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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	Bounds on nonlinear electrodynamics via resummed relative entropy	arxiv 2026-06-22	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Orientation matters: Consequences for gravitational-wave background detectability	arxiv 2026-06-22	240_012 Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Twisting Small-$x$ Gluon Tomography with Orbital Angular Momentum	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	UV-finite Effective Field Theory from Quantized Irreversible Null-geometry	arxiv 2026-06-22	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Nonlinear Geometrizability of State-Dependent Proto-Area in Approximate Holographic Codes	arxiv 2026-06-21	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Nonlinear Geometrizability of State-Dependent Proto-Area in Approximate Holographic Codes	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	FDA ANDA077567: DIVALPROEX SODIUM (DIVALPROEX SODIUM) — MYLAN	fda 2026-06-12	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-01	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will somebody mammogram/managram me 1500 times(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-24	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.57	Will anyone send me 1000 or more Mana before July 1(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-24	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-23	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Beyond U-Net: A Latent-Representation-Aligned Skip-Free Backbone for Flow-Matching Speech Enhancement	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.57	Automated Residual Plot Assessment With the R Package autovi and the Shiny Application autovi.web	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.57	Efficient Time-Domain Simulation of USV Motions in Short-Crested Irregular Waves Using an IRF-Based Framework	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Multi-dimensional chaos II: String scattering amplitudes, curve repulsion, and RMT	arxiv 2026-06-23	230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Binary black hole scattering with generic spins	arxiv 2026-06-23	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Primordial Black Holes: A Review of Formation and Evolution	arxiv 2026-06-22	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Black Hole Ringdown Nonlinearities in the Large-D Limit	arxiv 2026-06-22	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	14%
0.57	Excitability of Gaussian states with VEVs	arxiv 2026-06-22	231_047 Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	FDA NDA204017: TWIRLA (ETHINYL ESTRADIOL) — AGILE	fda 2026-06-18	247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	55%
0.57	FDA ANDA088640: MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — BARR	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA NDA007337: PERCODAN (ASPIRIN) — ENDO OPERATIONS	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	Will McCartney Kessler be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.57	Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	The Whaleslayer Coinflip V2(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-25	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.57	Disgrace of Gijón Reloaded ( 🇩🇿 ALG vs 🇦🇹 AUT )	manifold 2026-06-25	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.57	Highest scoring team on June 25 at the fifa World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-25	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will a new theatrical Star Trek movie be released on or before January 30, 2030 (1/30/30)?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-20	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	Will a new theatrical Star Trek movie be released on or before January 30, 2030 (1/30/30)?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	MICROVISION, INC. (MVIS) (CIK 0000065770)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	Absci Corp (ABSI) (CIK 0001672688)	edgar_8k 2026-06-24	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.57	Absci Corp (ABSI) (CIK 0001672688)	edgar_8k 2026-06-24	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.57	Improved Large Language Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.57	Auto-Configured Explainable Graph Neural Networks for Multi-Site Pollution Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-23	INF_021 AI data centers are the 'steel mills of the 21st century' — humanity will miss near-term climate-change mitigation goals, with the bet that a sufficiently capable AI later solves the climate crisis retroactively. Eric Schmidt	Energy	47%
0.57	Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	30%
0.57	Spread: Spain (-3.5)(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will GTA VI be delayed again?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-26	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Will there be another earthquake rating 7.0 or above in Japan within the next 7 days?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-26	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	78%
0.57	When Fable access returns, will it be available as part of the monthly paid plan?(market prob: 76%)	manifold 2026-06-26	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	When Fable access returns, will it be available as part of the monthly paid plan?(market prob: 76%)	manifold 2026-06-26	234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Will the winner of the 2028 presidential election be one of AOC, Newsom, Vance or Rubio?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-06-24	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	ReasonCLIP-58M: Visually Grounded Commonsense Reasoning Supervision for CLIP	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.57	Robust Onion: Peeling Open Vocab Object Detectors Under Noise	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	Explainable Ensemble-Based Machine Learning Models for Detecting the Presence of Cirrhosis in Hepatitis C Patients	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	Active Adversarial Perturbation-driven Associative Memory Retrieval for RGB-Event Visual Object Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Parametric Generalized Adaptive Moment Features (PG-AMF) for Bearing Fault Diagnosis and Machine Health Monitoring	arxiv 2026-06-24	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.57	Explaining Temporal Graph Neural Networks via Feature-induced Information Flow	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.57	Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQA	arxiv 2026-06-25	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.57	State-Specific Respiratory Signatures for Affective and Stress Recognition: Interpretable Respiratory Markers, Autocorrelation Lags, and Compact CNN Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Latent Diffusion Posterior Sampling with Surrogate Likelihood Guidance for PDE Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-25	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Laplace Space for Cosmological Correlators	arxiv 2026-06-25	230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Laplace Space for Cosmological Correlators	arxiv 2026-06-25	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.57	Dyeing form factors as amplitudes	arxiv 2026-06-25	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	5%
0.57	Dirichlet, Neumann, Mixed and self-dual holography: (self-dual) Yang--Mills theory II	arxiv 2026-06-24	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	A Circle That Won't Return: The Fate of RR Fluxes and D-branes in Type 0A Tachyon Condensation	arxiv 2026-06-24	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	FDA ANDA217449: BALOXAVIR MARBOXIL (BALOXAVIR MARBOXIL) — NORWICH	fda 2026-06-17	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	41%
0.57	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.57	What will be the sum of my AP scores releasing this July?	manifold 2026-06-27	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	FDA ANDA040260: OXYCODONE AND ASPIRIN (ASPIRIN) — SUN PHARM INDUSTRIES	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN Playoffs(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Spread: France (-1.5)(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Spread: Netherlands (-5.5)(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Marta Kostyuk be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Will a player representing Ivory Coast be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Marin Čilić be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.57	Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.57	Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Acend (+1.5)(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will a meteor hit earth tomorrow?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-28	232_048 Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Will the food messages come back from the f.?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-06-29	231_049 If privacy is cooked, then crypto is cooked (private keys compromised). Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	40%
0.57	Schrodinger, Inc. (SDGR) (CIK 0001490978)	edgar_8k 2026-06-29	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.57	Schrodinger, Inc. (SDGR) (CIK 0001490978)	edgar_8k 2026-06-29	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.57	Will Carlos Rodón strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Declan Rice win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Naomi Osaka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-30	IND_019 2026 is the year AI's impact on workers fundamentally comes into focus — near-term 4% net reduction in jobs across the 5 sectors most exposed to AI, heavily targeting entry-level positions; but labor disruption increases returns for firms that successf... Morgan Stanley	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.57	Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-30	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	PromptGNN-sim: Deep Fusion and Alignment of GNN and LLMs for Text-Attributed Graph Learning	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.57	Estimating Grammatical Gender Directions in Contextual Embeddings under Controlled and Natural Contexts	arxiv 2026-06-29	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Query-Aware Spreading Activation for Multi-Hop Retrieval over Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.57	Gravitational Duals from Equations of State II: Large Hierarchies and False Vacua	arxiv 2026-06-29	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Beyond Triplet Plausibility: Relation Set Completion in Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	ITSPACE: Monotone Gaussian Optimal Transport Updates	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.57	DistilledGemma: Balanced Efficiency-Accuracy for Person-Place Relation Extraction from Multilingual Historical Articles	arxiv 2026-06-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.57	Holography and Kinematic Space for Gravitational Sub-regions in AdS	arxiv 2026-06-29	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Exact calculation of entanglement negativity for a 1+1D massless scalar field using phase space methods	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Nonlinear nature of near-equilibrium viscous fluids	arxiv 2026-06-29	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	55%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Best ARC-AGI-3 score by EOY26?	manifold 2026-07-01	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-07-01	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will abortion be more morally acceptable among Americans in 2027 than in 2026, according to Gallup?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-07-01	244_002 Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	38%
0.57	Learning Gaussian Graphical Models from a Glauber Trajectory Without Mixing	arxiv 2026-06-30	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.57	FDA NDA218275: ZEVTERA (CEFTOBIPROLE MEDOCARIL SODIUM) — ISTX	fda 2026-06-26	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA212173: ACYCLOVIR (ACYCLOVIR) — YILING	fda 2026-06-24	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will Austin Reaves play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock	Robotics	56%
0.57	Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs South Africa(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-07-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	FDA ANDA213414: DAPSONE (DAPSONE) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-06-25	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA209924: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ELITE LABS INC	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Counter-Strike: ALKA vs Blitzkrieg (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2026-07-03	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.57	San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Zachary Svajda(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will "Saving Gemini: The 9-Min Road to Recovery" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-07-03	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	PROCORE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (PCOR) (CIK 0001611052)	edgar_8k 2026-07-02	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Mexico vs. England: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	RadiomicNet: A Hybrid Radiomics-Guided Lightweight Architecture for Interpretable Medical Image Segmentation	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	SABER: A Semantic-Aligned Brain Network Analysis Framework via Multi-scale Hypergraphs	arxiv 2026-07-02	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.57	Scene-Conditioned PINN-GNN for Multipath RF Maps: Cross-Scene Generation and In-Scene Completion	arxiv 2026-07-02	243_030 Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots Dara Khosrowshahi	Robotics	31%
0.57	IntentTune: Using user demand and personalization to resolve "unknown" query intents for e-commerce search	arxiv 2026-07-01	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	Object-centric LeJEPA	arxiv 2026-07-02	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	Miami Marlins vs. Athletics(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2026-07-05	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-07-04	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Mexico vs. England: England O/U 4.5 Corners(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-07-03	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Belgium?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Belgium?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	238_059 Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	42%
0.57	United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 2.5(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) (CIK 0001441816)	edgar_8k 2026-07-06	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.57	FDA ANDA202160: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — AUROLIFE PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA091498: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — CSPC OUYI PHARM CO	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Will Matt Olson win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock	Robotics	56%
0.57	New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	32%
0.57	Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.57	Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-07-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will FC Sheriff Tiraspol win on 2026-07-09?(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will FC Sheriff Tiraspol win on 2026-07-09?(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	MICROVISION, INC. (MVIS) (CIK 0000065770)	edgar_8k 2026-07-07	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	Air Quality Downscaling with Station-Guided Pseudo-Supervision	arxiv 2026-07-06	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Air Quality Downscaling with Station-Guided Pseudo-Supervision	arxiv 2026-07-06	S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path	agi_general_capability	25%
0.57	RUFNet: Query-Guided Support Mask Refinement and Uncertainty Fusion based on Hybrid Mamba for Few-Shot Brain Tumor Segmentation	arxiv 2026-07-06	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Joint Velocity Slope Diffusion Prior for Structurally Constrained Velocity Model Building	arxiv 2026-07-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Explainable Novel Category Discovery in Semantic Concept Space	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Progressive Refinement: An Iterative Pseudo-Labeling Approach for Mandarin-English Code-Switching ASR	arxiv 2026-07-06	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.57	Uncertainty-Aware Abstention in Large Language Models with Provable Alignment Guarantees	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	WPG-MoE: Weak-Prior-Guided Dense Mixture-of-Experts for User-Level Social Media Depression Detection	arxiv 2026-07-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Beyond Multilingual Averages: MTEB-PT, a Benchmark for Portuguese Sentence Encoders	arxiv 2026-07-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	32%
0.57	Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Spread: Pistons (-10.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.57	LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-08	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Netanyahu out by April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-17	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Canadiens vs. Lightning(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.57	Spread: Pistons (-9.5)(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	29%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-03	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.57	Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.57	Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.57	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-16	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	32%
0.57	US-Iran negotiations resume before June 2026? (check description)(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-04-29	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Will I get a Gold Medal on USAMO 2027?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-04-28	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	Will Israel attack Iraq in 2030?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-26	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Will at least one World Marathon Major be won under 2 hours every year until end of 2029?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-04-26	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	What will my mathcounts state score be?	manifold 2026-04-26	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%