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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-12 | SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Mathematics | 15% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 34%) | manifold 2026-05-13 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-15 | 236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 247_015 Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence Peter Diamandis | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Hantavirus become a pandemic in 2026?(market prob: 4%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.59 | Keir Starmer out before September 1 2026?(market prob: 86%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-16 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.59 | Will there be a physical protest at YouTube headquarters before 2028?(market prob: 58%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | |
| 0.59 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $94 on June 10, 2026?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 245_031 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadly Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 242_020 Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K Elon Musk | Auto/Transport | 31% | ||
| 0.59 | Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-05-27 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-26 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.59 | 9984.T (SoftBank Group Corp.) over 10,000 by Thursday 11 June, 2026?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.59 | Will Bayern Munich win the 2026/2027 Bundesliga season(market prob: 75%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in June 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 230_021 Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.59 | More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.59 | U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | S_AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause beginning 2028 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-10 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I reach a streak of 100 in Wordle?(market prob: 40%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $94 on June 20, 2026?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.59 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $94 on June 20, 2026?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will Israel hold an election in 2027?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.59 | Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TST(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | |
| 0.59 | US-Iran negotiations resume before June 2026? (check description)(market prob: 85%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 48%) | manifold 2026-04-28 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | Florida Redistricting Before 2026 Midterms?(market prob: 81%) | manifold 2026-04-27 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 230_025 The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. Peter Diamandis | AI | 52% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-25 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.59 | will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 246_046 Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years. Peter Diamandis | Real Estate | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 232_014 Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 70% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 234_011 Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increase Alex Wissner-Gross | Defense | 39% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-04-29 | SEM_045 Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forcing total organizational transformations. Salim Ismail | Economy/Org | 54% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-03 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.59 | Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?(market prob: 39%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.59 | Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | INF_001 Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | Will the US average gas price hit $5 per gallon in May 2026?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.59 | Will New York City temperature go up in the next 24h?(market prob: 64%) | manifold 2026-05-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-05 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.59 | Am I worthy of moral consideration [Convince the Machine #5](market prob: 44%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz | AI | 51% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-06 | SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba | AI/Hardware | 71% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-05-06 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 242_047 Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Kalshi or Polymarket be convicted of fraud before 2029?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-07 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | |
| 0.59 | Will OMIE Spain 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed €60/MWh?(market prob: 51%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-12 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 248_011 Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threat this year. Dave Blundin | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.59 | BTC closes above $85k at end of month?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-13 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-16 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-17 | CMQ_020 Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. Morgan Stanley | Macro/Economy | 67% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I be able to convince Claudius Maximus in any Convince the Machine?(market prob: 28%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis | AI | 40% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on May 22nd, 2026?(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | Will MrBeast become a billionaire before age 35?(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 248_009 Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 37% | |
| 0.59 | Any new Veo model released during Google I/O(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | 239_013 Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every year Elon Musk | Robotics | 37% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 234_013 Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | Will I comment on this market?(market prob: 17%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | 246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-27 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.59 | Hummingbird connectome by EOY2032(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-05-25 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.59 | Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in June 2026?(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 243_036 Price of rides will come down with autonomous driving Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | |
| 0.59 | Starmer out before August?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.59 | Will someone send me 1000 or more mana before this market closes?(market prob: 20%) | manifold 2026-06-02 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-01 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in June 2026?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.59 | Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 236_023 AI will replace white-collar jobs: 20-50% of 70M US office workers in 12-18 months Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.59 | Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.59 | 30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028(market prob: 30%) | manifold 2026-06-07 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.59 | Will silver hit $60/oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 12%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 37% | |
| 0.59 | Will I resolve this as yes or no?(market prob: 55%) | manifold 2026-06-10 | 232_058 Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.59 | What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.59 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.59 | Will Wales become a US state before 2045?(market prob: 3%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade Peter Diamandis | AI | 36% |