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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.58	Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Spread: Athletics (-1.5)(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.58	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.58	Will there be a VAR/refereeing controversy that causes a team to officially protest a World Cup 2026 group-stage result(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-06-16	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.58	Export controls on Fable 5 get rescinded within 72 hours of the release of GPT 5.6?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-16	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.58	Export controls on Fable 5 get rescinded within 72 hours of the release of GPT 5.6?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-16	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.58	A Perception vs. Distortion Perspective on Score-Based Generative Channel Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.58	Propagating Structural Guidance: Synthesizing Fluorescein Angiography from Fundus Images and Sparse OCT Scans	arxiv 2026-06-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.58	Task-guided cross-subject latent alignment: a multi-encoder-decoder VAE	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	Privacy from Symmetry: Orthogonally Equivariant Transformers for LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.58	EHRNote-ChatQA: A Benchmark for Evidence-Grounded Multi-Turn Clinical Question Answering over Longitudinal Discharge Summaries	arxiv 2026-06-14	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.58	Effect of $ξRφ^2$ non-minimal coupling on gravitational light bending	arxiv 2026-06-15	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Generalized Unimodular Gravity and Cosmological Perturbations	arxiv 2026-06-15	234_038 Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity Alex Wissner-Gross	Real Estate	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA077083: LEFLUNOMIDE (LEFLUNOMIDE) — BARR	fda 2026-06-02	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.58	Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	AUT_023 Urban air mobility (eVTOL) market will generate $29 billion by 2030, scaling exponentially to over $1 trillion by 2040 — ~35x growth over 10 years as regulatory certification, manufacturing capacity, and urban vertiport infrastructure mature. Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.58	Will Freddy Peralta win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-17	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.58	Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-17	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	Descriptor: Certus Caliber Classification Gunshot Dataset (C3GD)	arxiv 2026-06-16	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.58	Temporal Preference Optimization for Unsupervised Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-16	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.58	FoundCause: Causal Discovery with Latent Confounders from Observational Data	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Beyond Visual Cues: CoT-Enhanced Reasoning for Semi-supervised Medical Image Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Blind Recovery of Latent Domains via Unsupervised Symmetry Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	A fairness-aware extension of Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis for ranking	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Another Look at Log-PCA for Probability Measures: A Dynamical Formulation and Statistical Convergence	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Derivation of height field theory for the two-dimensional classical dimer model from a Grassmann-integral representation	arxiv 2026-06-15	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	Will Kazuma Okamoto win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Carlos Correa lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Julio Rodríguez lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Julio Rodríguez lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.58	Will Julio Rodríguez lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.58	How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?	manifold 2026-06-18	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.58	Will Croatia make it to at LEAST 3rd place of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Serve Robotics Inc. /DE/ (SERV) (CIK 0001832483)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	CMQ_051 Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla	Robotics	37%
0.58	Accenture plc (ACN) (CIK 0001467373)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.58	Graph Grounded Cross Attention Transformer Neural Network for Structurally Constrained Full Event Sequence Generation in Predictive Process Monitoring	arxiv 2026-06-17	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.58	Seed-Guided Semi-Supervised Clustering by A-Contrario Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Online Distributional Prediction via Latent Cluster Geometry Under Drift and Corruption	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Online Distributional Prediction via Latent Cluster Geometry Under Drift and Corruption	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Transient Bias for CP Domain Wall Decay and Dark Matter	arxiv 2026-06-17	230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.58	facebookresearch/mtm Datasets-v1	github_release 2023-04-27	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Spread: Haiti (-1.5)(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Free Lottery (dark matter)(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-19	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.58	PSCT-Net: Geometry-Aware Pediatric Skull CT Reconstruction via Differentiable Back-Projection and Attention-Guided Refinement	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.58	QueryGaussian: Scalable and Training-Free Open-Vocabulary 3D Instance Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	FineREX: Fine-Tuned NER-RE for Human Smuggling Knowledge Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	PerceptionDLM: Parallel Region Perception with Multimodal Diffusion Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.58	Scalable Training of Spatially Grounded 2D Vision-Language Models for Radiology	arxiv 2026-06-18	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	Multi-Modal Contrastive Learning for Implicit Earth Embeddings via Location Tying	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_016 AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — parsing raw visual and radar data in space, downlinking only actionable insights rather than raw imagery; permanently handing tedious low-cognitive tasks to AI and reserving human... Ben Lamm	Space	72%
0.58	Multi-Modal Contrastive Learning for Implicit Earth Embeddings via Location Tying	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.58	Many-body chirality of topological stabilizer states	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.58	Constraining ADD black holes at the LHC with $\sqrt{s} = 14$ TeV	arxiv 2026-06-18	S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028	compute_scale	40%
0.58	Generating Function of single-centered Black Hole Index in CHL Models	arxiv 2026-06-17	246_034 Thousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power law. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Deriving effective descriptions and signal predictions for dynamical gravitational systems	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Partial-wave unitarity and long-range interactions	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.58	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-27	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-27	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.58	Will San Francisco Giants win the 2026 National League Championship Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-19	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.58	Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2025-12-19	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2025-11-21	236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.58	Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	36%
0.58	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.58	Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.58	Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.58	Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.58	Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.58	Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Will Mr Beast pass Messi in amount of subscribers/followers before the world cup ends?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-22	244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.58	Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.58	Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.58	Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.58	Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	A Spectral Theory of Normalized Corrected GNN Propagation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	PeLAP-A: Adaptive Latent Pruning for Lightweight Latent Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Robust Diffusion Models via Divergence-Induced Weighted Denoising	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.58	Uncertainty-based Debiasing and Unlearning for Decontamination	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	BabelJudge: Measuring LLM-as-a-Judge Reliability Across Languages and Agent Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-21	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	MixedPEFT: Combining Multiple PEFT Methods with Mixed Objectives for Unsupervised Domain Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-20	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	Nonlinear Geometrizability of State-Dependent Proto-Area in Approximate Holographic Codes	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	FDA ANDA218016: SOLRIAMFETOL HYDROCHLORIDE (SOLRIAMFETOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-17	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.58	FDA ANDA202718: MORPHINE SULFATE (MORPHINE SULFATE) — TEVA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.58	facebookresearch/tensor-layouts v0.3.0	github_release 2026-04-20	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.58	Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Trump and Putin not meet?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2025-09-30	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	Will Alex Bores run for Congress in 2028?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-06-24	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	SURGELLM: Rethinking Multi-Task Evaluation through Task-Aware Feature Gating with Class-Balanced Normalization	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.58	QC-SMOTE: Quality-Controlled SMOTE for Imbalanced Classification	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.58	Automated Residual Plot Assessment With the R Package autovi and the Shiny Application autovi.web	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	3D Masked Autoencoders are Robust Learners of Volumetric and Multimodal Cellular Representations for Microscopy	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Prediction of Viscoelastic Droplet Impact Dynamics Using a Vision Transformer-Based Approach	arxiv 2026-06-22	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.58	The Topology of the Universe	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.58	Second-order effective renormalized Hamiltonian of Quantum Chromodynamics	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Late-Time Oscillating Quintessence in Light of DESI	arxiv 2026-06-23	248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.58	As above, so below: assessing extremeness of the neutron-star equation of state based on the unstable branch	arxiv 2026-06-22	INF_053 Valar Atomics "Nuclear Gigasite" model — clustering hundreds of identical High-Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGR) on a single remote heavily-regulated site — will emerge as the dominant deployment architecture for advanced fission, superseding scattered S... Isaiah Taylor	Energy	28%
0.58	Controlled Chaos in 4D SCFTs	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	FDA ANDA207511: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIBROW HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.58	FDA ANDA204021: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — NOVEL LABS INC	fda 2026-06-18	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.58	FDA ANDA077712: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA NDA007337: PERCODAN (ASPIRIN) — ENDO OPERATIONS	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	Will Iraq be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.58	Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	236_048 Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	53%
0.58	Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.58	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.58	The Whaleslayer Coinflip V2(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-25	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in July 2026?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-22	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.58	Will I publish my personal site/blog this month?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-22	232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	70%
0.58	Will I publish my personal site/blog this month?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-22	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.58	Serve Robotics Inc. /DE/ (SERV) (CIK 0001832483)	edgar_8k 2026-06-24	CMQ_051 Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. Brett Adcock / Elon Musk / Vinod Khosla	Robotics	37%
0.58	Position Spaces and Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.58	Spam and Sentiment Detection in Arabic Tweets Using MARBERT Model	arxiv 2026-06-24	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Improved Large Language Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.58	FedReLa: Imbalanced Federated Learning via Re-Labeling	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_010 Agentic commerce will radically redistribute — not grow — the global commerce stack, severely affecting traditional software platforms, global payment processors, digital advertising networks, and physical logistics providers. Consumer delegation of pr... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	70%
0.58	Efficient Analytic Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Modal Regression	arxiv 2026-06-23	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	A Framework for Directed Hypergraph Signal Processing via tensor t-SVD	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Low-Cost High-Order Singular Value Decomposition for Tensor-Based Reconstruction from Sparse Sensor Measurements: Urban Flow and Air-Quality Applications	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Fault of Our Stars: Behavioral Drivers of Rating-Sentiment Incongruence	arxiv 2026-06-24	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.58	SAGE-Nav: Leveraging LLM Planning and Alignment Fusion for Hierarchical Scene Graph-Guided Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.58	Lepton number violation at hadron colliders via pseudo-Dirac heavy neutral leptons	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.58	Fermion mass relations in one-parameter modular models	arxiv 2026-06-23	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.58	FDA ANDA202116: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ALVOGEN	fda 2026-06-18	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.58	Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.58	Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.58	Will Beşiktaş Gain win Turkey BSL?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.58	Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Trump set foot in Greenland by the end of July 2027?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-26	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.58	Will there be another earthquake rating 7.0 or above in Japan within the next 7 days?(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-26	240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 Peter Diamandis	Energy	34%
0.58	Game 1 FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Result?	manifold 2026-06-26	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	TAVR-VLM: Risk-Conditioned Causal Grounding for Hallucination-Resistant Report Generation	arxiv 2026-06-25	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	Cross-Head Attention Uplift Network with Inverse Propensity Score under Unobserved Confounding	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.58	Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQA	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.58	Term-Centric Hierarchy Induction from Heterogeneous Corpora	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	Nemotron-TwoTower: Diffusion Language Modeling with Pretrained Autoregressive Context	arxiv 2026-06-25	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.58	Dirichlet, Neumann, Mixed and self-dual holography: (self-dual) Yang--Mills theory II	arxiv 2026-06-24	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	VISA INC. (V) (CIK 0001403161)	edgar_8k 2026-06-26	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	FDA ANDA090964: OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.58	Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-20	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.58	Spread: Germany (-1.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Spread: Argentina (-1.5)(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Spread: Argentina (-2.5)(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	20%
0.58	Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.58	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.58	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.58	Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Morocco?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%
0.58	Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.58	Will "Why are adversaries assumed to be incapable o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-29	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.58	Will the food messages come back from the f.?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-06-29	235_019 Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. Peter Diamandis	Robotics	9%
0.58	Schrodinger, Inc. (SDGR) (CIK 0001490978)	edgar_8k 2026-06-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will Kevin Gausman strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.58	Will Shohei Ohtani strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%