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63,896 candidate doc → node links pending adjudication. Each was auto-generated by cosine similarity ≥ 0.55 between document and prediction embeddings (bge-base-en-v1.5, 768-dim). Showing page 12 of 34, 500 rows by similarity. Adjudicating updates doc_node_links.reviewed=true with the chosen polarity, writes per-link rows to audit_log, and removes the row from this queue. Phase 4 inference will use confirmed corroborates/contradicts links as Bayesian evidence.
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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.62 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 5?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 5?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 5?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06?(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 7?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.62 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 10?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-12-26 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will Albert Rusnák win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13?(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.62 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.62 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-25 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-12-25 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.62 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2025-10-10 | SPC_007 SpaceX will NOT pursue a traditional IPO — instead, the aerospace company will go public via a reverse merger with Tesla, allowing Musk to consolidate control and power over his two seminal assets into a single capitalization table. Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 20% | ||
| 0.62 | Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-29 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03?(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 4?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5?(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 10?(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.62 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.62 | Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 4?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 58%) | polymarket 2026-02-05 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.62 | Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5?(market prob: 87%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Dallas Cowboys next?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.62 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06?(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.62 | Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-01-15 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8?(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 93%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will United States win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-01-06 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11?(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Trump out as President by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-11 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-25 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.62 | Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-03-02 | 230_010 Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2025-10-10 | 230_010 Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 235_001 Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 26% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5?(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.62 | Spread: Pistons (-3.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2026-01-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 15?(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.62 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.62 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? (market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | 241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | |
| 0.62 | Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.62 | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | 10% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1?(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5?(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will FC Universitario win on 2026-06-19?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 5?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Will Solana dip to $60 in June?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?(market prob: 82%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 8?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.62 | Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-01-15 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8?(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.62 | Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08?(market prob: 79%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.62 | Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.62 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.62 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-04 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.62 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will D.K. Metcalf be traded?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-02-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 237_025 We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. Peter Diamandis | AI | 59% | |
| 0.62 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2025-11-03 | SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail | Labor/Jobs | 37% | |
| 0.62 | Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-10 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 230_010 Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5?(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 5?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 6?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.62 | Spread: Pistons (-3.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will XRP reach $1.80 in May?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will XRP reach $1.80 in May?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.62 | Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.62 | Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 15?(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-10-15 | 231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 39% | |
| 0.62 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2025-10-15 | 234_007 Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | |
| 0.62 | Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-03-01 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.62 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.62 | Will NRG win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 26% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_030 DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.62 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Solana dip to $40 in June?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Will United States win on 2026-06-12?(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-01-06 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.62 | Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2025-07-24 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.62 | Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 29%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.62 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-05 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.62 | Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.62 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08?(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.62 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2025-11-24 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 240_030 Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 35% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 54% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | ||
| 0.62 | Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by May 31?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.62 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jong (+2.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2025-11-25 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.62 | Will Lynn Vision win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 4?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.62 | Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Carolina Panthers next?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.62 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-08?(market prob: 85%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Arizona Cardinals next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.62 | Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.62 | Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2025-07-24 | 229_004 By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. Brett Adcock | Geopolitics | 41% | |
| 0.62 | Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Trump out as President by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-11 | 234_034 Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2025-09-29 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.62 | Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs SK Gaming (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | 235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.62 | Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.62 | Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.62 | Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-29 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2?(market prob: 27%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 5?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.62 | Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.62 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.62 | Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-13?(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-23 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-10-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-10-15 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20?(market prob: 69%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-23 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-06-21?(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 231_051 Entire generation growing up with crypto (Ethereum, Bitcoin) as means of exchange will have near-zero switching cost. Salim Ismail | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.62 | Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.62 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?(market prob: 80%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09?(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-12-26 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C.(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.62 | Will France win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Trump out as President by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-26 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 26% | |
| 0.62 | Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 26% | |
| 0.62 | Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.62 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2025-11-03 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2025-09-29 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-03-24 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-02 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-10 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.62 | Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-20 | 234_009 Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably Alex Wissner-Gross | Defense | 39% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.62 | Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.62 | Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 235_041 Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.62 | Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19?(market prob: 76%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.62 | Will NRG win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.62 | Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Teichmann (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.62 | Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 15%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 4?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?(market prob: 68%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_040 AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin Alex Wissner-Gross | Crypto | 26% | |
| 0.62 | Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.62 | LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.62 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June?(market prob: 81%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | SEM_040 Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterprise software firms by 10x to 30x in performance. Michael Saylor | Finance/Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2025-11-04 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.62 | Will De'Von Achane be traded?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-17 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-08 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.62 | Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.62 | LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.62 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-07-21 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.62 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2025-11-03 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.62 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2025-11-03 | FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 55% | |
| 0.62 | Will Trump visit China by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-26 | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 32% | |
| 0.62 | Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.62 | Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2025-10-10 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.62 | Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-12-10 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.62 | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.62 | Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-29 | SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson | Capital Markets | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-04-30?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-28 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2025-07-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | |
| 0.62 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.62 | 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 230_010 Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 47% | ||
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 236_008 First $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come online Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 53% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 20% | |
| 0.62 | Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2025-10-15 | ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-08-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Solana reach $170 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.62 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.62 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-03-17 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.62 | Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-10-09 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.62 | Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6?(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | |
| 0.62 | Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-01-15 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will Peru win on 2026-06-08?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 247_038 Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 48% | |
| 0.62 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2025-11-04 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10?(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.62 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-03-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.62 | Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Will France win on 2026-06-16?(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Spread: United States (-1.5)(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.62 | Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.62 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13?(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-07-21 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.62 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.62 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-31 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.62 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Kash Patel out by April 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-03 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.62 | Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | |
| 0.62 | Crude Oil all time high by April 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2025-09-17 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | ||
| 0.62 | Spread: Lightning (-1.5)(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.62 | Games Total: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.62 | Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-09-29 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.62 | Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-12-10 | 246_001 SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 79% | |
| 0.62 | Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.62 | Trump out as President before 2027?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2025-11-05 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2025-10-10 | SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin | AI/China | 45% | ||
| 0.62 | Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-08 | AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.62 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.62 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2025-12-16 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.62 | Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.62 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | |
| 0.62 | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% |