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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	Will factory farming ever be de facto banned and enforced across the contiguous United States?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-16	241_059 Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems Peter Diamandis	Energy	54%
0.57	NextDecade Corp (NEXT) (CIK 0001612720)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang	Capital Markets	86%
0.57	Contextualizing Biological Language Models across Modalities via Logit-Space Contrastive Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	RegMix-D: Dynamic Data Mixing via Proxy Training Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	Transient Bias for CP Domain Wall Decay and Dark Matter	arxiv 2026-06-17	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Data-Driven Discovery of a Simple Phantom-Crossing Dark Energy Parametrization	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 2.1.4	github_release 2026-06-11	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 2.1.3	github_release 2026-05-26	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	facebookresearch/mtm Datasets-v1	github_release 2023-04-27	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	52%
0.57	Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	SIMBA: ABidirectional Retrieval Forward Simulation Framework for Modeling FY-4A GIIRS Hyperspectral Infrared Radiances Toward NWP Applications	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.57	PrefSQA: Pairwise Preference Prediction for Speech Quality Assessment and the Critical Role of High Quality Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Towards Modality-imbalanced Federated Graph Learning: A Data Synthesis-based Approach	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	PaAno+: Multiscale Encoding and Cross-Variable Attention for Time Series Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Multimodal Concept Bottleneck Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	Flow Map Denoisers: Traversing the Distortion-Perception Plane for Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.57	CzechDocs: A Multiway Parallel Dataset of Formatted Documents for Minority Languages in Czechia	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.57	The magic of the gravitational vacuum	arxiv 2026-06-18	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	Higher-loop wormhole length in sine-dilaton gravity from DSSYK Krylov complexity	arxiv 2026-06-18	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	FDA NDA016673: DEXTROSE 5% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — BAXTER HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-11	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Will San Francisco Giants win the 2026 National League Championship Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	ROB_008 Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... Morgan Stanley	Robotics	37%
0.57	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?	manifold 2026-06-20	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	29%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup: Will there be at least one 4–0 knockout match AND fewer than 8 total 3–0 knockout matches?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-19	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	will x have a significant other by the end of ross(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-21	238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.57	will x have a significant other by the end of ross(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-21	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	233_007 In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. Joe Liemandt	Education	41%
0.57	U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock	Robotics	17%
0.57	Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-22	242_039 NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator)	Space	46%
0.57	What will be the total number of FIFA world cup markets created on Manifold by July 15?	manifold 2026-06-21	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	61%
0.57	Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-27	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.57	Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	US military draft authorized in 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-03-12	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	Trump Lost parliament Support Before 2028(market prob: 93%)	manifold 2026-06-23	236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin	AI	36%
0.57	Trump Lost parliament Support Before 2028(market prob: 93%)	manifold 2026-06-23	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	UnBias-Plus: Detect, Explain, and Rewrite Bias	arxiv 2026-06-22	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.57	BEV-Denoise: Learning Intrinsic Noise for Accurate Bird's-Eye-View Semantic Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.57	Concept-Constrained Prompt Learning for Few-Shot CLIP Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-21	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.57	Minimax Quantile Lower Bounds for Interactive Statistical Decision Making with Privacy	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Minimax Quantile Lower Bounds for Interactive Statistical Decision Making with Privacy	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.57	Minimax Quantile Lower Bounds for Interactive Statistical Decision Making with Privacy	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Retrieval-Augmented Multimodal Learning for Enzyme-Substrate Interaction Prediction Under Low-Homology Shift	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Orientation matters: Consequences for gravitational-wave background detectability	arxiv 2026-06-22	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Minimum Virtual Proper Time and Finite Mass--Charge Matching in QED	arxiv 2026-06-21	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Radiative Lifting of $\mathbb{Z}_3$ Domain-Wall Degeneracy in a Type-III Seesaw Model: Implications for Leptogenesis and Gravitational Waves	arxiv 2026-06-21	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	FDA ANDA074653: HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA ANDA079046: OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ACTAVIS ELIZABETH	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA040330: PERCOCET (ACETAMINOPHEN) — OZANTRI	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA077858: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — RISING	fda 2026-06-18	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group B(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Which scores will happen on 24 June? FIFA world cup	manifold 2026-06-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will United Russia gain seats in the 2026 Russian Duma Elections?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-23	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	MedPCFM: Improving Medical Point Cloud Completion by Integrating Point Transformers and Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.57	MVG-KAN: Multi-View Geo-Wind Guided KAN for PM$_{2.5}$ Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_010 Fundamental cost of clean electricity drops by another multiple of 4 over 2026-2031+; precipitous decline drives solar to ~1/3 of all global electricity generation. Wright's Law mathematical certainty applied to silicon PV + lithium-ion storage + elect... Ramez Naam	Energy	70%
0.57	Mind the Heads: Topological Representation Alignment for Multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.57	Exact Schur-Sylvester Dimensionality Reductions for Non-Smooth Stochastic Complexity and Manifold Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	Efficient Time-Domain Simulation of USV Motions in Short-Crested Irregular Waves Using an IRF-Based Framework	arxiv 2026-06-23	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.57	Neutrinoless double $β$ decay and leptogenesis in seesaw model	arxiv 2026-06-23	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.57	Non-Standard Interactions and Light Z' Bosons from CEvNS Data at CONUS+: A Statistical Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-22	246_018 Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers. Alex Wissner-Gross	Energy	36%
0.57	Forms, half-densities, and the quantum odd symplectic category in the BV formalism	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	FDA ANDA206822: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — PHARM ASSOC	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA NDA202245: CODEINE SULFATE (CODEINE SULFATE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA ANDA207152: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — AUROBINDO PHARMA	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA077723: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND IBUPROFEN (HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE) — STRIDES PHARMA	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Brandon Aiyuk play for New England Patriots in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-23	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.57	Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	Exact Score: Japan 2 - 3 Sweden?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Absci Corp (ABSI) (CIK 0001672688)	edgar_8k 2026-06-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Absci Corp (ABSI) (CIK 0001672688)	edgar_8k 2026-06-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Point Cloud Diffusion with Global and Local Reconstruction for Instance-Level 3D Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Auto-Configured Explainable Graph Neural Networks for Multi-Site Pollution Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	FDA ANDA207418: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ASCENT PHARMS INC	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA206245: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — NOVEL LABS INC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA203602: MORPHINE SULFATE (MORPHINE SULFATE) — NOVEL LABS INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.57	Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5)(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Spain to score first vs. Uruguay?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5)(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5)(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	2027 US Open - Men’s singles winner?	manifold 2026-06-26	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Generative Retrieval via Diffusion Transformer with Metric-Ordered Sequence Training and Hybrid-Policy Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-25	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.57	A Latent ODE Approach to Spatiotemporal Modeling of Cine Cardiac MRI	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.57	Explainable Ensemble-Based Machine Learning Models for Detecting the Presence of Cirrhosis in Hepatitis C Patients	arxiv 2026-06-25	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQA	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	Geometric Gradient Rectification for Safe Open-Set Semi-Supervised Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	The gauge invariance of non-perturbative vertex prescriptions	arxiv 2026-06-25	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	5%
0.57	Bipartite entanglement of the primordial Majorana during inflation	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Lyman-Alpha Forest and its Cross-Correlation with High-Redshift Galaxies in Effective Field Theory at the Field Level	arxiv 2026-06-24	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	FDA BLA761115: TRODELVY (SACITUZUMAB GOVITECAN-HZIY) — IMMUNOMEDICS INC	fda 2026-06-24	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	FDA NDA019891: DILAUDID (HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — RHODES PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA ANDA077154: FENTANYL-75 (FENTANYL) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will Owen Caissie win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Spread: DR Congo (-1.5)(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	France vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	FDA ANDA210506: HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ASCENT PHARMS INC	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Will Gunnar Henderson lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.57	Will Gunnar Henderson lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.57	Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.57	Bellucci vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5)(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	How many World Cup games will be decided by penalty shootout in 2026?	manifold 2026-06-28	FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	68%
0.57	Will a meteor hit earth tomorrow?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-28	241_040 A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act Eric Schmidt	AI	46%
0.57	What will be the sum of my AP Scores this.July?	manifold 2026-06-27	233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price	Education	39%
0.57	Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.57	Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Spread: England (-3.5)(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Morocco?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will this century's World Cup winners advance to the round of 16?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	55%
0.57	Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	55%
0.57	Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Will Naomi Osaka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.57	Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5)(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	McMg: A Learned Phase-Space Multi-channel Multigrid Preconditioner for Helmholtz Equation	arxiv 2026-06-29	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.57	Curvature-Guided Sheaf Diffusion for Unsupervised Community Detection on Heterophilic Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-29	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Physically-Constrained Harmonic Separation for Robust Heart and Respiratory Rate Estimation from Wrist Photoplethysmography	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	Kriging and neural network models for pressure losses across perforated plates	arxiv 2026-06-28	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.57	Kriging and neural network models for pressure losses across perforated plates	arxiv 2026-06-28	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	LC-ICL: Label-Guided Contrastive In-Context Learning for Robust Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-28	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Realtime Wind Estimation using Low Cost Quadrotor Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles	arxiv 2026-06-29	AI_006 True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... Andrej Karpathy	AI	38%
0.57	PS-MOT: Cultivating Instance Awareness from Point Seeds for Multi-Object Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Positivity properties of observables in planar maximally supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory	arxiv 2026-06-29	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.57	FDA ANDA091308: IMIQUIMOD (IMIQUIMOD) — APOTEX INC	fda 2026-06-24	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	facebookresearch/ProgramBench v1.2.2	github_release 2026-06-23	234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	facebookresearch/ProgramBench v1.2.2	github_release 2026-06-23	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.57	facebookresearch/ProgramBench v1.2.2	github_release 2026-06-23	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.57	Will Brad Ausmus be the next Red Sox manager?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.57	Will Christian Anderson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Austin Reaves play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock	Robotics	56%
0.57	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Alyssa Thomas win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Will LeBron James play for the Charlotte Hornets in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: United States O/U 1.5(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will abortion be more morally acceptable among Americans in 2027 than in 2026, according to Gallup?(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-07-01	246_039 Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	22%
0.57	😂 MaKe Me LaUgH! 😂 [ADD OPTIONS]	manifold 2026-07-01	240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin	AI	32%
0.57	Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-07-01	246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	What the total amount of mana will manifolders managram me?	manifold 2026-06-30	241_020 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers Eric Schmidt	Energy	49%
0.57	巴拉圭战胜了德国欸(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-30	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	Vistra Corp. (VST) (CIK 0001692819)	edgar_8k 2026-06-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	STEB: Style Text Embedding Benchmark	arxiv 2026-06-30	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.57	TabPATE: Differentially Private Tabular In-Context Learning Without Public Data	arxiv 2026-06-30	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.57	FDA NDA218275: ZEVTERA (CEFTOBIPROLE MEDOCARIL SODIUM) — ISTX	fda 2026-06-26	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.57	Will a player representing Switzerland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5(market prob: 29%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs BIG (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.57	Portugal vs. Croatia: Portugal O/U 2.5(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will a player representing Morocco be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-07-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Cabo Verde?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will USA beat Belgium? \| ⚽ 2026 FIFA World Cup(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-07-02	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Mirror-Fusion Attention for Reflection-Aware Self-Supervised Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-07-01	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.57	Evaluating Pretrained Music Embeddings for Cross-Performance Jazz Standard Recognition	arxiv 2026-07-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA087003: ROXICET (ACETAMINOPHEN) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%