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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	Fault of Our Stars: Behavioral Drivers of Rating-Sentiment Incongruence	arxiv 2026-06-24	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.59	Fully Differentiable Neural Forced Alignment via Soft Dynamic Programming	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Towards Structuring an Arabic-English Machine-Readable Dictionary Using Parsing Expression Grammars	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.59	FDA ANDA209624: BOSUTINIB (BOSUTINIB MONOHYDRATE) — MSN	fda 2026-06-12	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Iran full airspace closure by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	Will a commenter post a link to a video showing Micah Lasher doing a magic trick?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-25	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.59	A Latent ODE Approach to Spatiotemporal Modeling of Cine Cardiac MRI	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Explainable Ensemble-Based Machine Learning Models for Detecting the Presence of Cirrhosis in Hepatitis C Patients	arxiv 2026-06-25	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	A Multi-Fidelity Convolutional Autoencoder-Transfer Learning Framework for Guided-Wave-Based Damage Diagnosis Using Large Simulated and Limited Experimental Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Transformer-Based Classification of Bacterial Raman Spectra with LOOCV	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.59	Finding Stationary Points by Comparisons	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.59	Scoring Is Not Enough: Addressing Gaps in Utility-fairness Trade-offs for Ranking	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	EMA-FS: Accelerating GBDT Training via Gain-Informed Feature Screening	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	FlameVQA: A Physically-Grounded UAV Wildfire VQA Benchmark with Radiometric Thermal Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Ordinal Neural Collapse as a Representation Prior for Visual Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.59	FDA ANDA077454: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND IBUPROFEN (HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE) — ANI PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA077454: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND IBUPROFEN (HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE) — ANI PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.59	Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.59	FDA ANDA040545: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA040910: OXYCODONE AND ASPIRIN (ASPIRIN) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.59	Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.59	Will Marin Čilić be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	232_059 Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	34%
0.59	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day in July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-28	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.59	U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? (market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-28	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	50%
0.59	Composer 3 released today?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-29	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.59	Soylent is acquired by an Anthropic employee by EOY 2027(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-29	247_009 Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.59	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-02-17	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-02-17	247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Anna Kalinskaya be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spread: New York Liberty (-2.5)(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-30	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.59	McMg: A Learned Phase-Space Multi-channel Multigrid Preconditioner for Helmholtz Equation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Early Cue Precision Shapes Visual Shortcut Learning in Controlled Cue-Manipulation Benchmarks	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Query-Aware Spreading Activation for Multi-Hop Retrieval over Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-29	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Data-Efficient Multimodal Alignment for Histopathology-based Molecular Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-29	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	CW-B: Class Weighted Boosting Framework for Imbalance Resilient Multi Class Cardiac Phenotyping	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.59	Beyond Triplet Plausibility: Relation Set Completion in Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	ReMAP-PET: Beyond Visual Understanding -- Learning Region-Guided Metabolic Alignment Semantics from Brain PET	arxiv 2026-06-28	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.59	Doubly Robust Adaptive Conformal Inference for Causal Effects Under Temporal Dependence	arxiv 2026-06-29	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Learning the structure of open quantum systems	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Optimizing Nursing Care Taxi Dispatch Leveraging Integer Linear Programming Solvers and Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_008 Uber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group + Nuro manufacturing agreement to deploy up to 20,000 purpose-built autonomous vehicles globally — hybrid human+AV transportation networks will persist 20-30 years due to cur... Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	76%
0.59	Geometric Algebra Meets Cartesian Tensors: Higher-Order Equivariance for Interatomic Potentials	arxiv 2026-06-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	A Mathematical Optimization Approach for Expert-Informed Bayesian Best Subset Selection	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Preference-ASR: A Preference-Aware Test Set for Benchmarking ASR in the Era of Speech LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-28	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	mamabench and mamaretrieval: Benchmarks for Evaluating Medical Retrieval-Augmented Generation in Maternal, Neonatal, and Reproductive Health	arxiv 2026-06-28	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.59	mamabench and mamaretrieval: Benchmarks for Evaluating Medical Retrieval-Augmented Generation in Maternal, Neonatal, and Reproductive Health	arxiv 2026-06-28	245_031 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadly Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.59	MyGO-Splat: Multi-Objective Closed-Loop Geometric Feedback for RGB-Only Gaussian SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-29	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.59	Deformed W-algebras and chiralized cluster seeds: subregular W-algebras and Inverse Quantum Hamiltonian Reduction	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	facebookresearch/ProgramBench v1.2.3	github_release 2026-06-29	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	61%
0.59	Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.59	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.59	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.59	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.59	Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.59	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Callais: Which of these states will use a new congressional map for 2026?	manifold 2026-04-29	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.59	Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TST(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-04-29	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	14%
0.59	Florida Redistricting Before 2026 Midterms?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-04-27	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.59	Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-27	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.59	Will Argentina start another war over the Falklands before April 2027?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-04-26	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will "Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should S..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-26	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Liam mention female ‘tortas’ between April 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM and April 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-04-25	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.59	Will a particular friend of mine crack anyone while at math camp?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-24	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Will I win the main prize in this (second) prize drawing?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-04-23	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Utah vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.59	Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.59	brannin mcbee sells 200000 shares of coreweave nasdaqcrwv stock 2.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	238_052 $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) Elon Musk	Markets/Stocks	24%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	238_068 Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod) Mark Pack Donovan	Macro/Economy	40%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59	usa wyniki gigantow big tech pobily oczekiwania lecz wzbudzily niepokoje o skale wydatkow na ai,1057510.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	article	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	jetblue jblu q1 2026 earnings 155409355.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	246_035 Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel. Peter Diamandis	AI	39%
0.59	1256561.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.59	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	55%
0.59	Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-04-30?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.59	Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-29	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	What is the green mop 2026 cutoff?	manifold 2026-04-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Atlassian Corp (TEAM) (CIK 0001650372)	edgar_8k 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	COD_BIO_004 Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	12%
0.59	Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Android 17 be officially released to consumers by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-05-01	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will I get 90%+ in all my courses this semester?(market prob: 90%)	manifold 2026-05-01	241_047 Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmen Eric Schmidt	Education	51%
0.59	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will USD strengthen against EUR in the next 24h?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs SPARTA (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Jannik Sinner play in Rome M1000 2026(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-03	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.59	Days I'll create a market in May?	manifold 2026-05-02	235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	61%
0.59	Will isaak freeman become a nobel laureate?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil	AI	45%
0.59	Will I speak to a human in the next week?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-04	237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn	AI	41%
0.59	EKSO BIONICS HOLDINGS, INC. (EKSO) (CIK 0001549084)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	CMQ_051 Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla	Robotics	37%
0.59	Am I worthy of moral consideration [Convince the Machine #5](market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-04	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.59	FDA ANDA202426: SITAGLIPTIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-04-30	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	FDA ANDA204687: VALSARTAN AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — SCIEGEN PHARMS	fda 2026-04-23	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA090124: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — AUROBINDO PHARMA	fda 2026-04-15	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.59	FDA ANDA214398: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — LUPIN	fda 2026-04-27	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	FDA ANDA220274: SODIUM ACETATE (SODIUM ACETATE) — EXTROVIS	fda 2026-04-17	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.59	huggingface/transformers v4.57.5	github_release 2026-01-13	239_013 Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every year Elon Musk	Robotics	37%
0.59	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.2.1	github_release 2025-09-03	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.59	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.1.3	github_release 2025-08-13	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.59	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.14.0-rc1	github_release 2023-08-31	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.59	pytorch/pytorch v2.10.0	github_release 2026-01-21	237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.59	pytorch/pytorch v2.0.1	github_release 2023-05-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	US Gas Price hits $4(NO) or $5(YES) Next?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-06	241_021 America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout Eric Schmidt	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	Who will send the most mana to @traders	manifold 2026-05-06	235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	42%
0.59	Will I make positive profit in this season on my alt account this season??(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-04	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	SERE: Structural Example Retrieval for Enhancing LLMs in Event Causality Identification	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.59	PerFlow: Physics-Embedded Rectified Flow for Efficient Reconstruction and Uncertainty Quantification of Spatiotemporal Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.59	Deepfake Audio Detection Using Self-supervised Fusion Representations	arxiv 2026-05-05	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.59	Fine-Grained Graph Generation through Latent Mixture Scheduling	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	mdok-style at SemEval-2026 Task 10: Finetuning LLMs for Conspiracy Detection	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.59	The 2026 ACII Dyadic Conversations (DaiKon) Workshop & Challenge	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	GRAFT: Auditing Graph Neural Networks via Global Feature Attribution	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Contrastive Regularization for Accent-Robust ASR	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Conformalized Percentile Interval: Finite Sample Validity and Improved Conditional Performance	arxiv 2026-05-04	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Pose Tracking with a Foundation Pose Model and an Ensemble Directional Kalman Filter	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	VideoNet: A Large-Scale Dataset for Domain-Specific Action Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Benchmarking Retrieval Strategies for Biomedical Retrieval-Augmented Generation: A Controlled Empirical Study	arxiv 2026-05-04	238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.59	Leveraging Argument Structure to Predict Content Hatefulness	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.59	Decoding-Time Debiasing via Process Reward Models: From Controlled Fill-in to Open-Ended Generation	arxiv 2026-05-04	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.59	TACO: Trajectory Aligning Cross-view Optimisation	arxiv 2026-05-05	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.59	The free energy limit of the SYK model at high temperature	arxiv 2026-05-04	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Comment on `On computing quantum waves exactly from classical action'	arxiv 2026-05-04	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Functional Renormalization Group for a Rank-4 Renormalizable Tensorial Group Field Theory with Derivative Necklace Couplings	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	FDA ANDA203364: MESNA (MESNA) — RISING	fda 2026-04-09	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	FDA ANDA218441: SITAGLIPTIN (SITAGLIPTIN) — BIOCON PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-01	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	FDA NDA209500: CAPLYTA (LUMATEPERONE TOSYLATE) — INTRA-CELLULAR	fda 2026-04-24	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.59	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.59	Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Jordan-RoPE: Non-Semisimple Relative Positional Encoding via Complex Jordan Blocks	arxiv 2026-05-05	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Nsanku: Evaluating Zero-Shot Translation Performance of LLMs for Ghanaian Languages	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Nsanku: Evaluating Zero-Shot Translation Performance of LLMs for Ghanaian Languages	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%