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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.59	Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Beyond U-Net: A Latent-Representation-Aligned Skip-Free Backbone for Flow-Matching Speech Enhancement	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Evaluating the Interpretability of Sparse Autoencoders with Concept Annotations	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	video-SALMONN-R$^3$: Learning to ReWatch, ReAsk, and ReAnswer for Efficient Video Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-23	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.59	CompressKV: Semantic-Retrieval-Guided KV-Cache Compression for Resource-Efficient Long-Context LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.59	JupOtter: Cell-Level Bug Detection in Jupyter Notebooks	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	PROTECT-90: A Fault Dataset for Power System Protection	arxiv 2026-06-23	TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	—	35%
0.59	NeuroSonic: Conditional Flow Matching for EEG-to-Speech Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	RoPE-Aware Bit Allocation for KV-Cache Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.59	Hessian-augmented Supervised Learning for Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman PDEs	arxiv 2026-06-22	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.59	Hessian-augmented Supervised Learning for Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman PDEs	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	DREAM: Dense Retrieval Embeddings via Autoregressive Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	AVOC: Enhancing Hour-Level Audio-Video Understanding in Omni-Modal LLMs via Retrieval-Inspired Token Compression	arxiv 2026-06-23	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	From Open Waters to Enclosed Cabins: ProteusVPR for Cross-Scene Visual Place Recognition in Maritime Perception and Cabin Inspection	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.59	Non-perturbative, background independent Fock representations for canonical quantum gravity	arxiv 2026-06-23	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.59	FDA ANDA202537: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — VISTAPHARM LLC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA ANDA214378: TAPENTADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TAPENTADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA ANDA211748: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ALKEM LABS LTD	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA209021: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ASCENT PHARMS INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA NDA021011: ROXICODONE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy	57%
0.59	Nano Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE) (CIK 0001923891)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	S_COMPUTE_100GW_2030 Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030	compute_scale	20%
0.59	Nano Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE) (CIK 0001923891)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	S_COMPUTE_100GW_2030 Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030	compute_scale	20%
0.59	EchoStar CORP (SATS) (CIK 0001415404)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Expresso-AI: Explainable Video-Based Deep Learning Models for Depression Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Neural Machine Translation for Low-Resource Tangkhul--English	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_034 The AI-native education model will see global adoption within approximately 5 years — driven by sub-$1,000 offline tablets and AI tutors capable of lifting historically lagging demographics (e.g. New Mexico, Sub-Saharan Africa) into top-tier performanc... Joe Liemandt	Education	22%
0.59	Heterogeneous and Adept Snapshot Distillation for 3D Semantic Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	RAS: Measuring LLM Safety Through Refusal Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	Two-dimensional Hyperbolic RNN Neural Quantum State	arxiv 2026-06-24	231_047 Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.59	REViT: Roto-reflection Equivariant Convolutional Vision Transformer	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.59	Tracing Target Answers in Poisoned Retrieval Corpora via Token Influence Attribution	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	SA-LIVO: Efficient LiDAR-Inertial-Visual Odometry with Subspace-Aware Degeneracy Handling	arxiv 2026-06-24	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.59	Resonant false vacuum decay in two dimensions on a 4000-qubit quantum annealer	arxiv 2026-06-24	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	14%
0.59	FDA ANDA207418: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ASCENT PHARMS INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA202116: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ALVOGEN	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Spread: Belgium (-2.5)(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Panama vs. England end in a draw?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	What will my 2027 AIME I score be?	manifold 2026-06-26	SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	45%
0.59	Will Cowork be added to the Claude iOS app on June 26, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-06-26	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.59	Simulation-based inference for rapid Bayesian parameter estimation in epidemiological models: a comparison with MCMC	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.59	\textsc{DiARC}: Distinguishing Positive and Negative Samples Helps Improving ARC-like Reasoning Ability of Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Fast algorithms for learning a Gaussian under halfspace truncation with optimal sample complexity	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Accelerated sampling using SamAdams variable timesteps and position-adaptive Langevin dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Escaping Iterative Parameter-Space Noise: Differentially Private Learning with a Hypernetwork	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Sketched Linear Contrastive Learning: Approximation, Optimization, and Statistical Scaling	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Latent Diffusion Posterior Sampling with Surrogate Likelihood Guidance for PDE Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Dataset Usage Inference without Shadow Models or Held-out Data	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_022 From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Mapping Political-Elite Networks in Europe with a Multilingual Joint Entity-Relation Extraction Pipeline	arxiv 2026-06-25	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	From Vajrayana Tara to Bengali Baul: A Computational Study of Lexical Transmission Across Buddhist, Shakta, and Vaishnava Traditions in Bengal	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Closing the Quality Gap in Low-Resource Text-to-Speech: LoRA Fine-Tuning of VoxCPM2 for Khmer and Korean	arxiv 2026-06-25	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.59	Extracting Problem and Method Sentence from Scientific Papers: A Context-enhanced Transformer Using Formulaic Expression Desensitization	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	UAV-MapFusion: RTK-Aligned Uncertainty-Aware Coarse-to-Fine Multi-Session UAV Mapping	arxiv 2026-06-25	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.59	Universal Lichnerowicz Lifting of Near-Horizon Soft Modes	arxiv 2026-06-25	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	HALO II: Constraining Hubble constant $H_{0}$ through continuum delay fitting of Fairall 9	arxiv 2026-06-25	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Will Scotland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 85%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	FDA ANDA040545: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA NDA022555: CYSVIEW KIT (HEXAMINOLEVULINATE HYDROCHLORIDE) — PHOTOCURE ASA	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA ANDA091633: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND IBUPROFEN (HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE) — SUN PHARM INDS INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA074597: HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2025-11-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spread: Netherlands (-5.5)(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Spread: Netherlands (-5.5)(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.59	Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? (market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-28	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.59	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will the Democrats win at least 222 seats? // Will Trump be impeached during his second term?	manifold 2026-06-29	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.59	MIDDLEBY Corp (MIDD) (CIK 0000769520)	edgar_8k 2026-06-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will there be 30+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-06-30	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Gravitational Duals from Equations of State II: Large Hierarchies and False Vacua	arxiv 2026-06-29	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	MATCH: Modulating Attention via In-Context Retrieval for Long-Context Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Making Multimodal LLMs Reliable Chart Data Extractors: A Benchmark and Training Framework	arxiv 2026-06-29	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Rethinking Generative Reconstruction Attacks against Graph Neural Network Models	arxiv 2026-06-29	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Two-Stage Prompt Optimization for Few-Shot Relation Extraction: From Reasoning-Guided Search to Gradient-Guided Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-28	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	The Verbose Context Problem in Medical Records	arxiv 2026-06-28	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.59	Wireless Backdoor Attack and Defense for Semantic Communications over Multiple Access Channel	arxiv 2026-06-29	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Predict, Reuse, and Repair: Accelerating Dynamic Sparse Attention for Long-Context LLM Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-29	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Your Data Manifold is Secretly a Reward Model: Shell-LCC for Text-to-Video Generation	arxiv 2026-06-29	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.59	Diagnosing and Mitigating Retrieval Bottlenecks in LLM-Based Cold-Start Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Chamber geometry and specification numbers of Boolean threshold functions	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.59	Can OCR-VLMs Read Devanagari? A Stress-Test Benchmark and Post-Correction Study	arxiv 2026-06-28	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	Cross-Spectral Stereo Inertial Odometry	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Multi-Contact Force Estimation for Continuum Robots via Gaussian-Parameterized Factor Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Quark and hybrid stars with renormalization group improvement of NNLO perturbative QCD	arxiv 2026-06-28	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.59	Quark and hybrid stars with renormalization group improvement of NNLO perturbative QCD	arxiv 2026-06-28	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.59	Velocity dependence of holographic entanglement entropy in a charged plasma	arxiv 2026-06-28	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	facebookresearch/ProgramBench v1.2.0	github_release 2026-06-22	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.59	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-06	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2025-11-04	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.59	LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	SPC_006 Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, generating estimated annual revenues exceeding $20 billion — internal cash flow essentially eliminates SpaceX's requirement for public market capital and funds high-risk developme... SpaceX	Space	88%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community	AI	40%
0.59	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time Eric Schmidt	Robotics	28%
0.59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.59	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.59	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.59	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2025-09-14	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.59	Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.59	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-16	246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	41%
0.59	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-08	INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy	57%
0.59	Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Android's age verification system before 2027?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-04-29	237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.59	Will "Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should S..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-26	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	When will Yao Ye beat me in Codeforces rating?	manifold 2026-04-25	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Which side will win in "The Prediction Market Debate"?	manifold 2026-04-24	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-23	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 39%)	manifold 2026-04-23	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-04-23	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.59	Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	elon musk attorney claims openai sam altman stole charity high stakes legal fight begins	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.59	elon musk attorney claims openai sam altman stole charity high stakes legal fight begins	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.59	victims families sue openai over 212750411.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	article 50737037 8af6 5e07 bc19 5c0733af24d2.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	article70923057.ece	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	article	gdelt 2026-04-30	232_028 In AI age there will be unlimited entrepreneurial opportunity; the 'only AI' displacement narrative is wrong. Ben Horowitz	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	microsoft delivers a promising quarter but cant shake software fears.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	article 786e89ac 593b 52cb bf49 5014eeeab838.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	meta stock drops company ramps 233826186.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.59		gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.59	ch robinson chrw q1 2026 232738016.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.59	Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.59	LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.59	Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will US Average Gas Prices rise or fall 10 cents in one day in May 2026?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-04-30	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.59	will my application to the 2026 LWCW be accepted? [short fuse](market prob: 71%)	manifold 2026-04-30	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	On what days will I go to the bathroom more than 5 times a day	manifold 2026-04-28	236_019 Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer Andrew Yang	Robotics	44%
0.59	LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.59	XQC plays RLcraft again before June?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-01	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 95%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Ningbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-04-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	How many members will Reform UK have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Conditional on Manifest 2026 having fox-and-hedgehog shirts, how many of 20 random attendees will know the reference?	manifold 2026-05-01	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.59	will i qualify for arml tiebreaker 2026?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-04-27	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.59	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Wild vs. Avalanche(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.59	Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	What will be the outcome of the controversy concerning R. F. Kuang's Taipei Story ARC?	manifold 2026-05-04	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.59	Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.59	Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.59	Will I speak to a human in the next week?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-04	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-03	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-03	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	Will the US average gas price hit $5 per gallon in May 2026?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-05	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.59	Will New York City temperature go up in the next 24h?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-05	234_033 David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months David Holz	Robotics	12%
0.59	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	247_039 Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right Dave Blundin	Crypto	54%
0.59	Twist Bioscience Corp (TWST) (CIK 0001581280)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) (CIK 0001907982)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	247_039 Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right Dave Blundin	Crypto	54%