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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.62	Bridging Data Gaps in Structural Fragility Modeling through Transfer Learning: Methodology and Case Studies	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	Compact Geometric Representations of Hierarchies	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.62	N(CO)$^2$: Neural Combinatorial Optimization with Chance Constraints to Solve Stochastic Orienteering	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Task-Restricted Symmetries in Recurrent Weight Space	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	IndicContextEval: A Benchmark for Evaluating Context Utilisation in Audio Large Language Models Across 8 Indic Languages	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	The Wrong Kind of Right: Quantifying and Localizing Misfired Alignment in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-17	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.62	Modeling Branches for Active Manipulation using Iterative Parameter Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Modeling Branches for Active Manipulation using Iterative Parameter Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-17	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	Constant Time-Delay Leader Following with Neural Networks and Invariant Extended Kalman Filters for Arbitrary Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-17	SPC_021 Relativity Space will revolutionize manufacturing of atmospheric and orbital vehicles by layering AI/ML software with intelligent robotics — drastically reducing part counts and manufacturing latency via autonomous rocket-construction pipelines. Eric Schmidt	Space	45%
0.62	HT-Bench: Benchmarking and Learning Dexterous Full-Hand Tactile Representations with Egocentric Vision	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	HT-Bench: Benchmarking and Learning Dexterous Full-Hand Tactile Representations with Egocentric Vision	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	Viking Hill Dataset: A Lidar-Radar-Camera Dataset for Detection and Segmentation in Forest Scenes	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Monocular 3D Occupancy Perception for Robots on Sidewalks via Hybrid 2D-3D Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.62	Sensor Configuration Matters: A Systematic Evaluation of Multimodal SLAM on Quadruped Robots	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_012 The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... David Holz	Semis	71%
0.62	Object-Centric Residual RL for Zero-Shot Sim-to-Real VLA Enhancement	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	C-ARC: Continuous-Adaptive Range Clustering for Non-Repetitive LiDAR Sensors	arxiv 2026-06-17	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.62	Spatially Stratified Distillation for Heterogeneous Radar Place Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	SC3-Eval: Evaluating Robot Foundation Models via Self-Consistent Video Generation	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	VEGA: Learning Navigation VLAs from In-the-Wild Egocentric Video with Geometric Trajectory Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	VEGA: Learning Navigation VLAs from In-the-Wild Egocentric Video with Geometric Trajectory Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-16	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.62	Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	When will Starship flight 15 happen?	manifold 2026-06-19	246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	28%
0.62	When will Starship flight 15 happen?	manifold 2026-06-19	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.62	World's first quadrillionaire before EOY 2040(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-19	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.62	FlowEdit: Associative Memory for Lifelong Pronunciation Adaptation in Flow-Matching TTS	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	FlowEdit: Associative Memory for Lifelong Pronunciation Adaptation in Flow-Matching TTS	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	What Do Safety-Aligned LLMs Learn From Mixed Compliance Demonstrations?	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.62	Multi-View Decompilation for LLM-Based Malware Classification	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.62	Robust $Q$-learning for mean-field control under Wasserstein uncertainty in common noise	arxiv 2026-06-18	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.62	A Multi-Agent system for Multi-Objective constrained optimization	arxiv 2026-06-18	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	REVEAL++: Differentiable Phenotypic Grouping for Vision-Language Retinal Modeling of Alzheimer's Disease Risk	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.62	Optimal Deterministic Multicalibration and Omniprediction	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	HEPTv2: End-to-End Efficient Point Transformer for Charged Particle Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-18	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.62	Beyond Averaging in John Ellipsoid Approximation: High-Accuracy Algorithms in the Leverage-Score Model	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Self-Adaptive Scale Handling for Forecasting Time Series with Scale Heterogeneity	arxiv 2026-06-18	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	A fast direct solver based neural network for solving PDEs	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Closing the Calibration Gap in Semantic Caching	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Interactive Pareto navigation for deep multi-task learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	Characterizing Narrative Content in Web-scale LLM Pretraining Data	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	MMD-SLAM: Structure-Enhanced Multi-Meta Gaussian Distribution-Guided Visual SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Safe, Real-Time Active Model Discrimination and Fault Diagnosis for Nonlinear Systems via Differentiable Reachability	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	String dynamics of a (2+1)D U(1) quantum link model on a digital quantum computer	arxiv 2026-06-17	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.62	Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2025-12-19	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.62	Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.62	Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Will Solana dip to $10 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.62	Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.62	What will be winning score in ARC's white-box estimation challenge (round 1)?	manifold 2026-06-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	FDA NDA021132: ZYVOX (LINEZOLID) — PFIZER	fda 2026-06-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.62	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.62	Will GPT-5.6 beat Fable 5?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-22	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.62	Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.62	Will the linked Aella market resolve YES?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-23	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.62	GRINQH: Graded Input-based Quantization Hierarchy for Efficient LLM Generation	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	MuPPET: A Benchmark for Contextual Privacy of LLM Assistants in Multi-Party Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.62	Where Is My Physics Wrong? Localized and Identifiable Discovery of Model Discrepancy	arxiv 2026-06-22	232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.62	Discovering Crystal Structure Prediction Algorithms with an AI Co-Scientist	arxiv 2026-06-22	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	When Confidence Takes the Wrong Path: Diagnosing Retrieval-State Lock-In in RAG	arxiv 2026-06-22	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.62	On the Position Bias of On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-21	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	On the Position Bias of On-Policy Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.62	Context-Aware Distillation and Ablation for Text2DSL	arxiv 2026-06-21	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.62	Fed-CausalDiff: Decoupled Synchronization for Federated Do-Simulation and Policy Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Diffusion Models Adapt to Low-Dimensional Structure Under Flexible Coefficient Choices	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Neural Networks as Linear Regression: An Introduction for Statisticians	arxiv 2026-06-22	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	Quantifying the Agreement Between Data-Influence and Data-Similarity to Understand LLM Behavior	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.62	The Anatomy of the CTC Oracle Gap: Acoustic Exhaustion and Linguistic Recovery	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Non-asymptotic estimates of the minimal risk in statistical learning	arxiv 2026-06-22	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.62	BranchShine: Compact Raw-Audio-to-IPA Transcription with a RoPE E-Branchformer Encoder	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	One-Step Flow Matching for Generative Modeling of Path-Dependent Physical Fields	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	A Markov Chain Approach to Preference Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Towards Root Memories: Benchmarking and Enhancing Implicit Logical Memory Retrieval for Personalized LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.62	Breaking the Likelihood Trap: Variance-Calibrated Modulation for Large Language Model Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-21	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.62	BiliVLA: Scene-Aware Vision-Language-Action Model with Reinforcement Learning for Autonomous Biliary Endoscopic Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	ISOPoT: Imaging Sonar Odometry by Point Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	ARP: Enhancing Quantized Skill Abstractions via Visual Alignment and Iterative Refinement for Robotic Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-21	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-29	S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027	macro_recession	30%
0.62	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	How many times will New Glenn launch in 2027?	manifold 2026-06-22	COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack	Space	43%
0.62	How many times will New Glenn launch in 2027?	manifold 2026-06-22	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	22%
0.62	Solving Inverse Problems of Chaotic Systems with Bidirectional Conditional Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.62	EG-VQA: Benchmarking Verifiable Video Question Answering with Grounded Temporal Evidence	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	Poster: Exploring the Limits of Audio-Based Detection of Turkish Phone Call Scams	arxiv 2026-06-23	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.62	CALIBER: Calibrating Confidence Before and After Reasoning in Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.62	Probing the Misaligned Thinking Process of Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.62	RAVEN: A Regime-Aware Variable-context Expert Network for Financial Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.62	Towards Spec Learning: Inference-Time Alignment from Preference Pairs	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.62	E-MRL: Cross-view Aligned Evidence-driven Multimodal Reinforcement Learning for Reliable 3D Tumor Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	A Physics-Informed Fourier-Wavelet Transformer for Multiscale Computational Fluid Dynamics Surrogate Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	EERLoss: A Novel Loss Function for Training Deep Biometric Models. A Case Study in Keystroke Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	MotifGen: Spatiotemporal interpolation of misaligned satellite images via multi-source generative modeling, in an application to tropical cyclones	arxiv 2026-06-23	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	NeuroSonic: Conditional Flow Matching for EEG-to-Speech Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.62	Do LLM Attribution Metrics Transfer? Auditing Retrieval-Augmented Generation Evaluation Across Datasets and Constructs	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.62	Beyond Logprobs: A Multi-Signal Confidence Engine for LLM-Based Document Field Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	Prague Dependency Treebank -- Consolidated 2.0: Enriching a Complex Annotation Scheme	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	AVOC: Enhancing Hour-Level Audio-Video Understanding in Omni-Modal LLMs via Retrieval-Inspired Token Compression	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	FDA ANDA089351: ROXICET (ACETAMINOPHEN) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.62	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-07-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.62	Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.62	Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.62	Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.62	Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-04-29	236_007 US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future Andrew Yang	Macro/Economy	50%
0.62	US-Iran negotiations resume before June 2026? (check description)(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-04-29	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.62	When will the first prediction market ETF launch?	manifold 2026-04-29	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.62	Will the Great Pyramid of Giza Big Void be explored in 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-04-27	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.62	Where will I live in October 2026?	manifold 2026-04-24	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.62	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.62	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.62	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.62	Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.62	Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-04-30	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.62	68878 eutelsat resiste aux manoeuvres de spacex sur le marche americain.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	240_040 Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desire Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	38%
0.62	article 48a69cbd aa05 5138 b47a b170ddd93981.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.62	roth tipping point why 86 135102407.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	microsoft q3 results top expectations driven by intelligent cloud strength 1091450.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	13%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.62	polaris inc q1 2026 earnings 123000514.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.62	spotify spot q1 2026 earnings 160148377.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.62	spotify spot q1 2026 earnings 160148377.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure	—	12%
0.62	N82E16824281393?Item=N82E16824281393&cm sp=Homepage SS P2 24 281 393 04292026	gdelt 2026-04-30	242_004 Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.62	nyt connections today answers hints 30 april 2026	gdelt 2026-04-30	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Mr. Beast run a red button vs. blue button video by the end of the year?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-04-30	229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.62	Which prediction market events will I attend/speak at in 2026? (Read desc)	manifold 2026-05-01	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.62	Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of May 2026?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-01	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-10-09	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.62	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-05	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey	Semis/ASICs	83%
0.62	Will there be a new religious movement in the USA that achieves 10,000+ followers before 2036?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-02	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.62	Will there be a new religious movement in the USA that achieves 10,000+ followers before 2036?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-02	248_026 Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.62	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.62	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.62	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.62	Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_012 AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. Morgan Stanley	Energy	46%
0.62	Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 76%)	manifold 2026-05-04	AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.62	Will I speak to a human in the next week?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-04	237_011 AI agents will have voices in the near future. Alex Finn	AI	43%
0.62	@100Anonymous vs @Jack1 Masters May 2026	manifold 2026-05-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.62	I go through the scaling book this week?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-04	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.62	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 902(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-03	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.62	LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (LSCC) (CIK 0000855658)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_020 Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	74%
0.62	LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (LSCC) (CIK 0000855658)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	SEM_020 Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	74%
0.62	FDA ANDA078257: ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE (ONDANSETRON HYDROCHLORIDE) — ONESOURCE SPECIALTY	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA ANDA205105: METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHYLPHENIDATE HYDROCHLORIDE) — IMPAX LABS INC	fda 2026-04-21	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA ANDA205571: CARBAMAZEPINE (CARBAMAZEPINE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-04-29	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.27.0	github_release 2026-03-13	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.20.0	github_release 2026-02-10	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.62	openai/openai-python v2.10.0	github_release 2025-12-10	232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	44%
0.62	huggingface/transformers v5.0.0rc2	github_release 2026-01-08	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.62	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.18.0-rc1	github_release 2024-10-07	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.62	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.16.0-rc0	github_release 2024-02-26	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.62	pytorch/pytorch v2.3.0	github_release 2024-04-24	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.62	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.62	Will Terminator2 have more Manifold followers than CalibratedGhosts on 2026-05-20?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-05-06	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	Spatiotemporal Convolutions on EEG signal -- A Representation Learning Perspective on Efficient and Explainable EEG Classification with Convolutional Neural Nets	arxiv 2026-05-05	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.62	Amortized Variational Inference for Joint Posterior and Predictive Distributions in Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.62	Graph Neural Network based Hierarchy-Aware Embeddings of Knowledge Graphs: Applications to Yeast Phenotype Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Where Paths Split: Localized, Calibrated Control of Moral Reasoning in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.62	Where Paths Split: Localized, Calibrated Control of Moral Reasoning in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.62	Erase Persona, Forget Lore: Benchmarking Multimodal Copyright Unlearning in Large Vision Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Parametrizing Convex Sets Using Sublinear Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-05-05	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.62	Real-Time Evaluation of Autonomous Systems under Adversarial Attacks	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.62	Replacing Parameters with Preferences: Federated Alignment of Heterogeneous Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.62	APEX: Large-scale Multi-task Aesthetic-Informed Popularity Prediction for AI-Generated Music	arxiv 2026-05-05	241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt	Education	51%
0.62	RAG over Thinking Traces Can Improve Reasoning Tasks	arxiv 2026-05-05	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.62	Mixed-Precision Information Bottlenecks for On-Device Trait-State Disentanglement in Bipolar Agitation Detection	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	SAIL: Structure-Aware Interpretable Learning for Anatomy-Aligned Post-hoc Explanations in OCT	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.62	An explainable hypothesis-driven approach to Drug-Induced Liver Injury with HADES	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.62	Transformers with Selective Access to Early Representations	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.62	Exact ReLU realization of tensor-product refinement iterates	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.62	Fully Automatic Trace Gas Plume Detection	arxiv 2026-05-05	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.62	Population-Aware Imitation Learning in Mean-field Games with Common Noise	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.62	Conformalized Percentile Interval: Finite Sample Validity and Improved Conditional Performance	arxiv 2026-05-04	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.62	When Prompts Interact: Assessing Prompt Arithmetic for Deconfounding under Distribution Shift	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.62	Adaptive Negative Scheduling for Graph Contrastive Learning	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	Multi-fidelity surrogates for mechanics of composites: from co-kriging to multi-fidelity neural networks	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	StreamIndex: Memory-Bounded Compressed Sparse Attention via Streaming Top-k	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	ContextualJailbreak: Evolutionary Red-Teaming via Simulated Conversational Priming	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.62	Shadow-Loom: Causal Reasoning over Graphical World Model of Narratives	arxiv 2026-05-04	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.62	On Surprising Effects of Risk-Aware Domain Randomization for Contact-Rich Sampling-based Predictive Control	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.62	Latent Bridge: Feature Delta Prediction for Efficient Dual-System Vision-Language-Action Model Inference	arxiv 2026-05-04	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.62	Orchestrating Spatial Semantics via a Zone-Graph Paradigm for Intricate Indoor Scene Generation	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.62	FDA ANDA211537: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND SAXAGLIPTIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — TORRENT	fda 2026-04-06	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA ANDA077510: COLESTIPOL HYDROCHLORIDE (COLESTIPOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — IMPAX LABS	fda 2026-04-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	FDA ANDA219509: PREDNISOLONE (PREDNISOLONE) — TP ANDA HOLDINGS	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.62	facebookresearch/omnilingual-asr 0.2.0	github_release 2025-12-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.62	facebookresearch/neuroai v0.1.1	github_release 2026-05-05	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.62	Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%