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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5)(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	GPT-5.6 Sol vs Claude Fable 5, which will be broadly available first?	manifold 2026-06-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	3D Spatial Pattern Matching	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.59	MKG-RAG-Bench: Benchmarking Retrieval in Multimodal Knowledge Graph-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	A Multi-Fidelity Convolutional Autoencoder-Transfer Learning Framework for Guided-Wave-Based Damage Diagnosis Using Large Simulated and Limited Experimental Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.59	Transformer-Based Classification of Bacterial Raman Spectra with LOOCV	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	LearniBridge: Learnable Calibration of Feature Caching for Diffusion Models Acceleration	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.59	Zero-shot Tweet-Level Stance Detection Enhanced by External Knowledge and Reflective Chain-of-Thought Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Approximating Feynman integrals using complete monotonicity and Stieltjes properties	arxiv 2026-06-25	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.59	Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	FDA ANDA040893: MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE (MEPERIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — GENUS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Will Logan Webb strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spread: Brazil (-1.5)(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Iran full airspace closure by July 15?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?	manifold 2026-06-28	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? (market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-28	INF_002 By 2027-2028, the US national-security apparatus will effectively appropriate frontier AI data centers — 'The Project' — to secure algorithmic weights and physical infrastructure against state-actor espionage. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	30%
0.59	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 4.5(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 4.5(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	C$^{2}$R: Cross-sample Consistency Regularization Mitigates Feature Splitting and Absorption in Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	SonoCLIP: Mask-Guided Region-Aware Vision-Language Pretraining for Fetal Ultrasound Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-28	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.59	TF-MoE: Time-Frequency Mixture-of-Experts for Efficient Speech Separation	arxiv 2026-06-28	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	The Verbose Context Problem in Medical Records	arxiv 2026-06-28	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.59	The Verbose Context Problem in Medical Records	arxiv 2026-06-28	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Hybrid Active-Online Learning Framework for Label-Efficient Concept Drift Adaptation in Optical Network Failure Detection	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.59	Managing Map Cardinality in Automatic Disease Classification Mapping: Balancing Precision, Recall and Coverage	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Preference-ASR: A Preference-Aware Test Set for Benchmarking ASR in the Era of Speech LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	DistilledGemma: Balanced Efficiency-Accuracy for Person-Place Relation Extraction from Multilingual Historical Articles	arxiv 2026-06-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Self-supervised Geometry Reasoning for LiDAR Simultaneous Localization and Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-29	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Self-supervised Geometry Reasoning for LiDAR Simultaneous Localization and Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Cross-Spectral Stereo Inertial Odometry	arxiv 2026-06-29	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.59	On the Identifiability of Aided Inertial Navigation Under Measurement Delays: A Geometric Approach	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Will Alyssa Thomas win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Milan: Completed Match: Marco Cecchinato vs Raul Brancaccio(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will I run further than @draaglom in July?(market prob: 71%)	manifold 2026-07-01	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.59	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-06-30	247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor	Crypto	54%
0.59	Semantic Leakage and Privacy Preservation in Relay-Assisted Semantic Communications	arxiv 2026-06-30	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.59	A Bayesian Filtering Approach for Learning Lagrangian Dynamics from Noisy Measurements	arxiv 2026-06-30	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.59	Can Tabular In-Context Learners Generalize to Biomolecular Property Prediction?	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	The Label Imitation Game: Turing Test Network for Zero-Shot Pseudo-Label Pruning	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	FDA ANDA090895: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA218307: OSELTAMIVIR PHOSPHATE (OSELTAMIVIR PHOSPHATE) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-06-25	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-01-13	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis	Space	49%
0.59	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey	Labor/Jobs	74%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day) Peter Diamandis	Space	49%
0.59	Canadiens vs. Lightning(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.59	Spread: Lakers (-4.5)(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.59	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-03-06	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.59	LoL: NRG Esports vs Citadel Gaming (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.59	Kash Patel out by April 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-03	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Callais: Which of these states will use a new congressional map for 2026?	manifold 2026-04-29	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will ManiFold Hire a GTM manager until 30 May 2026(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-04-29	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.59	Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Android's age verification system before 2027?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-29	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-04-28	235_020 Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	29%
0.59	Will Poland surpass the UK in GDP per capita by PPP prior to 2035?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-04-26	230_035 GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	32%
0.59	Will Poland surpass the UK in GDP per capita by PPP prior to 2035?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-04-26	AI_001 AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable domains by 2030, extending the sequential maturation roadmap beyond 'independent researcher' (2028) into full-domain superintelligence. Sam Altman	AI	33%
0.59	How will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026?	manifold 2026-04-24	229_021 In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. Brett Adcock	Robotics	14%
0.59	Will Eliezer Yudkowsky actually debate @47fucb4r8c69323?(market prob: 93%)	manifold 2026-04-24	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.59	MYR GROUP INC. (MYRG) (CIK 0000700923)	edgar_8k 2026-04-29	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	dow jones top company headlines at 9 pm et softbank plots ipo for new robotics venture google	gdelt 2026-04-30	246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	79%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.59	Read?newsId=04303366645421368&mediaCodeNo=257	gdelt 2026-04-30	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.59	article fb7caaf3 6d82 5809 8d09 a6175dd641fc.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	view?ud=2026042915480706790	gdelt 2026-04-30	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.59	2580647	gdelt 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	google microsoft prove ai cloud driving ad reven.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.59	article e228d3aa c78b 5496 9870 334f0ea6dec7.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	44%
0.59	article ddcab03b 2b7f 5303 8341 e1e8f4863883.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	article ddcab03b 2b7f 5303 8341 e1e8f4863883.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_025 The entire global installed base of data centers must be ripped out and replaced — legacy DCs unfit for AI factory workloads. Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	49%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	ferrari still widest moat auto 123700972.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	230_010 Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	da davidson initiates micron buy 160024095.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_029 DRAM manufacturers must expand production aggressively — 'NVIDIA will buy all you can make'. Jensen Huang	Semis/Memory	74%
0.59	Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	231_011 The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	55%
0.59	Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	Stars vs. Wild(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FOKUS (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.59	Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	244_004 Race car driving will persist as a sport Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	50%
0.59	Will US Average Gas Prices rise or fall 10 cents in one day in May 2026?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-04-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.59	Where will the talk on Information Markets given by Ashwin (creator of this Market) be held?	manifold 2026-04-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Atlassian Corp (TEAM) (CIK 0001650372)	edgar_8k 2026-04-30	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	humanoid_deployment	50%
0.59	Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NTLA) (CIK 0001652130)	edgar_8k 2026-04-30	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.59	Spread: Rockets (-3.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	LoL: Galions vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LFL Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-19	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics (market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.59	Who will win the Second Prize Drawing?	manifold 2026-05-01	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-01-04	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	20%
0.59	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03?(market prob: 33%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-05	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-04-05	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Netanyahu out by May 31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 8th, 2026?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Spread: Spurs (-9.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.59	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.59	Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	235_022 US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. Peter Diamandis	Energy	53%
0.59	Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.59	Will Alcoa Corporation's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.6 million tonnes?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.59	Free Lottery (Oh-My-God particle)(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-05-04	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Claude Opus 4.7 METR 50% time horizon	manifold 2026-05-05	S_GRID_50GW_DELAYED 50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031	energy_grid_expansion	10%
0.59	Will New York City temperature go up in the next 24h?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will I get a 5 on AP Chem?(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-05-04	233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price	Education	39%
0.59	Vistra Corp. (VST) (CIK 0001692819)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.59	RTX Corp (RTX) (CIK 0000101829)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.59	RTX Corp (RTX) (CIK 0000101829)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.59	FDA ANDA201452: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ARROW INTL	fda 2026-04-27	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	FDA ANDA219271: CYCLOPHOSPHAMIDE (CYCLOPHOSPHAMIDE) — HETERO LABS LIMITED	fda 2026-04-29	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	FDA ANDA079162: TOPIRAMATE (TOPIRAMATE) — INVAGEN PHARMS	fda 2026-04-24	232_036 AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. Ben Horowitz	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.59	FDA ANDA207110: BOSENTAN (BOSENTAN) — WATSON LABS INC	fda 2026-04-14	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.59	FDA ANDA090505: DOXYCYCLINE HYCLATE (DOXYCYCLINE HYCLATE) — IMPAX LABS INC	fda 2026-04-09	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.59	openai/openai-python v2.32.0	github_release 2026-04-15	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.59	huggingface/transformers v4.57.6	github_release 2026-01-16	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.59	huggingface/transformers v4.56.2	github_release 2025-09-17	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.59	meta-llama/llama-models v0.2.0	github_release 2025-04-05	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.59	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.1.2	github_release 2025-06-28	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.59	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.14.0-rc0	github_release 2023-08-17	242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.14.0-rc0	github_release 2023-08-17	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.59	1x-technologies/halodi-robot-models 2.3.4	github_release 2021-04-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.59	Will GameStop acquire eBay?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Triple Spectral Fusion for Sensor-based Human Activity Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-04	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.59	mdok-style at SemEval-2026 Task 10: Finetuning LLMs for Conspiracy Detection	arxiv 2026-05-04	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.59	ViewSAM: Learning View-aware Cross-modal Semantics for Weakly Supervised Cross-view Referring Multi-Object Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-04	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.59	A Closed-Form Adaptive-Landmark Kernel for Certified Point-Cloud and Graph Classification	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	Large-Scale High-Quality 3D Gaussian Head Reconstruction from Multi-View Captures	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Memory-Efficient Continual Learning with CLIP Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Enhance the after-discharge mortality rate prediction via learning from the medical notes	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.59	Enhance the after-discharge mortality rate prediction via learning from the medical notes	arxiv 2026-05-05	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	GRPO-TTA: Test-Time Visual Tuning for Vision-Language Models via GRPO-Driven Reinforcement Learning	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	GRAFT: Auditing Graph Neural Networks via Global Feature Attribution	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Stable Multimodal Graph Unlearning via Feature-Dimension Aware Quantile Selection	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.59	Intrinsic effective sample size for manifold-valued Markov chain Monte Carlo via kernel discrepancy	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	A Universal Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space from Polynomial Alignment and IMQ Distance	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.59	VideoNet: A Large-Scale Dataset for Domain-Specific Action Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	CC-OCR V2: Benchmarking Large Multimodal Models for Literacy in Real-world Document Processing	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	From prompting to evidence-based translation: A RAG+prompt system for Japanese-Chinese translation and its pedagogical potential	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Benchmarking Retrieval Strategies for Biomedical Retrieval-Augmented Generation: A Controlled Empirical Study	arxiv 2026-05-04	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.59	Tibetan-TTS:Low-Resource Tibetan Speech Synthesis with Large Model Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-04	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.59	ATLAS: Article Tracking, Linking, and Analysis of Swedish Encyclopedias	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Robust Adaptive Predictive Control for Hook-Based Aerial Transportation Between Moving Platforms	arxiv 2026-05-04	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.59	Entangling gates for the SU(N) anyons	arxiv 2026-05-05	247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor	Crypto	54%
0.59	FDA ANDA211537: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND SAXAGLIPTIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — TORRENT	fda 2026-04-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA213267: THALIDOMIDE (THALIDOMIDE) — NATCO	fda 2026-04-24	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%