Validations Queue
114,087 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 467 of 528, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
Pending (total)
114,087
Reviewed
13
Filtered
105,599
page 467 / 528
Showing on page
200
Filters
URL params control source + min-similarity threshold
Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold
Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.
Source0 selected · 0 visible
Bulk action
| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by December 31?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-06-24 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | INF_058 The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decentralized: localized solar + residential/commercial battery storage will shift power management toward microgrids where local DNOs optimize autonomously, turning millions of ho... Andrew Yang | Energy | 52% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 64% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA218722: SOLRIAMFETOL HYDROCHLORIDE (SOLRIAMFETOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — ALKEM LABS LTD | fda 2026-06-17 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA218722: SOLRIAMFETOL HYDROCHLORIDE (SOLRIAMFETOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — ALKEM LABS LTD | fda 2026-06-17 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA209385: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ELITE LABS INC | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA040203: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ACTAVIS ELIZABETH | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA078316: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE AND IBUPROFEN (IBUPROFEN) — BARR LABS INC | fda 2026-06-18 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA209404: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD | fda 2026-06-18 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.57 | Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-15 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Will Brandon Aiyuk play for New England Patriots in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-23 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.57 | Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-25 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-23 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA075964: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — SUN PHARM INDS INC | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 29% | |
| 0.57 | New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | ITF Palma Del Rio: Ayla Aksu vs Anna Kubareva(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 36% | |
| 0.57 | Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Does the Fed rate change in July?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Does the Fed rate change in July?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | 30% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-25 | 234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-25 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-25 | IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt | Education | 48% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-25 | 229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-25 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-25 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-25 | 232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-24 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-24 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-24 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-24 | 235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 26% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA BLA761115: TRODELVY (SACITUZUMAB GOVITECAN-HZIY) — IMMUNOMEDICS INC | fda 2026-06-24 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Uzbekistan?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-21 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.57 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.57 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 0.5(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-15 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Manuel Adorni leave the Argentine government before August 1, 2026?(market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 6?(market prob: 100%) | manifold 2026-06-27 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 20% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-26 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA204166: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — VISTAPHARM LLC | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA218359: ACETAMINOPHEN AND IBUPROFEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD | fda 2026-06-10 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA040894: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — GENUS | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-23 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-24 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance(market prob: 74%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | FUT_023 'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Iran full airspace closure by July 15?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Wimbledon ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-28 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-27 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance(market prob: 89%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-06-26 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | |
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-29 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Will Dayana Yastremska be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Will there be 30+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: New York Liberty (-1.5)(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: New York Liberty (-2.5)(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of July 2026?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-06-30 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-06-30 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Deltarune Chapter 6 have a hospital dark world?(market prob: 36%) | manifold 2026-06-29 | 246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 21% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 87% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-28 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin | AI/Architecture | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-28 | ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg | Biotech/Longevity | 70% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-29 | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 5% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-06-28 | 235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 26% | ||
| 0.57 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to Advance(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Will Brad Ausmus be the next Red Sox manager?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 242_056 AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 16% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kingston Flemings win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-24 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | United States to win the second half?(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-06-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Wimbledon ATP: Completed Match: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Charlotte Hornets in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.57 | Will LeBron James play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Austin Reaves play for the Memphis Grizzlies in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-22 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Cary: William Manning vs Michael Mmoh(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Milan: Completed Match: Elmer Moeller vs Pierluigi Basile(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-06-30 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-06-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-07-01 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-07-01 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-07-01 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-07-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-06-30 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA090895: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC | fda 2026-06-18 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.57 | FDA NDA219304: ROMVIMZA (VIMSELTINIB) — DECIPHERA PHARMS | fda 2026-06-26 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA202970: LEVONORGESTREL AND ETHINYL ESTRADIOL (ETHINYL ESTRADIOL) — XIROMED | fda 2026-06-25 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA211487: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ASCENT PHARMS INC | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advance(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance(market prob: 82%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 16% | |
| 0.57 | Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Portugal vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | ITF San Diego: Krisha Mahendran vs Anya Arora(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-07-02 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-07-02 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-07-01 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-01 | CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn | Consumer | 44% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-01 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA087006: ACETAMINOPHEN AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ACETAMINOPHEN) — PHARMOBEDIENT | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | FDA NDA200534: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — GENUS LIFESCIENCES | fda 2026-06-18 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA078769: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE AND IBUPROFEN (IBUPROFEN) — ACTAVIS ELIZABETH | fda 2026-06-18 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA202419: DIVALPROEX SODIUM (DIVALPROEX SODIUM) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD | fda 2026-06-15 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA091393: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — AVANTHI INC | fda 2026-06-18 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-07-01 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 62% | |
| 0.57 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-06-28 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Zachary Svajda(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis | Macro/Economy | 58% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-07-03 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | will i get a 5 on ap physics 1(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-07-02 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. England: O/U 2.5(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk | AI | 41% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-23 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-02 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-02 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.57 | Miami Marlins vs. Athletics(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% | |
| 0.57 | Miami Marlins vs. Athletics(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Italy vs. Lithuania(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-29 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Mexico vs. England: O/U 4.5(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 15% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-07-05 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Belgium?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Belgium?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Belgium?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-07-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2025-10-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs ex-Vexa - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-07-06 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | manifold 2026-07-06 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-07-06 | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | 15% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-07-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.57 | edgar_8k 2026-07-06 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA209336: FLUOCINOLONE ACETONIDE (FLUOCINOLONE ACETONIDE) — SUN PHARMA CANADA | fda 2026-06-24 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.57 | FDA ANDA212418: ACETAMINOPHEN AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ELITE LABS INC | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Ukraine coup attempt by December 31?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-25 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-06 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-05 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-06 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-06 | AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy | AI | 90% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-06 | 234_003 Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-06 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-05 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-05 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-06 | 234_038 Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity Alex Wissner-Gross | Real Estate | 35% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-06 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-06 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-05 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | arxiv 2026-07-05 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | Will James Harden play for the Memphis Grizzlies in 2026-27?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-23 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 37% |