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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.64	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.25	github_release 2024-03-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.24	github_release 2024-01-31	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Will Waymo's US commercial fleet exceed 12,000 vehicles by Dec 31, 2030?(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-05-08	246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	49%
0.64	Optimizer-Model Consistency: Full Finetuning with the Same Optimizer as Pretraining Forgets Less	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	When and Why SignSGD Outperforms SGD: A Theoretical Study Based on $\ell_1$-norm Lower Bounds	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Market-Alignment Risk in Pricing Agents: Trace Diagnostics and Trace-Prior RL under Hidden Competitor State	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.64	Learning to Cut: Reinforcement Learning for Benders Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	ReasonSTL: Bridging Natural Language and Signal Temporal Logic via Tool-Augmented Process-Rewarded Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Asymmetric On-Policy Distillation: Bridging Exploitation and Imitation at the Token Level	arxiv 2026-05-07	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.64	Memory Efficient Full-gradient Attacks (MEFA) Framework for Adversarial Defense Evaluations	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	A Regime Theory of Controller Class Selection for LLM Action Decisions	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.64	Measuring Black-Box Confidence via Reasoning Trajectories: Geometry, Coverage, and Verbalization	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	TIDE: Every Layer Knows the Token Beneath the Context	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.64	Contrastive Identification and Generation in the Limit	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.64	OPSD Compresses What RLVR Teaches: A Post-RL Compaction Stage for Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Causal Reinforcement Learning for Complex Card Games: A Magic The Gathering Benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Visual Fingerprints for LLM Generation Comparison	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_004 Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... Amy Webb	AI	62%
0.64	CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Sequential Design of Genetic Circuits Under Uncertainty With Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.64	MANTRA: Synthesizing SMT-Validated Compliance Benchmarks for Tool-Using LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	The Frequency Confound in Language-Model Surprisal and Metaphor Novelty	arxiv 2026-05-07	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	More Aligned, Less Diverse? Analyzing the Grammar and Lexicon of Two Generations of LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.64	Beyond Steering Vector: Flow-based Activation Steering for Inference-Time Intervention	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Career-Aware Resume Tailoring via Multi-Source Retrieval-Augmented Generation with Provenance Tracking: A Case Study	arxiv 2026-05-06	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.64	Query2Uncertainty: Robust Uncertainty Quantification and Calibration for 3D Object Detection under Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Active Contact Sensing for Robust Robot-to-Human Object Handover	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.64	Dream-MPC: Gradient-Based Model Predictive Control with Latent Imagination	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Conditional Flow-VAE for Safety-Critical Traffic Scenario Generation	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.64	Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Will any top-20 US or Canadian brokerage publicly endorse an open investing-agent standard by the end of 2027?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $89,000 on May 13?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Enabling AI-Native Mobility in 6G: A Real-World Dataset for Handover, Beam Management, and Timing Advance	arxiv 2026-05-12	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.64	OGLS-SD: On-Policy Self-Distillation with Outcome-Guided Logit Steering for LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	SEMIR: Semantic Minor-Induced Representation Learning on Graphs for Visual Segmentation	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Discrete Flow Matching for Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	SOAR: Scale Optimization for Accurate Reconstruction in NVFP4 Quantization	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Learning What Matters: Adaptive Information-Theoretic Objectives for Robot Exploration	arxiv 2026-05-12	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.64	Beyond Parameter Aggregation: Semantic Consensus for Federated Fine-Tuning of LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	More Edits, More Stable: Understanding the Lifelong Normalization in Sequential Model Editing	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Entropy Polarity in Reinforcement Fine-Tuning: Direction, Asymmetry, and Control	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	EPIC: Efficient Predicate-Guided Inference-Time Control for Compositional Text-to-Image Generation	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	From Generic Correlation to Input-Specific Credit in On-Policy Self Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	EpiCastBench: Datasets and Benchmarks for Multivariate Epidemic Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Hindsight Hint Distillation: Scaffolded Reasoning for SWE Agents from CoT-free Answers	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Will Terminator2 earn more profit than ShogGoth over the next month?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-05-10	240_002 Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.64	Deep Learning as Neural Low-Degree Filtering: A Spectral Theory of Hierarchical Feature Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Strategic PAC Learnability via Geometric Definability	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Continual Learning with Multilingual Foundation Model	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	When and Why is Optimistic Multiplicative Weights Slow? The Geometry of Energy Dissipation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Switching Successor Measures for Hierarchical Zero-shot Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	DiffusionHijack: Supply-Chain PRNG Backdoor Attack on Diffusion Models and Quantum Random Number Defense	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.64	Local Inverse Geometry Can Be Amortized	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Bridging Domain Gaps with Target-Aligned Generation for Offline Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	Large Language Models Lack Temporal Awareness of Medical Knowledge	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Controlling Logical Collapse in LLMs via Algebraic Ontology Projection over F2	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Separating Shortcut Transition from Cross-Family OOD Failure in a Minimal Model	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	Will Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-14	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.64	Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-05-14	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.64	ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC (AMD) (CIK 0000002488)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.64	Self-Distilled Agentic Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	CoCo-InEKF: State Estimation with Learned Contact Covariances in Dynamic, Contact-Rich Scenarios	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	TopoPrimer: The Missing Topological Context in Forecasting Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Known By Their Actions: Fingerprinting LLM Browser Agents via UI Traces	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_026 Autonomous AI agents will execute multi-stage cyberattacks at machine speeds far surpassing the defensive capabilities of human security teams — bad actors will utilize the same multi-agent paradigms that enable legitimate corporate organizations, targ... Alex Finn	Defense	77%
0.64	Peng's Q($λ$) for Conservative Value Estimation in Offline Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Peng's Q($λ$) for Conservative Value Estimation in Offline Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	BioHuman: Learning Biomechanical Human Representations from Video	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.64	Matrix-Space Reinforcement Learning for Reusing Local Transition Geometry	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Paraphrasing Attack Resilience of Various AI-Generated Text Detection Methods	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.64	Towards Fine-Grained and Verifiable Concept Bottleneck Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	To discretize continually: Mean shift interacting particle systems for Bayesian inference	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	FDA BLA125554: OPDIVO (NIVOLUMAB) — BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB	fda 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Change my view: artificial superintelligence is not as serious of a risk as Eliezer Yudkowsky claims it to be.(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-17	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	S&p500 May 2026 prop bets	manifold 2026-05-17	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-01-14	SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	20%
0.64	Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Which US political party will be the more "pro-AI" party at the time of the 2028 presidential debates?	manifold 2026-05-18	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.64	Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028	manifold 2026-05-18	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.64	Will Litecoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-19	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.64	Will "Convergent Abstraction Hypothesis" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-18	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	Will BTC-USD close below $90,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-18	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Top team score for ARML 2026 greater than 235?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Better Together: Evaluating the Complementarity of Earth Embedding Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	A No-Defense Defense Against Gradient-Based Adversarial Attacks on ML-NIDS: Is Less More?	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Pointwise Generalization in Deep Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-18	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	Estimating Item Difficulty with Large Language Models as Experts	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Heterogeneous Tasks Offloading in Vehicular Edge Computing: A Federated Meta Deep Reinforcement Learning Approach	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Graph Hierarchical Recurrence for Long-Range Generalization	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	A Unified Framework for Structured Flow Modeling: From Continuous Fields to Data-Driven Representations	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	LLM-Guided Communication for Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	Protection Is (Nearly) All You Need: Structural Protection Dominates Scoring in Globally Capped KV Eviction	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Protection Is (Nearly) All You Need: Structural Protection Dominates Scoring in Globally Capped KV Eviction	arxiv 2026-05-18	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.64	StatQAT: Statistical Quantizer Optimization for Deep Networks	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Toy Combinatorial Interpretability Models Reveal Lottery Tickets in Early Feature Space	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-28	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	When will the Jacobian challenge be solved in Lean?	manifold 2026-05-29	CMQ_011 AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEFORE reaching AGI — not concurrently, and not after. Demis Hassabis	AI	39%
0.64	Will "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-26	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.64	In-Context Reward Adaptation for Robust Preference Modeling	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Double-Edged Sword or Sharp Tool? Designing and Evaluating Triadic LLM-Teacher Collaboration for K-12 Writing at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	VLA-Trace: Diagnosing Vision-Language-Action Models through Representation and Behavior Tracing	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.64	VisualThink-VLA: Visual Intermediate Reasoning for Effective and Low-Latency Vision-Language-Action Policies	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Compass: Navigating Global Marine Lead Data Integration through Expert-Guided LLM Agent	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.64	Hijacking Agent Memory: Stealthy Trojan Attacks Through Conversational Interaction	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Moment-KV: Momentum-Based Decode-Time KV Cache Compression for Long Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	HARP: Hadamard-Preconditioned Adaptive Rotation Processor for Extreme LLM Quantization	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Why Specialist Models Still Matter: A Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Paradigm for Medical Artificial Intelligence	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	BitTP: The Lightweight Trajectory Prediction Model with BitLLM for Edge-Devices	arxiv 2026-05-28	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.64	From Prompts to Context: An Ontology-Driven Framework for Human-Generative AI Collaboration	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	VLA-Pro: Cross-Task Procedural Memory Transfer for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	MINDGAMES: A Live Arena for Evaluating Social and Strategic Reasoning in Multi-Agent LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Neural Operator-Based Surrogate Model for CFD:Helical Coil Steam Generator in Small Modular Reactor	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.64	Mean-Field Diffuser: Scaling Offline MARL to Thousands of Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	SAHG: Sector-Anisotropic Hyperbolic Graph Model for Social Bot Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	From Short Histories to Long Futures: Horizon-Aware Graph Neural Networks for Long Horizon Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Relational Rank Geometry in Transformers: Detecting and Steering Hidden-State Relation Frames	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	A Full-Pipeline Framework for Evaluating Membership Inference Attacks in Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.64	A Full-Pipeline Framework for Evaluating Membership Inference Attacks in Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	CoHyDE: Iterative Co-Training of LLM Rewriter & Dense Encoder for Tool Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	VideoFDB: Evaluating Full-Duplex Vision-Speech Capabilities in Conversational Agents	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	On Asymmetric Optimization of Reasoning and Perception in Vision-Language Model Post-Training	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	UA-Legal-Bench: A Benchmark for Evaluating Large Language Models on Ukrainian Legal Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-27	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	VLAConf: Calibrated Task-Success Confidence for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Learning and Adaptation in Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing Bead Geometry Control	arxiv 2026-05-27	SPC_021 Relativity Space will revolutionize manufacturing of atmospheric and orbital vehicles by layering AI/ML software with intelligent robotics — drastically reducing part counts and manufacturing latency via autonomous rocket-construction pipelines. Eric Schmidt	Space	45%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.38.0	github_release 2026-05-21	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.64	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.104.1	github_release 2026-05-22	247_060 Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.64	Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2025-12-22	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 1?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	[snigus] Will I convince Destiny that managing AI-risk should be in top 2 policy priority of his?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-31	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.64	FDA ANDA209125: ZOLEDRONIC ACID (ZOLEDRONIC ACID) — EUGIA PHARMA	fda 2026-05-20	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA ANDA213362: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — DAITO	fda 2026-05-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.64	Bitcoin $82K in June?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-02	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.64	AgentPLM: Agentic Protein Language Models with Reasoning-Augmented Decoding for Protein Sequence Design	arxiv 2026-06-01	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.64	Cross-modal linkage risk in clinical vision-language models	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	An Abstract Worlds Semantic Framework for Belief Change Operators	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Where Do Deep-Research Agents Go Wrong? Span-Level Error Localization in Agent Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.64	Topological texture analysis of microscopy images of dynamic casein gelation and its relation to rheological properties	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	HAIM: Human-AI Music Datasets for AI Music Production Tracking Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	On the Limits of Token Reduction for Efficient Unified Vision Language Training	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Towards Automated Discovery: A Review of Generative Models, Multimodal Learning and Closed-Loop Workflows in Inverse Materials Design	arxiv 2026-06-01	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.64	Investigating and Alleviating Harm Amplification in LLM Interactions	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.64	EEG-FuseFormer: A Transformer-Driven Feature Fusion Framework for Seizure Onset Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Provable Data Scaling Law for Meta Learning via Complexity Minimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Learning-based Directed Graph Abstraction of Combinatorial Spaces for Order-Preserving Search in Mixed-Combinatorial Nonlinear Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	K-BrowseComp: A Web Browsing Agent Benchmark Grounded in Korean Contexts	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.64	ResMerge: Residual-based Spectral Merging of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	A Registry-Bound LLM Pipeline for Evidence-Grounded Trait Extraction across Tropical Plants, Aquatic Species, and Exotic Pets	arxiv 2026-05-31	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.64	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.3	github_release 2019-10-14	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.64	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the May 2026 US Core CPI be reported at 0.3% or higher (MoM)?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-03	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	FDA BLA125166: SOLIRIS (ECULIZUMAB) — ALEXION PHARM	fda 2026-06-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will El Niño develop this year? (as declared by NOAA before 1 December 2026)(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-06-04	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.64	Will El Niño develop this year? (as declared by NOAA before 1 December 2026)(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-06-04	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.64	Will Blue Moon be launched on Falcon Heavy ?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-02	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	58%
0.64	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6?(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.64	Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	PC Layer: Polynomial Weight Preconditioning for Improving LLM Pre-Training	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.64	Unsupervised Skill Discovery for Agentic Data Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Boosting Brain-to-Image Decoding with TRIBE v2 Data Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Learning What to Forget: Improving LLM Unlearning via Learned Token-Level Importance	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	AIS-Based Vessel Trajectory Prediction Using Memory-Augmented Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.64	Adapting Diffusion Language Models for Lossless Pixel-Level Image Transmission	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Closing the Loop on Latent Reasoning via Test-Time Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	Learning Visual Spatial Planning from Symbolic State via Modality-Gap-Aware Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	When Should Memory Stay Silent: Measuring Memory-Use Boundaries in Memory-Augmented Conversational Agents	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Compositional Boundaries for Density Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	LLMCodec: Adapting Video Codecs for Efficient Weight Compression of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.64	CollabBench: Benchmarking and Unleashing Collaborative Ability of LLMs with Diverse Players via Proactive Engagement	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.64	Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Action Conditional Guarantee	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	TailLoR: Protecting Principal Components in Parameter-Efficient Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Causal Atlases from Entropic Inference: Bayesian Networks beyond Optimal DAGs	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	A Machine Learning-Based Framework for Discovering Huntington's Disease Stages: Integrating Graph Representation Learning and clustering to Uncover Progression Dynamics in Longitudinal Enroll-HD Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	Selective-Advantage Entropy-Adaptive Horizon GRPO: Asymmetric Token-Level Discounting for Efficient Reinforcement Learning of Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Agentic Monte Carlo: Simulating Reinforcement Learning for Black-Box Agents	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Ouvia: A User-centered Framework for Measuring Usability of Speech Translation in Real-World Communication Scenarios	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	English-to-Prakrit Machine Translation via Multilingual Transfer Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Evaluating Stochastic Collapse and Implicit Bias in Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Membrane: A Self-Evolving Contrastive Safety Memory for LLM Agent Defense	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	CHASE: Adversarial Red-Blue Teaming for Improving LLM Safety using Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	LoRi: Low-Rank Distillation for Implicit Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-03	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	LoRi: Low-Rank Distillation for Implicit Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Activation-Based Active Learning for In-Context Learning: Challenges and Insights	arxiv 2026-06-03	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Reproducing, Analyzing, and Detecting Reward Hacking in Rubric-Based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	VentAgent: When LLMs Learn to Breathe -- Multi-Objective Arbitration for ARDS Ventilation	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	AffordanceVLA: A Vision-Language-Action Model Empowering Action Generation through Affordance-Aware Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	PiL-World: A Chunk-Wise World Model for VLA Policy-in-the-Loop Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Learning from Demonstrations over Riemannian Manifolds using Neural ODEs: An Extended Abstract	arxiv 2026-06-03	SPC_021 Relativity Space will revolutionize manufacturing of atmospheric and orbital vehicles by layering AI/ML software with intelligent robotics — drastically reducing part counts and manufacturing latency via autonomous rocket-construction pipelines. Eric Schmidt	Space	45%
0.64	3DThinkVLA: Endowing Vision-Language-Action Models with Latent 3D Priors via 3D-Thinking-Guided Co-training	arxiv 2026-06-03	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.64	When Freshness Is Not Enough: Distribution-Aware Age of Information for Networked LQR Control	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 6?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-06-05	234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.64	facebookresearch/differentiable-robot-model v0.2.2	github_release 2022-03-15	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.64	facebookresearch/differentiable-robot-model v0.2.2	github_release 2022-03-15	242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	facebookresearch/differentiable-robot-model v0.2.1	github_release 2022-02-15	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.64	Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Sparse Subspace-to-Expert Sharing for Task-Agnostic Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Online Pandora's Box for Contextual LLM Cascading	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	StainFlow: Entity-Stain Tracking and Evidence Linking for Process Rewards in GUI Agents	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Didact: A Cross-Domain Capability Discovery System for Defence	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	ThinkBooster: A Unified Framework for Seamless Test-Time Scaling of LLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Neuro-Symbolic Learning for Long-Horizon Task Planning Under Complex Logical Constraints	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Characterize Then Distill: Mechanistic Reasoning in Large Output Spaces	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Think Like a Pilot: Fine-Grained Long-Horizon UAV Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Time series Foundation Models based on Physics-Informed Synthetic Histories for Cold-Start Photovoltaic Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-05	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.64	The Proxy Benders Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Closed-Form Spectral Regularization for Multi-Task Model Merging	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Geodesics of Dynamic Graphs for Regime Change Detection	arxiv 2026-06-05	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.64	RASFT: Rollout-Adaptive Supervised Fine-Tuning for Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Evidence-Grounded Ensemble Diagnosis of 802.11 Packet Captures: A Multi-Stage Pipeline with Deterministic Reliability Scoring	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.64	The Dark Regulome: Disentangling Predictability from Regulation in Genomic Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	Test-Time Trajectory Optimization for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-05	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.64	Mission-Level Runtime Assurance Framework for Autonomous Driving	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	What will be the lowest value Bitcoin reaches in 2027?	manifold 2026-06-09	231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail	Crypto	48%
0.64	FASE: Fast Adaptive Semantic Entropy for Code Quality	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Brain-Prompt Injection: A Route-Safety Audit for BCI-LLM Agents	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.64	Late-Layer Fusion is Enough: Dual-Path Vision Token Routing for Multimodal Large Language Models under Visual Saturation	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	AlloSpatial: Agentic Harness Framework for Spatial Reasoning in Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Report on CHIIR 2026 Workshop on Generative AI and Academic Search (GAI&AS)	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.64	Order Matters: Unveiling the Hidden Impact of Macro Placement Sequences via Proxy-Guided LLM Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-08	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	ZIPP:Zero-shot Image Personalization from Personas	arxiv 2026-06-07	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.64	Scaling Decision-Focused Learning to Large Problems with Lagrangian Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Rethinking the Divergence Regularization in LLM RL	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Escaping the KL Agreement Trap in On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Beyond FLOPs: Benchmarking Real Inference Acceleration of LLM Pruning under a GEMM-Centric Taxonomy	arxiv 2026-06-08	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Active Flow Expansion for Out-of-Distribution Discovery: from Theory to Molecules	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.64	Hierarchical Projection for Adaptive Knowledge Transfer	arxiv 2026-06-07	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	How Much Capacity Does EEG Denoising Need? Ultra-Compact Networks reveal Benchmark Saturation and Metric-Utility Gap	arxiv 2026-06-07	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.64	Routine laboratory trajectories encode the onset of organ-level complications in cancer	arxiv 2026-06-07	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.64	Autonomous Aerial Manipulation via Contextual Contrastive Meta Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	IS-CoT: Breaking the Long-form Generation Collapse via Interleaved Structural Thinking	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Introducing multiplex semantic networks as multifaceted representations of creative associative knowledge across multilingual samples	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	One Model, Multiple Goals: Adaptive Multi-Objective Learning for E-commerce Dialogue Systems	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	Ishigaki-IDS: An Open-Weight Verifier-Aware Model for Information Delivery Specification Drafting in Building Information Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Hacking Generative Perplexity: Why Unconditional Text Evaluation Needs Distributional Metrics	arxiv 2026-06-07	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.64	Real-Time and Accurate Collision-Free Teleoperation via Differentiable Constraint-Based Trajectory Planning	arxiv 2026-06-07	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.64	PhysGraph: A Physics-aware 3D Scene Graph for Perception and Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	EgoPriMo: Egocentric Motion Generation for Interactive Humanoid Control	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.64	Will OpenAI or Google announce an release a reduction to image generation filters around nudity by EOY 2027?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-10	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	The Role of Feedback Alignment in Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Optimizing 2D Input Representations and Sub-phase Fusion Strategies for Differential Diagnosis of Asthma and COPD Using CNN- and GRU-Based Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Democratising Camera Trap AI: An Open-Source Model for Detecting UK Mammals	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.64	Embedding Hybrid Systems into Continuous Latent Vector Fields	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	The Confident Liar: Diagnosing Multi-Agent Debate with Log-Probabilities and LLM-as-Judge	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	Pareto-Guided Teacher Alignment for Fair Personalized Text Generation	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.64	Conservation Laws from Data Symmetry in Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	N-GRPO: Embedding-Level Neighbor Mixing for Enhanced Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Toward Proactive RF Charging Scheduling: Generative AI for Decision Support	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Convergence Rates for Neural-Network Estimation with Current-Status Data	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.64	SoK: Colluding Adversaries in Machine Learning Pipelines	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	CodeAlchemy: Synthetic Code Rewriting at Scale	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.64	Where You Inject Diversity Matters: A Unified Framework for Diverse Generation	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.64	Act on What You See: Unlocking Safe Social Navigation in Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Identical Bosons, large occupation numbers and classical field description	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.64	NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) (CIK 0001413447)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	SEM_020 Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	74%
0.64	CCKS: Consensus-based Communication and Knowledge Sharing	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.64	Making Foresight Actionable: Repurposing Representation Alignment in World Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.64	Non-frontal face recognition using GANs and memristor-based classifiers	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	"That's AI Slop, You Bot!" Studying Accusations, Evidence, and Credibility in Online Discourse Towards LLM-Generated Comments	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Generalization Hacking: Models Can Game Reinforcement Learning by Preventing Behavioral Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	AutoMine Solution for AV2 2026 Scenario Mining Challenge	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Blind Dexterous Grasping via Real2Sim2Real Tactile Policy Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Fast Speech Foundation Model Distillation Using Interleaved Stacking	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Automated Creativity Evaluation of Language Models Across Open-Ended Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	MoCA-Agent: A Market-of-Claims Code Agent for Financial and Numerical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	MoCA-Agent: A Market-of-Claims Code Agent for Financial and Numerical Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_007 The technology sector is crossing a $1 trillion computing inflection point transitioning from retrieval to reasoning/agentic AI — however the subsequent wave, 'Physical AI' for industrial and robotics applications, represents a vastly larger $50 trilli... Jensen Huang	Robotics	41%
0.64	ISE: An Execution-Grounded Recipe for Multi-Turn OS-Agent Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	LSTM-Based Detection of Structural Breaks in Property Insurance Loss Reserving: A Climate-Informed Approach	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_007 Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.64	Beyond Dark Knowledge: Mixup-Based Distillation for Reliable Predictions	arxiv 2026-06-10	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Beyond the Golden Teacher: Enhancing Graph Learning through LLM-GNN Co-teaching	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	SPADE: Split-and-Delay Embeddings for Autoregressive High-Granularity Calorimeter Simulation	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Verifiable Environments Are LEGO Bricks: Recursive Composition for Reasoning Generalization	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	On The Effectiveness-Fluency Trade-Off In LLM Conditioning: A Systematic Study	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Can News Predict the Market? Limits of Zero-Shot Financial NLP and the Role of Explainable AI	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.64	Adaptive Multi-Resolution Procedural Knowledge Compression for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	KinematicRL: A Sim-to-Real Reinforcement Learning Framework For Social Navigation With Kinodynamic Feasibility	arxiv 2026-06-10	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.64	VICX: Generalizable Robot Manipulation via Video Generation and In-Context Operator Network	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	HiPi: Reproducible High-Fidelity Piezoresistive Sensors for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-20	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.64	CloudCons: A Comprehensive End-to-End Benchmark for Cloud Resource Consolidation	arxiv 2026-06-11	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.64	From Verdict to Process: Agentic Reinforcement Learning for Multi-Stage Fact Verification	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.64	Reasoning for Mobile User Experience with Multimodal LLMs: Task, Benchmark, and Approach	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	G-Long: Graph-Enhanced Memory Management for Efficient Long-Term Dialogue Agents	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.64	"Is This Not Enough?": Asymmetries in Institutional Accountability and Collective Sensemaking in the Case of Canada's Algorithmic Visa Triage System	arxiv 2026-06-11	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.64	LLMs Can Better Capture Human Judgments--With the Right Prompts	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.64	The Theory of Mind Utility: Formal Specification of a Mentalizing Mechanism	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	HybridCodeAuthorship: A Benchmark Dataset for Line-Level Code Authorship Detection	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.64	Graph Reduction in Multirelational Networks: A Spreading-Oriented Reduction Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	MaskWAM: Unifying Mask Prompting and Prediction for World-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Reinforcement Learning for Neural Model Editing	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	S-GBT: Smooth Growth Bound Tensor for Certified Robustness Against Word Substitution Attacks in NLP	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Positional Encoding in the Context of Memristor-Based Analog Computation for Automatic Speech Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Quantizing Time-Series Models As Dynamical Systems: Trajectory-Based Quantization Sensitivity Score	arxiv 2026-06-11	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Clipping Makes Distributed and Federated Asynchronous SGD Robust to Stragglers	arxiv 2026-06-11	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.64	The Geometry of Phase Transitions in Generative Dynamics via Projection Caustics	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Quantum Reservoir Computing for Short-Term Power Load Forecasting in Resource-Constrained Energy Systems	arxiv 2026-06-11	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.64	Fed-FBD: Federated Functional Block Diversification for Isolation, Privacy, and Surgical Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.64	Viral Proteins Reveal Geometry of Protein Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.64	MÖVE: A Holistic LLM Benchmark for the German Public Sector	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Multi-Turn Reasoning When Context Arrives in Pieces: Scalable Sharding and Memory-Augmented RL	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Agent-based models for the evolution of morphological alternation patterns	arxiv 2026-06-10	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.64	MARD: Mirror-Augmented Reasoning Distillation for Mechanism-Level Drug-Drug Interaction Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-10	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	NavWAM: A Navigation World Action Model for Goal-Conditioned Visual Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	FTP-1: A Generalist Foundation Tactile Policy Across Tactile Sensors for Contact-Rich Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-11	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.64	FTP-1: A Generalist Foundation Tactile Policy Across Tactile Sensors for Contact-Rich Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Blind Dexterous Grasping via Real2Sim2Real Tactile Policy Learning	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	FDA ANDA203047: VALACYCLOVIR HYDROCHLORIDE (VALACYCLOVIR HYDROCHLORIDE) — HETERO LABS LTD V	fda 2026-06-10	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2025-11-25	237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis	AI	59%
0.64	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.64	Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	242_004 Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.64	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.64	Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.64	AUM of all prediction market ETFs by end of August 2026	manifold 2026-04-29	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.64	Will a Waymo self-driving car be involved in a fatal accident before July 1, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-27	246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	49%
0.64	this market will resolve to yes if it closes with a greater than 50% chance of resolving to yes(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-04-24	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.64	1964864	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.64		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	big us tech stocks swing 214147047.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.64	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-14	INF_011 Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	92%
0.64	US Gas Price on May 1 2026?	manifold 2026-04-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 1?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Price of WTI by evening of May 31, 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.64	Price of WTI by evening of May 31, 2026?	manifold 2026-05-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 6?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_032 Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Washington state household electricity costs rose 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 directly tied to infrastructure strain, with utility-proposed rate increases projecting residential price... Seattle Met / Washington State regulators	Macro/Economy	54%
0.64	Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-04	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.64	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.64	Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	FDA NDA021366: CRESTOR (ROSUVASTATIN CALCIUM) — ASTRAZENECA	fda 2026-04-29	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA BLA125261: STELARA (USTEKINUMAB) — CENTOCOR ORTHO BIOTECH INC	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	FDA ANDA207110: BOSENTAN (BOSENTAN) — WATSON LABS INC	fda 2026-04-14	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.64	openai/openai-python v2.28.0	github_release 2026-03-13	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.64	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.77.0	github_release 2026-01-29	231_001 Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.64	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.0	github_release 2022-03-10	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.64	huggingface/transformers v5.5.0	github_release 2026-04-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	huggingface/transformers v5.4.0	github_release 2026-03-27	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.17.0-rc1	github_release 2024-07-02	246_036 Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt. Peter Diamandis	AI	46%
0.64	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.17.0-rc0	github_release 2024-06-18	246_036 Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt. Peter Diamandis	AI	46%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Tailored Prompts, Targeted Protection: Vulnerability-Specific LLM Analysis for Smart Contracts	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Self-Improvement for Fast, High-Quality Plan Generation	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Adaptive Dual-Path Framework for Covert Semantic Communication	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	APEX: Large-scale Multi-task Aesthetic-Informed Popularity Prediction for AI-Generated Music	arxiv 2026-05-05	232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.64	Global and Local Topology-Aware Attention with Persistent Homology and Euler Biases for Time-Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint	arxiv 2026-05-04	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.64	Bolek: A Multimodal Language Model for Molecular Reasoning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Learning Equivariant Neural-Augmented Object Dynamics From Few Interactions	arxiv 2026-05-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Nora: Normalized Orthogonal Row Alignment for Scalable Matrix Optimizer	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	GEM-FI: Gated Evidential Mixtures with Fisher Modulation	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Most ReLU Networks Admit Identifiable Parameters	arxiv 2026-05-05	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.64	Trust, but Verify: Peeling Low-Bit Transformer Networks for Training Monitoring	arxiv 2026-05-04	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.64	Sharpness-Aware Pretraining Mitigates Catastrophic Forgetting	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_005 Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at international mathematics olympiads while simultaneously failing rudimentary arithmetic and spatial logic; true AGI requires smoothing these jagged edges via continual learning, d... Demis Hassabis	AI	83%
0.64	SAGA: A Robust Self-Attention and Goal-Aware Anchor-based Planner for Safe UAV Autonomous Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Elicitation Matters: How Prompts and Query Protocols Shape LLM Surrogates under Sparse Observations	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.35	github_release 2026-02-20	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.64	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.29	github_release 2024-12-27	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28.post1	github_release 2024-09-13	229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock	AI	77%
0.64	Is Escalation Worth It? A Decision-Theoretic Characterization of LLM Cascades	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	A Regime Theory of Controller Class Selection for LLM Action Decisions	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	The Weight Gram Matrix Captures Sequential Feature Linearization in Deep Networks	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Continuous Expert Assembly: Instance-Conditioned Low-Rank Residuals for All-in-One Image Restoration	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Towards Reliable LLM Evaluation: Correcting the Winner's Curse in Adaptive Benchmarking	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.64	Hedging Memory Horizons for Non-Stationary Prediction via Online Aggregation	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.64	Diversity Curves for Graph Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Preliminary Insights in Chronos Frequency Data Understanding and Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Matrix-Valued Optimism is Matrix-Valued Augmentation: Additive Hybrid Designs for Constrained Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.64	On the Emergence of Pendular Structure in Multi-Contact Locomotion	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Adaptive Q-Chunking for Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Track A*: Fast Visibility-Aware Trajectory Planning for Active Target Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-06	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.64	AI-Aided Advancements in Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-06	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.64	Time-Fractional Schrödinger Evolution in Coupled Double Quantum Dots: Memory Effects on Quantum Resources	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	FDA ANDA213912: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — MYLAN	fda 2026-04-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.64	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.64	Which of the following will be true about this market as of 2026-05-26 13:00 UTC? [Add answers]	manifold 2026-05-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.64	Will Elon Musk say the word “misanthropic” again before the end of 2027?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-06	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.64	Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) (CIK 0001758009)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 14?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will I be able to build a bot that achieves #1 on the Gen 9 1v1 ladderboard on Pokemon Showdown before the end of 2026?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-12	229_014 Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion. Brett Adcock	Robotics	35%
0.64	Routers Learn the Geometry of Their Experts: Geometric Coupling in Sparse Mixture-of-Experts	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	High-arity Sample Compression	arxiv 2026-05-12	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	TextSeal: A Localized LLM Watermark for Provenance & Distillation Protection	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.64	Discrete Flow Matching for Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.64	A New Technique for AI Explainability using Feature Association Map	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.64	Autoregressive Learning in Joint KL: Sharp Oracle Bounds and Lower Bounds	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	Autoregressive Learning in Joint KL: Sharp Oracle Bounds and Lower Bounds	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	ECTO: Exogenous-Conditioned Temporal Operator for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Missing Old Logits in Asynchronous Agentic RL: Semantic Mismatch and Repair Methods for Off-Policy Correction	arxiv 2026-05-12	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Rethink the Role of Neural Decoders in Quantum Error Correction	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.64	Split the Differences, Pool the Rest: Provably Efficient Multi-Objective Imitation	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Adaptive TD-Lambda for Cooperative Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	GEAR: Granularity-Adaptive Advantage Reweighting for LLM Agents via Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.64	More Edits, More Stable: Understanding the Lifelong Normalization in Sequential Model Editing	arxiv 2026-05-12	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.64	Shaping Zero-Shot Coordination via State Blocking	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	SoK: Unlearnability and Unlearning for Model Dememorization	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.64	Fast MoE Inference via Predictive Prefetching and Expert Replication	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	FERMI: Exploiting Relations for Membership Inference Against Tabular Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Efficient and provably convergent end-to-end training of deep neural networks with linear constraints	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.64	How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?	manifold 2026-05-13	235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.64	Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-13	237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.64	Toward AI-Driven Digital Twins for Metropolitan Floods: A Conditional Latent Dynamics Network Surrogate of the Shallow Water Equations	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Tight Sample Complexity Bounds for Entropic Best Policy Identification	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	Children's English Reading Story Generation via Supervised Fine-Tuning of Compact LLMs with Controllable Difficulty and Safety	arxiv 2026-05-13	233_004 AI will be able to bootstrap four-year-olds into reading within roughly 18 months. Joe Liemandt	AI	35%
0.64	Learning Local Constraints for Reinforcement-Learned Content Generators	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.64	Self-Supervised On-Policy Reinforcement Learning via Contrastive Proximal Policy Optimisation	arxiv 2026-05-13	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.64	Temper and Tilt Lead to SLOP: Reward Hacking Mitigation with Inference-Time Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	TurboGR: An Accelerated Training System for Large-Scale Generative Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	Discrete Diffusion for Complex and Congested Multi-Agent Path Finding with Sparse Social Attention	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	Delightful Exploration	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.64	When and Why is Optimistic Multiplicative Weights Slow? The Geometry of Energy Dissipation	arxiv 2026-05-13	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.64	AcquisitionSynthesis: Targeted Data Generation using Acquisition Functions	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.64	JEDI: Joint Embedding Diffusion World Model for Online Model-Based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 16?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Widening the Gap: Exploiting LLM Quantization via Outlier Injection	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	Composable Crystals: Controllable Materials Discovery via Concept Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Video2GUI: Synthesizing Large-Scale Interaction Trajectories for Generalized GUI Agent Pretraining	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Spontaneous symmetry breaking and Goldstone modes for deep information propagation	arxiv 2026-05-14	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Discovering Physical Directions in Weight Space: Composing Neural PDE Experts	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Dynamic Latent Routing	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	Not All Timesteps Matter Equally: Selective Alignment Knowledge Distillation for Spiking Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.64	Will Bitcoin trade above $90,000 between now and June 1, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-16	247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor	Crypto	48%
0.64	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in November?	manifold 2026-05-16	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.64	FDA NDA021731: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 18?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will Bitcoin hit $73,000 or $83,000 first?	manifold 2026-05-18	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.64	Will I be in a serious, potentially-long-term relationship by the end of 2026?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-18	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.64	Will Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) close above $85,000 on June 1, 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-16	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.64	Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) (CIK 0001758009)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.64	Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.64	Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?(market prob: 83%)	manifold 2026-05-19	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	54%
0.64	General Preference Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Better Together: Evaluating the Complementarity of Earth Embedding Models	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	CATA: Continual Machine Unlearning via Conflict-Averse Task Arithmetic	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Perfect Parallelization in Mini-Batch SGD with Classical Momentum Acceleration	arxiv 2026-05-18	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.64	Dynamic robotic cloth folding with efficient Koopman operator-based model predictive control	arxiv 2026-05-18	248_042 A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry. Salim Ismail	Robotics	39%
0.64	Foundation Models for Credit Risk Prediction: A Game Changer?	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.64	Protection Is (Nearly) All You Need: Structural Protection Dominates Scoring in Globally Capped KV Eviction	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	Enhancing the Code Reasoning Capabilities of LLMs via Consistency-based Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	SVFSearch: A Multimodal Knowledge-Intensive Benchmark for Short-Video Frame Search in the Gaming Vertical Domain	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Agentic Cost-Aware Query Planning with Knowledge Distillation for Big Data Analytics	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.64	Feature Learning in Linear-Width Two-Layer Networks: Two vs. One Step of Gradient Descent	arxiv 2026-05-18	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.64	FDA ANDA210689: FOSAPREPITANT DIMEGLUMINE (FOSAPREPITANT DIMEGLUMINE) — LUPIN	fda 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	26%
0.64	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	Will The Democrats Win Every Presidential Election from 2028 to 2040?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-29	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.64	Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of June 2026?	manifold 2026-05-29	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.64	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $94 on June 10, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.64	Will anyone beat the 281.85 wpm Monkeytype English 60 record before 2027?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-28	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.64	Will US average gas price reach … in June 2026?	manifold 2026-05-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.64	PhyGenHOI: Physically-Aware 4D Generation of Dynamic Human-Object Interactions	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	How LoRA Remembers? A Parametric Memory Law for LLM Finetuning	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	What drives performance in molecular MPNNs? An operator-level factorial benchmark	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.64	On Distributional Reinforcement Learning in Chaotic Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	HoliTok:A Coutinuous Holistic Tokenization with Robust Dual Capabilities of Speech Generation and Understanding	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.64	Towards Verifiable Multimodal Deep Research: A Multi-Agent Harness for Interleaved Report Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.64	From Prompts to Context: An Ontology-Driven Framework for Human-Generative AI Collaboration	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	TRACE: Toulmin-based Reasoning Assessment through Constructive Elements for LLM CoT Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Mind-Omni: A Unified Multi-Task Framework for Brain-Vision-Language Modeling via Discrete Diffusion	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	SCOPE: A Lightweight-training LLM Framework for Air Traffic Control Readback Monitoring	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Neural Operator-Based Surrogate Model for CFD:Helical Coil Steam Generator in Small Modular Reactor	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.64	Digitally enriching a screening population for pancreatic cancer using routine blood-based measures and clinical histories	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_008 2026 era characterized as building a 'country of geniuses in a datacenter' — AI enables 'biological freedom', giving humanity insights to cure complex diseases (cancer, Alzheimer's) and rapidly extend healthy human lifespan over the coming decade; same... Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	35%
0.64	EVL-ECG: Efficient ECG Interpretation With Multi-Aspect Heterogeneous Knowledge Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.64	Reducing Experimental Testing in Space Propulsion Film Cooling Analyses by Pixelwise Generative Image Interpolation	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.64	A Novel Tensor Product-Based Neural Network for Solving Partial Differential Equations	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.64	Relational Rank Geometry in Transformers: Detecting and Steering Hidden-State Relation Frames	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.64	Neural-Behavioral Representation of Natural Whole-body Movement in Monkeys	arxiv 2026-05-28	238_044 Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	32%
0.64	Harmless Yet Harmful: Neutral Prompting Attacks for Stealthy Hallucination Steering in Agent Skills	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	61%
0.64	Beyond Bilingual Transfer: Multilingual Code-Switching in Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.64	Revisiting Observation Reduction for Web Agents: Comprehensive Evaluation with a Lightweight Framework	arxiv 2026-05-28	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.64	Casual as an Anchor: Resolving Supervision Misalignment in Formality Transfer Dataset	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.64	GTA: Generating Long-Horizon Tasks for Web Agents at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-28	237_022 Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.64	GTA: Generating Long-Horizon Tasks for Web Agents at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.64	GTA: Generating Long-Horizon Tasks for Web Agents at Scale	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.64	MARS Policy: Multimodality Only When It Matters	arxiv 2026-05-28	AUT_013 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	15%
0.64	FDA ANDA078480: BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE (BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE) — APOTEX	fda 2026-05-20	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.64	anthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.104.1	github_release 2026-05-22	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%