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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.62 | before 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona?(market prob: 9%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Polymarket feature a market about Teamfight Tactics before 2028?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% | |
| 0.62 | Will Unicode remove an existing emoji before the end of 2030?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will there be a physical protest at Discord headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | 236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will this market get between 75-150 unique traders?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 236_010 5% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next day Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | COD_SPC_001 Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing Codex Research Pack | Space | 44% | |
| 0.62 | can you just balenciaga it? Before 2028(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | Will I meet a trader on this market at Manifest 2026?(market prob: 88%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-29 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-27 | SEM_038 Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026. Elon Musk | AI/AGI | 19% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Build a Bear outperform the SP500 for the year of 2027?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-04-23 | ROB_008 Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... Morgan Stanley | Robotics | 37% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-30 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.62 | Bitcoin $67K in May?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.62 | Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | |
| 0.62 | Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.62 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 142(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle?(market prob: 70%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | |
| 0.62 | US Gas Price hits $4(NO) or $5(YES) Next?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 142(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin network hashrate go up in 24h?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-11 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-11 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Xi Jingping visit US before 2027?(market prob: 86%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.62 | 2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Final (TBD beats TBD)(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-15 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) close above $85,000 on June 1, 2026?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | Will BTC-USD close below $90,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.62 | Will there be a physical protest at Discord headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-05-24 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.62 | Will an Atlantic hurricane (Category 1+) form before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Blue Moon be launched on Falcon Heavy ?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 232_047 Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. Elon Musk | Space | 30% | |
| 0.62 | Best gif competition : Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 416(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.62 | Will the S&P500 be down greater than 1% in a week?(market prob: 42%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will the May Jobs report be revised upwards in June?(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 234_036 Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 29% | |
| 0.62 | Will there be more than 150 goals scored in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Fed (Kevin Warsh) cut interest rates by July 2026?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Jesus return on November 25 2026(market prob: 1%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.62 | Will June 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-13 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | ||
| 0.62 | Will TheTechQuant reach 200 followers by Jun 1 2026?(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 245_004 EY estimates the extinct-species educational/consumer market at $1.7 trillion annually EY (Ernst & Young) | Consumer | 43% | ||
| 0.62 | Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 51% | ||
| 0.62 | Bitcoin $80K in May?(market prob: 89%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-02 | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-03 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 56% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.62 | I go through the scaling book this week?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | |
| 0.62 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 902(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Flygon get a mega evolution by the end of 2028?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-12 | 242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.62 | BTC closes above $85k at end of month?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.62 | Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 9¾(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.62 | Will USD strengthen against GBP in the next 24h?(market prob: 65%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-14 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_015 Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_015 Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | Will AI psychosis make it into the DSM6?(market prob: 22%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.62 | Will Chainlink go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 247_046 AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 Peter Diamandis | AI | 55% | |
| 0.62 | Will there be a trend spike for The Third Man Theme before 2038?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | |
| 0.62 | Will there be a trend spike for The Third Man Theme before 2038?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | |
| 0.62 | Will Litecoin go up in the next 24 hours?(market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-28 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?(market prob: 32%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-26 | COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 33% | ||
| 0.62 | Will 1mon (Max) wear a dress in 2026(market prob: 71%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk | AI | 44% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis | Space | 56% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Apple TV+ launch in Romania tommorow at WWDC 2026?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 54% | |
| 0.62 | Will AMM 2026 release scores next week?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-06 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-08 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.62 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Bernie Sanders officially run for president in 2028?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% |