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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.61	Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	FDA BLA761262: SKYRIZI (RISANKIZUMAB-RZAA) — ABBVIE INC	fda 2026-06-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 84%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will England win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will England win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will England win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.61	New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will US CPI inflation (12-month) for June 2026 be 4.5% or higher?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-21	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.61	Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Spread: Norway (-1.5)(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.61	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Manifold Markets 7-day average of Daily Active Users will be at least 29,000 by January 29, 2029 (1/29/29).(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-22	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.61	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" earn more than $230M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening we(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-06-22	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.61	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.61	Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.61	Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	PsyBridge: A Hybrid Intelligent Framework for Multi-Dimensional Mental Health Assessment and Decision Support	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	SQLConductor: Search-to-Policy Learning for Step-wise Text-to-SQL Orchestration	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	SQLConductor: Search-to-Policy Learning for Step-wise Text-to-SQL Orchestration	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Measuring & Mitigating Over-Alignment for LLMs in Multilingual Criminal Law Courts	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Rethinking Molecular Graph Backdoors under Chemistry-aware Admission	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Attention-Spectrum Regularization for Replay-Free Continual Multimodal LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Some Results about the Expressivity of Preference-Incomplete Structured Argumentation Frameworks	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Bagpiper-TTS: Natural Language Guided Universal Speech Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Safety-Aware Evaluation of LLM-Generated Driver Intervention Messages through Multi-Task Risk Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-21	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Concept-Constrained Prompt Learning for Few-Shot CLIP Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-21	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.61	Training-Free Semantic Correction for Autoregressive Visual Models	arxiv 2026-06-21	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Not All Claims Are Equally Risky: FACTOR for Adaptive Verification in Factual Long-Form Generation	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Dynamic estimation of slowly varying sequences	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Diffusion Models Adapt to Low-Dimensional Structure Under Flexible Coefficient Choices	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61	Quantifying the Agreement Between Data-Influence and Data-Similarity to Understand LLM Behavior	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Time Series Classification through Diffeomorphic Time Warping (DiffTW)	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Do Location Encoders Capture Spatial Effects? A GeoShapley Benchmark Across Scales	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Deep learning-based detection of cessation of breathing in pre-term infants	arxiv 2026-06-22	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.61	Bridge the Gaps: Heterogeneous Attributed Graph Clustering via Quaternion Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	PeLAP-A: Adaptive Latent Pruning for Lightweight Latent Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	From Point Estimates to Distributions: GMM Pooling for MIL in Preterm Birth Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-22	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.61	GRAIN: Group Aggregation via Min-Norm Objective	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	Chains That See, Answers That Don't: A Multi-Aspect Evaluation Recipe for Forced Chain-of-Thought on Video-MME	arxiv 2026-06-22	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.61	From Complaint Narratives to Monetary Relief: A Hybrid Machine Learning Framework for CFPB Consumer Complaints	arxiv 2026-06-21	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	Federated learning with heavy-tailed gradient noise and communication noise: a variance-reduction based algorithm	arxiv 2026-06-21	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.61	Adaptive Recurrent Message Passing for Test Time Computing on Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Synthesizing the Lombard Effect: Multi-Level Control of Speech Clarity and Vocal Effort in TTS	arxiv 2026-06-22	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.61	Does the Same Token Mean the Same State? MoE Routing as Signal for Reasoning Control	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.61	HAKARI-Bench: A Lightweight Benchmark for Comparing Retrieval Architectures and Efficiency Settings under Unified Conditions	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	First-Token Broadcasters: Mechanistic Origins of Language Identity and Distributed Robustness in Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	DSWIM:Efficient and Stable Deterministic Computation of Warm Inflation Perturbations	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.61	FDA ANDA208815: ELTROMBOPAG OLAMINE (ELTROMBOPAG OLAMINE) — ACTAVIS LABS FL	fda 2026-06-17	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	facebookresearch/tensor-layouts v0.3.2	github_release 2026-05-15	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.61	Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Props about Meta's Prediction Markets ("Arena")	manifold 2026-06-23	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.61	When will Google Release Gemma 5	manifold 2026-06-23	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.61	FLUX3D: High-Fidelity 3D Gaussian Generation with Diffusion-Aligned Sparse Representation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Task Decomposition for Efficient Annotation	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	TACTFUL: Tactile-Driven Exploration For Object Localization and Identification in Confined Environments	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	FlowPipe: LLM-Enhanced Conditional Generative Flow Networks for Data Preparation Pipeline Construction	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Uncertainty-Aware Longitudinal Forecasting of Alzheimer's Disease Progression Using Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.61	AdversaBench: Automated LLM Red-Teaming with Multi-Judge Confirmation and Cross-Model Transferability	arxiv 2026-06-23	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.61	Towards Federated Long-Tailed Graph Learning: An Energy-Guided Dual Decoupling Approach	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Fast and Slow Variational Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.61	Towards Spec Learning: Inference-Time Alignment from Preference Pairs	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	An Agnostic Machine Learning Model of Photosynthetic Habitability	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_030 Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... Jensen Huang	Space	33%
0.61	RE4: Transformation-aware Imitation of Object Interactions Using Manipulation Modes	arxiv 2026-06-23	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Deep numerical schemes for systems of Ergodic BSDEs with applications to regime-switching forward utilities	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Uniform Sampling from High-dimensional Spectral Norm Balls	arxiv 2026-06-23	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	FedUP: One-Shot Federated Unlearning via Centroid-Guided Plug-in Filters	arxiv 2026-06-23	234_003 Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.61	FedUP: One-Shot Federated Unlearning via Centroid-Guided Plug-in Filters	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Federated Survival Analysis in Healthcare: A Multi-Model Evaluation on Cross-Institutional Heterogeneous Breast Cancer Data	arxiv 2026-06-22	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	The Warrant Gap: Claim-Conditioned Re-scoring for Fact-Checking	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.61	From Open Waters to Enclosed Cabins: ProteusVPR for Cross-Scene Visual Place Recognition in Maritime Perception and Cabin Inspection	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	More on Kashaev limits of the quantum $A$-polynomials	arxiv 2026-06-23	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	FDA ANDA206822: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — PHARM ASSOC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Spread: United States (-1.5)(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.61	AutoRelAnnotator: Calibrated Model Cascades for Cost-Efficient Relevance Evaluation in Sponsored Search	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	AutoRelAnnotator: Calibrated Model Cascades for Cost-Efficient Relevance Evaluation in Sponsored Search	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.61	Color Matters: Trigger Color Affects Success in Federated Backdoor Attacks	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.61	EchoStyle: Unlocking High-Fidelity Video Stylization with Reverse Data Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Interpretable Concept-Guided Polynomial Tabular Kolmogorov-Arnold Network for EEG-Based Mild Cognitive Impairment Detection	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	Neural Machine Translation for Low-Resource Tangkhul--English	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	ESTANet: Efficient Online Error Detection in Procedural Videos via Prediction Inconsistency	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.61	Benchmarking the Alignment of Data-Quality Metrics, Human Judgment and Land-Cover Segmentation Performance for Earth Observation	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	Yuvion VL: A Multimodal Foundation Model for Adversarial Content and AI Safety	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.61	FlowPipe: LLM-Enhanced Conditional Generative Flow Networks for Data Preparation Pipeline Construction	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.61	Re-mixing Embeddings for Patient Augmentation in Data Scarce Multiple Instance Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.61	Learning Subset-Shared Invariances for Domain Generalization with Mixture-of-Experts	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.61	Two-dimensional Hyperbolic RNN Neural Quantum State	arxiv 2026-06-24	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.61	Bias-Controlled Primal-Dual Natural Actor-Critic: Optimal Rates for Constrained Multi-Objective Average-Reward RL	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	TRACER: Training-Free Closed-Loop Structured Inference for Traffic Accident Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-23	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	The Tatoxa System for Text Detoxification in Low-Resource Languages: The Case of Tatar	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.61	Efficient and Trainable Language Model Test-Time Scaling via Local Branch Routing	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.61	Automatic Generation of Highlights for Academic Paper Via Prompt-based Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.61	RoboAtlas: Contextual Active SLAM	arxiv 2026-06-24	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	1000 Rallies: An Event-Camera Dataset and Real-Time Learned Ball-State Estimation for Robotic Table Tennis	arxiv 2026-06-24	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	Swazure: Swarm Measurement of Pose for Flying Light Specks	arxiv 2026-06-23	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.61	Wear-Clearance-Impact Coupling in the Jansen Linkage: A Gait-Durability-Optimized Design Slows Joint Loosening	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.61	Supersymmetry at BLTP: Recent Progress	arxiv 2026-06-23	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.61	Supersymmetry at BLTP: Recent Progress	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	FDA ANDA209655: FENTANYL-100 (FENTANYL) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Will Beşiktaş Gain win Turkey BSL?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will Panama vs. England end in a draw?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Spain leading at halftime?(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.61	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.61	Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Data-Free Reservoir Features for Efficient Long-Horizon Cold-Start Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.61	Data-Free Reservoir Features for Efficient Long-Horizon Cold-Start Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Decision-Aligned Evaluation of Uncertainty Quantification	arxiv 2026-06-25	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	NebulaExp-8B: An Empirical Post-Training Pipeline via Full-Scale Ablation Research	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	Zero-Shot Size Transfer for Neural ODEs on Sparse Random Graphs: Graphon Limits and Adjoint Convergence	arxiv 2026-06-25	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Discovering Millions of Interpretable Features with Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	PMDformer: Patch-Mean Decoupling Information Transformer for Long-term Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-25	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.61	Speaking Numbers to LLMs: Multi-Wavelet Number Embeddings for Time Series Forecasting	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.61	Estimating Uncertainty in Classifier Performance with Applications to Large Language Models and Nested Data	arxiv 2026-06-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Geometry-Aware MCTS for Extremal Problems in Combinatorial Geometry	arxiv 2026-06-24	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.61	Lacuna: A Research Map for Machine Learning	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.61	The Geometry of Updates: Fisher Alignment at Vocabulary Scale	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.61	Symplectic Neural Networks for learning Generalized Hamiltonians	arxiv 2026-06-25	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.61	Clue-Guided Money Laundering Group Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.61	Multilingual Reasoning Cascades Need More Context	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.61	Syntactic Belief Update as the Driver of Garden Path Processing Difficulty	arxiv 2026-06-25	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.61	FBK's Long-form SpeechLLMs for IWSLT 2026 Instruction Following	arxiv 2026-06-25	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.61	RobOralScan: Learning Active Intraoral Scanning for Robotic Dental Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-25	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.61	A Closed-Form 4-DoF Inter-Robot Pose Estimator using Bearing-only Measurements	arxiv 2026-06-25	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.61	facebookresearch/SONAR v0.4.0	github_release 2025-03-17	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	facebookresearch/SONAR v0.4.0	github_release 2025-03-17	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.61	Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5(market prob: 77%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Spread: Argentina (-3.5)(market prob: 25%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	France vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.61	Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS) (CIK 0001821769)	edgar_8k 2026-06-26	SEM_020 Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis)	Semis	74%
0.61	FDA ANDA206456: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — PHARMOBEDIENT	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.61	FDA ANDA206470: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ACTAVIS LABS FL INC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.61	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.61	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-10	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.61	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-11-25	229_026 By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.61	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-07-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.61	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-02	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.61	Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.61	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-02-16	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.61	Goog 380 by end of week?(market prob: 55%)	manifold 2026-04-29	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	What percentage uptime will the Unofficial GitHub Status Page show for the last 90 Days on May 31st, 2026?	manifold 2026-04-29	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.61	Will "LessWrong Shows You Social Signals Before the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-28	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.61	Will Labour announce a leadership election before [date]	manifold 2026-04-27	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.61	In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]	manifold 2026-04-27	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.61	If there is an EAGxNordics 2027, where will it take place in?	manifold 2026-04-25	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.61	Will Liam mention female ‘tortas’ between April 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM and April 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM?(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-04-25	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.61	Which of these will I achieve?	manifold 2026-04-24	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.61	Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-23	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	246_010 SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	43%
0.61	roth tipping point why 86 135102407.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	article70923057.ece	gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.61	used spacex rocket could crash into the moons einstein crater this summer report predicts	gdelt 2026-04-30	SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley	Space	60%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_033 Technology conglomerates have mobilized unprecedented political capital to ensure AI-friendly regulation: Meta committed $65M to super PACs ('Forge the Future Project', 'Making Our Tomorrow'); a16z backed the $50M 'Leading the Future' PAC — combined $1... Meta / a16z (Andreessen, Horowitz)	Geopolitics	62%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.61		gdelt 2026-04-30	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.61	vig vs hdv growing income 155000719.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	238_051 If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.61	984371 robot dogs elon musk jeff bezos heads viral	gdelt 2026-04-30	240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	24%
0.61	Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.61	Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.61	Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.61	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.61	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.61	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 62%)	manifold 2026-05-01	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.61	Will US average gas price reach $4.500 in May 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-01	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.61	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.61	Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.61	Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.61	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 845(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-02	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.61	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 845(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-02	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.61	will i qualify for arml tiebreaker 2026?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-04-27	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%