Validations Queue

95,758 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 288 of 444, 200 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.

Pending (total)

95,758

Reviewed

Filtered

88,682

page 288 / 444

Showing on page

200

Filters

URL params control source + min-similarity threshold

Source

All (95758)arxiv (44382)codex_research_pack (134)edgar_8k (3366)fda (4550)gdelt (1218)github_release (3112)manifold (9838)polymarket (29158)

Page size

50 100 200 500

Bulk auto-confirm by similarity threshold

Confirm or label (corroborates / contradicts) all unreviewed links above a similarity threshold in one transaction. Each affected row writes a per-link audit_log entry. Capped at 1,000 links per call. Use Preview first.

Threshold:Source:Action:

Source0 selected · 0 visible

Bulk action

Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.60	meta-llama/llama-cookbook v0.0.4	github_release 2024-09-25	245_007 Colossal will bring back the woolly mammoth Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.60	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.1.3	github_release 2025-08-13	237_019 Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.18.1	github_release 2025-03-11	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.9.1	github_release 2025-11-12	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.9.0	github_release 2025-10-15	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.7.0	github_release 2025-04-23	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.2.2	github_release 2024-03-27	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.2.2	github_release 2024-03-27	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.60	pytorch/pytorch v2.1.1	github_release 2023-11-15	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	1x-technologies/halodi-robot-models 2.3.3	github_release 2020-11-03	229_039 Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into future humanoids. Brett Adcock	Robotics	28%
0.60	Spread: Knicks (-6.5)(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will this market appear on a mug?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-06	230_037 Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. Dave Blundin	Consumer	50%
0.60	Will abhishaike mahajan ever win the nobel prize?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.60	Flow Sampling: Learning to Sample from Unnormalized Densities via Denoising Conditional Processes	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	Feature-Augmented Transformers for Robust AI-Text Detection Across Domains and Generators	arxiv 2026-05-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Feature-Augmented Transformers for Robust AI-Text Detection Across Domains and Generators	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	PHALAR: Phasors for Learned Musical Audio Representations	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	PerFlow: Physics-Embedded Rectified Flow for Efficient Reconstruction and Uncertainty Quantification of Spatiotemporal Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Meta-Inverse Physics-Informed Neural Networks for High-Dimensional Ordinary Differential Equations	arxiv 2026-05-05	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	FINER-SQL: Boosting Small Language Models for Text-to-SQL	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Deepfake Audio Detection Using Self-supervised Fusion Representations	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.60	FreeTimeGS++: Secrets of Dynamic Gaussian Splatting and Their Principles	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	MedStruct-S: A Benchmark for Key Discovery, Key-Conditioned QA and Semi-Structured Extraction from OCR Clinical Reports	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.60	Static Analysis of Recursive SHACL	arxiv 2026-05-04	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Ecologically-Constrained Task Arithmetic for Multi-Taxa Bioacoustic Classifiers Without Shared Data	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Raising the Ceiling: Better Empirical Fixation Densities for Saliency Benchmarking	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses	arxiv 2026-05-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	GEM-FI: Gated Evidential Mixtures with Fisher Modulation	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.60	SURE-RAG: Sufficiency and Uncertainty-Aware Evidence Verification for Selective Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching	arxiv 2026-05-05	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.60	Adaptive graph-based algorithms for conditional anomaly detection and semi-supervised learning	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.60	Intrinsic effective sample size for manifold-valued Markov chain Monte Carlo via kernel discrepancy	arxiv 2026-05-05	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Conformalized Percentile Interval: Finite Sample Validity and Improved Conditional Performance	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.60	Enhancing AI-Based ECG Delineation with Deep Learning Denoising Techniques	arxiv 2026-05-04	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.60	Learning to Segment using Summary Statistics and Weak Supervision	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Visual Latents Know More Than They Say: Unsilencing Latent Reasoning in MLLMs	arxiv 2026-05-04	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.60	Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping	arxiv 2026-05-04	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	15%
0.60	Sensorless State Estimation and Control for Agile Cable-Suspended Payload Transport by Quadrotors	arxiv 2026-05-05	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Hyp2Former: Hierarchy-Aware Hyperbolic Embeddings for Open-Set Panoptic Segmentation	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Minimum lifetime of a black hole	arxiv 2026-05-05	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.60	Preparing High-Fidelity Thermofield Double States	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.60	The free energy limit of the SYK model at high temperature	arxiv 2026-05-04	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	FDA ANDA211846: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-04-27	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.60	FDA ANDA205806: BUPRENORPHINE HYDROCHLORIDE AND NALOXONE HYDROCHLORIDE (BUPRENORPHINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — DR REDDYS LABS SA	fda 2026-04-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	facebookresearch/omnilingual-asr 0.2.0	github_release 2025-12-22	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.60	Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.60	Benchmarking POS Tagging for the Tajik Language: A Comparative Study of Neural Architectures on the TajPersParallel Corpus	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.60	FDA NDA219008: LAZCLUZE (LAZERTINIB MESYLATE) — JANSSEN BIOTECH	fda 2026-04-30	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.4	github_release 2026-05-07	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	facebookresearch/balance 0.19.0	github_release 2026-04-06	242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	facebookresearch/balance 0.12.0	github_release 2025-10-15	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.60	facebookresearch/balance 0.12.0	github_release 2025-10-15	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.60	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.27	github_release 2024-07-09	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.23	github_release 2023-12-06	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.60	Spread: Spurs (-4.5)(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Counter-Strike: MIBR fe vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Playoffs(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	O/U 2.5 Rounds(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-04-18	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.60	Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Sparkle: Realizing Lively Instruction-Guided Video Background Replacement via Decoupled Guidance	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	COVID-19 Infodemic. Understanding content features in detecting fake news using a machine learning approach	arxiv 2026-05-07	232_007 TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. Dave Blundin	Media/Ads	45%
0.60	XDecomposer: Learning Prior-Free Set Decomposition for Multiphase X-ray Diffraction	arxiv 2026-05-07	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	PairAlign: A Framework for Sequence Tokenization via Self-Alignment with Applications to Audio Tokenization	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.60	Decoupled PFNs: Identifiable Epistemic-Aleatoric Decomposition via Structured Synthetic Priors	arxiv 2026-05-07	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-07	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.60	Expressivity of Bi-Lipschitz Normalizing Flows: A Score-Based Diffusion Perspective	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Fast Gauss-Newton for Multiclass Cross-Entropy	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Sharper Guarantees for Misspecified Kernelized Bandit Optimization	arxiv 2026-05-07	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Plug-and-Play Label Map Diffusion for Universal Goal-Oriented Navigation	arxiv 2026-05-07	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Autonomous Laparoscope Control through Unified Mechanics-Based Representation of Multimodal Intraoperative Information	arxiv 2026-05-06	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Lattice fermion formulation via Physics-Informed Neural Networks: Ginsparg-Wilson relation and Overlap fermions	arxiv 2026-05-07	231_047 Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.60	Frustrated Fields: Statistical Field Theory for Frustrated Brownian Particles on 2D Manifolds	arxiv 2026-05-06	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	Medium Characterization with Hard Probes: From Cherenkov Light in QED to Jet Drift in QCD	arxiv 2026-05-06	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-12-29	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-02-19	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will I use Hermes Agent for more than a week?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-09	237_029 AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. Dave Blundin	AI	47%
0.60	LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5)(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Game Handicap: TOG (-1.5) vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Alternate requested FairlyRandom market(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.60	Australia's 2026-27 Budget - Props	manifold 2026-05-11	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.60	Free Lottery (Cosmic Explorer)(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	24%
0.60	UR-ENERGY INC (URG) (CIK 0001375205)	edgar_8k 2026-05-11	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.60	facebookresearch/spdl v0.4.0	github_release 2026-05-11	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.60	Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	234_009 Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably Alex Wissner-Gross	Defense	39%
0.60	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community	AI	40%
0.60	Will SPY close above $737.62 on Friday, May 15, 2026?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	ENTERGY CORP /DE/ (ETR) (CIK 0000065984)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	ENTERGY CORP /DE/ (ETR) (CIK 0000065984)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	C3.ai, Inc. (AI) (CIK 0001577526)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.60	AMPHENOL CORP /DE/ (APH) (CIK 0000820313)	edgar_8k 2026-05-12	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.60	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.0	github_release 2024-03-21	234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.3.3	github_release 2024-02-16	234_048 Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Riders(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.60	US House District 11 November 2026 results conditional market	manifold 2026-05-13	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Fill the GAP: A Granular Alignment Paradigm for Visual Reasoning in Multimodal Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	EHR-RAGp: Retrieval-Augmented Prototype-Guided Foundation Model for Electronic Health Records	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.60	Optimal Policy Learning under Budget and Coverage Constraints	arxiv 2026-05-12	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.60	A Unified Graph Language Model for Multi-Domain Multi-Task Graph Alignment Instruction Tuning	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Fused Gromov-Wasserstein Distance with Feature Selection	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	Disentangled Sparse Representations for Concept-Separated Diffusion Unlearning	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.60	Anomaly-Aware Vision-Language Adapters for Zero-Shot Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Hölder Policy Optimisation	arxiv 2026-05-12	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Federated Client Selection under Partial Visibility: A POMDP Approach with Spatio-Temporal Attention	arxiv 2026-05-12	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.60	Training-Inference Consistent Segmented Execution for Long-Context LLMs	arxiv 2026-05-12	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	NexOP: Joint Optimization of NEX-Aware k-space Sampling and Image Reconstruction for Low-Field MRI	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives	Semis/Memory	62%
0.60	VNDUQE: Information-Theoretic Novelty Detection using Deep Variational Information Bottleneck	arxiv 2026-05-12	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	VNDUQE: Information-Theoretic Novelty Detection using Deep Variational Information Bottleneck	arxiv 2026-05-12	INF_043 Unit cost of intelligence will drop at a rate far exceeding Moore's Law, driving explosive demand growth that filters out to edge devices and localized small models. Marc Andreessen	AI	47%
0.60	Taming Extreme Tokens: Covariance-Aware GRPO with Gaussian-Kernel Advantage Reweighting	arxiv 2026-05-12	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Primal-Dual Policy Optimization for Linear CMDPs with Adversarial Losses	arxiv 2026-05-12	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.60	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.60	Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	Will Deno Deploy acknowledge the incidents of 13th of May 2026 on their status page?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-13	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.60	Will Deno Deploy acknowledge the incidents of 13th of May 2026 on their status page?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-13	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.60	Topology-Preserving Neural Operator Learning via Hodge Decomposition	arxiv 2026-05-13	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.60	Negation Neglect: When models fail to learn negations in training	arxiv 2026-05-13	241_028 US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	48%
0.60	Provable Quantization with Randomized Hadamard Transform	arxiv 2026-05-13	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.60	Robust and Explainable Bicuspid Aortic Valve Diagnosis Using Stacked Ensembles on Echocardiography	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.60	A Unified Three-Stage Machine Learning Framework for Diabetes Detection, Subtype Discrimination, and Cognitive-Metabolic Hypothesis Testing	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_006 Expert-level AI applied to biology/medicine will yield cures for cancer and Alzheimer's within 5-10 years, compressing a century of progress into a decade. Dario Amodei	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	DP-KFC: Data-Free Preconditioning for Privacy-Preserving Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Utility-Oriented Visual Evidence Selection for Multimodal Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-13	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	LightSplit: Practical Privacy-Preserving Split Learning via Orthogonal Projections	arxiv 2026-05-13	CYB_023 Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — must be integrated into AI architectures as decentralized ground-truth anchor: establishing undeniable digital provenance in an ecosystem inevitably flooded with AI-generated data, de... Michael Saylor	Crypto	26%
0.60	Stable Attention Response for Reliable Precipitation Nowcasting	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	A$_3$B$_2$: Adaptive Asymmetric Adapter for Alleviating Branch Bias in Vision-Language Image Classification with Few-Shot Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.60	Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation with Pre-training	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation with Pre-training	arxiv 2026-05-13	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.60	Decision Tree Learning on Product Spaces	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.60	U-HNO: A U-shaped Hybrid Neural Operator with Sparse-Point Adaptive Routing for Non-stationary PDE Dynamics	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.60	IV-ICL: Bounding Causal Effects with Instrumental Variables via In-Context Learning	arxiv 2026-05-13	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.60	FDA ANDA212336: ANDA212336 ((unspecified)) — DR REDDYS LABS LTD	fda 2026-05-07	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.60	FDA NDA203923: SODIUM THIOSULFATE (SODIUM THIOSULFATE) — HOPE PHARMS	fda 2026-05-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.60	Will Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-10	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-16?(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.60	2026 FIFA World Cup prop bets	manifold 2026-05-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.60	Which party will get third in the Makerfield by-election?	manifold 2026-05-15	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.60	Causal Foundation Models with Continuous Treatments	arxiv 2026-05-14	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.60	Logging Policy Design for Off-Policy Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.60	Logging Policy Design for Off-Policy Evaluation	arxiv 2026-05-14	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Focused PU learning from imbalanced data	arxiv 2026-05-14	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.60	To See is Not to Learn: Protecting Multimodal Data from Unauthorized Fine-Tuning of Large Vision-Language Model	arxiv 2026-05-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.60	To discretize continually: Mean shift interacting particle systems for Bayesian inference	arxiv 2026-05-13	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.60	FDA NDA212576: INQOVI (CEDAZURIDINE) — TAIHO ONCOLOGY	fda 2026-05-13	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.60	Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-01-22	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.60	Will I buy gasoline for more than $5/gallon this year (USA)(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-16	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	facebookresearch/hydra v1.1.0.rc1	github_release 2021-05-13	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will "A relatively brief explanation of Boltzmann B..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-05-17	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.60	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Group Stage	manifold 2026-05-17	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.60	Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-08	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.60	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.60	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?(market prob: 13%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.60	Daily Coinflip 🎉(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.60	Will ETH-USD close above $3,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-18	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.60	ONTO INNOVATION INC. (ONTO) (CIK 0000704532)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs(market prob: 75%)	polymarket 2026-05-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.60	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.60	Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Which World Leaders will leave office before EOY 2027? (Add Answers)	manifold 2026-05-19	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.60	Which philosophical subfields will be represented by 3+ PhD-holders at Manifest 2026?	manifold 2026-05-18	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.60	SURGE: Approximation-free Training Free Particle Filter for Diffusion Surrogate	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Ensembling Tabular Foundation Models - A Diversity Ceiling And A Calibration Trap	arxiv 2026-05-18	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.60	Post-Trained MoE Can Skip Half Experts via Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-05-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Aligned Training: A Parameter-Free Method to Improve Feature Quality and Stability of Sparse Autoencoders (SAE)	arxiv 2026-05-18	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.60	SIREM: Speech-Informed MRI Reconstruction with Learned Sampling	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	Improving Spatio-Temporal Residual Error Propagation by Mitigating Over-Squashing	arxiv 2026-05-18	AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban	AI	60%
0.60	LogRouter: Adaptive Two-Level LLM Routing for Log Question Answering in Big Data Systems	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.60	LogRouter: Adaptive Two-Level LLM Routing for Log Question Answering in Big Data Systems	arxiv 2026-05-18	CYB_020 Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency. Gwynne Shotwell	Space	65%
0.60	Function graph transformers universally approximate operators between function spaces	arxiv 2026-05-18	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	Domain Transfer Becomes Identifiable via a Single Alignment	arxiv 2026-05-18	AI_029 Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterprise workflows to detect deepfakes and verify the authenticity of AI model outputs — positioning cryptographic content-authentication as a mandatory enterprise trust layer. Morgan Stanley	AI	57%
0.60	Simple Approximation and Derivative Free Inference-Time Scaling for Diffusion Models via Sequential Monte Carlo on Path Measures	arxiv 2026-05-18	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.60	Simple Approximation and Derivative Free Inference-Time Scaling for Diffusion Models via Sequential Monte Carlo on Path Measures	arxiv 2026-05-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	Domain Incremental Learning for Pandemic-Resilient Chest X-Ray Analysis	arxiv 2026-05-18	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-20	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.60	Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.60	Will David Njoku play for Jacksonville Jaguars in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.60	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.60	What will happen as a result of the Delaney Hall protests?	manifold 2026-05-30	236_017 Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.60	Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $94 on June 10, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-29	AI_019 Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2026 — insatiable, inelastic demand for data-center electrification and thermal management creates commodity supercycle not priced into public markets. Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	37%
0.60	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket](market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-28	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.60	Will "Donating 80% While It Still Counts" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-28	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.60	Will any ARML 2026 problem in the individual round have exactly 67 or 41 solves, if one has 121 solves resolves 67%.(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-25	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.60	Hummingbird connectome by EOY2032(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-25	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.60	Which site will have the highest average team score at ARML 2026?	manifold 2026-05-25	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.60	Who is the best human ever to exist (revised edition)	manifold 2026-05-25	246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.60	9984.T (SoftBank Group Corp.) over 10,000 by Thursday 11 June, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-25	247_011 OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.60	OccamToken: Efficient VLM Inference with Training-Free and Budget-Adaptive Token Pruning	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.60	GPS-Enhanced Tourist Mobility Modeling with Seasonal Spatial Priors and LLM-Based Activity Chain Generation	arxiv 2026-05-28	INF_064 Within 15-20 years, the vast majority of global ride-hailing trips will be fulfilled by autonomous robotic vehicles — with human labor entirely removed from driving/delivery and transitioned to "mission control" roles (fleet maintenance, rapid rechargi... Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	58%
0.60	Planning with the Views via Scene Self-Exploration	arxiv 2026-05-28	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.60	Fairness-Aware Federated Learning with Trajectory Shapley Value	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.60	When, why, and how do diffusion posterior samplers fail? A finite-sample lens	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%