Validations Queue

63,896 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 14 of 34, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

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Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

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SimDocSourcePredDomainPrior
0.61polymarket
2026-05-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-09
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-09
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61
Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 34%)
polymarket
2026-05-10
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-29
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-13
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-05
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-20
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-20
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-16
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-29
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-22
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-01
247_001
xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer
Peter Diamandis
AI42%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-25
244_008
If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up
Dara Khosrowshahi
Other53%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-26
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-21
INF_070
Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen...
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Energy57%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.61polymarket
2026-01-29
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
AUT_022
2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-...
Morgan Stanley
Auto/Transport47%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-23
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-02-09
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-09
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-01
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-09
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-09
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5(market prob: 45%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-19
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-05
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-25
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-04
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-16
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-03
238_048
US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt)
Eric Schmidt
Geopolitics45%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-29
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-25
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-05
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-25
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-17
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-10
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-08
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-08
AUT_022
2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-...
Morgan Stanley
Auto/Transport47%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-10
230_010
Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks47%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-10
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-16
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-01
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-08
AUT_022
2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-...
Morgan Stanley
Auto/Transport47%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-19
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-21
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-29
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-04
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-04
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-16
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-08
COD_SPC_002
The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028
Codex Research Pack
Space22%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-01
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-05
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-05
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-17
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-08
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-11
FUT_014
'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl...
Ian Bremmer
Geopolitics55%
0.61
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-05-08
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-12
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-21
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-24
236_009
Human billionaires will be first movers funding UBI-like regional transfers
Andrew Yang
Macro/Economy50%
0.61
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-10
247_010
Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory
Dave Blundin
AI40%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-03
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-01-07
FUT_022
Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking...
Peter Zeihan
Macro/Economy72%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-29
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-04
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-04
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-14
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.61
Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)
polymarket
2026-05-15
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-16
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-17
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61
Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-17
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-05-18
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-12
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-24
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-16
247_001
xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer
Peter Diamandis
AI42%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-16
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-16
246_001
SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks79%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-28
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.61polymarket
2026-01-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-01
242_007
Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value
Prediction markets
Markets/Stocks45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-25
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-14
241_036
No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war
Eric Schmidt
AI51%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-29
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-29
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-24
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-31
242_007
Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value
Prediction markets
Markets/Stocks45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-26
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-12
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-28
241_036
No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war
Eric Schmidt
AI51%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-01
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-22
COD_SPC_003
SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026
Codex Research Pack
Space30%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-13
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-12
SEM_016
Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience.
David Friedberg
Semis/Geopolitics24%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-13
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-01-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.61polymarket
2026-01-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-12
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-25
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-17
SPC_028
Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles.
Salim Ismail
Labor/Jobs37%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-10
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-19
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-25
229_026
By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.
Brett Adcock
Robotics38%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-03
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-25
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-25
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-02
246_030
DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Markets/Stocks34%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-17
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-02-16
247_003
Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-08
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics32%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-08
COD_SPC_002
The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028
Codex Research Pack
Space22%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics32%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-25
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-08
AUT_022
2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-...
Morgan Stanley
Auto/Transport47%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-20
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-08
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-08
AUT_022
2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-...
Morgan Stanley
Auto/Transport47%
0.61
Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 36%)
polymarket
2026-05-02
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-23
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-08
S_RECESSION_2027
NBER recession declared 2027
macro_recession30%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-10
235_003
First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks55%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-23
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61
Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 36%)
polymarket
2026-05-02
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-30
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-08
COD_SPC_002
The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028
Codex Research Pack
Space22%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61
Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 41%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.61
Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 47%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)(market prob: 57%)
polymarket
2026-05-10
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)(market prob: 53%)
polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-01-07
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-04
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.61
Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)
polymarket
2026-05-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-22
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-30
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2025-05-02
AUT_022
2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-...
Morgan Stanley
Auto/Transport47%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-06
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-14
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-15
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-19
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.61
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-18
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-16
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-01
242_007
Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value
Prediction markets
Markets/Stocks45%
0.61polymarket
2026-02-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-16
S_IPO_TRILLION_2026
First $1T+ IPO in 2026
ipo_trillion_plus25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-01
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-25
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-17
229_004
By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.
Brett Adcock
Geopolitics41%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-16
244_008
If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up
Dara Khosrowshahi
Other53%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-05
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
233_009
A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.
Joe Liemandt
Education36%
0.61
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5(market prob: 51%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-02
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-25
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-08
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-04
CYB_013
The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou...
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks52%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-09
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-31
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-12
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-12
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-19
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-09
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-21
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-19
236_004
Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-27
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-12
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-20
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-09
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-28
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-17
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-10
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61
Spread: Pistons (-9.5)(market prob: 55%)
polymarket
2026-04-28
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-25
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-09
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-26
231_002
Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-11
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics32%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-08
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-10
246_011
Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years.
Dave Blundin
AI42%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-03
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-25
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-25
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-17
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-17
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics32%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-01
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-12
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-08
231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.
Dave Blundin
AI44%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-20
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-27
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-01
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-28
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-04
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-04
241_036
No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war
Eric Schmidt
AI51%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-08
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-12
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.61polymarket
2025-07-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-10
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-07
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-29
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61
Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)
polymarket
2026-05-11
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.61polymarket
2026-01-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-12
INF_002
By 2027-2028, the US national-security apparatus will effectively appropriate frontier AI data centers — 'The Project' — to secure algorithmic weights and physical infrastructure against state-actor espionage.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Geopolitics30%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-04
238_010
AI takeoff/inflection is happening now
Emad Mostaque
AI66%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-23
FUT_009
Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in...
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitics42%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-23
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-14
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-01
231_051
Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost.
Salim Ismail
Crypto48%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-19
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-29
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
CMQ_036
SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Semis/Memory68%
0.61polymarket
2025-09-19
240_030
Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics35%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-26
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2025-10-09
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5(market prob: 44%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 47%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-25
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-25
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-29
242_007
Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value
Prediction markets
Markets/Stocks45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-29
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2025-12-05
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-24
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-10
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-27
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-10
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-12
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-12
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-01
242_007
Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value
Prediction markets
Markets/Stocks45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-12
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-03-19
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-13
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-13
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-21
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-13
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-22
INF_002
By 2027-2028, the US national-security apparatus will effectively appropriate frontier AI data centers — 'The Project' — to secure algorithmic weights and physical infrastructure against state-actor espionage.
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Geopolitics30%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61polymarket
2026-06-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.61
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 43%)
polymarket
2026-05-21
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.61polymarket
2026-02-09
231_018
Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.61polymarket
2025-11-20
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.61polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.61polymarket
2026-04-06
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-09
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-17
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-10
SEM_030
S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).
Mike Wilson
Capital Markets43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
235_017
OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks48%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-26
247_003
Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-31
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-25
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-29
IND_021
February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte...
Jack Dorsey
Labor/Jobs74%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-03
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
231_002
Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability.
Dave Blundin
AI30%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
247_003
Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI35%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-25
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
236_036
Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy35%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-30
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-02
246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics32%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-03
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-03
247_001
xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer
Peter Diamandis
AI42%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-16
FUT_002
Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali...
Superforecaster Community
AI40%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-28
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2025-11-05
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-22
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-17
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-08
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.60polymarket
2025-10-10
INF_039
Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v...
Alex Finn
Consumer77%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-25
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.60polymarket
2025-10-09
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-01
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-27
237_017
The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.
Alex Finn
Markets/Stocks45%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-17
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-08
AUT_022
2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-...
Morgan Stanley
Auto/Transport47%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-19
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.60polymarket
2025-10-09
236_011
Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics46%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-04
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-05
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.60
Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 46%)
polymarket
2026-05-04
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.60
O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-04-18
S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS
AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter
agi_general_capability10%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-09
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-04
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-29
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-11
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-11
244_008
If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up
Dara Khosrowshahi
Other53%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-10
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-11
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-17
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)(market prob: 54%)
polymarket
2026-05-19
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-18
235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).
Dave Blundin
AI75%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-20
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-25
S_MARS_2031PLUS
Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-16
234_015
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.60polymarket
2026-01-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.60polymarket
2025-11-25
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-03
247_025
Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-16
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-25
SEM_025
Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.
Joseph Moore
Capital Markets55%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
239_004
xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026
Elon Musk
AI40%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-26
AI_021
The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca...
Andrew Yang
Labor/Jobs46%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-07
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-07
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-01-02
248_010
AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).
Dave Blundin
AI31%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-24
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-29
235_041
Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars.
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks41%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-01
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-09
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-30
TK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-30
242_007
Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value
Prediction markets
Markets/Stocks45%
0.60
O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 49%)
polymarket
2026-05-31
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-10
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-10
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-10
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 48%)
polymarket
2026-06-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
232_021
No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics75%
0.60
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-06-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-22
IND_016
By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca...
Gwynne Shotwell
Space22%
0.60
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5(market prob: 55%)
polymarket
2026-06-06
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-12
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-06-09
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-19
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
248_014
If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.
Alex Wissner-Gross
AI32%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-13
246_023
Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.
PolyMarket
AI43%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-21
TK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-29
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2025-11-12
234_035
Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics50%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60
Spread: Pistons (-10.5)(market prob: 50%)
polymarket
2026-04-28
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
234_043
Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book value
Alex Wissner-Gross
Education35%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
236_036
Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy35%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-06
240_045
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Alex Wissner-Gross
Geopolitics39%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-09
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
235_017
OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks48%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-02
SPC_001
The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape.
Morgan Stanley
Space60%
0.60polymarket
2026-01-07
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-08
242_010
By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-31
SEM_023
No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.
Joseph Moore
Semis/Markets63%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-09
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-24
235_016
SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Space31%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-02
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-14
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.60polymarket
2026-02-16
232_059
Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger.
Alex Wissner-Gross
Macro/Economy34%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-29
IND_021
February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte...
Jack Dorsey
Labor/Jobs74%
0.60polymarket
2025-10-09
246_006
OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks45%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-29
IND_021
February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte...
Jack Dorsey
Labor/Jobs74%
0.60polymarket
2025-09-29
INF_068
2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure.
Michael Saylor
Crypto34%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-02
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-25
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-08
AUT_022
2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-...
Morgan Stanley
Auto/Transport47%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-25
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-08
COD_SPC_002
The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028
Codex Research Pack
Space22%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-30
247_001
xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer
Peter Diamandis
AI42%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-30
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-02
242_035
S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years
Dave Blundin
Markets/Stocks50%
0.60polymarket
2025-11-12
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-08
242_010
By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics
Dave Blundin
AI50%
0.60polymarket
2025-12-08
243_001
Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing
Dara Khosrowshahi
Auto/Transport44%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-22
240_046
Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days
Alex Wissner-Gross
Media/Ads43%
0.60polymarket
2025-11-12
236_012
An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks
Andrew Yang
Geopolitics51%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-27
232_006
YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content.
Peter Diamandis
Media/Ads51%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-22
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-22
235_007
AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.
Dave Blundin
Geopolitics45%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-23
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2025-07-08
238_061
Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028
Dave Blundin
Macro/Economy50%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-01
246_004
SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks50%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-29
247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Alex Wissner-Gross
Robotics65%
0.60polymarket
2025-10-09
AUT_022
2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-...
Morgan Stanley
Auto/Transport47%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-04
S_MARS_2026
Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
mars_uncrewed_landing25%
0.60polymarket
2026-03-05
FUT_024
XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...
Superforecaster Community
AI100%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-16
INF_011
Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets.
Morgan Stanley
Macro/Economy92%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-02
244_008
If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up
Dara Khosrowshahi
Other53%
0.60polymarket
2026-04-26
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-08
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%
0.60
Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-05-03
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.60polymarket
2025-11-12
232_013
Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.
Jimmy Ba
AI47%
0.60
Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%)
polymarket
2026-05-10
246_022
Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).
PolyMarket
AI45%
0.60polymarket
2026-05-10
234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
Peter Diamandis
Markets/Stocks67%