Validations Queue
64,690 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 27 of 75, 100 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
Pending (total)
64,690
Reviewed
13
Filtered
7,461
page 27 / 75
Showing on page
100
Filters
URL params control source + min-similarity threshold
Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
Source0 selected · 0 visible
Bulk action
| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-01 | IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-01 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-02 | COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 33% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Vietnam's real GDP grow by at least 12% in 2026(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | SEM_010 AI will quintuple the world's gross domestic product, expanding it from $100 trillion to $500 trillion. Jensen Huang | Macro/Economy | 8% | |
| 0.62 | US Gas Price $4.250 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin $80K in June?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-07 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.62 | Do you like 58% odds?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 239_017 Future is 80%+ likely to be great Elon Musk | Other | 50% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-13 | 229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before June 20?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will TheTechQuant reach 200 followers by Jun 1 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.62 | Will TheTechQuant reach 200 followers by Jun 1 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.62 | Will the Bitcoin block height increase by 145+ blocks?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Kamala announce a run in 2028(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.62 | Will ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 243_019 Autonomous will become a very big part of developed markets, cost curves will come down Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | ||
| 0.62 | Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.62 | Will WA SWIS 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$135/MWh?(market prob: 25%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 56% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-04 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.62 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 142(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.62 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 142(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-07 | AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk | AI | 17% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-09 | 242_004 Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-10 | 234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Xi Jingping visit US before 2027?(market prob: 86%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-14 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.62 | Will AI psychosis make it into the DSM6?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will AI psychosis make it into the DSM6?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis | AI | 40% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-18 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | ||
| 0.62 | Will there be a trend spike for The Third Man Theme before 2038?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs | Labor/Jobs | 39% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | $10m prize for 100m record claimed in 2027(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Unicode remove an existing emoji before the end of 2030?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque | Labor/Jobs | 40% | |
| 0.62 | Will this market get between 50-100 unique traders?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will I bet on this market?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-02 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | Bitcoin $65K in June?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Micron closes above $1,100 at end of month?(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum trade below $1700 in June?(market prob: 80%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 242_038 Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 35% | |
| 0.62 | Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 230_035 GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 32% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.62 | Will May 2026 headline CPI rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 74%) | manifold 2026-06-03 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 234_021 OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 230_022 Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. Elon Musk | Robotics | 31% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Anthropic remove the data retention rule on Fable 5 before July?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.62 | Will England become a US state before 2045?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis | AI | 59% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | US-Iran negotiations resume before June 2026? (check description)(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-29 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.62 | Will the Great Pyramid of Giza Big Void be explored in 2026?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 248_026 Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 46% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-04 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | ||
| 0.62 | Will I speak to a human in the next week?(market prob: 72%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 237_011 AI agents will have voices in the near future. Alex Finn | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.62 | I go through the scaling book this week?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | |
| 0.62 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 902(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-09 | AI_020 NVIDIA will launch a 'space computing' push via the specialized Vera Rubin Space Module — bringing AI infrastructure, geospatial intelligence, and autonomous operations into low Earth orbit, then to autonomous lunar manufacturing bases. NVIDIA | Space | 36% | ||
| 0.62 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 59752(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.62 | BTC closes above $85k at end of month?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 153(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-14 | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | 20% | |
| 0.62 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 240_016 Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | will there be a new llm release by the end of may?(market prob: 98%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.62 | Will AI psychosis make it into the DSM6?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 248_024 AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 46% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 241_063 America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.62 | Do you like 2% odds?(market prob: 2%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 239_017 Future is 80%+ likely to be great Elon Musk | Other | 50% |