/pytorch v2.0.1	github_release 2023-05-08	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.57	1x-technologies/halodi-unity-package-registry-manager 1.0.4	github_release 2023-08-29	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	Spread: Spurs (-9.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	20%
0.57	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	229_037 With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. Peter Diamandis	Energy	21%
0.57	Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Group B(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	32%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will GameStop acquire eBay?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	42%
0.57	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	29%
0.57	ViewSAM: Learning View-aware Cross-modal Semantics for Weakly Supervised Cross-view Referring Multi-Object Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	GRPO-TTA: Test-Time Visual Tuning for Vision-Language Models via GRPO-Driven Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-05	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.57	PODiff: Latent Diffusion in Proper Orthogonal Decomposition Space for Scientific Super-Resolution	arxiv 2026-05-05	S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path	agi_general_capability	25%
0.57	Pose Tracking with a Foundation Pose Model and an Ensemble Directional Kalman Filter	arxiv 2026-05-04	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.57	Revisiting Semantic Role Labeling: Efficient Structured Inference with Dependency-Informed Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.57	QCD sum rules: Borel parameter vs. Euclidean time	arxiv 2026-05-05	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	5%
0.57	Parafermionic and decoupled multicritical points in a frustrated $\mathbb{Z}_6$ clock chain	arxiv 2026-05-04	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Landau levels via Jordan superalgebras	arxiv 2026-05-04	232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	FDA NDA218390: INGREZZA SPRINKLE (VALBENAZINE TOSYLATE) — NEUROCRINE	fda 2026-04-08	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	FDA NDA218390: INGREZZA SPRINKLE (VALBENAZINE TOSYLATE) — NEUROCRINE	fda 2026-04-08	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA218441: SITAGLIPTIN (SITAGLIPTIN) — BIOCON PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-01	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA218441: SITAGLIPTIN (SITAGLIPTIN) — BIOCON PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-01	AI_031 AGI will be defined by its ability to autonomously formulate novel scientific hypotheses — effectively solving '100 years of biology' in a fraction of the historical time required, via continuous hypothesis-generation and experimental iteration. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	51%
0.57	FDA NDA220837: EVDI (TRABECTEDIN) — APOTEX	fda 2026-05-01	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	FDA ANDA217957: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — UBI	fda 2026-05-06	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA NDA021977: VYVANSE (LISDEXAMFETAMINE DIMESYLATE) — TAKEDA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-04-23	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA212597: PIRFENIDONE (PIRFENIDONE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA	fda 2026-04-20	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA205772: CALCIPOTRIENE (CALCIPOTRIENE) — GLENMARK SPECLT	fda 2026-04-17	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA ANDA075388: BUSPIRONE HYDROCHLORIDE (BUSPIRONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — OXFORD PHARMS	fda 2026-04-15	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA216327: DILTIAZEM HYDROCHLORIDE (DILTIAZEM HYDROCHLORIDE) — SCIEGEN PHARMS	fda 2026-04-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Luca Nardi(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-07	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will "Taking woo seriously but not literally" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-07	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Distilling Bayesian Belief States into Language Models for Auditable Negotiation	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.57	CAR: Query-Guided Confidence-Aware Reranking for Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.57	FDA ANDA218341: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — UMEDICA LABS PVT	fda 2026-04-29	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA202949: DULOXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE (DULOXETINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-04-09	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA210164: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-04-27	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.57	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.7-rc1	github_release 2021-01-25	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.57	facebookresearch/faiss v1.13.0	github_release 2025-11-12	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.57	facebookresearch/faiss v1.5.3	github_release 2019-06-24	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.57	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.33.post2	github_release 2025-12-03	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Counter-Strike: MIBR fe vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Playoffs(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	39%
0.57	eXplaining to Learn (eX2L): Regularization Using Contrastive Visual Explanation Pairs for Distribution Shifts	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Retina-RAG: Retrieval-Augmented Vision-Language Modeling for Joint Retinal Diagnosis and Clinical Report Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Retina-RAG: Retrieval-Augmented Vision-Language Modeling for Joint Retinal Diagnosis and Clinical Report Generation	arxiv 2026-05-07	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.57	Dynamic Pondering Sparsity-aware Mixture-of-Experts Transformer for Event Stream based Visual Object Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.57	Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-07	230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.57	Revisiting Uncertainty: On Evidential Learning for Partially Relevant Video Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Dr-PoGO: Direct Radar Pose-Graph Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-06	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.57	Perturbative, Nonperturbative and Exact Aspects of Crystalline Phases in the Gross-Neveu Model	arxiv 2026-05-06	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Neutrino Flavor Transformation in Collapsing Supermassive Objects	arxiv 2026-05-05	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.57	FDA BLA761183: TZIELD (TEPLIZUMAB-MZWV) — PROVENTION BIO INC	fda 2026-06-12	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Knicks vs. 76ers(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Will the fight be won by submission?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-04-18	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	@MarySmith attends Manifest '26?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-07	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.57	VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX (VLO) (CIK 0001035002)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	32%
0.57	Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	29%
0.57	Will Marco Rubio ever be President of the United States?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Spread: Thunder (-10.5)(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.57	Spread: Thunder (-11.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.57	LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-10	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.57	Coursera, Inc. (COUR) (CIK 0001651562)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	facebookresearch/Replica-Dataset v1.0	github_release 2019-06-14	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.6	github_release 2025-10-28	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	32%
0.57	Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	What time will my 13 year old son leave the house for his paper round on Wednesday 13th May?	manifold 2026-05-11	229_022 Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.57	What will my Zetamac score (average of 5) be in a week?	manifold 2026-05-11	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	FDA NDA021488: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA NDA021488: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.57	Trump meets Xi Jinping again in 2026?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-05-13	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	CISCO SYSTEMS, INC. (CSCO) (CIK 0000858877)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) (CIK 0001660280)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	245_003 Colossal's $10B valuation is massively undervalued Ben Lamm	Markets/Stocks	30%
0.57	Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) (CIK 0001660280)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC (AKAM) (CIK 0001086222)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.57	Gradient Clipping Beyond Vector Norms: A Spectral Approach for Matrix-Valued Parameters	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.57	Learning U-Statistics with Active Inference	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	EqOD: Symmetry-Informed Stability Selection for PDE Identification	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	FDA ANDA071199: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — BARR	fda 2026-05-05	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.57	Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	32%
0.57	Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Will Starmer contest a leadership challenge?(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-05-14	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.57	How many candidates will take part in the next UK Labour leadership election?	manifold 2026-05-14	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC (AEP) (CIK 0000004904)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	14%
0.57	AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC (AEP) (CIK 0000004904)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	R-DMesh: Video-Guided 3D Animation via Rectified Dynamic Mesh Flow	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Bayesian Nonparametric Mixed-Effect ODEs with Gaussian Processes	arxiv 2026-05-13	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA215826: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA BLA761100: ONTRUZANT (TRASTUZUMAB-DTTB) — SAMSUNG BIOEPIS CO LTD	fda 2026-04-15	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	20%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.57	LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	34%
0.57	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	27%
0.57	Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-05-14	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.57	Globalstar, Inc. (GSAT) (CIK 0001366868)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley	Space	60%
0.57	Multi-Block Attention for Efficient Channel Estimation in IRS-Assisted mmWave MIMO	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.57	FDA BLA761331: WEZLANA (USTEKINUMAB-AUUB) — AMGEN INC	fda 2026-05-12	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA063181: MINOCYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MINOCYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — WATSON LABS TEVA	fda 2026-05-12	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-30	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Vexa vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will I get COVID ten times before getting hantavirus?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-16	236_024 Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressure Andrew Yang	Real Estate	51%
0.57	USA stage of elimination at fifa World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-16	245_020 Screworm will decimate US cattle and bison industry Ben Lamm	Other	45%
0.57	FDA NDA021379: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA077982: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — APOTEX	fda 2026-05-07	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA079204: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — TARO	fda 2026-05-06	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.3.1	github_release 2022-12-21	242_051 Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	24%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.0rc1	github_release 2020-08-18	237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.57	Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.57	Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Biggest AfD–CDU/CSU poll gap in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-17	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Round of 32	manifold 2026-05-17	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	Hamburg European Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Spread: Thunder (-5.5)(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Ebola case in the US by June 30?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Which countries will be designated state sponsors of terrorism by the US at the end of 2027?	manifold 2026-05-18	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.57	Coursera, Inc. (COUR) (CIK 0001651562)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC (AKAM) (CIK 0001086222)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.57	Spurs vs. Thunder(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.57	Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-09-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Who will win the 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff	manifold 2026-05-19	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	New fish species (market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-19	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.57	Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Lost in the Folds: When Cross-Validation Is Not a Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Estimation	arxiv 2026-05-18	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.57	facebookresearch/momentum v0.1.109	github_release 2026-04-12	S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff	asi_recursive_self_improvement	60%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	32%
0.57	Will David Njoku play for Miami Dolphins in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	33%
0.57	Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Spread: Thunder (-2.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-28	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.57	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	F1 2026 Monaco Grand Prix Pole Position	manifold 2026-05-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will the US strike Oman before June 16?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	JD Vance out as VP before...?	manifold 2026-05-28	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	World cup 2026 winner	manifold 2026-05-27	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	World cup 2026 winner	manifold 2026-05-27	COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	48%
0.57	What will trump say this week? May 25th-May 31st (Kalshi)	manifold 2026-05-26	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Ju Wenjun - Vaishali score in the 2026 FIDE Women World Chess Championship	manifold 2026-05-25	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.57	Privacy-Enhanced Zero-Order Federated Learning via xMK-CKKS over Wireless Channels	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	A Triple-Modal Contrastive Learning Framework with Sequence, Graph, and 3D Features for Drug-Target Interaction Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.57	Joint Angle Estimation with Customized Wristband Based on Online Incremental Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.57	Joint Angle Estimation with Customized Wristband Based on Online Incremental Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.57	Black Hole Photon Rings Saturate the Quantum Chaos Bound	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Hypercomplex Yang-Mills Theory as a Bipartite Gauge Field Model	arxiv 2026-05-28	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	FDA NDA208573: VENCLEXTA (VENETOCLAX) — ABBVIE	fda 2026-05-20	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.57	FDA BLA761449: TYENNE (TOCILIZUMAB-AAZG) — FRESENIUS KABI USA	fda 2026-05-20	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	15%
0.57	FDA BLA761111: NYVEPRIA (PEGFILGRASTIM-APGF) — HOSPIRA INC	fda 2026-05-21	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2025-12-04	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	37%