Probability-Mass Flow (Humanoid deployment)

Each horizontal band is a scenario branch; band height = scenario prior probability (taller = more likely). Predictions linked to a scenario sit inside that band at their expected resolution date. Visual area answers "what is likely to happen and when."

Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)AGIASI$1T+ IPOMars uncrewedAI pauseRecession
HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026prior 40%2026-11SEM_041 · Robotics · prob 42% · resolves 2025-11 · At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad229_034 · Robotics · prob 39% · resolves 2026-06 · Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.229_030 · Robotics · prob 17% · resolves 2026-06 · If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand ex238_015 · Robotics · prob 42% · resolves 2026-07 · Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026)239_011 · Robotics · prob 22% · resolves 2026-07 · Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026239_013 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2026-08 · Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every yearROB_009 · Robotics · prob 18% · resolves 2026-08 · External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K229_002 · Robotics · prob 56% · resolves 2026-09 · Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers.229_001 · Robotics · prob 62% · resolves 2026-09 · Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.AUT_013 · Auto/Transport · prob 15% · resolves 2026-10 · 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United State239_014 · Robotics · prob 33% · resolves 2026-11 · Tesla will build out 10M sq ft Optimus factory238_044 · Biotech/Longevity · prob 32% · resolves 2026-11 · Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems247_045 · Robotics · prob 32% · resolves 2026-11 · 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026COD_ROB_002 · Robotics · prob 31% · resolves 2026-12 · 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026COD_ROB_001 · Robotics · prob 31% · resolves 2026-12 · Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days 239_012 · Robotics · prob 31% · resolves 2027-07 · Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027COD_ROB_003 · Robotics · prob 33% · resolves 2027-12 · At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027247_043 · Robotics · prob 26% · resolves 2028-06 · Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector229_005 · Robotics · prob 36% · resolves 2028-11 · The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.229_011 · Markets/Stocks · prob 36% · resolves 2028-11 · The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of huma229_014 · Robotics · prob 35% · resolves 2028-11 · Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion.229_016 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2028-11 · Figure will scale manufacturing from thousands to tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands to millINF_025 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2029-09 · Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a cent229_023 · Robotics · prob 38% · resolves 2029-10 · First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.230_007 · Robotics · prob 39% · resolves 2030-06 · Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots.230_021 · Robotics · prob 36% · resolves 2030-06 · Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.CMQ_050 · Robotics · prob 41% · resolves 2030-09 · Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and229_017 · Robotics · prob 34% · resolves 2030-11 · Long term, robot cost will fall to $10,000-$20,000 per unit.230_022 · Robotics · prob 31% · resolves 2030-11 · Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.229_046 · Robotics · prob 28% · resolves 2031-09 · Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once software enables it.236_021 · Robotics · prob 24% · resolves 2034-11 · Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)AI_030 · Robotics · prob 35% · resolves 2035-11 · By 2035, synthetic humanoid workers will physically outnumber human employees in corporate workplaceCMQ_054 · Macro/Economy · prob 22% · resolves 2035-12 · Humanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a 'future of abundance',CMQ_051 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2040-09 · Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Ear229_010 · Robotics · prob 26% · resolves 2040-10 · Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in cROB_008 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2050-09 · Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains f36 claimsHUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028prior 50%2028-11SEM_041 · Robotics · prob 42% · resolves 2025-11 · At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad229_033 · Robotics · prob 40% · resolves 2026-02 · Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3229_030 · Robotics · prob 17% · resolves 2026-06 · If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand ex248_020 · Robotics · prob 40% · resolves 2026-06 · Jevons paradox: bandwidth demand will explode as 10 billion robots and AVs need connectivity.234_025 · Robotics · prob 35% · resolves 2026-06 · Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots238_015 · Robotics · prob 42% · resolves 2026-07 · Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026)229_001 · Robotics · prob 62% · resolves 2026-09 · Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.229_002 · Robotics · prob 56% · resolves 2026-09 · Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers.235_005 · AI · prob 49% · resolves 2026-09 · AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.239_003 · AI · prob 47% · resolves 2026-09 · We are currently in AI hard takeoffAUT_021 · AI · prob 57% · resolves 2026-11 · Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to CMQ_052 · Robotics · prob 22% · resolves 2026-11 · Humanoid robot price will drop to ~$20K-$30K per unit — leased cost ~$500/month for a 24/7 robotic lCOD_ROB_001 · Robotics · prob 31% · resolves 2026-12 · Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days CMQ_020 · Macro/Economy · prob 67% · resolves 2026-12 · Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy byAI_003 · Macro/Economy · prob 52% · resolves 2026-12 · AI-native companies are currently compressing what traditionally took a decade to reach $100 millionSPC_028 · Labor/Jobs · prob 37% · resolves 2026-12 · Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutionsIND_007 · Labor/Jobs · prob 42% · resolves 2026-12 · Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — 247_027 · AI · prob 39% · resolves 2027-06 · Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendorCMQ_014 · AI/Compute · prob 50% · resolves 2027-12 · Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, driven by exponentially laCOD_ROB_003 · Robotics · prob 33% · resolves 2027-12 · At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027247_043 · Robotics · prob 26% · resolves 2028-06 · Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector232_005 · Labor/Jobs · prob 42% · resolves 2028-06 · Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast.239_024 · Biotech/Longevity · prob 43% · resolves 2028-11 · Everyone on Earth will have better medical care than today's richest person242_050 · Robotics · prob 42% · resolves 2028-11 · Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain229_035 · Space · prob 20% · resolves 2028-11 · Humanoids will eventually be used in space (including zero-G assembly of space data centers) and oth229_016 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2028-11 · Figure will scale manufacturing from thousands to tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands to mill229_019 · Robotics · prob 30% · resolves 2028-11 · Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will be niche.229_024 · Robotics · prob 41% · resolves 2028-11 · Figure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, 10 million homes on229_012 · Robotics · prob 38% · resolves 2028-11 · Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space.229_031 · Robotics · prob 38% · resolves 2028-11 · At some point, you'll walk out in a city (likely San Francisco first) and see more humanoids than hu229_011 · Markets/Stocks · prob 36% · resolves 2028-11 · The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of huma229_014 · Robotics · prob 35% · resolves 2028-11 · Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion.229_038 · Macro/Economy · prob 23% · resolves 2028-11 · Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent229_040 · Robotics · prob 43% · resolves 2028-11 · When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millimeter' of every other ta229_042 · AI · prob 40% · resolves 2028-11 · Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not mult229_044 · AI · prob 35% · resolves 2028-11 · Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots br229_045 · Robotics · prob 28% · resolves 2028-11 · Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoid is the bet.234_049 · Space · prob 36% · resolves 2028-11 · First lunar and Mars cities will be built from scratch via humanoid robot construction229_005 · Robotics · prob 36% · resolves 2028-11 · The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.236_022 · Robotics · prob 39% · resolves 2028-11 · Robots will build data centers in foreseeable time frameROB_018 · Macro/Economy · prob 52% · resolves 2028-12 · The 'Enterprise Singularity' — Amazon will soon become the first major corporation where robots cont240_038 · Labor/Jobs · prob 35% · resolves 2029-03 · Amazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humansINF_025 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2029-09 · Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a cent230_021 · Robotics · prob 36% · resolves 2030-06 · Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.230_007 · Robotics · prob 39% · resolves 2030-06 · Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots.CMQ_050 · Robotics · prob 41% · resolves 2030-09 · Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and229_017 · Robotics · prob 34% · resolves 2030-11 · Long term, robot cost will fall to $10,000-$20,000 per unit.234_032 · Robotics · prob 29% · resolves 2030-11 · Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillionFUT_004 · AI · prob 62% · resolves 2031-09 · Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primaryROB_007 · Robotics · prob 41% · resolves 2035-09 · The technology sector is crossing a $1 trillion computing inflection point transitioning from retrieAI_030 · Robotics · prob 35% · resolves 2035-11 · By 2035, synthetic humanoid workers will physically outnumber human employees in corporate workplace247_044 · Robotics · prob 28% · resolves 2036-08 · Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentsROB_005 · Robotics · prob 47% · resolves 2036-10 · True AGI requires 'physical intelligence' — an AGI system must be able to control a robotic chassis CMQ_051 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2040-09 · Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Ear229_010 · Robotics · prob 26% · resolves 2040-10 · Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in cROB_008 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2050-09 · Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains f56 claimsHUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030prior 20%2030-11SEM_041 · Robotics · prob 42% · resolves 2025-11 · At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad229_002 · Robotics · prob 56% · resolves 2026-09 · Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers.IND_023 · Robotics · prob 22% · resolves 2026-10 · 'Cambrian explosion of bipedal labor' driven by hundreds of robotics companies — autonomy graduates AUT_013 · Auto/Transport · prob 15% · resolves 2026-10 · 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United StateCMQ_052 · Robotics · prob 22% · resolves 2026-11 · Humanoid robot price will drop to ~$20K-$30K per unit — leased cost ~$500/month for a 24/7 robotic l247_045 · Robotics · prob 32% · resolves 2026-11 · 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026CMQ_056 · AI/Compute · prob 19% · resolves 2026-12 · Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humCOD_ROB_001 · Robotics · prob 31% · resolves 2026-12 · Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days CMQ_045 · Semis · prob 43% · resolves 2026-12 · Agentic AI will create additional CPU market space of $10B-$100B by 2030, potentially driving total 247_027 · AI · prob 39% · resolves 2027-06 · Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor229_021 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2027-08 · In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.240_041 · AI · prob 45% · resolves 2027-09 · Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year229_026 · Robotics · prob 38% · resolves 2027-09 · By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibINF_001 · AI · prob 48% · resolves 2027-11 · Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobiCOD_ROB_003 · Robotics · prob 33% · resolves 2027-12 · At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027247_043 · Robotics · prob 26% · resolves 2028-06 · Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector229_012 · Robotics · prob 38% · resolves 2028-11 · Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space.229_005 · Robotics · prob 36% · resolves 2028-11 · The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.242_050 · Robotics · prob 42% · resolves 2028-11 · Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain229_011 · Markets/Stocks · prob 36% · resolves 2028-11 · The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of humaINF_025 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2029-09 · Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a cent230_007 · Robotics · prob 39% · resolves 2030-06 · Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots.INF_023 · Robotics · prob 36% · resolves 2030-09 · Data-center physical shells will be increasingly erected by 3D-printing and robotic-assembly systemsCMQ_050 · Robotics · prob 41% · resolves 2030-09 · Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and229_017 · Robotics · prob 34% · resolves 2030-11 · Long term, robot cost will fall to $10,000-$20,000 per unit.229_018 · Robotics · prob 28% · resolves 2030-11 · In the future, everything that moves (besides humans) will be a robot.229_029 · Robotics · prob 33% · resolves 2030-11 · Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to autonomous cars.229_039 · Robotics · prob 28% · resolves 2030-11 · Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into future humanoids.229_041 · Other · prob 37% · resolves 2030-11 · Robots will bring abundance and a 'sci-fi future' where it will 'feel like 2080 up in here.'234_032 · Robotics · prob 29% · resolves 2030-11 · Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion236_020 · Robotics · prob 31% · resolves 2030-11 · No robot plumbers or HVAC repair people anytime soon240_047 · Robotics · prob 36% · resolves 2030-11 · Physical AI will be at least double the market opportunity of digital AI241_002 · Robotics · prob 31% · resolves 2030-11 · Robots will take longer than digital/software systems to have impact243_030 · Robotics · prob 31% · resolves 2030-11 · Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots243_039 · Robotics · prob 39% · resolves 2030-11 · Uber will work with drone delivery companies including Zipline, Sky Trax, Manna244_010 · Robotics · prob 41% · resolves 2030-11 · Machines will be more predictable than human drivers with higher acceptance rates246_055 · AI · prob 45% · resolves 2030-11 · We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens.INF_009 · AI · prob 17% · resolves 2030-11 · The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing haFUT_005 · Biotech/Longevity · prob 50% · resolves 2031-06 · Emergence of 'Living Intelligence' 2026-2031: violent transformative convergence between biological ROB_007 · Robotics · prob 41% · resolves 2035-09 · The technology sector is crossing a $1 trillion computing inflection point transitioning from retrieAI_030 · Robotics · prob 35% · resolves 2035-11 · By 2035, synthetic humanoid workers will physically outnumber human employees in corporate workplaceCMQ_054 · Macro/Economy · prob 22% · resolves 2035-12 · Humanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a 'future of abundance',SEM_009 · Economy · prob 30% · resolves 2035-12 · The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaireAI_007 · AI · prob 38% · resolves 2039-08 · Technological singularity arrives by 2039 — computing capacity matches the human brain, AI processesCMQ_051 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2040-09 · Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on EarROB_008 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2050-09 · Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains f46 claimsHUMANOID_MASS_2033prior 10%2033-12SEM_041 · Robotics · prob 42% · resolves 2025-11 · At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity ad229_030 · Robotics · prob 17% · resolves 2026-06 · If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand ex234_025 · Robotics · prob 35% · resolves 2026-06 · Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots248_038 · Robotics · prob 34% · resolves 2026-06 · We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash.229_002 · Robotics · prob 56% · resolves 2026-09 · Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers.247_006 · AI · prob 50% · resolves 2026-09 · Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026229_020 · Robotics · prob 20% · resolves 2026-09 · By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon w247_045 · Robotics · prob 32% · resolves 2026-11 · 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026229_021 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2027-08 · In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.229_026 · Robotics · prob 38% · resolves 2027-09 · By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibCMQ_007 · AI · prob 41% · resolves 2027-10 · Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030.CMQ_004 · AI · prob 28% · resolves 2027-11 · AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrivCOD_ROB_003 · Robotics · prob 33% · resolves 2027-12 · At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027247_043 · Robotics · prob 26% · resolves 2028-06 · Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector242_050 · Robotics · prob 42% · resolves 2028-11 · Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain229_011 · Markets/Stocks · prob 36% · resolves 2028-11 · The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of huma229_005 · Robotics · prob 36% · resolves 2028-11 · The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.229_012 · Robotics · prob 38% · resolves 2028-11 · Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space.229_019 · Robotics · prob 30% · resolves 2028-11 · Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will be niche.INF_025 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2029-09 · Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a cent229_023 · Robotics · prob 38% · resolves 2029-10 · First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.235_004 · Labor/Jobs · prob 46% · resolves 2029-12 · Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism.241_029 · Robotics · prob 28% · resolves 2030-06 · Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time230_007 · Robotics · prob 39% · resolves 2030-06 · Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots.CMQ_050 · Robotics · prob 41% · resolves 2030-09 · Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and234_032 · Robotics · prob 29% · resolves 2030-11 · Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion229_017 · Robotics · prob 34% · resolves 2030-11 · Long term, robot cost will fall to $10,000-$20,000 per unit.230_022 · Robotics · prob 31% · resolves 2030-11 · Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.236_021 · Robotics · prob 24% · resolves 2034-11 · Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)AI_030 · Robotics · prob 35% · resolves 2035-11 · By 2035, synthetic humanoid workers will physically outnumber human employees in corporate workplaceCMQ_054 · Macro/Economy · prob 22% · resolves 2035-12 · Humanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a 'future of abundance',247_044 · Robotics · prob 28% · resolves 2036-08 · Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentsSPC_023 · AI · prob 18% · resolves 2036-11 · Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI_007 · AI · prob 38% · resolves 2039-08 · Technological singularity arrives by 2039 — computing capacity matches the human brain, AI processesCMQ_051 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2040-09 · Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Ear229_010 · Robotics · prob 26% · resolves 2040-10 · Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in cROB_008 · Robotics · prob 37% · resolves 2050-09 · Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains f37 claimstoday202620272028202920302031

How to read this

  • Tall bands are high-prior futures — the network thinks they're most likely.
  • Dots inside a band are the tracked claims linked to that scenario. Click any dot to drill in.
  • Dashed colored vertical line = the scenario's own resolution date. Scenarios with target_window_end past the right edge resolve "beyond horizon."
  • Claims appearing in multiple bands (Phase 2A's cosine-linked correlate edges often link a prediction to several scenarios) just render in each band they touch — a hint the claim is scenario-robust.