Probability-Mass Flow ($1T+ IPO)

Each horizontal band is a scenario branch; band height = scenario prior probability (taller = more likely). Predictions linked to a scenario sit inside that band at their expected resolution date. Visual area answers "what is likely to happen and when."

Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)AGIASI$1T+ IPOMars uncrewedAI pauseRecession
IPO_TRILLION_2026prior 25%2026-11235_016 · Space · prob 31% · resolves 2026-04 · SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).246_004 · Markets/Stocks · prob 50% · resolves 2026-05 · SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.247_003 · AI · prob 35% · resolves 2026-06 · Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO239_004 · AI · prob 40% · resolves 2026-06 · xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026240_055 · Markets/Stocks · prob 47% · resolves 2026-06 · Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon235_011 · Markets/Stocks · prob 47% · resolves 2026-06 · PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure.246_007 · Markets/Stocks · prob 35% · resolves 2026-06 · SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026.247_010 · AI · prob 45% · resolves 2026-06 · Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory235_017 · Markets/Stocks · prob 48% · resolves 2026-06 · OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.246_001 · Markets/Stocks · prob 79% · resolves 2026-09 · SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.247_001 · AI · prob 46% · resolves 2026-10 · xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summerROB_023 · Space · prob 58% · resolves 2026-11 · SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural bac238_028 · Markets/Stocks · prob 31% · resolves 2026-11 · Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)242_003 · Markets/Stocks · prob 49% · resolves 2026-11 · Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company242_004 · Markets/Stocks · prob 41% · resolves 2026-11 · Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude246_002 · Markets/Stocks · prob 46% · resolves 2026-11 · SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025).234_015 · Markets/Stocks · prob 45% · resolves 2026-11 · Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 monthsSEM_030 · Capital Markets · prob 43% · resolves 2026-12 · S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (nCOD_SPC_003 · Space · prob 42% · resolves 2026-12 · SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026246_008 · Markets/Stocks · prob 62% · resolves 2027-05 · Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view).246_006 · Markets/Stocks · prob 48% · resolves 2027-05 · OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).235_042 · Markets/Stocks · prob 45% · resolves 2027-05 · OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO.236_008 · Markets/Stocks · prob 53% · resolves 2027-09 · First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online246_005 · Markets/Stocks · prob 55% · resolves 2027-11 · OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.232_035 · Markets/Stocks · prob 38% · resolves 2028-06 · Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hostinSPC_002 · Markets/Stocks · prob 45% · resolves 2028-09 · A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — 242_007 · Markets/Stocks · prob 38% · resolves 2028-09 · Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value238_027 · AI · prob 35% · resolves 2029-03 · OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW frINF_024 · Markets/Stocks · prob 80% · resolves 2030-09 · Venture capital will pivot from funding software startups toward financing national AI infrastructurSPC_007 · Markets/Stocks · prob 20% · resolves 2030-11 · SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a rever246_010 · Markets/Stocks · prob 43% · resolves 2031-09 · SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.240_026 · Markets/Stocks · prob 42% · resolves 2040-05 · Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T companySPC_001 · Space · prob 60% · resolves 2040-10 · The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled 33 claimsIPO_TRILLION_2027prior 40%2027-09SEM_006 · AI/Finance · prob 64% · resolves 2025-12 · OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition a235_016 · Space · prob 31% · resolves 2026-04 · SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).246_004 · Markets/Stocks · prob 50% · resolves 2026-05 · SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.240_055 · Markets/Stocks · prob 47% · resolves 2026-06 · Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon235_017 · Markets/Stocks · prob 48% · resolves 2026-06 · OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.247_010 · AI · prob 45% · resolves 2026-06 · Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory246_001 · Markets/Stocks · prob 79% · resolves 2026-09 · SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.247_001 · AI · prob 46% · resolves 2026-10 · xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer231_031 · Markets/Stocks · prob 58% · resolves 2026-11 · OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.234_015 · Markets/Stocks · prob 45% · resolves 2026-11 · Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months242_003 · Markets/Stocks · prob 49% · resolves 2026-11 · Musk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion company235_042 · Markets/Stocks · prob 45% · resolves 2027-05 · OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO.246_006 · Markets/Stocks · prob 48% · resolves 2027-05 · OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).247_007 · AI · prob 50% · resolves 2027-09 · Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027236_008 · Markets/Stocks · prob 53% · resolves 2027-09 · First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online246_005 · Markets/Stocks · prob 55% · resolves 2027-11 · OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.232_035 · Markets/Stocks · prob 38% · resolves 2028-06 · Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hostin242_007 · Markets/Stocks · prob 38% · resolves 2028-09 · Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab valueSPC_002 · Markets/Stocks · prob 45% · resolves 2028-09 · A SpaceX public-market liquidity event will reach a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation target — 234_013 · Markets/Stocks · prob 42% · resolves 2029-05 · Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029CYB_028 · Markets/Stocks · prob 48% · resolves 2030-09 · The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and s235_001 · AI · prob 46% · resolves 2030-10 · Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030.246_010 · Markets/Stocks · prob 43% · resolves 2031-09 · SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.234_014 · Markets/Stocks · prob 59% · resolves 2031-11 · We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period240_026 · Markets/Stocks · prob 42% · resolves 2040-05 · Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T companySPC_001 · Space · prob 60% · resolves 2040-10 · The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled 26 claimsIPO_TRILLION_2028prior 25%2028-09235_016 · Space · prob 31% · resolves 2026-04 · SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).246_004 · Markets/Stocks · prob 50% · resolves 2026-05 · SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.235_011 · Markets/Stocks · prob 47% · resolves 2026-06 · PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure.235_017 · Markets/Stocks · prob 48% · resolves 2026-06 · OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.240_055 · Markets/Stocks · prob 47% · resolves 2026-06 · Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon246_001 · Markets/Stocks · prob 79% · resolves 2026-09 · SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.234_015 · Markets/Stocks · prob 45% · resolves 2026-11 · Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months235_042 · Markets/Stocks · prob 45% · resolves 2027-05 · OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO.236_008 · Markets/Stocks · prob 53% · resolves 2027-09 · First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online246_005 · Markets/Stocks · prob 55% · resolves 2027-11 · OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.238_008 · Markets/Stocks · prob 35% · resolves 2028-09 · Many incumbent companies will be in deep trouble between now and the abundance end-state240_002 · Markets/Stocks · prob 42% · resolves 2028-09 · Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA240_011 · Markets/Stocks · prob 42% · resolves 2028-09 · NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being floored240_022 · Markets/Stocks · prob 45% · resolves 2028-09 · All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars242_007 · Markets/Stocks · prob 38% · resolves 2028-09 · Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value242_034 · Markets/Stocks · prob 38% · resolves 2028-09 · AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x)242_036 · Markets/Stocks · prob 42% · resolves 2028-09 · Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses242_055 · Markets/Stocks · prob 34% · resolves 2028-09 · Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms244_006 · Auto/Transport · prob 43% · resolves 2028-09 · Joby vertiports will need to be designed for mass market with multiple vehicles landing/taking off244_012 · Markets/Stocks · prob 41% · resolves 2028-09 · Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point245_003 · Markets/Stocks · prob 30% · resolves 2028-09 · Colossal's $10B valuation is massively undervalued246_009 · Markets/Stocks · prob 32% · resolves 2028-09 · SpaceX and Tesla will NOT merge absent financial distress or capital need.247_005 · Markets/Stocks · prob 34% · resolves 2028-09 · Harvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBC235_003 · Markets/Stocks · prob 55% · resolves 2029-11 · First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade.CYB_028 · Markets/Stocks · prob 48% · resolves 2030-09 · The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and s234_014 · Markets/Stocks · prob 59% · resolves 2031-11 · We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period26 claimsIPO_TRILLION_NONE_5Yprior 10%2031-12246_005 · Markets/Stocks · prob 55% · resolves 2027-11 · OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.1 claimstoday202620272028202920302031

How to read this

  • Tall bands are high-prior futures — the network thinks they're most likely.
  • Dots inside a band are the tracked claims linked to that scenario. Click any dot to drill in.
  • Dashed colored vertical line = the scenario's own resolution date. Scenarios with target_window_end past the right edge resolve "beyond horizon."
  • Claims appearing in multiple bands (Phase 2A's cosine-linked correlate edges often link a prediction to several scenarios) just render in each band they touch — a hint the claim is scenario-robust.