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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	Multi-Modal Contrastive Learning for Implicit Earth Embeddings via Location Tying	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.57	ReNikud: Audio-Supervised Hebrew Grapheme-to-Phoneme Conversion	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	ARC: Adaptive Robust Joint State and Covariance Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Shadow Completion in Celestial OPEs	arxiv 2026-06-18	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Factorized Quantum Curves and Voronoi Polytopes in 3D Duality Cascades with FI Parameters	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	Generating Function of single-centered Black Hole Index in CHL Models	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	14%
0.57	Bootstrapping Pion Form Factors at Large $N$	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_047 Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. Brett Adcock	AI	77%
0.57	FDA ANDA075182: ESTRADIOL (ESTRADIOL) — MYLAN TECHNOLOGIES	fda 2026-06-08	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.57	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will San Francisco Giants win the 2026 National League Championship Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-19	232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	34%
0.57	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	COD_ROB_001 Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	24%
0.57	Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	32%
0.57	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.57	Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt	Education	37%
0.57	Free Lottery (dark matter & banana)(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-06-21	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	9%
0.57	Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Brazil vs Panama(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Who will be voted the favorite among the first 10 traders on this market?	manifold 2026-06-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027	ipo_trillion_plus	40%
0.57	Norway or Senegal	manifold 2026-06-22	241_034 One or two frontier AI companies in Europe Eric Schmidt	AI	46%
0.57	Nextpower Inc. (NXT) (CIK 0001852131)	edgar_8k 2026-06-22	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.57	Sidus Space Inc. (SIDU) (CIK 0001879726)	edgar_8k 2026-06-22	INF_020 In-orbit data-center market will reach approximately $1.77 billion by 2029 and grow to approximately $39.1 billion by 2035 — a 67.4% CAGR driven by Starship economics, radiation-hardened TPU hardware, and mega-constellation filings. BIS Research	Space	26%
0.57	Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Guru World Cup Profit Up/Down by End of June(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-23	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	Statistical Matching via Schrödinger Bridge beyond Conditional Independence	arxiv 2026-06-22	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Uncertainty-based Debiasing and Unlearning for Decontamination	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Uncertainty-based Debiasing and Unlearning for Decontamination	arxiv 2026-06-22	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.57	Curvature-aware 3D length estimation of greenhouse cucumbers using RGB-D imaging and cubic spline arc-length integration	arxiv 2026-06-21	CYB_018 Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — backed by concentrated collective capital of the AI hardware-software industry (Microsoft, NVIDIA, OpenAI), signaling industry-wide belief that humanoid r... Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.57	Affine quantization of the dynamical Reissner--Nordström region	arxiv 2026-06-22	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.57	Dynamics of ($Z_N$) Domain Walls in SU(N) Gauge Theories	arxiv 2026-06-21	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	FDA ANDA201972: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — AUROLIFE PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA079040: MORPHINE SULFATE (MORPHINE SULFATE) — ACTAVIS ELIZABETH	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	FDA ANDA211228: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ASCENT PHARMS INC	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA215860: PANTOPRAZOLE SODIUM (PANTOPRAZOLE SODIUM) — MEITHEAL	fda 2026-06-15	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA214590: TRETINOIN (TRETINOIN) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-06-11	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA ANDA040355: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Will GTA 6 cost $100+?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-02-10	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.57	Will Natasha Howard have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.57	Will Messi play in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-24	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.57	Will anyone send me 1000 or more Mana before July 1(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-24	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.57	Will control of the House and Senate be called by midnight (PT) on election night in the 2026 US Midterms?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-06-24	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.57	Will control of the House and Senate be called by midnight (PT) on election night in the 2026 US Midterms?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-06-24	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months?(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-06-23	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	32%
0.57	Beyond U-Net: A Latent-Representation-Aligned Skip-Free Backbone for Flow-Matching Speech Enhancement	arxiv 2026-06-23	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.57	SURGELLM: Rethinking Multi-Task Evaluation through Task-Aware Feature Gating with Class-Balanced Normalization	arxiv 2026-06-23	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.57	L3Cube-MahaPOS: A Marathi Part-of-Speech Tagging Dataset and BERT Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	QC-SMOTE: Quality-Controlled SMOTE for Imbalanced Classification	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Prediction of Viscoelastic Droplet Impact Dynamics Using a Vision Transformer-Based Approach	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	Efficient Time-Domain Simulation of USV Motions in Short-Crested Irregular Waves Using an IRF-Based Framework	arxiv 2026-06-23	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.57	Binary black hole scattering with generic spins	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	Black Hole Ringdown Nonlinearities in the Large-D Limit	arxiv 2026-06-22	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	FDA ANDA207137: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — AMNEAL PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA NDA204017: TWIRLA (ETHINYL ESTRADIOL) — AGILE	fda 2026-06-18	232_036 AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. Ben Horowitz	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.57	FDA ANDA213571: ISOTRETINOIN (ISOTRETINOIN) — UPSHER SMITH LABS	fda 2026-06-16	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA NDA007337: PERCODAN (ASPIRIN) — ENDO OPERATIONS	fda 2026-06-18	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.57	Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Iraq be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Austin Reaves play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	Exact Score: Japan 1 - 3 Sweden?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	MERCURY GENERAL CORP (MCY) (CIK 0000064996)	edgar_8k 2026-06-24	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.57	Fuzzy Quantification over OWL Ontologies and Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	FDA ANDA202097: FENTANYL-100 (FENTANYL) — KINDEVA	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA207808: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — RHODES PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA212024: LEVORPHANOL TARTRATE (LEVORPHANOL TARTRATE) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA203601: OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — AVANTHI INC	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA202142: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — MIKART	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 164.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Spread: Spain (-3.5)(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Iran full airspace closure by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Will Trump set foot in Greenland by the end of July 2027?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-26	229_037 With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. Peter Diamandis	Energy	21%
0.57	ReaORE: Reasoning-Guided Progressive Open Relation Extraction Empowered by Large Reasoning Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	A Latent ODE Approach to Spatiotemporal Modeling of Cine Cardiac MRI	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.57	Explainable Ensemble-Based Machine Learning Models for Detecting the Presence of Cirrhosis in Hepatitis C Patients	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.57	Parametric Generalized Adaptive Moment Features (PG-AMF) for Bearing Fault Diagnosis and Machine Health Monitoring	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Latent Diffusion Posterior Sampling with Surrogate Likelihood Guidance for PDE Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Nemotron-TwoTower: Diffusion Language Modeling with Pretrained Autoregressive Context	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.57	A Circle That Won't Return: The Fate of RR Fluxes and D-branes in Type 0A Tachyon Condensation	arxiv 2026-06-24	232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Lyman-Alpha Forest and its Cross-Correlation with High-Redshift Galaxies in Effective Field Theory at the Field Level	arxiv 2026-06-24	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	De Sitter Representations	arxiv 2026-06-24	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	5%
0.57	FDA ANDA040241: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — VISTAPHARM LLC	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	Will Owen Caissie win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Will Linda Nosková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 5.5(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	France vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard	Media/Ads	50%
0.57	will ayan nayak jmo qual in the big 27(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-06-27	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	FDA ANDA089828: ACETAMINOPHEN AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ACETAMINOPHEN) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA210484: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ELITE LABS INC	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA075523: NALOXONE HYDROCHLORIDE AND PENTAZOCINE HYDROCHLORIDE (NALOXONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — SUN PHARM INDS LTD	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Bellucci vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	32%
0.57	Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Acend (+1.5)(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day in July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-28	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Ce pica la examenul national de bacalaureat 2026, proba matematica subiectul 3 exercitiul 2 punctul c), pentru mate-info	manifold 2026-06-27	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	Will there be a conflict in Iran after the U.S. midterm elections?”(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-06-26	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.57	Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Spread: England (-1.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	How many Trump districts will House Democrats win in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-29	234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	Will the Democrats win at least 222 seats? // Will Trump be impeached during his second term?	manifold 2026-06-29	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.57	Will this century's World Cup winners advance to the round of 16?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-29	230_025 The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. Peter Diamandis	AI	52%
0.57	Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-26	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.57	Will Dayana Yastremska be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	32%
0.57	Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will Naomi Osaka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	231_026 Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. Dave Blundin	AI	38%
0.57	FFAvatar: Feed-Forward 4D Head Avatar Reconstruction from Sparse Portrait Images	arxiv 2026-06-29	233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin	AI	37%
0.57	LC-ICL: Label-Guided Contrastive In-Context Learning for Robust Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-28	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	Holography and Kinematic Space for Gravitational Sub-regions in AdS	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.57	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Portland Trail Blazers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Valorant: Mandatory vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Cary: William Manning vs Michael Mmoh(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.57	Will I run further than @draaglom in July?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-07-01	231_036 Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. Peter Diamandis	Space	51%
0.57	What will the national average gas price be on August 1st?	manifold 2026-07-01	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	How restrictive will Fable's new safeguards be, according to manifold?	manifold 2026-07-01	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	How many problems written by me will appear on the 2027 ELMO?	manifold 2026-06-30	234_006 Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solved Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	巴拉圭战胜了德国欸(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-30	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Fable enabled for Australians before July 17th?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-29	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	Powerfleet, Inc. (AIOT) (CIK 0001774170)	edgar_8k 2026-07-01	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	When to Truncate a Feature Ranking: A Residual-Overlap Stopping Rule for Subset Selection	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	TabPATE: Differentially Private Tabular In-Context Learning Without Public Data	arxiv 2026-06-30	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.57	MNAR-$k$-means: A $k$-means Clustering for Data Missing Not at Random with Magnitude-Decaying Probability	arxiv 2026-06-30	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advance(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 1.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Red Feet - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	What will be the tipping-point contest for the Senate in 2026?	manifold 2026-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.57	Logit-Contribution Scoring Identifies Non-Literal Retrieval Heads	arxiv 2026-07-01	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	PRISM: Prioritized Channel Importance with Semi-supervised Domain Adaptation for Cross-Subject EEG Emotion Recognition	arxiv 2026-07-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA202076: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ALKEM LABS LTD	fda 2026-06-18	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA090733: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — PH HEALTH	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-07-03	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Wimbledon ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Arthur Fery(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.57	Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	will i get a 5 on ap physics 1(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-07-02	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.57	CENTRUS ENERGY CORP (LEU) (CIK 0001065059)	edgar_8k 2026-07-02	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	14%
0.57	Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.57	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Miami Marlins vs. Athletics(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Will Portugal vs Spain have over 6.5 total combined goals and cards? (Includes Extra Time)(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-07-04	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Distributionally Robust Listwise Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-07-02	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Distributionally Robust Listwise Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-07-02	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Generic Expert Coverage for Pruning SparseMixture-of-Experts Language Models	arxiv 2026-07-02	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	A Quantum-Walk Representation of Color-Ordered MHV Scattering Amplitudes	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	Black Holes and Random Variables	arxiv 2026-07-02	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%