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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.59	FDA ANDA220493: BUPIVACAINE HYDROCHLORIDE (BUPIVACAINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ANTHEA PHARMA	fda 2026-04-22	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA ANDA210480: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ALVOGEN	fda 2026-04-27	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	FDA ANDA091655: ESCITALOPRAM OXALATE (ESCITALOPRAM OXALATE) — MICRO LABS	fda 2026-04-22	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08?(market prob: 68%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 23%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.59	Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-07	242_047 Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.59	Will Kalshi or Polymarket be convicted of fraud before 2029?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-07	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.59	Automatically Finding and Validating Unexpected Side-Effects of Interventions on Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.59	Self-Prompting Small Language Models for Privacy-Sensitive Clinical Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-05-05	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	MedFabric and EtHER: A Data-Centric Framework for Word-Level Fabrication Generation and Detection in Medical LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-05	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	FDA ANDA216992: DEFLAZACORT (DEFLAZACORT) — UPSHER SMITH LABS	fda 2026-04-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	FDA ANDA220328: FLUVOXAMINE MALEATE (FLUVOXAMINE MALEATE) — APPCO	fda 2026-04-30	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.5	github_release 2023-07-29	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.59	facebookresearch/faiss v1.14.1	github_release 2026-03-06	INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	48%
0.59	facebookresearch/faiss v1.11.0	github_release 2025-04-25	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.59	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.29.post3	github_release 2025-02-10	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.59	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.23.post1	github_release 2023-12-15	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.59	Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Favbet vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.59	3D MRI Image Pretraining via Controllable 2D Slice Navigation Task	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Q-MMR: Off-Policy Evaluation via Recursive Reweighting and Moment Matching	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.59	Systematic Evaluation of Large Language Models for Post-Discharge Clinical Action Extraction	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Dynamic Pondering Sparsity-aware Mixture-of-Experts Transformer for Event Stream based Visual Object Tracking	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Quantum Kernels for Audio Deepfake Detection Using Spectrogram Patch Features	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	ICU-Bench:Benchmarking Continual Unlearning in Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.59	PianoCoRe: Combined and Refined Piano MIDI Dataset	arxiv 2026-05-07	241_048 AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing Eric Schmidt	Education	51%
0.59	Estimate Level Adjustment For Inference With Proxies Under Random Distribution Shifts	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	When Does $\ell_2$-Boosting Overfit Benignly? High-Dimensional Risk Asymptotics and the $\ell_1$ Implicit Bias	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.59	When Labels Have Structure: Improving Image Classification with Hierarchy-Aware Cross-Entropy	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Expressivity of Bi-Lipschitz Normalizing Flows: A Score-Based Diffusion Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-07	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	TabCF: Distributional Control Function Estimation with Tabular Foundation Models	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Uncovering Entity Identity Confusion in Multimodal Knowledge Editing	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	RVPO: Risk-Sensitive Alignment via Variance Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-07	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	SLAM: Structural Linguistic Activation Marking for Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.59	Generating Query-Focused Summarization Datasets from Query-Free Summarization Datasets	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.59	TouchDrive: Electronics-Free Tactile Sensing Interface for Assistive Grasping	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Dr-PoGO: Direct Radar Pose-Graph Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-06	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.59	Tightly-Coupled Estimation and Guidance for Robust Low-Thrust Rendezvous via Adaptive Homotopy	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Nonthermal leptogenesis via cosmological gravitational particle production is tested by inflationary gravitational waves	arxiv 2026-05-06	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	8%
0.59	Perturbations and greybody bounds of Euler-Heisenberg black holes surrounded by perfect fluid dark matter	arxiv 2026-05-06	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Fundamental or Composite? The Higgs Enigma	arxiv 2026-05-06	232_015 AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.59	Fundamental or Composite? The Higgs Enigma	arxiv 2026-05-06	ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis	AI	8%
0.59	Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2025-12-17	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.59	FLUOR CORP (FLR) (CIK 0001124198)	edgar_8k 2026-05-08	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.59	Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will OMIE Spain 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed €60/MWh?(market prob: 51%)	manifold 2026-05-04	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.59	Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.59	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?(market prob: 79%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.59	What will be the outcome of the EEOC suit against the NYT?	manifold 2026-05-11	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.59	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.5	github_release 2025-10-15	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.59	Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.59	Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	Valorant: Joblife vs WIP Esports (BO5) - VCL France: Revolution Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	61%
0.59	Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will WHO classify the current hantavirus outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by end of 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-12	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.59	Will the Mechanize.work team have to hire bodyguards/bomb scanners by EOY2031?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-12	248_011 Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threat this year. Dave Blundin	AI	60%
0.59	BTC closes above $85k at end of month?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	facebookresearch/HolisticTraceAnalysis v0.6.1	github_release 2026-04-21	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.59	Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	71%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.59	LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP) (CIK 0000733269)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.59	Environment-Adaptive Preference Optimization for Wildfire Prediction	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.59	KAN-CL: Per-Knot Importance Regularization for Continual Learning with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	Optimal Policy Learning under Budget and Coverage Constraints	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	TriBand-BEV: Real-Time LiDAR-Only 3D Pedestrian Detection via Height-Aware BEV and High-Resolution Feature Fusion	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	A Unified Graph Language Model for Multi-Domain Multi-Task Graph Alignment Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Towards Order Fairness: Mitigating LLMs Order Sensitivity through Dual Group Advantage Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	Learning Weakly Communicating Average-Reward CMDPs: Strong Duality and Improved Regret	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.59	Sharpen Your Flow: Sharpness-Aware Sampling for Flow Matching	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-07-28	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.59	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?(market prob: 69%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Manifest 2026 Prop Bets	manifold 2026-05-13	231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.59	Provable Quantization with Randomized Hadamard Transform	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.59	Multimodal Graph-based Classification of Esophageal Motility Disorders	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Reframing preprocessing selection as model-internal calibration in near-infrared spectroscopy: A large-scale benchmark of operator-adaptive PLS and Ridge models	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	DP-KFC: Data-Free Preconditioning for Privacy-Preserving Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.59	Continual Learning with Multilingual Foundation Model	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	GeoFlowVLM: Geometry-Aware Joint Uncertainty for Frozen Vision-Language Embedding	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.59	Decision Tree Learning on Product Spaces	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.59	FDA ANDA204982: PHENTERMINE HYDROCHLORIDE AND TOPIRAMATE (PHENTERMINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ACTAVIS LABS FL INC	fda 2026-05-01	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	Will Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.59	RefDecoder: Enhancing Visual Generation with Conditional Video Decoding	arxiv 2026-05-14	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.59	Average Gradient Outer Product in kernel regression provably recovers the central subspace for multi-index models	arxiv 2026-05-14	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	Distance-Matrix Wasserstein Statistics for Scalable Gromov--Wasserstein Learning	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Denoising-GS: Gaussian Splatting with Spatial-aware Denoising	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.59	ToMAToMP: Robust and Multi-Parameter Topological Clustering	arxiv 2026-05-14	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.59	RQ-MoE: Residual Quantization via Mixture of Experts for Efficient Input-Dependent Vector Compression	arxiv 2026-05-14	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	bde: A Python Package for Bayesian Deep Ensembles via MILE	arxiv 2026-05-13	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	FDA ANDA218364: LEVETIRACETAM IN SODIUM CHLORIDE (LEVETIRACETAM) — MYLAN LABS LTD	fda 2026-05-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.59	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.59	What will my custom Zetamac score (average of 5) be in a week?	manifold 2026-05-16	INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn	Consumer	77%
0.59	FDA ANDA076228: RISPERIDONE (RISPERIDONE) — HERITAGE PHARMA AVET	fda 2026-05-07	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	facebookresearch/hydra v1.1.0.rc1	github_release 2021-05-13	237_002 We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.59	LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Group Stage	manifold 2026-05-17	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.59	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Group Stage	manifold 2026-05-17	CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley	Macro/Economy	61%
0.59	Will I be able to convince Claudius Maximus in any Convince the Machine?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-17	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.59	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-18	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang	Policy/Semis	66%
0.59	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Which US political party will be the more "pro-AI" party at the time of the 2028 presidential debates?	manifold 2026-05-18	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.59	Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 22nd, 2026?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-05-18	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.59	Will the next president of France be the result of the 2027 planned elections?(market prob: 90%)	manifold 2026-05-18	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.59	Will MrBeast become a billionaire before age 35?(market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-05-18	248_009 Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	37%
0.59	LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP) (CIK 0000733269)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.59	Spread: Knicks (-5.5)(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	20%
0.59	Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.59	Any new Veo model released during Google I/O(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-05-18	239_013 Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every year Elon Musk	Robotics	37%
0.59	Efficient and Noise-Tolerant PAC Learning of Multiclass Linear Classifiers	arxiv 2026-05-18	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.59	Statistical Limits and Efficient Algorithms for Differentially Private Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-05-18	234_003 Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.59	Physics-Aligned Canonical Equivariant Fourier Neural Operator under Symmetry-Induced Shifts	arxiv 2026-05-18	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.59	Randomized Advantage Transformation (RAT): Computing Natural Policy Gradients via Direct Backpropagation	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	GUT-IS: A Data-Driven Approach to Integrating Constructs and Their Relations in Information Systems	arxiv 2026-05-18	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.59	Robust Player-Conditional Champion Ranking for League of Legends: Style Similarity, Mastery Priors, and Archetype-Constrained Discovery	arxiv 2026-05-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	FLAG: Foundation model representation with Latent diffusion Alignment via Graph for spatial gene expression prediction	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	SVFSearch: A Multimodal Knowledge-Intensive Benchmark for Short-Video Frame Search in the Gaming Vertical Domain	arxiv 2026-05-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.59	Simple Approximation and Derivative Free Inference-Time Scaling for Diffusion Models via Sequential Monte Carlo on Path Measures	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.59	FDA BLA761070: FASENRA (BENRALIZUMAB) — ASTRAZENECA AB	fda 2026-05-13	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.59	Will David Njoku play for Denver Broncos in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	What will Australia's total net overseas migration be for FY 25/26?	manifold 2026-05-29	234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Will I comment on this market?(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-28	246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	34%
0.59	2027 French Open - Women’s singles winner?	manifold 2026-05-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Gobierno de Laura Fernández Delgado, Costa Rica 2026-2030	manifold 2026-05-27	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	How many people will end up with a NSBA4 Combine Score equal to 15	manifold 2026-05-27	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.59	Hummingbird connectome by EOY2032(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-25	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	How many individuals will qualify for tiebreakers at ARML 2026?	manifold 2026-05-25	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.59	iLoRA: Bayesian Low-Rank Adaptation with Latent Interaction Graphs for Microbiome Diagnosis	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg	Biotech/Longevity	70%
0.59	Efficient Test-Time Finetuning of LLMs via Convex Reconstruction and Gradient Caching	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Fairness-Aware Federated Learning with Trajectory Shapley Value	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	When, why, and how do diffusion posterior samplers fail? A finite-sample lens	arxiv 2026-05-28	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.59	Wasserstein Contraction of Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	SGMD: Score Gradient Matching Distillation for Few-Step Video Diffusion Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Improving Adversarial Robustness of Attribution via Implicit Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-28	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.59	Improving Adversarial Robustness of Attribution via Implicit Regularization	arxiv 2026-05-28	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.59	DiffSpot: Can VLMs Spot Fine-Grained Visual Differences in Web Interfaces?	arxiv 2026-05-28	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.59	FDA BLA761452: IMMGOLIS (GOLIMUMAB-SLDI) — ACCORD BIOPHARMA INC.	fda 2026-05-15	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.59	Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in June 2026?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-31	243_036 Price of rides will come down with autonomous driving Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	41%
0.59	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.59	Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.59	Will Connecticut Sun win the 2026 WNBA Finals?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.59	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-29	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.59	Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.59	Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs Arnaldi(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.59	Starmer out before August?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-01	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.59	FDA NDA220711: BEQALZI (SONROTOCLAX) — BEONE MEDICINES USA	fda 2026-05-13	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.59	Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.59	Will my trader bonuses exceed… for the June season?	manifold 2026-06-02	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.59	Will someone send me 1000 or more mana before this market closes?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-02	240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley	Energy	47%
0.59	Brazil 2026 Election: Will the US announce a new tariff targeting Brazilian products before Brazil’s 2026 election?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-01	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.59	Forget Attention: Importance-Aware Attention Is All You Need	arxiv 2026-06-01	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.59	Towards Resolving Optimization Conflicts Between Image- and Text-Based Person Re-Identification	arxiv 2026-06-01	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.59	Multimodal Approaches for Visually-Rich Document Type Classification: A Comparative Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.59	Attention mechanisms and transfer learning for robust peach leaf damage classification under domain shift	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	The Image Reconstruction Game: Drawing Common Ground Through Iterative Multimodal Dialogue	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	RPCASSM: Robust PCA State Space Model For Infrared Small Target Detection	arxiv 2026-06-01	CYB_030 Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... Jensen Huang	Space	33%
0.59	S-SPPO: Semantic-Calibrated Self-Play Preference Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.59	TN-SHAP-G: Graph-Structured Tensor Network Surrogates for Shapley Values and Interactions	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	Transferring Information Across Interventions in Causal Bayesian Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-31	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Regularized Large Neighborhood Search	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.59	EEG-FuseFormer: A Transformer-Driven Feature Fusion Framework for Seizure Onset Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-01	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.59	Graph Edit Distance Formulation for the Vehicle Routing Problem: Theory and Analysis	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.59	A Note on Stability for Orthogonalized Matrix Momentum with Client Sampling	arxiv 2026-06-01	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.59	Learning Chaotic Dynamics through Second-Order Geometric Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-01	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.59	Learning Chaotic Dynamics through Second-Order Geometric Supervision	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.59	Semi-Supervised Hyperbolic Hierarchical Clustering with Set-Level Structural Priors	arxiv 2026-06-01	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.59	SentGuard: Sentence-Level Streaming Guardrails for Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-01	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.59	Why Do Self-Harm Prediction Models Struggle to Generalise? Lexical and Semantic Variations in Emergency Department Triage Notes	arxiv 2026-06-01	237_001 Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.59	Why Do Self-Harm Prediction Models Struggle to Generalise? Lexical and Semantic Variations in Emergency Department Triage Notes	arxiv 2026-06-01	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.59	Med-HEAL: Analyzing and Mitigating Hallucinations in Medical LLMs with Hallucination-Aware In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-05-31	CYB_025 The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an active 'partner' — when an autonomous AI consultant hallucinates legal precedent or medical diagnosis, traditional corporate malpractice frameworks fail; courts must rapidly est... Ralph Losey	Other	77%
0.59	Worlds Within Words: Translating Culture in Ancient Chinese Texts with Multi-Agent Coordination	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.59	From Outliers to Errors: Auditing Pali-to-English LLM Translations with Multi-Reference Adjudication	arxiv 2026-05-31	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.59	FDA NDA219423: WIDAPLIK (AMLODIPINE BESYLATE) — AZURITY	fda 2026-05-28	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.59	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.59	Will CD Real Tomayapo vs. Club ABB end in a draw?(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.59	Will CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo win on 2026-06-20?(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-23	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.59	FDA NDA217379: CAVHANZA (NILOTINIB) — FLEX PHARMA	fda 2026-05-29	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%