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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	FDA ANDA207137: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — AMNEAL PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.61	Will CrowdStrike (CRWD) close higher in its first week after the 4:1 split?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-06-25	238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	[Kalshi] 21st Century ROAD to Housing law becomes law this year?(market prob: 92%)	manifold 2026-06-25	239_018 Universal High Income will be implemented Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	44%
0.61	Nano Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE) (CIK 0001923891)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	INF_045 Nuclear sector will draw approximately $1.5 trillion in cumulative capital investment through 2050, increasing nuclear's share of global energy supply from ~10% currently to ~17%. Morgan Stanley	Energy	51%
0.61	Nano Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE) (CIK 0001923891)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	INF_045 Nuclear sector will draw approximately $1.5 trillion in cumulative capital investment through 2050, increasing nuclear's share of global energy supply from ~10% currently to ~17%. Morgan Stanley	Energy	51%
0.61	Beam Global (BEEM) (CIK 0001398805)	edgar_8k 2026-06-24	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.61	MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC (MU) (CIK 0000723125)	edgar_8k 2026-06-24	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.61	AutoRelAnnotator: Calibrated Model Cascades for Cost-Efficient Relevance Evaluation in Sponsored Search	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Color Matters: Trigger Color Affects Success in Federated Backdoor Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-24	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Do Encoders Suffice? A Systematic Comparison of Encoder and Decoder Safety Judges for LLM Adversarial Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.61	HG-Bench: A Benchmark for Multi-Page Handwritten Answer-Region Grounding in Automated Homework Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	C3-Bench: A Context-Aware Change Captioning Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-24	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	CrossAccent-TTS: Cross-Lingual Accent-Intensity Controllable Text-to-Speech via Disentangled Speaker and Accent Representations	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Communicability-Inspired Positional Encoding (CIPE)	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.61	Taxonomy-aware deep learning for hierarchical marine species classification in underwater imagery	arxiv 2026-06-24	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	A 3D-Printable Dataset for Fair Testing and Comparisons of Tactile Sensors	arxiv 2026-06-24	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	RAS: Measuring LLM Safety Through Refusal Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	Leaking Circuit Secrets: Gradient Leakage Attacks on Graph Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	Blasto-Net: An Explainable Multi-Task Learning for Blastocyst Segmentation, Grading, and Implantation Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Geometry-Anchored Transport Framework for Exemplar-Free Class-Incremental Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	REViT: Roto-reflection Equivariant Convolutional Vision Transformer	arxiv 2026-06-24	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	What's in an Earth Embedding? An Explainability Analysis of Location Encoders	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	A Single Stepsize Suffices for Unprojected Linear TD(0): Simultaneous Robust and Fast Rates via Polyak--Ruppert Averaging	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	CKM-Driven Communication-Aware UAV Intelligent Trajectory Optimization for Urban Inspection	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	LLM Performance on a Real, Double-Marked GCSE Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.61	Don't Go Breaking My LLM: The Impact of Pruning Attention Layers on Explanation Faithfulness and Confidence Calibration	arxiv 2026-06-23	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	Reliable Conformal Prediction for Ordinal Classification Using the Ranked Probability Score	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Does Translation-Enhanced Speech Encoder Pre-training Affect Speech LLMs?	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Automatic Generation of Highlights for Academic Paper Via Prompt-based Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Large-Scale Tunnel Air--Ground Collaboration With FLISP: Fast LiDAR-IMU Synchronized Path Planne	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.61	WaveForward: An Omnidirectional Passive Wheeled Quadruped Robot with Casters	arxiv 2026-06-24	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	An Integrated Hardware-Software Design for Low-Data Spatial Defect Detection in Robotic Visual Inspection with Hybrid Optoelectronic Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-24	242_011 New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.61	An Integrated Hardware-Software Design for Low-Data Spatial Defect Detection in Robotic Visual Inspection with Hybrid Optoelectronic Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.61	SurveilNav: Collaborative Object Goal Navigation with Robot and Surveillance System	arxiv 2026-06-23	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	FDA ANDA091440: LEVONORGESTREL AND ETHINYL ESTRADIOL (ETHINYL ESTRADIOL) — LUPIN LTD	fda 2026-06-16	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will there be found a language whose phonology is provably outside IOTSL level of subregular complexity, by EOY 2030?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-06-26	241_055 Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space Peter Diamandis	Space	51%
0.61	Application of LLMs to Threat Assessment of Foreign Peacekeeping Missions	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	76%
0.61	Beyond Global Divergences: A Local-Mass Perspective on Bayesian Inference	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.61	Beyond Global Divergences: A Local-Mass Perspective on Bayesian Inference	arxiv 2026-06-25	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Learning to Recover Task Experts from a Multi-Task Merged Model	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.61	scBench-Long: Verifiable Benchmarking of Long-Horizon Single-Cell Biology	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	PMDformer: Patch-Mean Decoupling Information Transformer for Long-term Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	Blackwell Approachability and Gradient Equilibrium are Equivalent	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Tractography-Driven Synthetic Data Generation for Fiber Bundle Segmentation in Tracer Histology	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	When Does Quality-Aware Multimodal Fusion Matter? A Leakage-Safe Diagnostic for Decision-Level Dependence	arxiv 2026-06-25	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	A Causal Foundation Model for Structure and Outcome Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_004 The Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF) under the Linux Foundation — backed by Dorsey plus major cloud providers and AI labs — will establish vendor-neutral open-governance protocols for agent orchestration, ensuring critical 2030s infrastructure is not monop... Jack Dorsey	AI	58%
0.61	How Surprising Is Historical Italian to Language Models? Tokenization Tax, Comprehension Tax, and a Simple Mitigation	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Extracting Problem and Method Sentence from Scientific Papers: A Context-enhanced Transformer Using Formulaic Expression Desensitization	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Hardware Design for Table Tennis Robot Capable of Beating Professional Players	arxiv 2026-06-25	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.61	Morphology-Specific Closed-Loop Control of Logarithmic-Spiral Continuum Arms via Online Jacobian Error Compensation	arxiv 2026-06-24	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Morphology-Specific Closed-Loop Control of Logarithmic-Spiral Continuum Arms via Online Jacobian Error Compensation	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Conservation law of super-Lorentz charges	arxiv 2026-06-25	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.61	FDA ANDA207574: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — SANALUZ	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.61	Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.61	Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.61	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2025-07-11	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 79%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.61	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2025-07-11	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.61	Will Poland surpass the UK in GDP per capita by PPP prior to 2035?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-04-26	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.61	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.61	Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	266374	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	30%
0.61	anduril palantir spacex cambiando forma estados unidos 20260430002042 ntrc.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	58%
0.61	anduril palantir spacex cambiando forma estados unidos 20260430002042 ntrc.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61	bitcoin bestaende elon musks vater enthuellt ueberraschende bitcoin bestaende der familie 00 15640043	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_008 Rapid agentic automation of white-collar work could precipitate an employment crisis requiring entirely new tax structures to manage displacement. Dario Amodei	Labor/Jobs	41%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	big us tech stocks swing 214147047.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.61	anduril palantir spacex cambiando forma estados unidos 20260430002042 ntrc.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	ROB_023 SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining the infrastructural backbone required to deploy advanced AI systems into orbit; SpaceX aims to place AI directly on the Moon by 2026. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	58%
0.61	anduril palantir spacex cambiando forma estados unidos 20260430002042 ntrc.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	1256561.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.61	why investors didnt give meta a pass on increased spending despite a great quarter.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.61	Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.61	Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will Mr. Beast run a red button vs. blue button video by the end of the year?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-04-30	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	When will the Official Gazette detailing the April 30 income increase breakdown be published?	manifold 2026-05-01	234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Spread: Celtics (-6.5)(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	How active will the 2026 Pacific hurricane season be?	manifold 2026-05-02	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.61	will i qualify for arml tiebreaker 2026?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-04-27	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.61	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5?(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 902(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-03	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.61	Will Jesus Christ Return before the 2028 election?	manifold 2026-05-05	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.61	Will Jesus Christ Return before the 2028 election?	manifold 2026-05-05	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	FDA ANDA218740: CETRORELIX ACETATE (CETRORELIX ACETATE) — HUMANWELL	fda 2026-04-29	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	FDA ANDA076780: ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE PRESERVATIVE FREE (ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA FARMACEUTICA	fda 2026-04-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA NDA018900: METRO I.V. IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (METRONIDAZOLE) — B BRAUN	fda 2026-04-23	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.18.0	github_release 2026-02-09	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.61	openai/openai-python v2.14.0	github_release 2025-12-19	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.2.4	github_release 2022-09-21	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.1.2	github_release 2022-01-28	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	google-deepmind/alphafold v2.0.0	github_release 2021-07-16	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.6.1	github_release 2026-04-23	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.5.4	github_release 2026-04-13	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.5.2	github_release 2026-04-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v5.5.1	github_release 2026-04-09	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v4.57.5	github_release 2026-01-13	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61	huggingface/transformers v4.56.1-Vault-Gemma-preview	github_release 2025-09-12	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.19.0-rc0	github_release 2025-02-24	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.61	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.13.1	github_release 2023-09-26	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.61	pytorch/pytorch v2.7.0	github_release 2025-04-23	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	pytorch/pytorch v2.4.0	github_release 2024-07-24	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.61	pytorch/pytorch v2.4.0	github_release 2024-07-24	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	pytorch/pytorch v2.2.0	github_release 2024-01-30	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	pytorch/pytorch v2.0.0	github_release 2023-03-15	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	Will "[Linkpost] Interpreting Language Model Parameters" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-06	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.61	MANIFOLD TURING TEST: Can commenters distinguish snigus's vs CalibratedGhosts's replies ≥75%?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Will I make positive profit in this season on my alt account this season??(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-04	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Amortized Variational Inference for Joint Posterior and Predictive Distributions in Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	HeadQ: Model-Visible Distortion and Score-Space Correction for KV-Cache Quantization	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.61	CuraView: A Multi-Agent Framework for Medical Hallucination Detection with GraphRAG-Enhanced Knowledge Verification	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.61	Deepfake Audio Detection Using Self-supervised Fusion Representations	arxiv 2026-05-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	SAIL: Structure-Aware Interpretable Learning for Anatomy-Aligned Post-hoc Explanations in OCT	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	An explainable hypothesis-driven approach to Drug-Induced Liver Injury with HADES	arxiv 2026-05-04	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.61	From Data Lifting to Continuous Risk Estimation: A Process-Aware Pipeline for Predictive Monitoring of Clinical Pathways	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.61	TsallisPGD: Adaptive Gradient Weighting for Adversarial Attacks on Semantic Segmentation	arxiv 2026-05-05	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	RFPrompt: Prompt-Based Expert Adaptation of the Large Wireless Model for Modulation Classification	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Pairwise matrices for sparse autoencoders: single-feature inspection mislabels causal axes	arxiv 2026-05-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Selective Prediction from Agreement: A Lipschitz-Consistent Version Space Approach	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Isotropic Fourier Neural Operators	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Natural Language Processing: A Comprehensive Practical Guide from Tokenisation to RLHF	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Retrieving Floods without Floodlights: Topic Models as Binary Classifiers for Extreme Climate Events in German News	arxiv 2026-05-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Benchmarking Logistic Regression, SVM, Naive Bayes, and IndoBERT Fine-Tuning for Sentiment Analysis on Indonesian Product Reviews	arxiv 2026-05-05	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	A Systematic Benchmark of Machine Transliteration Models for the Tajik-Farsi Language Pair: A Comparative Study from Rule-Based to Transformer Architectures	arxiv 2026-05-04	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Natural Gradient Bayesian Filtering: Geometry-Aware Filter for Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	EdgeLPR: On the Deep Neural Network trade-off between Precision and Performance in LiDAR Place Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	From Finite-Node Conifold Geometry to BPS Structures III: Mediated Triangle Transport and Graded Interaction Data	arxiv 2026-05-04	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	FDA ANDA211491: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-05-21	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	facebookresearch/neuroai v0.1.0	github_release 2026-04-17	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.61	Bitcoin $83k in May?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-05-07	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	34%
0.61	Will I attend Manifest 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-05-07	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.61	Automatically Finding and Validating Unexpected Side-Effects of Interventions on Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	FMI_SU_Yotkova_Kastreva at SemEval-2026 Task 13: Lightweight Detection of LLM-Generated Code via Stylometric Signals	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_006 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes the dominant programming interface; programmers transition from syntax writers to high-level intent specifiers. Andrej Karpathy	AI	92%
0.61	facebookresearch/balance 0.16.0	github_release 2026-02-09	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.61	facebookresearch/balance 0.10.0	github_release 2025-01-06	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	facebookresearch/balance 0.8.0	github_release 2023-04-26	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.32	github_release 2025-08-13	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.23	github_release 2023-12-06	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	BAMI: Training-Free Bias Mitigation in GUI Grounding	arxiv 2026-05-07	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	Concept-Based Abductive and Contrastive Explanations for Behaviors of Vision Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	Improved techniques for fine-tuning flow models via adjoint matching: a deterministic control pipeline	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	P-Guide: Parameter-Efficient Prior Steering for Single-Pass CFG Inference	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	VISD: Enhancing Video Reasoning via Structured Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	TFM-Retouche: A Lightweight Input-Space Adapter for Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	In Data or Invisible: Toward a Better Digital Representation of Low-Resource Languages with Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.61	Hybrid Quantum-Classical GANs for the Generation of Adversarial Network Flows	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.61	SoftSAE: Dynamic Top-K Selection for Adaptive Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	How Many Iterations to Jailbreak? Dynamic Budget Allocation for Multi-Turn LLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Weight-Decay Turns Transformer Loss Landscapes Villani: Functional-Analytic Foundations for Optimization and Generalization	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_071 Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	CLAD: A Clustered Label-Agnostic Federated Learning Framework for Joint Anomaly Detection and Attack Classification	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.61	SNAPO: Smooth Neural Adjoint Policy Optimization for Optimal Control via Differentiable Simulation	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.61	Diffusion-Based Posterior Sampling: A Feynman-Kac Analysis of Bias and Stability	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	MARBLE: Multi-Aspect Reward Balance for Diffusion RL	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	MINER: Mining Multimodal Internal Representation for Efficient Retrieval	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	The Interplay of Data Structure and Imbalance in the Learning Dynamics of Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	End-to-End Identifiable and Consistent Recurrent Switching Dynamical Systems	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Teaching LLMs Program Semantics via Symbolic Execution Traces	arxiv 2026-05-07	237_019 Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Requests of a Feather Must Flock Together: Batch Size vs. Prefix Homogeneity in LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Training Transformers for KV Cache Compressibility	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Near-Policy: Accelerating On-Policy Distillation via Asynchronous Generation and Selective Packing	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Chainwash: Multi-Step Rewriting Attacks on Diffusion Language Model Watermarks	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	ConsisVLA-4D: Advancing Spatiotemporal Consistency in Efficient 3D-Perception and 4D-Reasoning for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-05-06	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	Optimal Uncertainty-Aware Calibration for the AX=YB Problem	arxiv 2026-05-06	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	When Does Gene Regulatory Network Inference Break? A Controlled Diagnostic Study of Causal and Correlational Methods on Single-Cell Data	arxiv 2026-05-06	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Fundamental or Composite? The Higgs Enigma	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.61	Will a Hantavirus Vaccine be created in 2026? [Polymarket](market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-08	246_027 AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future). Sam Altman	AI	51%
0.61	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2025-10-24	239_018 Universal High Income will be implemented Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	44%
0.61	US Gas Price average for 11 May 2026?	manifold 2026-05-10	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	Will this market get between 55-75 unique traders?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-10	234_032 Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	29%
0.61	Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Venus by EOY 2051?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-05-09	246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	41%
0.61	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%