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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.61	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $76 on June 29, 2026?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-23	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	It is more likely that the Moon is made of Parmesan cheese than Gouda cheese [Convince the Machine #17](market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-06-23	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.61	Will the linked Aella market resolve YES?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-23	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.61	Trump Lost parliament Support Before 2028(market prob: 93%)	manifold 2026-06-23	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.61	WIIL I get first of my bronze league this week? 🩶(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-22	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	DiT-Reward: Generative Representations for Text-to-Image Reward Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	Distribution-Aware Diffusion-LLM for Robust Ultra-Long-Term Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.61	Measuring & Mitigating Over-Alignment for LLMs in Multilingual Criminal Law Courts	arxiv 2026-06-22	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	Towards a Bathroom-Centered Human-Building Digital Twin Framework for Indoor Safety Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-22	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.61	HALAS: A Human-Annotated Dataset of Hallucinations of Modern ASR Systems	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	The Model as One Rater Among Several: Measuring Political Positions in Data-Sparse Regions with a Language-Model Panel	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	OrthoMotion:Disentangling Camera and Subject Motion via Geometry Semantics Orthogonal Attention	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Development and Design of FLKit: A Structured Onboarding Toolkit for Federated Learning in Health and Life Sciences	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Attention mechanism for scalable mesh-based neural surrogates of free-surface fluids	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	From Point Estimates to Distributions: GMM Pooling for MIL in Preterm Birth Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.61	From Point Estimates to Distributions: GMM Pooling for MIL in Preterm Birth Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Subject-Level Unknown-Identity Identification from Leap Motion Controller 2 Hand Landmarks	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.61	Evaluating Large Language Models for Hausa and Fongbe Machine Translation: Benchmarks, Failures, and Metric Reliability	arxiv 2026-06-20	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	LaST-HD: Learning Latent Physical Reasoning from Scalable Human Data for Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Autonomous Subsea Cable Search and Tracking with Graph-Optimised Priors and Visual Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.61	Flowing With Purpose: Latent Action Guided Flow Matching Policies For Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	SPiralRoll: A Novel Adjustable-Stiffness Underactuated 3-DoF Joint with Torsion Springs for Rolling Robots	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.61	Affine quantization of the dynamical Reissner--Nordström region	arxiv 2026-06-22	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.61	FDA ANDA204575: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND IBUPROFEN (HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE) — AUROLIFE PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA040330: PERCOCET (ACETAMINOPHEN) — OZANTRI	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Props about Meta's Prediction Markets ("Arena")	manifold 2026-06-23	242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.61	OrbitForge: Text-to-3D Scene Generation via Reconstruction-Anchored Video Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Infinitesimal Causality	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Abstractions of Queries in Ontology-Based Data Access	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	FlowR2A: Learning Reward-to-Action Distribution for Multimodal Driving Planning	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Co-occurring associated retained concepts in Diffusion Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-23	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	PixJail: Self-Evolving Paper-to-Pipeline Reproduction for Text-to-Image Jailbreak Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.61	Ensemble Feature Selection and Harris Hawks Optimization for Explainable Mental Health Risk Prediction in Female Sex Workers	arxiv 2026-06-23	INF_028 AI will render approximately 99% of white-collar jobs replaceable within two years — cognitive-labor costs will mathematically approach the marginal cost of electricity required to generate inference. Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	14%
0.61	The Professor: Multi-Teacher Unsupervised Prompt Distillation for Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	The Measurable Majority	arxiv 2026-06-22	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Real vs. Complex Spectral Bases for Neural Operators: The Role of Green's Function Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	An LLM-based Two-Stage Transformer Framework for Cross-Domain Bearing Fault Diagnosis with Limited Data	arxiv 2026-06-23	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	Deep numerical schemes for systems of Ergodic BSDEs with applications to regime-switching forward utilities	arxiv 2026-06-23	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Posterior Refinement: Fast Language Generation via Any-Order Flow Maps	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Posterior Refinement: Fast Language Generation via Any-Order Flow Maps	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Aspect-Based Sentiment Evolution and its Correlation with Review Rounds in Multi-Round Peer Reviews: A Deep Learning Approach	arxiv 2026-06-23	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	QuechuaTok: Morphological Boundary Accuracy as a Necessary Metric for Tokenizer Evaluation in Agglutinative Low-Resource Languages	arxiv 2026-06-22	245_025 Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	80%
0.61	Decentralized Pose Graph Riemannian Optimization for Object-based Multi-Robot SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-23	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	Enforcing Human-like Kinematics in Dexterous Piano Playing via Adversarial Posture Regularization	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	FDA ANDA213571: ISOTRETINOIN (ISOTRETINOIN) — UPSHER SMITH LABS	fda 2026-06-16	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA NDA007337: PERCODAN (ASPIRIN) — ENDO OPERATIONS	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-23	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.61	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	28%
0.61	Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.61	Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.61	Spread: Japan (-2.5)(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	World Series of Poker! Will Daniel Negreanu break even for the 2026 WSOP on his YouTube vlog?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-23	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.61	SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (SEDG) (CIK 0001419612)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.61	ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (ON) (CIK 0001097864)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.61	A cross-process welding penetration status prediction algorithm based on unsupervised domain adaptation in laser and TIG welding	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Weave of Formal Thought	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	SFL-MTSC: Leveraging Semantic Frame-Level Multi-Task Self-Consistency for Robust Multi-Intent Spoken Language Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Supervised Post-training of Speech Foundation Models for Robust Adaptation in Speech Deepfake Detection	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.61	Heterogeneous and Adept Snapshot Distillation for 3D Semantic Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	LLM-ACES: Closed-Loop Discovery of Dynamical Systems with LLM-Guided Adaptive Search	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_047 Autonomous code agents and AutoResearch systems will close the loop on complex scientific experimentation without human-in-the-loop. Andrej Karpathy	AI	51%
0.61	Same Evidence, Different Answer: Auditing Order Sensitivity in Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Is Variational Monte Carlo Robust? Sharp Moment Thresholds and Heavy-tailed Stochastic Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-24	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	An Analysis of Posterior Collapse, Parameterization and Initialization in Variational Deep Gaussian Processes	arxiv 2026-06-24	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Semantic Allocation in Ordered Bottlenecks: Predictive Residual Inference for Visual Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Bias-Controlled Primal-Dual Natural Actor-Critic: Optimal Rates for Constrained Multi-Objective Average-Reward RL	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Enhancing Clinician Decision-Making via Uncertainty-Aware Multi-Expert Fusion for Stroke Rehabilitation	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Does Translation-Enhanced Speech Encoder Pre-training Affect Speech LLMs?	arxiv 2026-06-24	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Automatic Generation of Highlights for Academic Paper Via Prompt-based Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	GRAFT: Graph-Based Affordance Transfer via Part Correspondence	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Supersymmetry at BLTP: Recent Progress	arxiv 2026-06-23	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.61	Supersymmetry at BLTP: Recent Progress	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.61	FDA ANDA087083: ACETAMINOPHEN AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ACETAMINOPHEN) — SUN PHARM INDS LTD	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA206718: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-26	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Event-Aware Instructed Assistant for Referring Video Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Confidence-Aware Tool Orchestration for Robust Video Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Content-Based Smart E-Mail Dispatcher Using Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Speaking Numbers to LLMs: Multi-Wavelet Number Embeddings for Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	Fast algorithms for learning a Gaussian under halfspace truncation with optimal sample complexity	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Uncertainty quantification via conformal prediction in data assimilation	arxiv 2026-06-25	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Batch-Invariant Spectral Intelligence for Robust and Explainable Insect Authentication	arxiv 2026-06-25	FUT_005 Emergence of 'Living Intelligence' 2026-2031: violent transformative convergence between biological science, silicon-based sensor networks, and algorithmic orchestration — biological cells programmed with same precision as silicon computers. Living cel... Amy Webb	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.61	From Weights to Features: SAE-Guided Activation Regularization for LLM Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	A Causal Foundation Model for Structure and Outcome Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	A General Framework for Learning Algebraic Properties from Cayley Graphs using Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Federated Hash Projected Latent Factor Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Syntactic Belief Update as the Driver of Garden Path Processing Difficulty	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	FDA ANDA040834: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — PHARM ASSOC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Solana all time high by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.61	Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 79%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	What will Karam Gill's 2027 JMO index be	manifold 2026-06-27	234_005 Demis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x speed, unfolding over a decade Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.61	will IMO(math) 2026 problem 1 day 1 is a geometry?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-27	232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.61	FDA ANDA211499: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ABHAI LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA202991: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — RHODES PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Spread: Pistons (-9.5)(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.61	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2025-07-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.61	Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.61	Kash Patel out by April 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-04-29	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.61	Will US average gas price reach $4.300 in May 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-04-27	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	Sub-2 World Marathon Majors 2026-2029	manifold 2026-04-27	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	Sub-2 World Marathon Majors 2026-2029	manifold 2026-04-27	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	When will Indonesia announce the IMO 2026 Team?	manifold 2026-04-27	CMQ_001 By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. Sam Altman	AI	45%
0.61	Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-27	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will "Protecting Cognitive Integrity: Our internal ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-26	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-25	248_025 Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.61	Will Liam mention female ‘tortas’ between April 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM and April 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-04-25	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.61	Where will I live in October 2026?	manifold 2026-04-24	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.61	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-23	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	266374	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	article fb24d74d 3ace 55ce b303 fac8efa3735e.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61	2332202	gdelt 2026-04-30	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.61	view?ud=2026043010000247039	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	elon musk gets an apology from california regulators as a spacex lawsuit is settled	gdelt 2026-04-30	246_008 Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	62%
0.61	202604300928049995	gdelt 2026-04-30	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)	—	18%
0.61	article 786e89ac 593b 52cb bf49 5014eeeab838.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	dow s p 500 slip as fed holds rates eyes turn to mega cap earnings 1091413.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_011 Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	92%
0.61	article ddcab03b 2b7f 5303 8341 e1e8f4863883.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	the era of the pilot is over the era of the agent is here google cloud wants you to unlock the power of your data	gdelt 2026-04-30	231_021 Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	59%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.61	Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.61	Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.61	Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.61	Will Prabowo Subianto be re-elected to a second term in the 2029 Indonesian Presidential Election?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-01	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.61	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?(market prob: 85%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	42%
0.61	Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.61	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	Claude Opus 4.7 METR 50% time horizon	manifold 2026-05-05	248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	45%
0.61	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 142(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-05	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	Limitless Markets US approved as a DCM by the CFTC in 2026?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-05-05	AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley	AI	42%
0.61	Will my trader bonuses exceed… for the May season?	manifold 2026-05-05	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.61	Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-05	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.61	Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) (CIK 0001633978)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.61	Enovix Corp (ENVX) (CIK 0001828318)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.61	DAVITA INC. (DVA) (CIK 0000927066)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.61	FDA ANDA210249: POMALIDOMIDE (POMALIDOMIDE) — EUGIA PHARMA	fda 2026-04-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA078244: ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE PRESERVATIVE FREE (ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE) — ONESOURCE SPECIALTY	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA220269: NITROFURANTOIN (MONOHYDRATE/MACROCRYSTALS) (NITROFURANTOIN) — CREEKWOOD PHARMS	fda 2026-04-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.31.0	github_release 2026-04-08	232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	44%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.10.0	github_release 2025-12-10	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.4	github_release 2022-09-21	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.3	github_release 2022-08-25	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.0.1	github_release 2021-09-30	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.0.0	github_release 2021-07-16	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.7.0	github_release 2026-04-28	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.5.3	github_release 2026-04-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.4.0	github_release 2026-03-27	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v4.57.4	github_release 2026-01-13	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v4.57.3	github_release 2025-11-25	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.21.0-rc0	github_release 2026-02-09	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.20.0	github_release 2025-08-13	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.20.0-rc0	github_release 2025-07-28	CMQ_030 In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	34%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.15.0	github_release 2023-11-14	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.15.0-rc1	github_release 2023-11-03	CMQ_030 In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	34%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.15.0-rc0	github_release 2023-10-25	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.13.1	github_release 2023-09-26	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	pytorch/pytorch v2.8.0	github_release 2025-08-06	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	pytorch/pytorch v2.2.2	github_release 2024-03-27	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.61	pytorch/pytorch v2.1.1	github_release 2023-11-15	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.61	Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	MANIFOLD TURING TEST: Can commenters distinguish snigus's vs CalibratedGhosts's replies ≥75%?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-05	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.61	MHPR: Multidimensional Human Perception and Reasoning Benchmark for Large Vision-Languate Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%