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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-16 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by May 24?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by May 21?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-03-01 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.55 | Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | Valorant: NAVI Junior vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-19 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | Israel closes its airspace by June 15?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Israel closes its airspace by June 30?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Foggia: Sapfo Sakellaridi vs Sofia Costoulas(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | 25% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Dallas Wings (-12.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.55 | U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-01-30 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.55 | Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | Tyler: Masamichi Imamura vs Colton Smith(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 248_015 Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 50% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by June 22?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by July 15?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | ITF Cuiaba: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Nick Hardt(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026?(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-01-06 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 29%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.55 | Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.55 | Will George Pickens play for New Orleans Saints in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Will George Pickens play for Buffalo Bills in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-27 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will Kyler Murray be traded?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-26 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Israel closes its airspace by June 12?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Israel closes its airspace by June 13?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Will D.K. Metcalf be traded?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-02-26 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | |
| 0.55 | Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-11 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government) | Space | 46% | |
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.55 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ta'Niya Latson win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 232_024 San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 243_035 Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 238_072 Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days Emad Mostaque | AI | 74% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.55 | LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Iran leadership change by April 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-09 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-03-26 | CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Geopolitics | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Massimo Giunta(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-08 | 237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis | AI | 59% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-08 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets (market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 242_026 Rocket point-to-point travel will win over hyperloop due to Starship launch cadence Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 38% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Pistons vs. Magic(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Galions vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LFL Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 236_025 Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes Andrew Yang | Real Estate | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Abidjan 2: Niels Visker vs Michael Mmoh(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning (market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | |
| 0.55 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | |
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2025-11-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons (market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Barcząca Esports vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Ducks vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% |