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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.58	Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.58	Spread: Colombia (-1.5)(market prob: 63%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.58	Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Do you like 42% odds?(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-06-06	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.58	No-Harm Physics-Informed Inverse Learning with Residual-Calibrated Uncertainty	arxiv 2026-06-05	232_058 Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.58	The Lipreading Gap: Do VSR Models Perceive Visual Speech Like Human Lipreaders?	arxiv 2026-06-05	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.58	An Expanded Synthetic Conversation Dataset for Multi-Turn Smishing Detection	arxiv 2026-06-05	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.58	facebookresearch/maskrcnn-benchmark v0.1	github_release 2019-09-10	238_025 AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level Emad Mostaque	AI	45%
0.58	facebookresearch/maskrcnn-benchmark v0.1	github_release 2019-09-10	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.58	LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) (CIK 0001736297)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.58	10x Genomics, Inc. (TXG) (CIK 0001770787)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.58	FDA ANDA220724: ANDA220724 ((unspecified)) — ZYDUS PHARMACEUTICALS (USA) INC.	fda 2026-05-28	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	Will Tyreek Hill play for the Dallas Cowboys next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-16	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.58	Will LeBron James play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-09	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.58	......MART.......(market prob: 97%)	manifold 2026-06-09	243_041 Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expected Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	48%
0.58	Redwire Corp (RDW) (CIK 0001819810)	edgar_8k 2026-06-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	From Coarse to Fine: Managing Temporal Granularity in Spatio-Temporal Data for Fine-Grained Traffic Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-08	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.58	Decoding Pedestrian Crossing Intention from Egocentric Vision via Vision Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	243_011 Autonomous driver will be much safer than a human being Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.58	Decoding Pedestrian Crossing Intention from Egocentric Vision via Vision Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-08	S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030	robotaxi_deployment	30%
0.58	An Enhanced Geometric-Spectral Feature Learning Framework for Airborne Multispectral Point Cloud Classification	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.58	Thresholded Local Hyper-Flow Diffusion	arxiv 2026-06-08	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.58	Asymptotic Optimality of Thompson Sampling for Risk-Averse Bandits with Sub-Gaussian Rewards	arxiv 2026-06-08	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	DECSELFMASK: Leveraging Unlabeled Text via Self-Relevance-Guided Masking for Decoder-Only Classification	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Segment-level Tree Search for Long Meeting Document Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Dual Quaternion-Based Unscented Kalman Filter with Visual Inertial Odometry for Navigation in GPS-Denied Environments	arxiv 2026-06-08	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.58	Can we stabilize an inverted pendulum with feedback from a time-of-flight camera?	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Model of Flavors	arxiv 2026-06-08	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.58	FDA ANDA216772: BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE (BRIMONIDINE TARTRATE) — UPSHER SMITH LABS	fda 2026-06-05	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	facebookresearch/Ego4d 1.5.2	github_release 2023-12-15	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.58	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.58	Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.58	Will George Pickens play for Cleveland Browns in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-27	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.58	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.58	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.58	Spread: Knicks (-1.5)(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.58	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.58	What Do Deepfake Speech Detectors Actually Hear?	arxiv 2026-06-09	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.58	One Token per Multimodal Evidence: Latent Memory for Resource-Constrained QA	arxiv 2026-06-09	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	LC-QAT: Data-Efficient 2-Bit QAT for LLMs via Linear-Constrained Vector Quantization	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.58	ERAlign: Energy-based Representation Alignment of GNNs and LLMs on Text-attributed Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Content-Induced Spatial-Spectral Aggregation Network for Change Detection in Remote Sensing Images	arxiv 2026-06-09	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	From Context-Aware to Conflict-Aware: Generalizing Contrastive Decoding for Knowledge Conflict in LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-09	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	Temporal Sheaf Neural Networks with Dynamic Orthogonal Transport	arxiv 2026-06-08	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	A Controlled Audit of Pretraining Contamination in Public Medical Vision-Language Benchmarks	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	DECSELFMASK: Leveraging Unlabeled Text via Self-Relevance-Guided Masking for Decoder-Only Classification	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Improved Representation of Matrix Lie Group Operations through Tensor Notation	arxiv 2026-06-09	SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Physics	56%
0.58	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-31	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.58	Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	nD-RoPE: A Generalized RoPE for n-Dimensional Position Embedding	arxiv 2026-06-10	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	Augmenting Molecular Language Models with Local $n$-gram Memory	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Lung-R1: A Knowledge Graph-Guided LLM for Pulmonary Diagnostic Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.58	PianoKontext: Expressive Performance Rendering from Deadpan Context	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	GraspLLM: Towards Zero-Shot Generalization on Text-Attributed Graphs with LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.58	TaskFusion: Continual Anomaly Detection for Heterogeneous Tabular Data	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	RCAP: Robust, Class-Aware, Probabilistic Dynamic Dataset Pruning	arxiv 2026-06-10	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Probabilistic Salary Prediction with Graph Attention Networks and a Mixture Density Network	arxiv 2026-06-10	INF_028 AI will render approximately 99% of white-collar jobs replaceable within two years — cognitive-labor costs will mathematically approach the marginal cost of electricity required to generate inference. Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	14%
0.58	A Resource for Enthymeme Detection in Controversial Political Discourse	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	A Resource for Enthymeme Detection in Controversial Political Discourse	arxiv 2026-06-10	CYB_005 'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' will effectively transition into highly politicized debates over 'memory policy'. Whichever entity controls the contextual history and relational memory of human-AI interactio... Ray Kurzweil	AI	30%
0.58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC (MPWR) (CIK 0001280452)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	241_020 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers Eric Schmidt	Energy	49%
0.58	Dual-Domain Equivariant Generative Adversarial Network for Multimodal CT-PET Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-11	INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	17%
0.58	AfriSUD: A Dependency Treebank Collection for Evaluating Models on African Languages	arxiv 2026-06-10	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.58	A Zero-shot Generalized Graph Anomaly Detection Framework via Node Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-10	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.58	Limits of spectral learning under noise	arxiv 2026-06-11	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	An End-to-End Hybrid Framework for Rumour Detection in Low-Resources Algerian Dialect	arxiv 2026-06-11	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	32%
0.58	GraspLLM: Towards Zero-Shot Generalization on Text-Attributed Graphs with LLMs	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.58	Black Hole Thermodynamics Meets On-Shell Amplitudes: Local Detailed Balance and Thermal Spectrum from Spin Universality and Unitarity	arxiv 2026-06-11	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Mapping the Infrared Phase Space of Gravity to Finite Subregions	arxiv 2026-06-10	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	FDA ANDA219165: PROPRANOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE (PROPRANOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — PAI HOLDINGS	fda 2026-06-10	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.58	Will Kevin Roy win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Noah Okafor be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.58	Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-13	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.58	Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-13	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.58	FDA ANDA203047: VALACYCLOVIR HYDROCHLORIDE (VALACYCLOVIR HYDROCHLORIDE) — HETERO LABS LTD V	fda 2026-06-10	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA BLA761364: IMULDOSA (USTEKINUMAB-SRLF) — ACCORD BIOPHARMA INC.	fda 2026-06-05	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.58	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.7.1	github_release 2019-06-20	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.58	Spread: Brazil (-4.5)(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.58	Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.58	Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will the number of U.S. Supreme Court Justices confirmed between June 15, 2026 and January 20, 2029 be at least one?(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-06-15	247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis	AI	71%
0.58	US Gas Price on July 1?	manifold 2026-06-14	243_043 Tesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150K Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	51%
0.58	US Gas Price on July 1?	manifold 2026-06-14	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	45%
0.58	Will the Fed cut the federal funds rate at its July 2026 FOMC meeting?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-14	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.58	facebookresearch/pytorch3d v0.7.6	github_release 2024-02-22	229_039 Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into future humanoids. Brett Adcock	Robotics	28%
0.58	Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? (market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Donna Vekic win the 2026 Women’s US Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Will Connelly Early win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	19%
0.58	Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will there be a VAR/refereeing controversy that causes a team to officially protest a World Cup 2026 group-stage result(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-06-16	236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.58	2026 Esports World Cup - Chess winner?	manifold 2026-06-16	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.58	Model Graph Inductive Learning for Knowledge Graph Completion	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	Learned Image Compression for Vision-Language-Action Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.58	A comparative and critical study of EEGNet for fNIRS-driven cognitive load classification	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_043 In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of end-to-end latency — validating CPU-bottleneck shift empirically. Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel	AI/Compute	92%
0.58	ALCL: An Adaptive Log-Correntropy Loss for Robust Learning under Non-Gaussian Noise	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	ALCL: An Adaptive Log-Correntropy Loss for Robust Learning under Non-Gaussian Noise	arxiv 2026-06-14	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Your Privacy My Cloak: Backdoor Attacks on Differentially Private Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.58	QK-Normed MLA: QK normalization without full key caching	arxiv 2026-06-15	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	SCAR: Semantic Continuity-Aware Retrieval for Efficient Context Expansion in RAG	arxiv 2026-06-15	240_033 AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks Salim Ismail	AI	42%
0.58	Extending Item Response Theory for Efficient and Meaningful Multilingual Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-14	INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis	AI	40%
0.58	Distilling Examples into Task Instructions: Enhanced In-Context Learning for Real-World B2B Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-14	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.58	Distilling Examples into Task Instructions: Enhanced In-Context Learning for Real-World B2B Conversations	arxiv 2026-06-14	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	A Gauge-Covariant Geometric Framework for Non-Hermitian Quantum Systems	arxiv 2026-06-14	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	FDA NDA016694: DEXTROSE 10% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — BAXTER HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-11	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.58	Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Spread: Ghana (-1.5)(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Cuban regime falls in 2026?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-03-10	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.58	Symplectic Transversality and Endpoint Green Estimates for Finite-Horizon Pontryagin Systems	arxiv 2026-06-16	FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community	AI	46%
0.58	Bounding Box Label Propagation for Re-Annotation of Document Layout Analysis Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-16	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	A Machine-Learned Comorbidity Index	arxiv 2026-06-16	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.58	Graph Neural Networks for Semi-Supervised Image Classification with Multi-Feature Aggregation	arxiv 2026-06-16	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	A fairness-aware extension of Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis for ranking	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	Constrained Diffusion Models with Primal-Dual Inference	arxiv 2026-06-15	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Black hole equations of state and response functions	arxiv 2026-06-15	INF_054 Valar HTGR gigasites will chemically store excess energy by synthesizing carbon-neutral hydrocarbon fuels from high-temperature nuclear heat — addressing a trillion-dollar TAM by decarbonizing steel, cement, and petrochemicals. Isaiah Taylor	Energy	16%
0.58	Derivation of height field theory for the two-dimensional classical dimer model from a Grassmann-integral representation	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	When Renormalisation Remembers: UV/IR Mixing as an Entanglement Bridge	arxiv 2026-06-15	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin	AI	36%
0.58	Redwire Corp (RDW) (CIK 0001819810)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	NextDecade Corp (NEXT) (CIK 0001612720)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Reference-Driven Multi-Speaker Audio Scene Generation from In-the-Wild Priors	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Graph Grounded Cross Attention Transformer Neural Network for Structurally Constrained Full Event Sequence Generation in Predictive Process Monitoring	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	BCL: Bayesian In-Context Learning Framework for Information Extraction	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Urdu Katib Handwritten Dataset: A Historical Document Dataset for Offline Urdu Handwritten Text Recognition with CRNN-Based Baseline Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Technical Report for ICRA 2026 GOOSE 2D Fine-Grained Semantic Segmentation Challenge: Leveraging DINOv3 for Robust Outdoor Scene Understanding in Field Robotics	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	ASEP/DSSYK duality and strange correlator	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Spread: Brazil (-1.5)(market prob: 73%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	37%
0.58	Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.58	Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2025-12-16	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	36%
0.58	Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Spread: Haiti (-1.5)(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will DELL close above $470 this week?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-19	INF_042 Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... Marc Andreessen	Macro/Economy	48%
0.58	Market resolves to whoever add the most liquidity to this market	manifold 2026-06-19	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.58	Pourrait il avoir un attentat au USA pendant la coupe du monde 2026?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-19	AUT_024 H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented concentration of computational power at leading American laboratories — AI has been elevated from mere thematic investment to structural 'macro variable' akin to oil prices or int... Morgan Stanley	AI	42%
0.58	Pourrait il avoir un attentat au USA pendant la coupe du monde 2026?(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-19	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.58	This market resolves to whatever the comments convince me to resolve it to(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-18	230_043 The economic surplus won't go to employees or companies but to the AIs (lobsters) in a 'crypto dystopia'. Alex Wissner-Gross	Crypto	36%
0.58	MakeupMirror: Improving Facial Attribute Preservation in Diffusion Models for Makeup Transfer	arxiv 2026-06-18	AI_024 As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... Mark Cuban	Consumer	45%
0.58	SL-S4Wave: Self-Supervised Learning of Physiological Waveforms with Structured State Space Models	arxiv 2026-06-18	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.58	The Token Is a Group Element: On Lie-Algebra Attention over Matrix Lie Groups	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_023 Tokens are the new raw material — data centers are no longer cost centers but active 'AI factories' that consume electricity and data to manufacture tokens. Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	65%
0.58	Pitch Spelling Jazz Lead Sheets, Solo Transcriptions, Classical Piano and Monophonic Scores	arxiv 2026-06-18	248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	45%
0.58	Evolving Dark Energy Is Vacuum Energy After All	arxiv 2026-06-18	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.58	Constraining ADD black holes at the LHC with $\sqrt{s} = 14$ TeV	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_038 Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s bandwidth — optimized to reduce 'time to first token' for long-context LLM inference. Micron	Semis/Memory	52%
0.58	Operational Tube-Sector Theory of Quantum State Distinguishability Under Generalized Symmetries	arxiv 2026-06-18	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Operational Tube-Sector Theory of Quantum State Distinguishability Under Generalized Symmetries	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.58	FDA ANDA202593: CAPECITABINE (CAPECITABINE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	FDA ANDA219370: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — AUSON	fda 2026-06-09	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.58	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Francisco Cerúndolo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Ronald Acuña Jr. hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Spread: Portugal (-2.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.58	Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.58	Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	53%
0.58	Will Jeremy Peña have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	20%
0.58	Will Jeremy Peña have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%