Probability-Mass Flow (Recession)

Each horizontal band is a scenario branch; band height = scenario prior probability (taller = more likely). Predictions linked to a scenario sit inside that band at their expected resolution date. Visual area answers "what is likely to happen and when."

Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)AGIASI$1T+ IPOMars uncrewedAI pauseRecession
RECESSION_2026prior 20%2026-12SEM_030 · Capital Markets · prob 43% · resolves 2026-12 · S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (nINF_047 · Macro/Economy · prob 35% · resolves 2026-12 · 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivitAUT_007 · Macro/Economy · prob 13% · resolves 2026-12 · 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity incre246_045 · Macro/Economy · prob 45% · resolves 2026-12 · Post-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching.239_030 · Macro/Economy · prob 37% · resolves 2026-12 · 1000x current economy would saturate human desires239_021 · Macro/Economy · prob 35% · resolves 2026-12 · Money will stop being relevant at some point238_054 · Macro/Economy · prob 45% · resolves 2026-12 · Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less val236_001 · Macro/Economy · prob 35% · resolves 2026-12 · Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneouslyAI_021 · Labor/Jobs · prob 46% · resolves 2027-12 · The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-careeIND_025 · Macro/Economy · prob 23% · resolves 2027-12 · Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, fAI_013 · Markets/Stocks · prob 35% · resolves 2028-09 · 'SaaSpocalypse' — traditional Software-as-a-Service incumbents (Salesforce, Adobe, HubSpot) will see238_061 · Macro/Economy · prob 50% · resolves 2028-12 · Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028CYB_028 · Markets/Stocks · prob 48% · resolves 2030-09 · The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and sAI_026 · Macro/Economy · prob 32% · resolves 2030-12 · AI is executing a catastrophic repricing of legacy software stocks and a total 'demonetization of huFUT_007 · Macro/Economy · prob 41% · resolves 2031-12 · Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort traFUT_022 · Macro/Economy · prob 72% · resolves 2031-12 · Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic 16 claimsRECESSION_2027prior 30%2027-12SEM_030 · Capital Markets · prob 43% · resolves 2026-12 · S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (nINF_047 · Macro/Economy · prob 35% · resolves 2026-12 · 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivit238_053 · Macro/Economy · prob 42% · resolves 2027-12 · Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innovation is now the norm238_055 · Macro/Economy · prob 50% · resolves 2027-12 · Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing239_019 · Macro/Economy · prob 40% · resolves 2027-12 · Deflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growth239_023 · Macro/Economy · prob 41% · resolves 2027-12 · AI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcy240_059 · Macro/Economy · prob 38% · resolves 2027-12 · AI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materialsIND_025 · Macro/Economy · prob 23% · resolves 2027-12 · Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, f238_061 · Macro/Economy · prob 50% · resolves 2028-12 · Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028235_003 · Markets/Stocks · prob 55% · resolves 2029-11 · First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade.234_014 · Markets/Stocks · prob 59% · resolves 2031-11 · We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year periodFUT_007 · Macro/Economy · prob 41% · resolves 2031-12 · Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort tra230_035 · Macro/Economy · prob 32% · resolves 2033-12 · GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.239_001 · Macro/Economy · prob 38% · resolves 2036-12 · Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years14 claimsRECESSION_2028prior 30%2028-12240_040 · Macro/Economy · prob 38% · resolves 2028-12 · Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desire236_036 · Macro/Economy · prob 35% · resolves 2028-12 · Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economyROB_015 · Labor/Jobs · prob 38% · resolves 2028-12 · The 2025-2028 period is defined by massive automation/job displacement equivalent to 25 years of Ind238_061 · Macro/Economy · prob 50% · resolves 2028-12 · Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028247_017 · Macro/Economy · prob 35% · resolves 2028-12 · Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventually238_056 · Macro/Economy · prob 30% · resolves 2028-12 · Capital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for first time in history)242_056 · Macro/Economy · prob 25% · resolves 2028-12 · AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses244_028 · Macro/Economy · prob 40% · resolves 2028-12 · Labor ownership of assets is a positive direction society will move inFUT_022 · Macro/Economy · prob 72% · resolves 2031-12 · Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic FUT_007 · Macro/Economy · prob 41% · resolves 2031-12 · Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort tra230_035 · Macro/Economy · prob 32% · resolves 2033-12 · GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.239_001 · Macro/Economy · prob 38% · resolves 2036-12 · Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years240_042 · Macro/Economy · prob 50% · resolves 2036-12 · Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number)13 claimsNO_RECESSION_5Yprior 20%2031-12241_055 · Space · prob 51% · resolves 2026-06 · Next frontier of AI infrastructure is spaceAUT_007 · Macro/Economy · prob 13% · resolves 2026-12 · 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increCMQ_020 · Macro/Economy · prob 67% · resolves 2026-12 · Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy byCMQ_021 · Macro/Economy · prob 71% · resolves 2026-12 · AI has transitioned from a thematic technology disruption to a primary macroeconomic variable influeIND_011 · Macro/Economy · prob 58% · resolves 2026-12 · 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatboIND_019 · Labor/Jobs · prob 47% · resolves 2026-12 · 2026 is the year AI's impact on workers fundamentally comes into focus — near-term 4% net reduction INF_047 · Macro/Economy · prob 35% · resolves 2026-12 · 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivitIND_025 · Macro/Economy · prob 23% · resolves 2027-12 · Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, fSEM_023 · Semis/Markets · prob 63% · resolves 2027-12 · No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' gro231_050 · Macro/Economy · prob 53% · resolves 2028-06 · New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it.IND_015 · Macro/Economy · prob 26% · resolves 2028-12 · Integration of open agentic systems drives near-term 'economic inversion' — arrival of 'AI CEO' in 2242_056 · Macro/Economy · prob 25% · resolves 2028-12 · AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businessesCYB_028 · Markets/Stocks · prob 48% · resolves 2030-09 · The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and sAI_001 · AI · prob 33% · resolves 2030-11 · AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable domains by 2030, extending 247_020 · Labor/Jobs · prob 50% · resolves 2030-12 · Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustmentINF_003 · Macro/Economy · prob 43% · resolves 2030-12 · The global AI infrastructure buildout is in its earliest phase — only a few hundred billion of a triFUT_022 · Macro/Economy · prob 72% · resolves 2031-12 · Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic 232_022 · Macro/Economy · prob 42% · resolves 2031-12 · Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI.SEM_010 · Macro/Economy · prob 8% · resolves 2036-12 · AI will quintuple the world's gross domestic product, expanding it from $100 trillion to $500 trilli19 claimstoday202620272028202920302031

How to read this

  • Tall bands are high-prior futures — the network thinks they're most likely.
  • Dots inside a band are the tracked claims linked to that scenario. Click any dot to drill in.
  • Dashed colored vertical line = the scenario's own resolution date. Scenarios with target_window_end past the right edge resolve "beyond horizon."
  • Claims appearing in multiple bands (Phase 2A's cosine-linked correlate edges often link a prediction to several scenarios) just render in each band they touch — a hint the claim is scenario-robust.