Probability-Mass Flow (Energy / grid)

Each horizontal band is a scenario branch; band height = scenario prior probability (taller = more likely). Predictions linked to a scenario sit inside that band at their expected resolution date. Visual area answers "what is likely to happen and when."

Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)AGIASI$1T+ IPOMars uncrewedAI pauseRecession
GRID_50GW_2027prior 40%2027-12240_058 · AI · prob 38% · resolves 2026-06 · OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans241_020 · Energy · prob 49% · resolves 2026-06 · 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers241_044 · Energy · prob 52% · resolves 2026-06 · Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support241_059 · Energy · prob 54% · resolves 2026-06 · Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems248_035 · Markets/Stocks · prob 47% · resolves 2026-06 · Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if ident238_047 · Energy · prob 45% · resolves 2026-10 · US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solarINF_014 · Energy · prob 42% · resolves 2026-10 · Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered p241_016 · Energy · prob 51% · resolves 2026-10 · 92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030240_034 · Energy · prob 47% · resolves 2026-11 · Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028247_048 · Energy · prob 43% · resolves 2026-11 · Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollarCMQ_017 · Energy · prob 52% · resolves 2026-11 · US electricity production must grow by 'tens of percent' by end of decade to support hundreds of mil235_022 · Energy · prob 53% · resolves 2026-11 · US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year.CMQ_020 · Macro/Economy · prob 67% · resolves 2026-12 · Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy byINF_034 · Real Estate · prob 54% · resolves 2026-12 · Equinix has 56 planned data-center projects including 13 xScale developments designed for high-densiINF_007 · AI · prob 43% · resolves 2027-09 · OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that pINF_001 · AI · prob 48% · resolves 2027-11 · Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobi240_017 · Energy · prob 35% · resolves 2027-11 · Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massive energy buildoutINF_017 · Energy · prob 48% · resolves 2027-11 · xAI Colossus Phase 2 will consume approximately 1.5 gigawatts of power — city-scale demand for a sinAUT_009 · AI · prob 22% · resolves 2027-11 · 'Powerful AI' (functional AGI) arrives 2026-2027 — data centers house a 'nation of geniuses' consistCMQ_014 · AI/Compute · prob 50% · resolves 2027-12 · Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, driven by exponentially la236_039 · Energy · prob 39% · resolves 2028-06 · Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumers241_023 · Energy · prob 49% · resolves 2028-06 · 10% of US electricity will be used by data centers246_036 · AI · prob 46% · resolves 2028-09 · Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt.INF_010 · Energy · prob 56% · resolves 2028-11 · US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — sINF_012 · Energy · prob 46% · resolves 2028-11 · AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparablAI_018 · Energy · prob 49% · resolves 2028-11 · Global data center construction spend will reach approximately $2.9 trillion through 2028 — early adSEM_005 · AI/Infrastructure · prob 72% · resolves 2028-12 · Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025238_046 · Energy · prob 44% · resolves 2029-10 · xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale238_066 · Energy · prob 41% · resolves 2029-10 · Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football to235_023 · Energy · prob 48% · resolves 2029-11 · Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis.232_045 · Energy · prob 48% · resolves 2030-06 · Tesla and SpaceX each aim to generate 100 gigawatts of solar per year.CMQ_022 · AI · prob 34% · resolves 2030-10 · AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute deployment and nINF_056 · Energy · prob 46% · resolves 2030-10 · Helion will supply OpenAI with 5 gigawatts of fusion electricity by 2030 (roughly 100 Helion 50-MW rINF_048 · Energy · prob 48% · resolves 2030-11 · Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175SEM_001 · AI/Compute · prob 55% · resolves 2030-12 · Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six monthsFUT_019 · Biotech/Longevity · prob 31% · resolves 2031-06 · Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031:241_021 · Markets/Stocks · prob 47% · resolves 2031-09 · America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout231_030 · Energy · prob 49% · resolves 2031-10 · US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited).FUT_018 · Energy · prob 39% · resolves 2031-11 · Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradianceINF_057 · Energy · prob 43% · resolves 2035-11 · Helion will scale to 50 gigawatts of fusion-generated power to OpenAI by 2035 — equivalent to more t240_035 · Energy · prob 46% · resolves 2035-11 · Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035INF_044 · Energy · prob 48% · resolves 2035-11 · US total energy consumption will rise by approximately 10% over the next decade — the largest sustai42 claimsGRID_50GW_2029prior 50%2029-12241_044 · Energy · prob 52% · resolves 2026-06 · Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support241_059 · Energy · prob 54% · resolves 2026-06 · Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems238_047 · Energy · prob 45% · resolves 2026-10 · US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar247_048 · Energy · prob 43% · resolves 2026-11 · Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar235_022 · Energy · prob 53% · resolves 2026-11 · US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year.INF_055 · Energy · prob 28% · resolves 2028-11 · Helion Energy will deliver the world's first commercial fusion electricity — the 50 MW Orion plant i238_046 · Energy · prob 44% · resolves 2029-10 · xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale238_066 · Energy · prob 41% · resolves 2029-10 · Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football to238_067 · Energy · prob 41% · resolves 2029-10 · US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fi246_018 · Energy · prob 36% · resolves 2029-11 · Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data cente247_049 · Energy · prob 45% · resolves 2029-11 · Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physics242_008 · Energy · prob 40% · resolves 2029-11 · Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensedINF_046 · Geopolitics · prob 62% · resolves 2030-11 · Governments worldwide will increasingly prioritize absolute energy independence, pursuing self-suffiFUT_018 · Energy · prob 39% · resolves 2031-11 · Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradianceINF_057 · Energy · prob 43% · resolves 2035-11 · Helion will scale to 50 gigawatts of fusion-generated power to OpenAI by 2035 — equivalent to more t15 claimsGRID_50GW_DELAYEDprior 10%2032-12241_059 · Energy · prob 54% · resolves 2026-06 · Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems241_044 · Energy · prob 52% · resolves 2026-06 · Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support238_047 · Energy · prob 45% · resolves 2026-10 · US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar241_016 · Energy · prob 51% · resolves 2026-10 · 92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030235_022 · Energy · prob 53% · resolves 2026-11 · US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year.247_048 · Energy · prob 43% · resolves 2026-11 · Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollarCMQ_017 · Energy · prob 52% · resolves 2026-11 · US electricity production must grow by 'tens of percent' by end of decade to support hundreds of mil238_046 · Energy · prob 44% · resolves 2029-10 · xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scaleINF_013 · Energy · prob 59% · resolves 2030-10 · Natural gas will meet approximately 20% of the world's new power needs outside China through the latINF_048 · Energy · prob 48% · resolves 2030-11 · Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175FUT_018 · Energy · prob 39% · resolves 2031-11 · Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance238_048 · Geopolitics · prob 45% · resolves 2032-11 · US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt)INF_057 · Energy · prob 43% · resolves 2035-11 · Helion will scale to 50 gigawatts of fusion-generated power to OpenAI by 2035 — equivalent to more t13 claimstoday202620272028202920302031

How to read this

  • Tall bands are high-prior futures — the network thinks they're most likely.
  • Dots inside a band are the tracked claims linked to that scenario. Click any dot to drill in.
  • Dashed colored vertical line = the scenario's own resolution date. Scenarios with target_window_end past the right edge resolve "beyond horizon."
  • Claims appearing in multiple bands (Phase 2A's cosine-linked correlate edges often link a prediction to several scenarios) just render in each band they touch — a hint the claim is scenario-robust.