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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus](market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-24	243_045 Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	45%
0.57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus](market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-24	INF_064 Within 15-20 years, the vast majority of global ride-hailing trips will be fulfilled by autonomous robotic vehicles — with human labor entirely removed from driving/delivery and transitioned to "mission control" roles (fleet maintenance, rapid rechargi... Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	58%
0.57	CR7 VS Messi in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-23	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Scalar diquarks in the QCD vacuum	arxiv 2026-06-22	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	FDA ANDA076258: FENTANYL-37 (FENTANYL) — MYLAN TECHNOLOGIES	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA205177: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ANI PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Exact Score: Japan 0 - 2 Sweden?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	53%
0.57	Exact Score: Japan 0 - 2 Sweden?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Combined score of the 6 matches on 25 June at the fifa World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-25	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Free Lottery (Great Debate)(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-25	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Free Lottery (Great Debate)(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-25	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	ACUITY INC. (DE) (AYI) (CIK 0001144215)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.57	An iterative energy-based multimodal transformer for joint retrieval of wheat soil moisture, leaf area index, and plant height from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 time series	arxiv 2026-06-23	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.57	Introducing corpora Hlava Cor and Hlava AD: Human Label Variation in Coreference and Discourse Relations	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.57	FDA ANDA202097: FENTANYL-100 (FENTANYL) — KINDEVA	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA205057: TAPENTADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TAPENTADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA209655: FENTANYL-100 (FENTANYL) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Spain to score first vs. Uruguay?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 164.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5)(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	231_026 Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. Dave Blundin	AI	38%
0.57	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Ask, Don't Judge: Binary Questions for Interpretable LLM Evaluation and Self-Improvement	arxiv 2026-06-25	230_040 AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. Peter Diamandis	AI	27%
0.57	TOPS: First-Principles Visual Token Pruning via Constructing Token Optimal Preservation Sets for Efficient MLLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	TOPS: First-Principles Visual Token Pruning via Constructing Token Optimal Preservation Sets for Efficient MLLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-25	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Explaining Temporal Graph Neural Networks via Feature-induced Information Flow	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.57	Enabling self-supervised learned primal dual with Noise2Inverse	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.57	Geometric Gradient Rectification for Safe Open-Set Semi-Supervised Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	Nemotron-TwoTower: Diffusion Language Modeling with Pretrained Autoregressive Context	arxiv 2026-06-25	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	The gauge invariance of non-perturbative vertex prescriptions	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.57	An observer's quantization of 3d de Sitter	arxiv 2026-06-24	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	FDA ANDA089805: ACETAMINOPHEN AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ACETAMINOPHEN) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 5.5(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	15%
0.57	Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 3 Argentina?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2025-11-13	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	AES CORP (AES) (CIK 0000874761)	edgar_8k 2026-06-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	IRON MOUNTAIN INC (IRM) (CIK 0001020569)	edgar_8k 2026-06-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will a player representing Ivory Coast be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2025-12-04	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Morocco?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Morocco?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	20%
0.57	Will the Democrats win at least 222 seats? // Will Trump be impeached during his second term?	manifold 2026-06-29	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	Will Dayana Yastremska be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	Will Dayana Yastremska be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	42%
0.57	Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Will there be 30+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	241_041 Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers Eric Schmidt	AI	39%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Will the US Congress extend Trump's 10% global tariffs before they expire on July 24, 2026?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-06-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-30	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Wii Romania have a new goverment by end of July?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-30	247_052 AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs later Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	42%
0.57	PromptGNN-sim: Deep Fusion and Alignment of GNN and LLMs for Text-Attributed Graph Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	Estimating Grammatical Gender Directions in Contextual Embeddings under Controlled and Natural Contexts	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	Consensus Clustering of Free-Viewing Gaze Data: New Insights into Human-Information Interaction	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Consensus Clustering of Free-Viewing Gaze Data: New Insights into Human-Information Interaction	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.57	GLIP: Graph and LLM Joint Pretraining for Graph-Level Tasks	arxiv 2026-06-29	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	Soft-Radiation-Induced Decoherence of Heavy-Quark Spin Entanglement at the Electron-Ion Collider	arxiv 2026-06-29	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	Gluon mass and small-x dynamics in hadrons	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Searching for the $G(3900)$ via the $K^- p \to D_s^- Λ_c^+ G(3900)^0$ reaction	arxiv 2026-06-28	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.57	FDA ANDA091308: IMIQUIMOD (IMIQUIMOD) — APOTEX INC	fda 2026-06-24	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: United States O/U 1.5(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: United States O/U 1.5(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Powerfleet, Inc. (AIOT) (CIK 0001774170)	edgar_8k 2026-07-01	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.57	PEABODY ENERGY CORP (BTU) (CIK 0001064728)	edgar_8k 2026-07-01	INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy	57%
0.57	Vistra Corp. (VST) (CIK 0001692819)	edgar_8k 2026-06-30	COD_AI_001 Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026 Codex Research Pack	Technology	51%
0.57	MNAR-$k$-means: A $k$-means Clustering for Data Missing Not at Random with Magnitude-Decaying Probability	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	MNAR-$k$-means: A $k$-means Clustering for Data Missing Not at Random with Magnitude-Decaying Probability	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	FDA ANDA202970: LEVONORGESTREL AND ETHINYL ESTRADIOL (ETHINYL ESTRADIOL) — XIROMED	fda 2026-06-25	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	Will Austin Reaves play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	20%
0.57	Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.57	Will Claude Fable 5 be a accessible in a Claude max 5x subscription on July 08 2026?(market prob: 100%)	manifold 2026-07-02	234_051 Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking Alex Wissner-Gross	Consumer	38%
0.57	AdaBoosting Text Prompts for Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-07-01	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	FDA ANDA087463: OXYCET (ACETAMINOPHEN) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA NDA050138: BICILLIN C-R (PENICILLIN G BENZATHINE) — KING PHARMS LLC	fda 2026-06-25	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.57	LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.57	Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-07-03	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.57	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-07-03	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 93%)	polymarket 2025-11-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 3.5(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Miami Marlins vs. Athletics(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.57	Will Claude Fable 5 be accessible in a subscription on July 31 2026?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-07-03	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	Will Claude Fable 5 be accessible in a subscription on July 31 2026?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-07-03	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	ProCal: Inference-Time Proposal Calibration for Open-Vocabulary Object Detection	arxiv 2026-07-02	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	Generic Expert Coverage for Pruning SparseMixture-of-Experts Language Models	arxiv 2026-07-02	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Quantifying the Uncertainty of Blindly Estimated Room Embeddings Using a Dispersion-Calibrated Score	arxiv 2026-07-01	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.57	Rotating Black Holes and the Kerr/CFT Correspondence in Einstein-Bumblebee Gravity	arxiv 2026-07-02	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	5%
0.57	Counter-Strike: TrafficPills Esports vs TheBoys (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #6 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Miami Marlins vs. Athletics(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.57	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	45%
0.57	Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Red Feet - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Harry Kane: 1+ goals(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-07-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Two-way animal communication awarded before...	manifold 2026-07-03	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.57	Two-way animal communication awarded before...	manifold 2026-07-03	COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	Will Brazil lead Norway at the end of 90 minutes (including stoppage time) on July 5, 2026 (7/5/26)?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Belgium?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	United States vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Belgium?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Belgium?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffs(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-07-05	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs ex-Vexa - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First Half(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Ouster, Inc. (OUST) (CIK 0001816581)	edgar_8k 2026-07-06	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.57	FDA NDA206769: ARGATROBAN IN 0.9% SODIUM CHLORIDE (ARGATROBAN) — TEVA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-06-26	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA040171: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — WATSON LABS	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.57	Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Hierarchical Evidence-Driven Reasoning for Long Document Understanding	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	Generative wave propagator	arxiv 2026-07-05	230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Ossetic-COT: Designing a morphologically annotated corpus and morphological analyzer for Ossetic	arxiv 2026-07-06	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.57	Speaker-Disentangled Chunk-Wise Regression for Syllabic Tokenization	arxiv 2026-07-05	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.57	Symmetries and Conservation Laws in Lie-Poisson Electrodynamics	arxiv 2026-07-05	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	5%
0.57	Infrared Divergences as Itinerant Vacua	arxiv 2026-07-05	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.57	FDA ANDA208535: METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE AND SITAGLIPTIN PHOSPHATE (METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — ZYDUS PHARMS USA INC	fda 2026-06-30	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-07-08	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.57	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-07-07	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Morocco?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-07-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Morocco?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-07-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-07-07	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Middlesex(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Free Lottery (experimental psychology)(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-07-08	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	STERLING INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. (STRL) (CIK 0000874238)	edgar_8k 2026-07-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Graph Convolutional Attention: A Spectral Perspective on Graph Denoising and Diffusion	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Prompt-Adapter Context Routing for Parameter-Efficient Multi-Shot Long Video Extrapolation	arxiv 2026-07-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.57	What Images Cannot Say: Language-Guided Olfactory Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-07-07	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.57	Token-Based Dual-view Fusion and Adaptation of Large Vision Models for Breast Cancer Classification	arxiv 2026-07-07	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	PVCap: Towards Accurate 3D Dense Captioning via PseudoCap and VoxelCapNet	arxiv 2026-07-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.57	i-EXAM: Instructable and Explainable Attack Connectivity Graph Modeler	arxiv 2026-07-07	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.57	Differentially Private Natural Gradient Descent	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.57	BaFCo: A Document Understanding Benchmark for Complex Bangla Form Comprehension	arxiv 2026-07-06	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	On the convergence of graph Laplacians with a symmetric divergence	arxiv 2026-07-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Ossetic-COT: Designing a morphologically annotated corpus and morphological analyzer for Ossetic	arxiv 2026-07-06	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.57	An Intermediate Scale R-axion \& the QCD Axion	arxiv 2026-07-07	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Determination of thermodynamics from entanglement entropy in the finite-density O(N) model	arxiv 2026-07-07	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Higher-dimensional chaotic features and random matrix signatures following a local quench	arxiv 2026-07-06	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.57	FDA ANDA040656: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-08	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.57	LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-23	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	41%
0.57	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	241_028 US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	48%
0.57	Iran leadership change by April 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%