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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	FDA NDA217379: CAVHANZA (NILOTINIB) — FLEX PHARMA	fda 2026-05-29	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	248_015 Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	50%
0.59	Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will I increase the number of pull ups I can do by 50%+ by 25th June?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-04	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.59	Silver price above 90.000 in June 2026(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-04	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	61%
0.59	Will this market receive over 67 unique traders before July 1?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	During Manifest @marysmith will...	manifold 2026-06-04	240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.59	Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	O/U 1.5 Rounds(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.59	Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-05	239_003 We are currently in AI hard takeoff Elon Musk	AI	47%
0.59	Deep Learning-based 3D Oral Cavity Reconstruction Using 2D Intraoral Images	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Emotion-Aware Image Generation from Korean Diary Text via LLM-based Prompt Translation and LoRA Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.59	UNIVID: Unified Vision-Language Model for Video Moderation	arxiv 2026-06-04	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.59	UNIVID: Unified Vision-Language Model for Video Moderation	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.59	Answer Presence Drives RAG Rewriting Gains	arxiv 2026-06-04	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	A Vision-language Framework for Comparative Reasoning in Radiology	arxiv 2026-06-04	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	Tracing the Oracle: Improving Diffusion Timestep Scheduling for 3D CT Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.59	Video-Rate Streaming Stylization on a Vision-Aware MLLM-Conditioned Edit Diffusion: Asymmetric Batched Inference on a Distilled UNet + MLLM Text Encoder	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	TS-ICL: A Flexible Time-Indexed Foundation Model for Time Series via In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.59	BreastGPT: A Multimodal Large Language Model for the Full Spectrum of Breast Cancer Clinical Routine	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	Attitude-Aided Linear Calibration of Triaxial Accelerometers	arxiv 2026-06-04	COD_SPC_007 NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist Codex Research Pack	Space	43%
0.59	Attitude-Aided Linear Calibration of Triaxial Accelerometers	arxiv 2026-06-04	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.59	Uncertainty-Aware Adaptive Sensor Fusion for Autonomous Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-03	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Best gif competition : Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 416(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-06	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.59	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Pokemon Mega Ev Ascended Heroes: Will we unpack a card worth >$8.99 raw at Manifest (2 packs) [+Prizes](market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-07	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.59	The King's Gauntlet winner? (Hera's AoE2 streamer invitational)	manifold 2026-06-07	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.59	Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TST?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-06	243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	41%
0.59	What will Xinyuan Zhou make?	manifold 2026-06-07	229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.59	facebookresearch/detectron2 v0.2.1	github_release 2020-08-04	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.59	Graph Neural Network leveraging Higher-order Class Label Connectivity for Heterophilous Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	A Temporal Spatial Minimax Rate for Smoothly-Varying Distributions in Wasserstein Space	arxiv 2026-06-05	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Acoustic Cue Alignment in Audio Language Models for Speech Emotion Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	REMEDI: A Benchmark for Retention and Unlearning Evaluation in Multi-label Clinical Disease Inference	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.59	dots.tts Technical Report	arxiv 2026-06-05	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.59	Bradley-Terry Rankings for Recommender Systems Across Dataset Taxonomies	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Making the Most of Limited Data: Score-Aware Training for Text-to-Music Generation	arxiv 2026-06-05	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.59	TabSwift: An Efficient Tabular Foundation Model with Row-Wise Attention	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Deep Single-Index Fréchet Regression	arxiv 2026-06-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Deep Single-Index Fréchet Regression	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Learning Perspectivist Social Meaning via Demographic-Conditioned Fusion Embeddings	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Style or Content? Evaluating Style Classifiers with Controlled Content Overlap	arxiv 2026-06-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Wick-connected theories and Lorentz violation	arxiv 2026-06-05	238_050 Sci-fi tropes (warp drive, teleportation, time travel) are not yet achieved; replicator/holodeck close Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	41%
0.59	From (Hidden) Symmetries to Stealth Solutions	arxiv 2026-06-05	231_047 Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.59	Spread: Knicks (-3.5)(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-01-06	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 93%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will i be banned from Manifold for market manipulation and/or fixing markets before the end of the year?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-08	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.59	Graph2Idea:Retrieval-Augmented Scientific Idea Generation with Graph-Structured Contexts	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Algorithm for Contextual Queueing Bandits with Rate-Optimal Queue Length Regret	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Thresholded Local Hyper-Flow Diffusion	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_059 Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. Alex Finn	AI	56%
0.59	PRISM: Topology-Aware Cross-Modal Imputation for Modality-Deficient Federated Graph Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	243_030 Multimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robots Dara Khosrowshahi	Robotics	31%
0.59	Asymptotic Optimality of Thompson Sampling for Risk-Averse Bandits with Sub-Gaussian Rewards	arxiv 2026-06-08	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.59	PROBE-Web: An Interactive System for Probing Evaluation Landscapes of Knowledge Graph Completion Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.59	Learning to Solve Generative ODEs Beyond the Linear Span	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	OrderDP: A Theoretically Guaranteed Lossless Dynamic Data Pruning Framework	arxiv 2026-06-07	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.59	Language-Aware Token Boosting: LLM Language Confusion Reduction Without Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-08	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.59	Multilingual Sentiment Aware Text Summarization A Reinforcement Learning Approach for Consistency Maintenance	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Multilingual Fact-Checking at Scale: Fine-Tuned Compact Models vs LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-07	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	Einstein-de Haas effect and induced rotation in an evolving magnetized QCD matter	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Spread: Mexico (-1.5)(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Data assimilation for subsurface flow using latent diffusion model parameterization: performance of ensemble-Kalman and Monte Carlo techniques	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Pose-ICL: 3D-Aware In-Context Learning for Pose-Controllable Subject Customization	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	A Unified Siamese Learning Framework for Zero-Day Anomaly Detection and Classification in Optical Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	LC-QAT: Data-Efficient 2-Bit QAT for LLMs via Linear-Constrained Vector Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Instruction Finetuning DeepSeek-R1-8B Model Using LoRA and NEFTune	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Towards Robust Arabic Speech Emotion Recognition with Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-09	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	Linguistically Augmented Audio Speech Data (LinguAS)	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.59	MMClima: A Framework for Multimodal Climate Science Data and Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-08	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Robust Regression of General ReLUs with Queries	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Data-Driven Runway and Taxiway Exits Prediction of Landing Aircraft: A Case Study at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport	arxiv 2026-06-09	SPC_015 AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... Andrej Karpathy	Space	72%
0.59	PhysMetrics.Weather: An Evaluation Framework for Physical Consistency in ML Weather Models	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.59	Revisiting Positive Samples in Graph Contrastive Learning: From the Perspective of Message Passing	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Interpreting and Steering a Text-to-Speech Language Model with Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	ConvMemory v2: A Recall-Preserving Top-10 Evidence Reranker for Conversational Memory Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.59	Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	39%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	2026 NBA Finals G5-7 prop bets	manifold 2026-06-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will there be widespread fuel shortages in Moscow city before 1 December 2026?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-06-11	SPC_010 Establishment of a self-sustaining city on Mars populated by 1 million people by the year 2050 — despite logistical delays and the lunar detour, Musk maintains this ultimate target. Elon Musk	Space	17%
0.59	Will the Sunshine Protection Act or permanent DST become law by August 28, 2028 (8/28/28)?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-11	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.59	AMAZON COM INC (AMZN) (CIK 0001018724)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	240_055 Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	Tabular Foundation Models for Clinical Survival Analysis via Survival-Aware Adaptation	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	TextHOI-3D: Text-to-3D Hand-Object Interaction via Discrete Multi-View Generation and Joint Mesh Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	From Prompts to Tokens: Internalizing Causal Supervision in Vision-Language Model for Multi-Image Causal Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	A Riemannian Approach to Low-Rank Optimal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Renewable Lasso without Batch-Number Constraints: A Gradient-Enhanced Approach	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.59	SpAArSIST: Sparsified AASIST for Efficient and Reliable Anti-Spoofing	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	GLACIER: A Multimodal Student-Teacher Foundation Model for Molecular Property Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Detecting Sensitive Personal Information in Japanese Pre-Training Corpora for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-10	232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz	Geopolitics	44%
0.59	Context-Aware Multimodal Claim Verification in Spoken Dialogues	arxiv 2026-06-09	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.59	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_data_omat-0.1.0	github_release 2025-10-13	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.59	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.6.0	github_release 2025-09-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will "PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-12	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.59	Free Lottery (Planck satellite)(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-06-12	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	AMAZON COM INC (AMZN) (CIK 0001018724)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	240_055 Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.59	Measurement-Calibrated Multi-Camera Fusion for Vision-Based Indoor Localization	arxiv 2026-06-11	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.59	Rethinking RAG in Long Videos: What to Retrieve and How to Use It?	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Rethinking RAG in Long Videos: What to Retrieve and How to Use It?	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	JSCGC: Joint Source-Channel-Generation Coding for Wireless Generative Communications	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	DIMOS: Disentangling Instance-level Moving Object Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-11	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.59	Simultaneous Latent Budget Trees for Stratified Classification	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Computationally tractable robust differentially private mean estimation	arxiv 2026-06-10	231_021 Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. Peter Diamandis	Consumer	59%
0.59	PiDA: Phonetically-Informed Data Augmentation for Robust Vietnamese Speech Translation	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Sparse2Act: Learning Action-Aligned Sparse 3D Representations for Cross-Domain Robot Manipulation	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_038 Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock). Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	23%
0.59	Beyond the Metric: Geometrical Measurability as a Constraint on Quantum Gravity	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.59	Spread: Scotland (-1.5)(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Spread: Scotland (-1.5)(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 88%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.59	Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	FDA BLA761306: EBGLYSS (LEBRIKIZUMAB-LBKZ) — ELI LILLY AND CO	fda 2026-06-09	235_031 Eli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	39%
0.59	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.6.0	github_release 2018-09-26	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.59	Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-29	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Microsoft close or divest itself of Rare in 2026?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-15	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner concede 5 or fewer total goals throughout the tournament?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.59	Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Tereza Valentova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Argentina leading at halftime?(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	From Affect Prediction to Affect Forecasting: Evidence for Distinct Information Sources in Longitudinal Text	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.59	Model Graph Inductive Learning for Knowledge Graph Completion	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Semi-Supervised Speech Confidence Detection using Pseudo-Labelling and Whisper Embeddings	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Scalable and Interpretable Representation Alignment with Ordinal Similarity	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Active Learning with Low-Rank Structure for Data Selection	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Weaving Multi-Source Evidence for Biomedical Reasoning: The BioMedHop Benchmark and BioWeave Framework	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Weaving Multi-Source Evidence for Biomedical Reasoning: The BioMedHop Benchmark and BioWeave Framework	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	Extending Item Response Theory for Efficient and Meaningful Multilingual Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	R2RDreamer: 3D-aware Data Augmentation for Spatially-generalized 2D Manipulation Policies	arxiv 2026-06-15	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.59	Decoupled Object-Centric Video Understanding for Generating Robotic Manipulation Commands	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	The Optimal Rate Function in Covariant Quantum State Tomography	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.59	Determining the Spin Density Matrix via Its Rank and Probing the Quantum Entanglement and Bell Non-Locality at the Lepton Colliders	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.59	Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?(market prob: 20%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Spread: Ghana (-2.5)(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will silver hit $75/oz this week by close of market on Friday?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-16	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	Human-in-the-Loop Atlas-Based 3D Asset Segmentation for Interactive Content Workflows	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_021 Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... Marc Andreessen	AI	52%
0.59	Feynman Kac Reweighted Schrödinger Bridge Matching for Surface-Based Tau PET Harmonization	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	Bridging Spatial And Frequency Views For Disaster Assessment: Benefits And Limitations	arxiv 2026-06-16	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.59	Rethinking Dataset Distillation for Classification: Do Distilled Sets Outperform Coresets?	arxiv 2026-06-16	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.59	Geometrical fairness in graph neural networks	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Reducing Learner Redundancy in Boosting via Residual Orthogonalization	arxiv 2026-06-16	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.59	Improving low-resource ASR using bilingual fine-tuning with language identification: a cross-linguistic evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Pushing the Primordial Frontier: Exact Linear Solutions in Multifield Inflation	arxiv 2026-06-16	236_034 Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Effective-metric formulation of Casimir energies in nonlinear scalar and electromagnetic theories	arxiv 2026-06-15	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Will Carlos Correa lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Fernando Tatis Jr. lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Fernando Tatis Jr. lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? (market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket](market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-06-18	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.59	Serve Robotics Inc. /DE/ (SERV) (CIK 0001832483)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.59	Beyond Tokenization: Direct Timestep Embedding and Contrastive Alignment for Time-Series Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-17	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	Augmenting Dysarthric Speech Severity Assessment with MOS Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.59	Complementary Attention Head Pruning for Efficient Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	INDEQS: Informed Neural controlled Differential EQuationS	arxiv 2026-06-17	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.59	Where Will They Go? Modelling Multimodal Pedestrian Manoeuvres from Ego-centric Videos	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Online Distributional Prediction via Latent Cluster Geometry Under Drift and Corruption	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.59	Beyond AHI: An Interpretable Causal-Discovery-Guided Framework for Sleep Recovery in Connected Health	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Signature filtering: a lightweight enhancement for statistical watermark detection in large language models	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.59	MOLAR: Learning Multimodal Molecular Representations from Noisy Labels	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Which Sections of a Research Paper Best Reveal Its Research Methods? Evidence from Library and Information Science	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.59	SAMA: Semantic Anchor-aligned Augmentation for Unified Low-Resource Multimodal Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	RegMix-D: Dynamic Data Mixing via Proxy Training Trajectories	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	PragReST: Self-Reinforcing Counterfactual Reasoning for Pragmatic Language Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	MCompassRAG: Topic Metadata as a Semantic Compass for Paragraph-Level Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Zero-Shot Long-Horizon Dexterous Manipulation via Multi-View 3D-Grounded VLM Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	facebookresearch/ProgramBench v1.1.0	github_release 2026-06-18	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy/Compute	86%
0.59	Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%