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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Stuttgart 21 open in 2031?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 248_041 Maine data center moratorium gives other states / Elon time to move compute to orbit. Peter Diamandis | Space | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-11 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the Jews admit that they control the weather before 2030?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | INF_021 AI data centers are the 'steel mills of the 21st century' — humanity will miss near-term climate-change mitigation goals, with the bet that a sufficiently capable AI later solves the climate crisis retroactively. Eric Schmidt | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before Europeans?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.57 | Starmer out by the end of this week(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Does Starship flight 150 happen before New Glenn 15?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 242_038 Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Will I get chicken katsu tonight?(market prob: 96%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 243_029 Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban markets Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 48% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-29 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | US-Iran negotiations resume before June 2026? (check description)(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 55% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | VALVE?!(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | 234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin | Defense | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 234_036 Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 29% | ||
| 0.57 | Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-02 | IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail | Macro/Economy | 23% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | AUT_018 Level 1 customer support sector functionally extinct and replaced by autonomous voice/text agents within 2-3 years, slashing operational costs by up to 50%; 2026 industry-defining blockbuster M&A deal exceeding $500 billion in AI sector; substantive ea... Jason Calacanis | Labor/Jobs | 29% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Rudy Giuliani die in 2026?(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 240_003 NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kalshi or Polymarket be convicted of fraud before 2029?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-07 | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Manifold beat me at FTW?(market prob: 87%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 242_004 Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-09 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.57 | Will The_real_LV hit 150 followers on twitch?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 Dara Khosrowshahi | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-08 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-10 | COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | AI | 36% | ||
| 0.57 | Alternate requested FairlyRandom market(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 234_020 AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | Will national dry van spot rate be $2.00–$2.25/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-15 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-16 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-17 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I be a finalist in the 2026 ACX book review contest?(market prob: 23%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil | AI | 41% | |
| 0.57 | Will I get any money again from manifold this year?(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 241_006 Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom Eric Schmidt | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-25 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_AI_PAUSE_2026 Major-country AI pause beginning 2026 | ai_regulatory_pause | 5% | |
| 0.57 | Next James Bond officially announced before end of June 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Free Lottery (Blazar)(market prob: 78%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-02 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.57 | How cheap will fully farm-raised eel get? / 完全養殖ウナギ、いくらまで安くなる？(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis | Energy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Iran fully enrich uranium stockpiles to a level of 90% before July?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | INF_045 Nuclear sector will draw approximately $1.5 trillion in cumulative capital investment through 2050, increasing nuclear's share of global energy supply from ~10% currently to ~17%. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 754 : Suggest the best expression(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-05 | SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.57 | Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 229_043 Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 22% | |
| 0.57 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will I reach a streak of 100 in Wordle?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 229_024 Figure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, 10 million homes on a super-exponential curve. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 41% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | Will the Jews admit that they control the weather before 2030?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 237_011 AI agents will have voices in the near future. Alex Finn | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before Europeans?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-14 | 246_050 Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-15 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-15 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang | Markets/Stocks | 78% | ||
| 0.57 | Free Lottery (cosmic voids)(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-15 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-16 | IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 34% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump Tweet within the next 7 days?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 229_013 The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. Brett Adcock | AI | 73% | ||
| 0.57 | Free Lottery (Monster black hole)(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Sub-1:58 marathon before LA Olympics?(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-03 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-03 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-05-04 | SEM_036 World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 70% | ||
| 0.57 | Will MIT accept anyone from their 2026 waitlist?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% |