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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-01-13	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-08	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.59	Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-06-04	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	Which country will win the 2026 Chess Olympiad (Women's event)?	manifold 2026-06-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in June 2026?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-06-04	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	Atkore Inc. (ATKR) (CIK 0001666138)	edgar_8k 2026-06-04	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.59	huggingface/transformers v5.10.2	github_release 2026-06-04	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.59	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-05	236_023 AI will replace white-collar jobs: 20-50% of 70M US office workers in 12-18 months Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.59	Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-05	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	LatentWave: JEPA Pretraining for Wireless Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Learning What to Forget: Improving LLM Unlearning via Learned Token-Level Importance	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Learning What to Forget: Improving LLM Unlearning via Learned Token-Level Importance	arxiv 2026-06-04	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Plug-and-Play Guidance for Discrete Diffusion Models via Gradient-Informed Logit Correction	arxiv 2026-06-04	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.59	Your GFlowNet Secretly Learns an Optimal Transport Plan	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	Deep Learning-based 3D Oral Cavity Reconstruction Using 2D Intraoral Images	arxiv 2026-06-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Reducing Hallucinations in Complex Question Answering using Simple Graph-based Retrieval-Augmented Generation (long version)	arxiv 2026-06-04	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Mechanistic Insights into Functional Sparsity in Multimodal LLMs via CoRe Heads	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	InfoShield: Privacy-Preserving Speech Representations for Mental Health Screening via Information-Theoretic Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	TailLoR: Protecting Principal Components in Parameter-Efficient Continual Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	EML-CD: Causal Mechanism Recovery via EML Symbolic Trees in Structure Learning	arxiv 2026-06-04	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.59	Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks for Counterfactual Outcome Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Q-GNN: Query-Conditioned Graph Neural Networks with Type Awareness for Knowledge Graph Completion	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	PJ-RoPE: A Fourier-Jet-Affine Position Space for Relative Attention	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.59	PJ-RoPE: A Fourier-Jet-Affine Position Space for Relative Attention	arxiv 2026-06-03	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	An Open-Source Two-Stage Computer Vision Pipeline for Fine-Grained Vehicle Classification using Vision Transformers	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Revisiting Lexicon Evaluation in Unsupervised Word Discovery	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	MemoryCard: Topic-Aware Multi-Modal Clue Compression for Long-Video Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-04	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.59	Interpreting Style Representations via Style-Eliciting Prompts	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	In-Context Graphical Inference	arxiv 2026-06-03	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	SemBlock: Semantic Boundary Dynamic Blocks for Diffusion LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-03	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.59	SoftPINCH: EMG-Driven Soft Exoskeleton Assistance for Finger Flexion and Grasping	arxiv 2026-06-03	CMQ_050 Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. Industry analysts (synthesis)	Robotics	41%
0.59	Diffusion of multiple conserved charges from entropy production	arxiv 2026-06-04	241_024 Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed Eric Schmidt	Space	54%
0.59	Understanding deconfined quantum critical points from crystalline categorical Landau paradigm	arxiv 2026-06-04	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.59	Emergent Closed Universes in Symmetric Orbifold CFTs	arxiv 2026-06-03	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	FDA BLA761309: COLUMVI (GLOFITAMAB-GXBM) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-05-28	IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang	Biotech/Longevity	68%
0.59	Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #4 Group D(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.59	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?(market prob: 58%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.59	Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	FIFA World Cup (2026) Team Goals	manifold 2026-06-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	What will be the sum of my AP scores releasing this July?	manifold 2026-06-06	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-07	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.59	Acoustic Cue Alignment in Audio Language Models for Speech Emotion Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-05	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	dots.tts Technical Report	arxiv 2026-06-05	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	Never Seen Before: Benchmarking Genuine Zero-Shot Composed Image Retrieval with Consistent Video-Sourced Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Video-Based Prediction of In-Flight Particle Characteristics in Atmospheric Plasma Spraying	arxiv 2026-06-05	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.59	Structure-Preserving Correction Learning for Sparse Bayesian Inference in Brain Source Imaging	arxiv 2026-06-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Compliance-Based Sensor Placement for Force Sensing on a Sensorized Prostate Phantom	arxiv 2026-06-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	facebookresearch/maskrcnn-benchmark v0.1	github_release 2019-09-10	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.59	Will Nicolai Højgaard win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Peru vs. Spain end in a draw?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	What will appear in the June 9, 2026 Nintendo Direct?	manifold 2026-06-08	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.59	FDA NDA021529: IMPLANON (ETONOGESTREL) — ORGANON	fda 2026-05-28	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	Bayesian Selective Latent Inference for Wastewater-First Influenza Monitoring	arxiv 2026-06-08	IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.59	A Universal Dense Football Event Representation Based on TabTransformer	arxiv 2026-06-08	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	TLDR: Compressing Audio Tokens for Efficient Autoregressive Text-to-Speech	arxiv 2026-06-08	AI_003 AI-native companies are currently compressing what traditionally took a decade to reach $100 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) into just 12-24 months — an unprecedented monetization velocity. Dario Amodei	Macro/Economy	52%
0.59	PolyBuild: An End-to-End Method for Polygonal Building Contour Extraction from High-Resolution Remote Sensing Images	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Efficient Traffic Prediction at Scale: A Systematic Study of STGCN Architectural Depth	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Zero-Shot Semantic Re-Identification for Autonomous Driving: A VLM Baseline Study	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	47%
0.59	Neural Legendre-Fenchel transform with Hessian Preconditioning	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Data augmented bootstrap: Unifying confidence interval construction by approximate invariance	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.59	Estimate Collapsibility of Causal Effects in Completed Partial DAGs via Strong d-Convex Hulls	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Continuous Language Diffusion as a Decoder-Interface Problem	arxiv 2026-06-07	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.59	Multilingual Sentiment Aware Text Summarization A Reinforcement Learning Approach for Consistency Maintenance	arxiv 2026-06-08	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	The Amplifying Mirror: Locating and Steering the Partisan Direction inside a Large Language Model	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	ClinicalAligner26AM: A Cross-Lingual Aligner for Dataset Translation; Evidences from the MultiClinCorpus Shared Task	arxiv 2026-06-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Segment-level Tree Search for Long Meeting Document Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	VGP-Nav: Metric-Aware Visual Geometric Perception for Robot Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-08	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.59	Asymptotic Algebras and Holography of Information in CGHS Model	arxiv 2026-06-08	230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.59	Energy Transport in Randomly Coupled Quantum Systems: A Perturbative Approach	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.59	An elliptic approach to Reid's fantasy	arxiv 2026-06-07	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will silver hit $60/oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-10	AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.59	Will I resolve this as yes or no?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-10	232_058 Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.59	Optimizing 2D Input Representations and Sub-phase Fusion Strategies for Differential Diagnosis of Asthma and COPD Using CNN- and GRU-Based Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Optimizing 2D Input Representations and Sub-phase Fusion Strategies for Differential Diagnosis of Asthma and COPD Using CNN- and GRU-Based Networks	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	Improving Text-Instance Alignment Of Foreground Conditioned Out-Painting Via Customized Concept Embedding	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_017 Prompt engineering evolves into a specialized commerce vector — marketplaces (PromptBase-style) emerge where skilled practitioners sell highly optimized, reliable text descriptions; proving AI displaces execution but rewards precise instructional logic... David Holz	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.59	Using the YOLOv12 Model for Verifying the Correct Color Sequence of Wires in Network Cables (Patch Cords) on the Production Line	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.59	ERAlign: Energy-based Representation Alignment of GNNs and LLMs on Text-attributed Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Content-Induced Spatial-Spectral Aggregation Network for Change Detection in Remote Sensing Images	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Multi-Level Analyzation of Imbalance to Resolve Non-IID-Ness in Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_014 Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary models within multi-billion-dollar corporate data centers, but from globally distributed open-source models — open-weight parity with frontier systems enables any individual o... Emad Mostaque	AI	53%
0.59	Integral Field Unit Spectroscopy with One Fiber	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Robust Regression of General ReLUs with Queries	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	DMT: Demographic Conditioning, Morphology-Enhanced Transformer for Cuffless Blood Pressure Estimation from PPG Signals	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_027 Integration of AI with advanced bio-sensing, quantum computing, and genomics enables humanity to achieve 'Longevity Escape Velocity' — tipping point where medical technology extends human lifespan faster than time passes; continuous biological surveill... Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	21%
0.59	Generative Archetype-Grounded Item Representations for Sequential Recommendation	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	Data-Driven Runway and Taxiway Exits Prediction of Landing Aircraft: A Case Study at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport	arxiv 2026-06-09	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	Learning Doubly Sparse Explicitly Conditioned Transforms	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Express Language Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Express Language Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-09	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.59	Accelerating SAV-based optimization via randomized low-rank Hessian approximation	arxiv 2026-06-09	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Privacy-Preserving Credit Risk Prediction with Alternative Data	arxiv 2026-06-09	247_053 AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	38%
0.59	Trace Only What You Need: Structure-Aware On-Demand Hypergraph Memory for Long-Document Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-09	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	ConvMemory v2: A Recall-Preserving Top-10 Evidence Reranker for Conversational Memory Retrieval	arxiv 2026-06-09	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.59	Small Data, Big Noise: Adversarial Training for Robust Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Compiling Rewrite Rules to Finite-State Transducers with the Worsening Trick	arxiv 2026-06-08	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.59	The Scattering Algebra of Physical Space: Wigner-Covariance and Fields	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Bootstrap Cone of the Multicritical Deconfined Quantum Critical Point	arxiv 2026-06-08	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	FDA ANDA211187: MACITENTAN (MACITENTAN) — TEVA PHARMS USA INC	fda 2026-06-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA200296: RISEDRONATE SODIUM (RISEDRONATE SODIUM) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD	fda 2026-06-08	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.59	FDA ANDA219530: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — MACLEODS PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-06-03	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	FDA ANDA212990: LABETALOL HYDROCHLORIDE (LABETALOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community	AI	40%
0.59	Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) (CIK 0000018230)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.59	AMAZON COM INC (AMZN) (CIK 0001018724)	edgar_8k 2026-06-10	230_051 Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalized by capex). Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.59	Latent World Recovery for Multimodal Learning with Missing Modalities	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Multimodal Ordinal Modeling of Alzheimer's Disease Severity Using Structural MRI and Clinical Data	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.59	From Prompts to Tokens: Internalizing Causal Supervision in Vision-Language Model for Multi-Image Causal Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	ICA Lens: Interpreting Language Models Without Training Another Dictionary	arxiv 2026-06-10	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	Ouroboros-Spatial: Closing the Data-Model Loop for Spatial Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.59	Lung-R1: A Knowledge Graph-Guided LLM for Pulmonary Diagnostic Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	DeMix: Debugging Training Data with Mixed Data Error Types by Investigating Influence Vectors	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.59	Probabilistic Contrastive Pretraining for Multi-task ADME Property Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	OmniLoc: A Geometry-Aware Foundation Model for Anchor-Free UE Localization Across Diverse Indoor Environments	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	The Long Tail, Not the Front Page: Cold-Start Prediction of Crowd Highlight Salience	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	Point Cloud Segmentation for Autonomous Clip Positioning in Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy on a Phantom	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_008 By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). Brett Adcock	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	The Fundaments of Unity: ${\mathcal O}(1)$ Couplings in Quantum Field Theories	arxiv 2026-06-10	246_034 Thousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power law. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Non-self-dual nontopological soliton in a pure Chern-Simons gauge model	arxiv 2026-06-10	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.59	Will ThunderTalk Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-20	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will Sudarshan Yellamaraju win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-05-22	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.59	What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-12	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Free Mana Part 4:All Answers resolves to NO (You can add answers in numerical form)	manifold 2026-06-12	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Will "PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-12	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.59	GENERAC HOLDINGS INC. (GNRC) (CIK 0001474735)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.59	AMAZON COM INC (AMZN) (CIK 0001018724)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	230_051 Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalized by capex). Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.59	Learning to Reason by Analogy via Retrieval-Augmented Reinforcement Fine-Tuning	arxiv 2026-06-11	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	Transformer-Guided Graph Attention for Direct Cardiac Mesh Reconstruction: A Structural Digital Twin Framework	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.59	Emotional regulation improves deep learning-based image classification	arxiv 2026-06-11	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.59	AAbAAC: An Annotated Corpus for Autoimmunity Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	OCOO-T : A Simple and Scalable Virtual Cell Model for Transcriptional Perturbation Response Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-11	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Analyzing and Improving Fine-grained Preference Optimization in Medical LVLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.59	EDEN: A Large-Scale Corpus of Clinical Notes for Italian	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	A2D2: Fine-Tuning Any-Length Discrete Diffusion for Adaptive Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-11	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Uncertainty Estimation for Molecular Diffusion Models	arxiv 2026-06-11	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.59	Simultaneous Latent Budget Trees for Stratified Classification	arxiv 2026-06-11	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Extracting Governing Equations from Latent Dynamics via Multi-View Contrastive Learning	arxiv 2026-06-11	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Selecting Samples on Graphs: A Unified Dataset Pruning Framework for Lossless Training Acceleration	arxiv 2026-06-11	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Physics-Informed Neural Networks and Radial Basis Functions for PDEs with Dirac Delta Sources	arxiv 2026-06-10	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	The Tone of Awareness: Topic, Sentiment, and Toxicity Maps During Mental Health Month on TikTok	arxiv 2026-06-11	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.59	SICI: A Semantic-Pragmatic Complexity Index Reveals Regime Shifts in LLM Stance Detection	arxiv 2026-06-11	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.59	Detect, Remask, Repair: Diffusion Editing for Faithful Summarization of Evolving Contexts	arxiv 2026-06-11	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	The Long Tail, Not the Front Page: Cold-Start Prediction of Crowd Highlight Salience	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	Polarization Formalism for Photon-Gravitational Wave Mixing Around Magnetars	arxiv 2026-06-10	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Infinite-Order Lattice Chiral Anomalies and CPT	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	FDA ANDA064050: CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE (CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE) — PADAGIS US	fda 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA219830: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — ORIENT PHARMA	fda 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Will Wales become a US state before 2045?(market prob: 3%)	manifold 2026-06-13	241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade Peter Diamandis	AI	14%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-14	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	How many people will LEXER have sex with in June of 2026?	manifold 2026-06-14	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.59	How many people will LEXER have sex with in June of 2026?	manifold 2026-06-14	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.59	Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.59	Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 96%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Microsoft close or divest itself of Rare in 2026?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-15	238_041 Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	71%
0.59	[Free Mana] Bot Cucking Market	manifold 2026-06-15	229_011 The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor. Brett Adcock	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.59	Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Tereza Valentova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	IMPACTeen: Intentions, Manipulation, Persuasion, Annotations, and Consequences in Teen Communication Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.59	Dual-Granularity Orthogonal Disentanglement for Generalizable Audio Deepfake Detection	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Learned Image Compression for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	TCHG: Tri-Trust Conditioned Heterogeneous Graph Learning for Reliable Dynamic Trust Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-15	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	Taylor-Calibrate: Principled Initialization for Hybrid Linear Attention Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	Differentiable Packing of Irregular 3D Objects with Adaptive Container Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	When Confidence Lacks Concepts: Interpretable OOD Detection via Representation Perturbations	arxiv 2026-06-15	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Active Learning with Low-Rank Structure for Data Selection	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	DYNA : Dynamic Episodic Memory Networks for Augmenting Large Language Models with Temporal Knowledge Graphs in Continuous Learning	arxiv 2026-06-14	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.59	FDA NDA206321: SAXENDA (LIRAGLUTIDE) — NOVO	fda 2026-06-02	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Structural Role Injection in Handlebars-Templated LLM Prompts: Triple-Brace Interpolation, Delimiter Family, and the Limits of HTML Auto-Escaping	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	Geometric Consistency Protocol for Foundation Model Features in Multi-View Satellite Imagery	arxiv 2026-06-16	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.59	A Diffusion Approximation for Temporal-Difference Learning with Linear Features under Markovian Noise	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	MM++: Unsupervised Scale-Invariant Multilayer OOD Detection via Top-K Gated Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Uncertainty Quantification of Engineering Structures by Polynomial Chaos Expansion and Multivariate Active Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.59	ConSA: Controllable Sparsity in Hybrid Attention via Learnable Allocation	arxiv 2026-06-16	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Improving low-resource ASR using bilingual fine-tuning with language identification: a cross-linguistic evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.59	The Critical Role of Model Selection in Causal Inference: A Comparative Analysis of Classification Models within the InferBERT Framework for Pharmacovigilance	arxiv 2026-06-15	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Making complex CFTs real: The two-dimensional Potts model for $Q>4$ and complex $Q$	arxiv 2026-06-16	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.59	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.59	Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%