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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.58	Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 79%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.58	Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.58	Will UFC Freedom 250 End Early due to a Disruption/Safety Concern?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-27	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.58	Confirmed Ebola case in North America by EOY 2026?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-25	COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack	Space	43%
0.58	Will Hasan Piker endorse the Democratic candidate in the 2028 election?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-24	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.58	Opir: Efficient Multi-Task Safety Classification for Toxicity, Jailbreaks, Hate Speech, and Harmful Content	arxiv 2026-05-28	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.58	The Sample Complexity of Multiclass and Sparse Contextual Bandits	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Predicting Causal Effects from Natural Language Queries using Structured Representations	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.58	GPS-Enhanced Tourist Mobility Modeling with Seasonal Spatial Priors and LLM-Based Activity Chain Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	242_058 Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	51%
0.58	MELD: Mel-Spectrogram-Based Speech Language Modeling with Discrete Latent Variables	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.58	ReasonOps: Operator Segmentation for LLM Reasoning Traces	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Gate Parameter Lee-Yang Zeros and Dynamical Phases in Quantum Circuits	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.58	Quantum field theory of massive chiral fields	arxiv 2026-05-28	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	FDA ANDA204994: LACOSAMIDE (LACOSAMIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-22	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA ANDA207812: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-05-27	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	FDA BLA761111: NYVEPRIA (PEGFILGRASTIM-APGF) — HOSPIRA INC	fda 2026-05-21	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA ANDA210040: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — AMNEAL PHARMS	fda 2026-05-27	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	Knicks vs. Spurs(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.58	Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Teichmann (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in June 2026?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-31	243_019 Autonomous will become a very big part of developed markets, cost curves will come down Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.58	facebookresearch/detr v0.2	github_release 2020-06-29	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.58	Will David Njoku play for Philadelphia Eagles in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_037 With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. Peter Diamandis	Energy	21%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.58	Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2025-12-29	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.58	Will an Atlantic hurricane (Category 1+) form before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-06-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) (CIK 0001633978)	edgar_8k 2026-06-01	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.58	FDA ANDA210454: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — EUGIA PHARMA	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.58	FDA ANDA217552: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-05-27	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Will Trump's Anti-Weaponization Fund survive its initial challenges(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-01	INF_037 An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintelligence first provides a decisive unassailable economic and military advantage, analogous to early nuclear primacy. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	58%
0.58	Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) (CIK 0001868275)	edgar_8k 2026-06-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Suppressing Forgery-Specific Shortcuts for Generalizable Deepfake Detection	arxiv 2026-06-01	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.58	TrafficRAG: A Multimodal RAG Framework for Traffic Accident Liability Determination	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	IntraShuffler: A Privacy Preserving Framework for Heterogeneous DP Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Realistic noise synthesis reduces bias and improves tissue microstructure estimation with supervised machine learning	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Self-Improving Small Object Grounding in LVLMs	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.58	SN-WER: Script-Normalized WER for Multi-Script Indic ASR Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque	AI	37%
0.58	Beyond Topical Similarity: Contrastive Evidence Retrieval with Interpretable Attention Alignment in RAG	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	HypothesisMed: Inference-Time Answer Fusion and Structured Hypothesis-Space Reporting for Biomedical Question Answering	arxiv 2026-05-31	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.58	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.4	github_release 2023-03-31	AI_017 NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut... Jensen Huang	Semis	75%
0.58	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.2	github_release 2022-06-15	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.58	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.58	Spread: Spurs (-2.5)(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2025-12-15	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.58	Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	39%
0.58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.58	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.58	During Manifest @marysmith will...	manifold 2026-06-04	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.58	During Manifest @marysmith will...	manifold 2026-06-04	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	Atkore Inc. (ATKR) (CIK 0001666138)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.58	FDA ANDA081099: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — BARR	fda 2026-05-27	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.58	Will Jonah Heim win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.58	Spread: Spurs (-4.5)(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.58	Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 754 : Suggest the best expression(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-05	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.58	PAMF: Prior-Aware Multimodal Fusion for Incomplete Time Series Data	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	CaliDist: Calibrating Large Language Models via Behavioral Robustness to Distraction	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	MolE-RAG: Molecular Structure-Enhanced Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Chemistry	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.58	AlloGen: Conformation-Selective Binder Generation with Differential State Scoring	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.58	A Komi-Yazva--Russian Parallel Corpus and Evaluation Protocol for Zero- and Few-Shot LLM Translation	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	FiLM-Based Speaker Conditioning of a SpeechLLM for Pathological Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-04	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.58	Contextualized Prompting For Stance Detection On Social Media	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.58	Forgive or forget: Understanding the context of hate in audio retrieval systems	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Interpreting Style Representations via Style-Eliciting Prompts	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.58	BiasGRPO: Stabilizing Bias Mitigation in High-Variance Reward Landscapes via Group-Relative Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-03	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.58	QO-Bench: Diagnosing Query-Operator-Preserving Retrieval over Typed Event Tuples	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Unpaired RGB-Thermal Gaussian-Splatting Using Visual Geometric Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-03	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.58	BPS Non-Renormalization in the BMN Matrix Model	arxiv 2026-06-03	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	Multi-entropy in random tensor networks	arxiv 2026-06-03	238_069 The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive nation-state/business paths Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	FDA ANDA215356: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-06-03	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA215356: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-06-03	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.58	FDA ANDA218407: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — SUN PHARM INDS INC	fda 2026-06-03	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.58	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	36%
0.58	Best gif competition : Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 416(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-06	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.58	Who will win the 2026 Classic Tetris World Championship (CTWC)?	manifold 2026-06-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.58	Will Tyreek Hill play for the New England Patriots next?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-16	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Spread: Knicks (-2.5)(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.1	github_release 2020-02-07	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.58	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.1	github_release 2020-02-07	242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.1	github_release 2020-02-07	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.58	The Capacity of Information-Theoretic Secure Aggregation in Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.58	No-Harm Physics-Informed Inverse Learning with Residual-Calibrated Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-05	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.58	Deep Single-Index Fréchet Regression	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	TALAN: Task-Aligned Latent Adaptation Networks for Targeted Post-Training of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.58	KIT's Submission to Cross-Lingual Voice Cloning in IWSLT 2026	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Will Tyreek Hill play for the Chicago Bears next?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-16	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #4 Play-In(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	Spread: Spurs (-1.5)(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.58	Schrodinger, Inc. (SDGR) (CIK 0001490978)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will Tyreek Hill play for the Dallas Cowboys next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-16	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 29%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	32%
0.58	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Which 2026 NEWSMAKER will run for president in 2028	manifold 2026-06-09	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.58	Free Mana Part 3:All Options Resolves to YES (you can add answers in alphabetical or numerical form)	manifold 2026-06-09	239_006 AI will solve everything including longevity Elon Musk	AI	45%
0.58	Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. (BAM) (CIK 0001937926)	edgar_8k 2026-06-09	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	Visual Prompting Meets Feature Reconstruction-Based Anomaly Detection with Dual-Teacher Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.58	A Finetuned SpeechLLM for Joint Multi-Granular L2 Assessment and Natural-Language Rationales	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.58	A Universal Dense Football Event Representation Based on TabTransformer	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	Thresholded Local Hyper-Flow Diffusion	arxiv 2026-06-08	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.58	From Genes to Tokens: a GWAS-inspired Approach for Interpretable Stylometric Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.58	NüshuVoice: Reviving the Voice of Endangered Nüshu with Pitch-Aware Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	HydraQE: OSU's Submission for the IWSLT 2026 Speech Translation Metrics Shared Task	arxiv 2026-06-07	237_024 Skippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transcript (Peter's expectation). Peter Diamandis	AI	40%
0.58	Microscopic universal theory of symmetry-enriched topological quantum spin liquids	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.58	Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan(market prob: 79%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.58	Will Maxx Crosby play for Arizona Cardinals next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.58	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Maxx Crosby play for Minnesota Vikings next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.58	Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	2026 FIFA World Cup top 4 variable payout	manifold 2026-06-10	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.58	鹅腿阿姨卖鸭腿事件:市监部门最终会做出哪种处理?(2026/8/31前) / "Goose-leg Auntie" duck-leg case: final penalty?	manifold 2026-06-10	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.58	Null-Space Constrained Low-Rank Adaptation for Response-Specified Large Language Model Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.58	Dep-LLM: Training-Free Depression Diagnosis via Evidence-Guided Structured Multi-factor with Reliable LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.58	One Token per Multimodal Evidence: Latent Memory for Resource-Constrained QA	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.58	MoE Enhanced Federated Learning for Spatiotemporal Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.58	Bidirectional Random Projections	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.58	Temporal Sheaf Neural Networks with Dynamic Orthogonal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.58	From Genes to Tokens: a GWAS-inspired Approach for Interpretable Stylometric Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.58	Wave packets from the spectrum	arxiv 2026-06-08	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	FDA ANDA207961: DABIGATRAN ETEXILATE MESYLATE (DABIGATRAN ETEXILATE MESYLATE) — HETERO LABS LTD III	fda 2026-06-05	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	62%
0.58	FDA ANDA219530: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-06-03	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA219530: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-06-03	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	FDA ANDA072854: CYCLOBENZAPRINE HYDROCHLORIDE (CYCLOBENZAPRINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — AIPING PHARM INC	fda 2026-05-13	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	Will Maya Joint be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.58	Will Kyler Murray be traded?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	ADOBE INC. (ADBE) (CIK 0000796343)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	AI_013 'SaaSpocalypse' — traditional Software-as-a-Service incumbents (Salesforce, Adobe, HubSpot) will see massive sustained declines in market capitalization; AI lowers the barrier to creating bespoke customized software, eliminating the SaaS subscription m... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	29%
0.58	From Uniform to Learned Graph Priors: Diffusion for Structure Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Adjoint Method versus Physics-Informed Neural Networks in PDE-Constrained Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-10	231_047 Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.58	Debiasing Without Protected Attributes: Latent Concept Erasure from Textual Profiles	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.58	StanceNakba Shared Task: Actor and Topic-Aware Stance Detection in Public Discourse	arxiv 2026-06-10	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	32%
0.58	A PubMed-Scale Dataset of Structured Biomedical Abstracts	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	Deformable In-Hand Slip-Aware Tactile Sensor with Integrated Velocity, Force/Torque, and Pressure Map Sensing	arxiv 2026-06-10	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.58	FDA ANDA213511: ELUXADOLINE (ELUXADOLINE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA	fda 2026-06-02	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.58	Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.58	Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.58	LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.58	Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.58	What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-12	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	27%
0.58	MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC (MPWR) (CIK 0001280452)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley	Energy	56%
0.58	Ontology Memory-Augmented ASR Correction for Long Text-Speech Interleaved Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.58	EPIG: Emotion-Based Prompting for Personalised Image Generation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.58	EDEN: A Large-Scale Corpus of Clinical Notes for Italian	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.58	Enhanced Low-Density Region Exploration in Classifier-Guided Diffusion Models Through Modified Reverse Diffusion Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Multi-Label Test-Time Adaptation with Bayesian Conditional Priors	arxiv 2026-06-11	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.58	Multimodal Graph Negative Learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Double copy of form factors with multiple operator insertions	arxiv 2026-06-11	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	Tachyonic Encore: A universal shift of inflationary observables	arxiv 2026-06-10	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Vacuum photon emission and mean electromagnetic field in pair-creating external backgrounds	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.58	Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.58	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.58	Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.58	Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.58	Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.58	Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.58	Will my account be restricted or removed by Monday, June 22?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-15	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.58	Will I reach a streak of 1000?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-06-15	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.58	How far will the Knicks go in the 2026-27 NBA season?	manifold 2026-06-15	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will the Fed cut the federal funds rate at its July 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-14	S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026	macro_recession	20%
0.58	CHART INDUSTRIES INC (GTLS) (CIK 0000892553)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	huggingface/transformers v5.10.3	github_release 2026-06-15	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.58	Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%