Validations Queue

95,758 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 285 of 444, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

Pending (total)

95,758

Reviewed

Filtered

88,682

page 285 / 444

Showing on page

200

Filters

URL params control source + min-similarity threshold

Source

All (95758)arxiv (44382)codex_research_pack (134)edgar_8k (3366)fda (4550)gdelt (1218)github_release (3112)manifold (9838)polymarket (29158)

Page size

50 100 200 500

Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

Threshold:Source:Action:

Source0 selected · 0 visible

Bulk action

Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.60	Reconstruction of Personally Identifiable Information from Supervised Finetuned Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Instruction Lens Score: Your Instruction Contributes a Powerful Object Hallucination Detector for Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	A Unified Graph Language Model for Multi-Domain Multi-Task Graph Alignment Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	STRUM: A Spectral Transcription and Rhythm Understanding Model for End-to-End Generation of Playable Rhythm-Game Charts	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Towards Order Fairness: Mitigating LLMs Order Sensitivity through Dual Group Advantage Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-12	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	Bin Latent Transformer (BiLT): A shift-invariant autoencoder for calibration-free spectral unmixing of turbid media	arxiv 2026-05-12	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Fed-BAC: Federated Bandit-Guided Additive Clustering in Hierarchical Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.12.0	github_release 2026-05-13	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.60	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.60	If we automate every FIFA World Cup market and resolution, how many traders will @ManifoldSports have by the end?	manifold 2026-05-13	234_032 Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	29%
0.60	If we automate every FIFA World Cup market and resolution, how many traders will @ManifoldSports have by the end?	manifold 2026-05-13	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.60	AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC. (AIG) (CIK 0000005272)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.60	Fast and effective algorithms for fair clustering at scale	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_001 Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI/Compute	55%
0.60	Min Generalized Sliced Gromov Wasserstein: A Scalable Path to Gromov Wasserstein	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.60	MILM: Large Language Models for Multimodal Irregular Time Series with Informative Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-13	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	MedCore: Boundary-Preserving Medical Core Pruning for MedSAM	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.60	Multimodal Graph-based Classification of Esophageal Motility Disorders	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Limits of Personalizing Differential Privacy Budgets	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.60	Path-independent Flow Matching for Multi-parameter Generative Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.60	Continual Learning with Multilingual Foundation Model	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Query-Conditioned Test-Time Self-Training for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.60	KamonBench: A Grammar-Based Dataset for Evaluating Compositional Factor Recovery in Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Chem-GMNet: A Sphere-Native Geometric Transformer for Molecular Property Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Chem-GMNet: A Sphere-Native Geometric Transformer for Molecular Property Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	MLGIB: Multi-Label Graph Information Bottleneck for Expressive and Robust Message Passing	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Bayesian Nonparametric Mixed-Effect ODEs with Gaussian Processes	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.60	A General Bézier Tree Encoding Counterfactual Framework for Retinal-Vessel-Mediated Disease Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Decision Tree Learning on Product Spaces	arxiv 2026-05-13	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	CoRe-Gen: Robust Spectrum-to-Structure Generation under Imperfect Fingerprint Conditions	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	U-HNO: A U-shaped Hybrid Neural Operator with Sparse-Point Adaptive Routing for Non-stationary PDE Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	Coreset-Induced Conditional Velocity Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	IV-ICL: Bounding Causal Effects with Instrumental Variables via In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Reliable and Explainable Medical Image Classification	arxiv 2026-05-13	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	FDA ANDA201446: FALLBACK SOLO (LEVONORGESTREL) — LUPIN	fda 2026-05-01	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.60	Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-16?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	IPG PHOTONICS CORP (IPGP) (CIK 0001111928)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.60	Causal Foundation Models with Continuous Treatments	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Distance-Matrix Wasserstein Statistics for Scalable Gromov--Wasserstein Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	K-Models: a Flexible and Interpretable Method for Ordinal Clustering with Application to Antigen-Antibody Interaction Profiles	arxiv 2026-05-14	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.60	Beyond What to Select: A Plug-and-play Oscillatory Data-Volume Scheduling for Efficient Model Training	arxiv 2026-05-14	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	Non-linear Interventions on Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	Woodelf++: A Fast and Unified Partial Dependence Plot Algorithm for Decision Tree Ensembles	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	ICED: Concept-level Machine Unlearning via Interpretable Concept Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.60	TILT: Target-induced loss tilting under covariate shift	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	To discretize continually: Mean shift interacting particle systems for Bayesian inference	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-03-01	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.60	Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-01-22	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	will there be a major linux virus in 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.60	FDA BLA761195: VYVGART (EFGARTIGIMOD ALFA) — ARGENX BV	fda 2026-05-08	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.60	facebookresearch/hydra v1.1.0	github_release 2021-06-10	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	14%
0.60	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.0rc3	github_release 2020-08-17	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.60	Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.60	Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will Hantavirus become a pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Hantavirus become a pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-05-17	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.60	Spread: Thunder (-6.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.60	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.60	before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-18	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.60	Will Russian ISPs require additional payments from end-users for cross-border traffic by the end of 2026(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-18	COD_AI_001 Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026 Codex Research Pack	Technology	51%
0.60	Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.60	Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Varvara Lepchenko(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	DARE-EEG: A Foundation Model for Mining Dual-Aligned Representation of EEG	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	SIREM: Speech-Informed MRI Reconstruction with Learned Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-18	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.60	DCFold: Efficient Protein Structure Generation with Single Forward Pass	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.60	Is Complex Training Necessary for Long-Tailed OOD Detection? A Re-think from Feature Geometry	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Learning Variable-Length Tokenization for Generative Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Learning Variable-Length Tokenization for Generative Recommendation	arxiv 2026-05-18	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	Divergence-Suppressing Couplings for Rectified Flow	arxiv 2026-05-18	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	FDA BLA761070: FASENRA (BENRALIZUMAB) — ASTRAZENECA AB	fda 2026-05-13	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.60	Will David Njoku play for Miami Dolphins in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.60	Will SINNERS win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa end in a draw?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2025-09-22	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Will any ARML 2026 problem in the individual round have exactly 67 or 41 solves, if one has 121 solves resolves 67%.(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-25	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.60	On May 31st 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?	manifold 2026-05-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	9984.T (SoftBank Group Corp.) over 10,000 by Thursday 11 June, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-25	236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	53%
0.60	Will GTA VI sell more than 50 million copies by the end of 2027?(market prob: 91%)	manifold 2026-05-24	242_058 Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	51%
0.60	Roblox Corp (RBLX) (CIK 0001315098)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	Tiny but Trusted: Efficient Vision-Language Reasoning for Time-Series Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	Alignment-Guided Score Matching for Text-to-Image Alignment in Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Give it Space! Explicit Disentangling of Positional and Semantic Representations in Encoders	arxiv 2026-05-28	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	DLM-SWAI: Steering Diffusion Language Models Before They Unmask	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	ParaTool: Shifting Tool Representations from Context to Parameters	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_057 Democratization of sophisticated AI tools means any 'kid in a basement' can now build world-changing applications via API access to frontier models. Mark Cuban	AI	56%
0.60	ParaTool: Shifting Tool Representations from Context to Parameters	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Statistical Embeddings for Similarity, Retrieval, and Interpretable Alignment of Numeric Tabular Datasets	arxiv 2026-05-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Improving Adversarial Robustness of Attribution via Implicit Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-28	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.60	Open World Autoencoding Drift Detection with Novel Class Recognition in Tabular Non-stationary Data Streams	arxiv 2026-05-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.60	MoSSP: A Momentum-Based Single-Loop Stochastic Penalty Method for Nonconvex Constrained DC-Regularized Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Robust Frequency-Calibrated Virtual EEG Channel Generation from Four Frontal Electrodes for Wearable EEG Augmentation	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.60	LoMo: Local Modality Substitution for Deeper Vision-Language Fusion	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	GRUFF: LLM Pronoun Fidelity, Reasoning, and Biases in German	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	How to Relieve Distribution Shifts in Semantic Segmentation for Off-Road Environments	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Mellin Moments of the Unpolarized Gluon PDF in the Proton from Nonlocal Operators in Lattice QCD	arxiv 2026-05-28	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.60	FDA ANDA204994: LACOSAMIDE (LACOSAMIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-05-22	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA BLA761449: TYENNE (TOCILIZUMAB-AAZG) — FRESENIUS KABI USA	fda 2026-05-20	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA207812: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA NDA219878: BAXFENDY (BAXDROSTAT) — ASTRAZENECA AB	fda 2026-05-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA NDA219943: KOSELUGO (SELUMETINIB) — ASTRAZENECA	fda 2026-05-26	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.60	facebookresearch/map-anything v1.1.2	github_release 2026-05-30	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	US Gas Price $4.100 or below in June 2026?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-31	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.60	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.60	Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.60	Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.60	FDA ANDA220437: TIVOZANIB (TIVOZANIB) — SANDOZ INC	fda 2026-05-14	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	FDA NDA220711: BEQALZI (SONROTOCLAX) — BEONE MEDICINES USA	fda 2026-05-13	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.60	Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Brazil 2026 Election: Will the US announce a new tariff targeting Brazilian products before Brazil’s 2026 election?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-01	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.60	Modeling Depth Ambiguity: A Mixture-Density Representation for Flying-Point-Free Depth Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Towards Resolving Optimization Conflicts Between Image- and Text-Based Person Re-Identification	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Ranking vs. Assignment: The Metric Mismatch in Multi-View Object Association	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	The Image Reconstruction Game: Drawing Common Ground Through Iterative Multimodal Dialogue	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Physically-Constrained Mamba-SDE for Remaining Useful Life Prediction under Irregular Observations	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	S-SPPO: Semantic-Calibrated Self-Play Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.60	TN-SHAP-G: Graph-Structured Tensor Network Surrogates for Shapley Values and Interactions	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Transferring Information Across Interventions in Causal Bayesian Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-31	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.60	A Biconvex Formulation for Stable Transport of Mixture Models with a Unique Solution	arxiv 2026-06-01	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Hallucination-Aware Diffusion Sampling for Inverse Problems via Robust Prior Updates	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Network Learning with Semi-relaxed Gromov-Wasserstein	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.60	Graph Edit Distance Formulation for the Vehicle Routing Problem: Theory and Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-01	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Target localization, identification and sensing using latent symmetries	arxiv 2026-05-31	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	GPTQ-intrinsic LoRA: A Near-optimal Algorithm for Low-precision Quantization with Low-rank Adaptation	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Towards Multidisciplinary Summarization of Hospital Stays: Efficient Sentence-Level Clinical Provenance Categorization	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	FDA ANDA081235: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — MYLAN	fda 2026-05-27	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.2	github_release 2022-06-15	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.60	facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.1.7	github_release 2021-01-29	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	Will Nathan (NotARoomba) say 67 before 8th Jun(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-03	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.60	C3.ai, Inc. (AI) (CIK 0001577526)	edgar_8k 2026-06-03	232_060 We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	44%
0.60	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-01-13	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.60	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-01-13	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-05-27	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.60	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.60	FDA BLA761069: IMFINZI (DURVALUMAB) — ASTRAZENECA UK LTD	fda 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.60	openai/openai-python v2.41.0	github_release 2026-06-03	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.60	Will Jonah Heim win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.60	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 89%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 6?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-30	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.60	Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-05	234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-05	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.60	Adapting Diffusion Language Models for Lossless Pixel-Level Image Transmission	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	OrderGrad: Optimizing Beyond the Mean with Order-Statistic Policy Gradient Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-04	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.60	To Be Multimodal or Not to Be: Query-Adaptive Audio-Visual Person Retrieval via Active Modality Detection	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.60	Mechanistic Insights into Functional Sparsity in Multimodal LLMs via CoRe Heads	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.60	Learning Geometric Representations from Videos for Spatial Intelligent Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Narrative Knowledge Weaver: Narrative-Centric Retrieval-Augmented Reasoning for Long-Form Text Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.60	Answer Presence Drives RAG Rewriting Gains	arxiv 2026-06-04	245_025 Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	80%
0.60	GuardNet: Ensemble Strategies of Shallow Neural Networks for Robust Prompt Injection and Jailbreak Detection	arxiv 2026-06-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Learning to model pediatric asthma exacerbation from multiple risk factors: a case study in coastal Virginia	arxiv 2026-06-04	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Learning solution operators of PDEs with sparse approximation methods	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	DP-MacAdam: Differentially Private Mechanism with Adaptive Clipping and Adaptive Momentum	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.60	Automatic Labelling of Speech Translation Errors	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	TARPO: Token-Wise Latent-Explicit Reasoning via Action-Routing Policy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.60	ProSPy: A Profiling-Driven SQL-Python Agentic Framework for Enterprise Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-06-04	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	humanoid_deployment	50%
0.60	SemBlock: Semantic Boundary Dynamic Blocks for Diffusion LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Breaking Time: A Fully Gaussian Framework for Distributed and Continuous-Time SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	The Double Well Done Doubly-Well	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	FDA ANDA218407: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — SUN PHARM INDS INC	fda 2026-06-03	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.60	facebookresearch/exca 0.5.0	github_release 2025-10-22	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.60	Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #4 Group D(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	FDA ANDA219288: CYCLOSPORINE (CYCLOSPORINE) — JIANGSU ANBISON	fda 2026-06-01	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.60	Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-07	237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis	AI	59%
0.60	can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-07	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.60	Will Brent crude oil settle at or above $100/barrel on any trading day before July 1, 2026?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.6	github_release 2021-11-15	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.60	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.2	github_release 2020-07-08	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.60	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.1.2	github_release 2020-05-04	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.60	DIFFRACT: Neuralized Utility Maximization for Wireless Networks by Differentiable Programming	arxiv 2026-06-05	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.60	SpectCount: Spectrotemporal Counting via Synthetic Signals Improves Large Audio Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Generative Modeling of Discrete Latent Structures via Dynamic Policy Gradients	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	Automatic, Debiased, and Invariant Counterfactual Generation under General Interventions	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Trio: Learning Time-Series Forecasting with Temporal-Spatial-Sample Attention and Structural Causal Priors	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	Structure-Preserving Correction Learning for Sparse Bayesian Inference in Brain Source Imaging	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	CF-JEPA: Mask-free forward prediction with asymmetric encoder utilization for time-series representation learning	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	SEAM: Shortcut-Aware Real-Time Detection of Scripted vs. Spontaneous Speech for Interview Guardrails	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Phun-Bench: Evaluating LLMs on Phonological Understanding in Chinese	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Learning Perspectivist Social Meaning via Demographic-Conditioned Fusion Embeddings	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.60	Meaning in Order, Order in Meaning: Semantic R-precision for Keyphrase Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	From (Hidden) Symmetries to Stealth Solutions	arxiv 2026-06-05	232_058 Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.60	Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.60	Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%