Probability-Mass Flow (ASI)

Each horizontal band is a scenario branch; band height = scenario prior probability (taller = more likely). Predictions linked to a scenario sit inside that band at their expected resolution date. Visual area answers "what is likely to happen and when."

Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)AGIASI$1T+ IPOMars uncrewedAI pauseRecession
ASI_FAST_2031prior 10%2031-12CMQ_004 · AI · prob 28% · resolves 2027-11 · AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arriv232_055 · AI · prob 35% · resolves 2028-06 · We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.229_046 · Robotics · prob 28% · resolves 2031-09 · Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once software enables it.IND_004 · AI · prob 43% · resolves 2034-09 · True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontro241_043 · AI · prob 36% · resolves 2035-10 · ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade246_053 · AI · prob 43% · resolves 2040-08 · ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon.AI_035 · Other · prob 37% · resolves 2045-12 · In a world where superintelligent AI can perform all economically valuable, scientific, and creative7 claimsASI_MID_2034prior 30%2034-06248_010 · AI · prob 31% · resolves 2026-07 · AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).246_006 · Markets/Stocks · prob 48% · resolves 2027-05 · OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).231_012 · AI · prob 51% · resolves 2027-08 · Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI.CMQ_004 · AI · prob 28% · resolves 2027-11 · AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arriv237_003 · AI · prob 46% · resolves 2027-11 · 12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild.SEM_035 · AI/Cognition · prob 45% · resolves 2027-12 · World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027).CMQ_009 · AI · prob 60% · resolves 2028-08 · Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails 230_025 · AI · prob 52% · resolves 2028-08 · The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century.230_041 · AI · prob 46% · resolves 2028-10 · Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minu248_016 · AI · prob 49% · resolves 2028-11 · ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years.234_002 · AI · prob 45% · resolves 2028-11 · Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everythingSEM_036 · AI/Cognition · prob 70% · resolves 2028-12 · World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028).241_007 · AI · prob 55% · resolves 2029-10 · Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus)235_023 · Energy · prob 48% · resolves 2029-11 · Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis.FUT_002 · AI · prob 40% · resolves 2031-08 · Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading245_044 · Biotech/Longevity · prob 34% · resolves 2034-06 · Northern white rhino saved by synthetic genetic diversity engineering + artificial wombs238_036 · Media/Ads · prob 35% · resolves 2034-06 · Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf o236_002 · Macro/Economy · prob 42% · resolves 2034-06 · UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step234_043 · Education · prob 35% · resolves 2034-06 · Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book valueIND_004 · AI · prob 43% · resolves 2034-09 · True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontro241_043 · AI · prob 36% · resolves 2035-10 · ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeCMQ_011 · AI · prob 39% · resolves 2036-10 · AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEFORE reaching AGI — not 234_005 · AI · prob 49% · resolves 2036-10 · Demis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x speed, unfolding over 246_053 · AI · prob 43% · resolves 2040-08 · ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon.24 claimsASI_SLOW_2040PLUSprior 60%2040-12248_039 · AI · prob 45% · resolves 2026-06 · Social license, not chips or compute, may be the true bottleneck to AI and will force expansion into241_055 · Space · prob 51% · resolves 2026-06 · Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space241_019 · AI · prob 51% · resolves 2026-06 · AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet239_003 · AI · prob 47% · resolves 2026-09 · We are currently in AI hard takeoff241_031 · AI · prob 48% · resolves 2026-10 · Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement234_019 · AI · prob 39% · resolves 2026-11 · Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeksCMQ_012 · AI · prob 41% · resolves 2027-10 · AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI239_002 · AI · prob 44% · resolves 2027-10 · AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latestCMQ_004 · AI · prob 28% · resolves 2027-11 · AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arriv232_055 · AI · prob 35% · resolves 2028-06 · We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.248_033 · AI · prob 37% · resolves 2028-09 · Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.ROB_001 · AI · prob 29% · resolves 2028-10 · If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorit240_024 · AI · prob 39% · resolves 2029-03 · Advanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionateCMQ_016 · AI · prob 33% · resolves 2029-10 · Post-AGI (2027+), a decade of human-led algorithmic progress will be compressed into ~1 year or lessINF_071 · AI · prob 42% · resolves 2029-10 · Artificial General Intelligence will be achieved by 2029; humans will begin to merge with AI; computCMQ_003 · AI · prob 23% · resolves 2030-09 · By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onAI_008 · AI · prob 29% · resolves 2030-11 · Once 2027 AGI arrives (AI researchers capable of autonomous research), the intelligence explosion beIND_004 · AI · prob 43% · resolves 2034-09 · True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontroAI_006 · AI · prob 38% · resolves 2034-10 · True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require AUT_012 · AI · prob 38% · resolves 2035-10 · True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current 234_005 · AI · prob 49% · resolves 2036-10 · Demis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x speed, unfolding over IND_028 · Biotech/Longevity · prob 15% · resolves 2039-06 · Third bridge toward indefinite human lifespans — achieved via synergy of AI and advanced nanotechnol236_043 · Education · prob 37% · resolves 2040-05 · Universities will become largest incubators on the planet240_026 · Markets/Stocks · prob 42% · resolves 2040-05 · Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company234_044 · AI · prob 39% · resolves 2040-08 · Intelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQ246_053 · AI · prob 43% · resolves 2040-08 · ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon.245_037 · Biotech/Longevity · prob 37% · resolves 2040-09 · Mosquito gene drive halted in Africa was possibly wrong to stop since mosquitoes are part of the foo238_002 · AI · prob 42% · resolves 2040-09 · Rising cost of talent will force Frontier Labs to compete on algorithmic insights245_045 · Biotech/Longevity · prob 39% · resolves 2040-09 · Colossal considers Colossal platform core will stay focused on biodiversity and de-extinction238_037 · AI · prob 42% · resolves 2040-09 · Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover)236_038 · Education · prob 33% · resolves 2040-09 · Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public benefit companies236_044 · Education · prob 45% · resolves 2040-09 · Universities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they survive240_054 · AI · prob 57% · resolves 2040-10 · ASI will reinvent patent and copyright practices242_053 · Auto/Transport · prob 46% · resolves 2040-10 · New car manufacturing demand will collapse by ~50% due to AV utilization246_028 · AI · prob 42% · resolves 2040-10 · Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed.236_037 · Auto/Transport · prob 44% · resolves 2040-10 · Transportation will shift from ownership to subscription/access model244_004 · Auto/Transport · prob 50% · resolves 2040-11 · Race car driving will persist as a sport242_058 · Auto/Transport · prob 51% · resolves 2040-11 · Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleetsROB_027 · AI · prob 40% · resolves 2040-11 · The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary r240_030 · Geopolitics · prob 35% · resolves 2040-11 · Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan234_048 · AI · prob 41% · resolves 2040-11 · Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models238_060 · Macro/Economy · prob 42% · resolves 2040-12 · Universal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come from being human, not ban239_018 · Macro/Economy · prob 44% · resolves 2040-12 · Universal High Income will be implemented234_024 · Labor/Jobs · prob 44% · resolves 2040-12 · Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basis234_008 · Labor/Jobs · prob 45% · resolves 2040-12 · Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight rather than being in t240_049 · Labor/Jobs · prob 49% · resolves 2040-12 · Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobs245_038 · Consumer · prob 41% · resolves 2040-12 · People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist)INF_072 · AI · prob 40% · resolves 2042-09 · There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architSEM_034 · AI/AGI · prob 29% · resolves 2042-12 · True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, thIND_022 · Biotech/Longevity · prob 23% · resolves 2049-09 · AGI arrives before 2029 (Turing test); true Singularity (ASI) occurs in 2040s — total human-machine 50 claimstoday202620272028202920302031

How to read this

  • Tall bands are high-prior futures — the network thinks they're most likely.
  • Dots inside a band are the tracked claims linked to that scenario. Click any dot to drill in.
  • Dashed colored vertical line = the scenario's own resolution date. Scenarios with target_window_end past the right edge resolve "beyond horizon."
  • Claims appearing in multiple bands (Phase 2A's cosine-linked correlate edges often link a prediction to several scenarios) just render in each band they touch — a hint the claim is scenario-robust.