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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.59	Spread: Spain (-2.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	will judge judy reach 100 years old?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-11	230_025 The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. Peter Diamandis	AI	52%
0.59	Natural-Language Temporal Grounding in Hour-Long Videos is a Search Problem: A Benchmark and Empirical Decomposition	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Tabular Foundation Models for Clinical Survival Analysis via Survival-Aware Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Frozen Multimodal Embeddings for Personality and Cognitive Ability Assessment in Asynchronous Video Interviews	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Quantized Stochastic Primal-Dual Methods for Distributed Optimization under Relaxed Global Geometry	arxiv 2026-06-09	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Efficient Multinomial Logistic Bandit via Frequent Directions	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.59	Conformal Bayes under Label Shift: Post-Hoc Calibration vs. In-Training Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-10	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	DeepRHP: A Hybrid Variational Autoencoder for Designing Random Heteropolymers as Protein Mimics	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Enhancing Spectral Embedding through Robust and Flexible Knowledge Transfer in Electronic Health Records	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Probabilistic Contrastive Pretraining for Multi-task ADME Property Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Accurate and Resource-Efficient Federated Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Density estimation for Hellinger via minimum-distance estimators: mixtures of Gaussians, log-concave, and more	arxiv 2026-06-09	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	GLACIER: A Multimodal Student-Teacher Foundation Model for Molecular Property Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	Detecting Sensitive Personal Information in Japanese Pre-Training Corpora for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	UR-BERT: Scaling Text Encoders for Massively Multilingual TTS Through Universal Romanization and Speech Token Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Planar-Sector LOS Guidance for Interception of Agile Targets with Lifting-Wing Quadcopters	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.59	Weak-field waveforms for generic relativistic orbits	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	FDA BLA761089: AJOVY (FREMANEZUMAB-VFRM) — TEVA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-06-05	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.59	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.18.1	github_release 2026-03-23	242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.14.0	github_release 2026-02-17	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_data_omat-0.1.0	github_release 2025-10-13	242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.9.0	github_release 2025-10-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_data_omol-0.1.1	github_release 2025-09-16	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59	Will Maxx Crosby play for Indianapolis Colts next?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.59	Will Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	GENERAC HOLDINGS INC. (GNRC) (CIK 0001474735)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.59	RICHTECH ROBOTICS INC. (RR) (CIK 0001963685)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	CYB_018 Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — backed by concentrated collective capital of the AI hardware-software industry (Microsoft, NVIDIA, OpenAI), signaling industry-wide belief that humanoid r... Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.59	SmartFont: Dynamic Condition Allocation for Few-Shot Font Generation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	SmartFont: Dynamic Condition Allocation for Few-Shot Font Generation	arxiv 2026-06-11	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Transformer-Guided Graph Attention for Direct Cardiac Mesh Reconstruction: A Structural Digital Twin Framework	arxiv 2026-06-11	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	AfriSUD: A Dependency Treebank Collection for Evaluating Models on African Languages	arxiv 2026-06-10	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Analyzing and Improving Fine-grained Preference Optimization in Medical LVLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	The Tone of Awareness: Topic, Sentiment, and Toxicity Maps During Mental Health Month on TikTok	arxiv 2026-06-11	236_047 New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	55%
0.59	UR-BERT: Scaling Text Encoders for Massively Multilingual TTS Through Universal Romanization and Speech Token Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	EmbodiSteer: Steering Embodiment-Agnostic Visuomotor Policies with Joint-Space Guidance for Zero-Shot Cross-Embodiment Deployment	arxiv 2026-06-11	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.59	The $μ$-extension of iterated integrals and nested sums	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.59	Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.59	Will Wales become a US state before 2045?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-13	FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Energy	39%
0.59	FDA NDA050671: VANCOMYCIN HYDROCHLORIDE IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (VANCOMYCIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — BAXTER HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.8.0	github_release 2019-08-14	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will this resolves to Yes or No(market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-06-14	244_024 Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.59	Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.59	Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5)(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-06-14	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.59	Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will my account be restricted or removed by Monday, June 22?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-15	231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 43%)	manifold 2026-06-15	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.59	Free Lottery (cosmic voids)(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-15	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) (CIK 0001970622)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	SPC_018 Five North America-linked miners — MP Materials, Almonty Industries, Freeport-McMoRan, Alcoa, Teck Resources — are critical dependencies for the emerging space hardware supply chain: copper (regenerative cooling channels, Raptor/BE-4 pressure scaling),... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	65%
0.59	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.6	github_release 2024-02-22	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.59	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.1.1	github_release 2020-03-08	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	US-Iran deal text released by June 19? [Polymarket](market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-06-16	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.59	Will the price of silver exceed $70 at the end of June(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	What will be the total prize pool in Manifold Prize Drawings #30-39?	manifold 2026-06-14	242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk	Auto/Transport	31%
0.59	APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS, INC. (AAOI) (CIK 0001158114)	edgar_8k 2026-06-16	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.59	How Much Do Reviews Really Contribute? A Study on Text-Enriched Matrix Factorization for Recommendations	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Follow the Latent Roadmap: Navigating Revocable Decoding for Diffusion LLMs with Anchor Tokens	arxiv 2026-06-15	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Follow the Latent Roadmap: Navigating Revocable Decoding for Diffusion LLMs with Anchor Tokens	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.59	Robust Spoofed Speech Detection via Temporal Pyramid Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-15	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	Decoupling Semantics from Distortions: Multi-Scale Two-Stream Vision-Language Alignment for AI-Generated Image Quality Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Decision-Weighted Flow Matching for Contextual Stochastic Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	From Affect Prediction to Affect Forecasting: Evidence for Distinct Information Sources in Longitudinal Text	arxiv 2026-06-15	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.59	Learning Interface Breakup: A Geometry-Conditioned Latent Surrogate for Spray Formation	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.59	Fast When, Careful Who: Dual-Process Multiparty Turn-Taking with Diffusion Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-15	232_010 Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing. Peter Diamandis	AI	52%
0.59	Sensor-Conditioned Representation Learning via Scene-Relevant Observation Quotients	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Filtered Conformal Ellipsoids for Graph-Native Time Series	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	From Tokens to Policy: Causal and Interpretable Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Identification	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_016 Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production toward highly complex, multifunctional systems — agentic AI platforms synthesize localized ecological data to enable precision organic farming, transparent environmental prot... Peter Dannenberg	Other	42%
0.59	TCHG: Tri-Trust Conditioned Heterogeneous Graph Learning for Reliable Dynamic Trust Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.59	Elastic ODYN: Differentiable Optimization for Infeasible Control and Learning in Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	The Art of Mixology: Mixup-based Obfuscation for Privacy-Preserving Split Learning in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	SCAR: Semantic Continuity-Aware Retrieval for Efficient Context Expansion in RAG	arxiv 2026-06-15	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	MVOFormer: Flow-Semantic Transformer for Robust Monocular Visual Odometry	arxiv 2026-06-15	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.59	FDA ANDA212374: EMPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (EMPAGLIFLOZIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LIMITED	fda 2026-06-11	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA NDA206321: SAXENDA (LIRAGLUTIDE) — NOVO	fda 2026-06-02	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	FDA ANDA215230: BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE AND TIMOLOL MALEATE (BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-06-11	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA209738: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-06-03	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.59	Will Andrew Novak win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Will Andrew Novak win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.59	Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.59	Waymo in Portland in 2026?(market prob: 49%)	manifold 2026-06-16	240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	24%
0.59	ReAge3D: Re-Aging 3D Faces with View Consistency	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	L-Proto: Language-Aware Episodic Prototypical Training for Multilingual Speaker Verification	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	A Diffusion Approximation for Temporal-Difference Learning with Linear Features under Markovian Noise	arxiv 2026-06-16	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.59	NoiseTilt: Noise-Tilted Reverse Kernels for Diffusion Reward Alignment	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Differential Privacy of Gaussian Process Posterior Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.59	Beyond Visual Cues: CoT-Enhanced Reasoning for Semi-supervised Medical Image Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Meta-classification of one-class classification models using ranking correlation and nearest neighbor	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.59	The Critical Role of Model Selection in Causal Inference: A Comparative Analysis of Classification Models within the InferBERT Framework for Pharmacovigilance	arxiv 2026-06-15	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.59	Contrastive Action-Image Pre-training for Visuomotor Control	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Pushing the Primordial Frontier: Exact Linear Solutions in Multifield Inflation	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Free Lottery (inflationary expansion)(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-06-18	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Will Donald Trump Tweet within the next 7 days?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-18	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.59	RECURSION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (RXRX) (CIK 0001601830)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	EchoStar CORP (SATS) (CIK 0001415404)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) (CIK 0001970622)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	SPC_018 Five North America-linked miners — MP Materials, Almonty Industries, Freeport-McMoRan, Alcoa, Teck Resources — are critical dependencies for the emerging space hardware supply chain: copper (regenerative cooling channels, Raptor/BE-4 pressure scaling),... Morgan Stanley	Markets/Stocks	65%
0.59	MIDDLEBY Corp (MIDD) (CIK 0000769520)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	ThinkDeception: A Progressive Reinforcement Learning Framework for Interpretable Multimodal Deception Detection	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.59	SAERec: Constructing Fine-grained Interpretable Intents Priors via Sparse Autoencoders for Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.59	TMR-GGNN: Credit Card Fraud Detection based on Time-Aware Multi-Relational Guided Graph Neural Network	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Identifying Structural Biases from Causal Mechanism Shifts	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Fair Cognitive Impairment Detection Through Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-17	INF_008 Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.59	Mitigating Scoring Errors and Compensating for Nonverbal Subtests in Speech-Based Dementia Assessment	arxiv 2026-06-17	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.59	Learning Robust Pair Confidence for Multimodal Emotion-Cause Pair Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Self-Supervised Mask-Aware Transformers for Fault-Tolerant FBG Force Sensing in Minimally Invasive Surgical Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.59	Mutation and crossover of simplicial complexes	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	An effective field theory approach to the sign problem in BFSS	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy/Compute	86%
0.59	Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.59	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	This market resolves to whatever the comments convince me to resolve it to(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-18	239_021 Money will stop being relevant at some point Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	35%
0.59	Residual-Space Evolutionary Optimization via Flow-based Generative Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_049 AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Software	56%
0.59	Toten: Knowledge-Based Ontological Tokenization Of Physical Quantities And Technical Notation In Brazilian Portuguese	arxiv 2026-06-17	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Flow Map Denoisers: Traversing the Distortion-Perception Plane for Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	GB-LSR: A Fast Local Spectral Image Representation with a Single Global Bandwidth for Continuous Reconstruction and Super-Resolution	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	GB-LSR: A Fast Local Spectral Image Representation with a Single Global Bandwidth for Continuous Reconstruction and Super-Resolution	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Segment-Level Mandarin Chinese Speech-Based Cognitive Impairment Detection via an Autoencoder with Contrastive Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Route-Constrained Robust Fusion Estimation for MEMS/GNSS Integrated Navigation of Unmanned Ground Vehicles in GNSS Degraded Environments	arxiv 2026-06-18	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.59	Many-body chirality of topological stabilizer states	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	String dynamics of a (2+1)D U(1) quantum link model on a digital quantum computer	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.59	Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	How many deaths will be reported as directly linked to South Africa’s 30 June 2026 anti-immigration shutdown/protests?	manifold 2026-06-20	236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Will I stay in masters conditional on Starmer not being out before July?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-19	231_036 Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. Peter Diamandis	Space	51%
0.59	FDA ANDA077494: RISPERIDONE (RISPERIDONE) — PH HEALTH	fda 2026-06-08	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA NDA208434: ALECENSA (ALECTINIB HYDROCHLORIDE) — HOFFMANN-LA ROCHE	fda 2026-06-11	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	FDA BLA761262: SKYRIZI (RISANKIZUMAB-RZAA) — ABBVIE INC	fda 2026-06-12	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.59	France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.59	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Spread: England (-1.5)(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Spread: Norway (-2.5)(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Will Giancarlo Stanton have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will the Whalesayer Coinflip trigger an unspecified trigger condition?(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-22	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.59	Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.59	Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Meta's prediction platform PROP BETS.	manifold 2026-06-23	242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Will somebody managram me at least 1500 mana before market close?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-06-23	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.59	PsyBridge: A Hybrid Intelligent Framework for Multi-Dimensional Mental Health Assessment and Decision Support	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.59	Attention-Spectrum Regularization for Replay-Free Continual Multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	DBT-Bleed: Dual-Branch Temporal Modeling with Key-Frame Selection for Surgical Bleeding Detection	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	DBT-Bleed: Dual-Branch Temporal Modeling with Key-Frame Selection for Surgical Bleeding Detection	arxiv 2026-06-22	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.59	Foundation Models for Epileptogenic Zone Identification in Drug-Resistant Epilepsy	arxiv 2026-06-21	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.59	Weighted Score-Oriented Losses for Temporally Localized Event Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	PG-MAP: Joint MAP Optimization for Inference-Time Alignment of Diffusion and Flow-Matching Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Learning-Augmented Algorithms for Online Vertex Cover	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Randomized YaRN Improves Length Generalization for Long-Context Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-22	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.59	Randomized YaRN Improves Length Generalization for Long-Context Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-22	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.59	Do LLM Embedding Spaces Recover Expert Structure?	arxiv 2026-06-22	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.59	Self-Stigma Is Not a Monolith, but Generic Empathy Is: Persona-Conditioned LLM Support for People Who Use Drugs	arxiv 2026-06-22	231_020 Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). Dave Blundin	Consumer	50%
0.59	Self-Stigma Is Not a Monolith, but Generic Empathy Is: Persona-Conditioned LLM Support for People Who Use Drugs	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Machine Translation and Post-Editing: Comparative Evaluation of Different MT Systems and Post-Editor Groups in Specialised Translation	arxiv 2026-06-22	245_025 Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	80%
0.59	Multi-AUV Marine Life Tracking with Single Hydrophone Payloads via a Hidden Markov Model Equipped Particle Filter	arxiv 2026-06-21	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	52%
0.59	Geometric Reconstruction of Extrinsic Contact Trajectories using Tactile Sensing and Proprioception for Tool Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-20	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.59	FDA ANDA203823: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — LANNETT CO INC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA ANDA204246: FYREMADEL (GANIRELIX ACETATE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-06-16	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	facebookresearch/tensor-layouts v0.2.0	github_release 2026-04-06	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.59	Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.59	Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Beyond U-Net: A Latent-Representation-Aligned Skip-Free Backbone for Flow-Matching Speech Enhancement	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Evaluating the Interpretability of Sparse Autoencoders with Concept Annotations	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	video-SALMONN-R$^3$: Learning to ReWatch, ReAsk, and ReAnswer for Efficient Video Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-23	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.59	CompressKV: Semantic-Retrieval-Guided KV-Cache Compression for Resource-Efficient Long-Context LLM Inference	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.59	JupOtter: Cell-Level Bug Detection in Jupyter Notebooks	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	PROTECT-90: A Fault Dataset for Power System Protection	arxiv 2026-06-23	TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	—	35%