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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.59 | Gauff vs. Svitolina: Match O/U 21.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.59 | Will Harris English win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA217761: SPIRONOLACTONE (SPIRONOLACTONE) — ANNORA PHARMA | fda 2026-05-12 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.59 | github_release 2022-04-12 | CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic | AI | 80% | ||
| 0.59 | github_release 2021-01-07 | 242_051 Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-04-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-04-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.59 | Will I be able to convince Claudius Maximus in any Convince the Machine?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | |
| 0.59 | Cavaliers vs. Knicks(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will Alberta join the US? (market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-06 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt | Education | 37% | ||
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-03-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | Will MrBeast become a billionaire before age 35?(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_009 Human billionaires will be first movers funding UBI-like regional transfers Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Jose Luis Ricon find a new girlfriend by EOY2026?(market prob: 73%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | |
| 0.59 | edgar_8k 2026-05-18 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tristan Schoolkate vs Kimmer Coppejans(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-04-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-09-11 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.59 | Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will I successfully refer someone for Ṁ1,000?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 232_053 To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion before reaching a product. Ben Horowitz | AI | 46% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-19 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.59 | edgar_8k 2026-05-19 | 240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn | Consumer | 44% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA219750: L-GLUTAMINE (L-GLUTAMINE) — STIRA | fda 2026-05-14 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA089534: SPIRONOLACTONE AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — SUN PHARM INDUSTRIES | fda 2026-05-12 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.59 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.59 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.59 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.59 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-20 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Will David Njoku play for Jacksonville Jaguars in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.59 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-30 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba | AI | 79% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.59 | FDA BLA761452: IMMGOLIS (GOLIMUMAB-SLDI) — ACCORD BIOPHARMA INC. | fda 2026-05-15 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.59 | FDA BLA761468: HEPCLUDEX (BULEVIRTIDE-GMOD) — GILEAD SCIENCES INC | fda 2026-05-22 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.59 | FDA NDA219878: BAXFENDY (BAXDROSTAT) — ASTRAZENECA AB | fda 2026-05-15 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.59 | Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | 232_059 Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.59 | Brazil 2026 Election: Will Brazil’s third way fail the 10% test?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | |
| 0.59 | Will Portland Fire win the 2026 WNBA Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.59 | Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA220499: ANDA220499 ((unspecified)) — ALEMBIC PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED | fda 2026-05-13 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 60% | |
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA212975: IMATINIB MESYLATE (IMATINIB MESYLATE) — HETERO LABS LTD V | fda 2026-05-22 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA210215: AMANTADINE HYDROCHLORIDE (AMANTADINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — POM PHARMA | fda 2026-05-13 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA211255: LINACLOTIDE (LINACLOTIDE) — ACTAVIS LABS FL INC | fda 2026-05-19 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.59 | Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.59 | Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.59 | Skeletor is gonna reference the meme “until we meet again”?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | |
| 0.59 | Will Trump's Anti-Weaponization Fund survive its initial challenges(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.59 | Will Softbank Group Corp. (9984.t) close at over 8000 on Jun11?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt | Education | 48% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li | AI | 63% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-31 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-31 | 232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin | Media/Ads | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-05-31 | AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 87% | ||
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA081235: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — MYLAN | fda 2026-05-27 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA201749: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — SUN PHARM | fda 2026-05-27 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.59 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.59 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.59 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.59 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.59 | edgar_8k 2026-06-03 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.59 | edgar_8k 2026-06-03 | TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | 22% | ||
| 0.59 | FDA BLA125166: SOLIRIS (ECULIZUMAB) — ALEXION PHARM | fda 2026-06-01 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.59 | FDA BLA022472: AFREZZA (INSULIN RECOMBINANT HUMAN) — MANNKIND | fda 2026-05-29 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA220043: VORICONAZOLE (VORICONAZOLE) — HAINAN POLY PHARM | fda 2026-05-29 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA216095: SODIUM SULFATE, MAGNESIUM SULFATE AND POTASSIUM CHLORIDE (MAGNESIUM SULFATE) — LUPIN | fda 2026-05-28 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.59 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 231_048 Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game. Salim Ismail | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.59 | edgar_8k 2026-06-04 | 240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.59 | O/U 1.5 Rounds(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt | Defense | 17% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | 240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price | Education | 49% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030 | robotaxi_deployment | 30% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.59 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | github_release 2021-11-02 | 234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 87% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin | AI/Architecture | 65% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 29% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 64% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-08 | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 27% | ||
| 0.59 | edgar_8k 2026-06-08 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.59 | FDA NDA021529: IMPLANON (ETONOGESTREL) — ORGANON | fda 2026-05-28 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 60% | |
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA218566: MYCOPHENOLATE MOFETIL (MYCOPHENOLATE MOFETIL) — CONCORD BIOTECH LTD | fda 2026-06-01 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA209633: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — BRECKENRIDGE | fda 2026-06-03 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.59 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.59 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_056 Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) Peter Diamandis | AI | 54% | |
| 0.59 | Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.59 | Will monsoon reach Bihar by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-08 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt | Education | 48% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 82% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | 239_032 Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.59 | Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.59 | Will the USA reach the quarter-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.59 | Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2025-12-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Donald Trump praise Allah again before 2027?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Donald Trump praise Allah again before 2027?(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-11 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.59 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz | AI | 77% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | FUT_005 Emergence of 'Living Intelligence' 2026-2031: violent transformative convergence between biological science, silicon-based sensor networks, and algorithmic orchestration — biological cells programmed with same precision as silicon computers. Living cel... Amy Webb | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | AI_034 The AI-native education model will see global adoption within approximately 5 years — driven by sub-$1,000 offline tablets and AI tutors capable of lifting historically lagging demographics (e.g. New Mexico, Sub-Saharan Africa) into top-tier performanc... Joe Liemandt | Education | 22% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | 234_003 Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.59 | FDA ANDA210692: ATOVAQUONE (ATOVAQUONE) — HETERO LABS LTD III | fda 2026-06-08 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.59 | github_release 2025-11-14 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.59 | Will Miami Marlins win the 2026 NL East title?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-19 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.59 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | 15% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 87% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt | Defense | 17% | ||
| 0.59 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% |