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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | FDA ANDA216537: CARBIDOPA AND LEVODOPA (CARBIDOPA) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD | fda 2026-05-08 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-15 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 22nd, 2026?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-18 | AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.60 | edgar_8k 2026-05-18 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi | AI | 61% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt | Defense | 17% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | 229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis | AI | 83% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.60 | github_release 2026-04-26 | CMQ_044 Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 65% | ||
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.60 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.60 | Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 34% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-28 | ROB_009 External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... Elon Musk | Robotics | 18% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-27 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-26 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | 2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.60 | Will GTA VI sell more than 50 million copies by the end of 2027?(market prob: 91%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-05-24 | INF_011 Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 92% | ||
| 0.60 | edgar_8k 2026-05-29 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin | AI/Architecture | 65% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_035 HBM4 16-layer stack design (required for Vera Rubin) places unprecedented yield and capacity strain on global memory fabrication facilities. Jensen Huang / Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.60 | FDA ANDA209224: LACOSAMIDE (LACOSAMIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD | fda 2026-05-22 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.60 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.60 | Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.60 | Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.60 | Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | FDA ANDA208058: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HERITAGE PHARMA AVET | fda 2026-05-14 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.60 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Free Lottery (tidal disruption event)(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | edgar_8k 2026-06-02 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.60 | edgar_8k 2026-06-02 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 26% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price | Education | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | 233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 26% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 52% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 52% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-05-31 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.60 | FDA ANDA219346: ANDA219346 ((unspecified)) — SANDOZ INC | fda 2026-05-12 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.60 | github_release 2021-01-29 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 240_052 Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | ||
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.60 | Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Solana dip to $60 in June?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 243_002 Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 75% | ||
| 0.60 | edgar_8k 2026-06-04 | 245_031 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadly Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | ||
| 0.60 | FDA BLA761069: IMFINZI (DURVALUMAB) — ASTRAZENECA UK LTD | fda 2026-05-28 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.60 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.60 | Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceed 4.0%?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 236_034 Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 76% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price | Education | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin | AI/Architecture | 65% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 64% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06?(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.60 | Will Claude Mythos be released by the end of June 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.60 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026?(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.60 | Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.60 | github_release 2020-07-08 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | 240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 52% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | 245_006 Colossal will productionize species development via biobanking, synthetic biology, automation, AI, computer vision and artificial wombs Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | 248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.60 | Nanterre vs. Monaco(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.60 | can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027(market prob: 13%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis | AI | 59% | |
| 0.60 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.60 | Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | |
| 0.60 | Will Fed (Kevin Warsh) cut interest rates by July 2026?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027 | macro_recession | 30% | |
| 0.60 | Free Lottery (Hubble constant)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.60 | Will Jesus return on November 25 2026(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.60 | edgar_8k 2026-06-09 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt | Education | 48% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will George Pickens play for Atlanta Falcons in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.60 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.60 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque | AI | 66% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil | AI | 63% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 21% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt | Defense | 17% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | AI_007 Technological singularity arrives by 2039 — computing capacity matches the human brain, AI processes the entirety of human knowledge, and human cognition begins to merge with machine intelligence via biological nanobots. Ray Kurzweil | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | AI_033 AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in merely 2 hours/day, achieving learning rates 2.3x faster than statistical models predict — freeing human educators to transition into 'Guides' focused on emotional support, ... MacKenzie Price | Education | 66% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin | AI/Architecture | 65% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz | Semis | 71% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.60 | Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.60 | HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.60 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.60 | Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.60 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 240_007 Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIA Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 38% | ||
| 0.60 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.60 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% |