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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.58	Learning from Your Own Mistakes: Constructing Learnable Micro-Reflective Trajectories for Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-17	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Where Will They Go? Modelling Multimodal Pedestrian Manoeuvres from Ego-centric Videos	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Low-resource Language Discrimination Towards Chinese Dialects with Transfer learning and Data Augmentation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.58	The Collins-Soper kernel from a vacuum soft function	arxiv 2026-06-17	AI_016 The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	82%
0.58	Hydrodynamics of perfect fluids with anomalies from the fermionic path integral	arxiv 2026-06-17	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	The pole truth: an analytical graviton propagator from Asymptotic Safety	arxiv 2026-06-16	234_041 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.58	Spread: Brazil (-2.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Spread: Brazil (-3.5)(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will DELL close above $470 this week?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-19	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	This market resolves to whatever the comments convince me to resolve it to(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-06-18	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.58	Implicit Semantic-Aware Communication Based on Hypergraph Reasoning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	SIMBA: ABidirectional Retrieval Forward Simulation Framework for Modeling FY-4A GIIRS Hyperspectral Infrared Radiances Toward NWP Applications	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Scalable Training of Spatially Grounded 2D Vision-Language Models for Radiology	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Train, Retrieve, or Both? A Four-Arm Head-to-Head for Correct Statutory Citation on the Ontario Residential Tenancies Act	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_010 As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executors across digital networks, potential for catastrophic systemic failure scales exponentially — without rigorous legislative oversight + embedded algorithmic surveillance, auton... Daniella Amodei	AI	56%
0.58	PaAno+: Multiscale Encoding and Cross-Variable Attention for Time Series Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-06-18	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	QMaxCal: Path-Space Regularization for Open Quantum Control via Girsanov's Theorem	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.58	3D-DLP: Self-Supervised 3D Object-Centric Scene Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Pitch Spelling Jazz Lead Sheets, Solo Transcriptions, Classical Piano and Monophonic Scores	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Towards 3D karst underwater scene reconstruction from rotating sonar data	arxiv 2026-06-18	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.58	On the Renormalization Group Flow of Active Flocks	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	Macroscopic Black-Hole Remnants in a Nonlocal Field Theory: Towards Hawking Radiation in SFT	arxiv 2026-06-18	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Dynamical Tidal Response of Neutron Stars: from Effective Field Theory to Gravitational Waveforms	arxiv 2026-06-17	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	FDA ANDA219370: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — AUSON	fda 2026-06-09	AI_031 AGI will be defined by its ability to autonomously formulate novel scientific hypotheses — effectively solving '100 years of biology' in a fraction of the historical time required, via continuous hypothesis-generation and experimental iteration. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	51%
0.58	Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.58	Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2025-12-19	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Bradley Barcola be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Spread: Portugal (-1.5)(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Shohei Ohtani hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will Shohei Ohtani hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?(market prob: 98%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	Will Jeremy Peña have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Oneil Cruz have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Will Filipe Luis be the next manager of SSC Napoli?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-19	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.58	Spread: Senegal (-1.5)(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	how many animals will i see tomorrow	manifold 2026-06-22	229_031 At some point, you'll walk out in a city (likely San Francisco first) and see more humanoids than humans. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.58	Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 87%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.58	Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-04-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-30	S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)	mars_uncrewed_landing	50%
0.58	Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026?(market prob: 76%)	manifold 2026-06-23	COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	48%
0.58	Against Proxy Optimization	arxiv 2026-06-22	241_018 Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox) Eric Schmidt	Energy	55%
0.58	Bagpiper-TTS: Natural Language Guided Universal Speech Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-22	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Deep Learning-Based Sign Language Recognition from Videos and Cross-Lingual Translation to Indian Vernaculars	arxiv 2026-06-21	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	Chains That See, Answers That Don't: A Multi-Aspect Evaluation Recipe for Forced Chain-of-Thought on Video-MME	arxiv 2026-06-22	232_006 YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	51%
0.58	Enhancing LLMs for Graph Tasks via Graph-aware LoRA Generation	arxiv 2026-06-21	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	ROMEVA: Geometry-Preserving Vocabulary Expansion for Roman Urdu Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-21	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Bounds on nonlinear electrodynamics via resummed relative entropy	arxiv 2026-06-22	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Bounds on nonlinear electrodynamics via resummed relative entropy	arxiv 2026-06-22	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	Steering a warp drive without exotic matter	arxiv 2026-06-21	234_045 Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physics advances Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.58	An Interplay Between Fractional Calculus and Holographic Dark Energy	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	FDA BLA761324: EPKINLY (EPCORITAMAB-BYSP) — GENMAB US, INC.	fda 2026-06-17	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.58	FDA ANDA204246: FYREMADEL (GANIRELIX ACETATE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-06-16	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.58	Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.58	Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will I be promoted to Gold league or higher by the time my league closes(market prob: 93%)	manifold 2026-06-24	248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.58	Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?	manifold 2026-06-24	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.58	Who will win the 2026 ny13 general election?	manifold 2026-06-24	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.58	Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by December 31?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-06-24	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.58	LLMs Prompted for Legal Context Object More: Overrefusal from Small On-Premises LLMs in Criminal Legal Context	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic	AI	80%
0.58	Predicting Poets' Origins from Verse: A Computational Analysis of Regional Linguistic Fingerprints in the Complete Tang Poems	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.58	Predicting Poets' Origins from Verse: A Computational Analysis of Regional Linguistic Fingerprints in the Complete Tang Poems	arxiv 2026-06-23	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.58	Integrated Sensing and Communications for Real-time Avatar Control in XR over 5G	arxiv 2026-06-22	AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey	Crypto	28%
0.58	Compact Object-Level Representations with Open-Vocabulary Understanding for Indoor Visual Relocalization	arxiv 2026-06-23	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	The Topology of the Universe	arxiv 2026-06-23	232_048 Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.58	Additional constraints for the tensor bootstrap	arxiv 2026-06-23	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Zeta-regularization and natural boundaries: Sums and products of integers and primes	arxiv 2026-06-23	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	Neutrinoless double $β$ decay and leptogenesis in seesaw model	arxiv 2026-06-23	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	8%
0.58	New Rotating Black Hole in Electromagnetic Fields: Cosmological Horizon without Cosmological Constant	arxiv 2026-06-22	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	New Rotating Black Hole in Electromagnetic Fields: Cosmological Horizon without Cosmological Constant	arxiv 2026-06-22	232_015 AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.58	FDA ANDA205177: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ANI PHARMS	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Brandon Aiyuk play for New England Patriots in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-23	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.58	Will Austin Reaves play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Spread: Sweden (-1.5)(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will I publish my personal site/blog this month?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-22	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.58	Will NWS issue a new Beach Hazards Statement for the San Francisco Peninsula Coast between June 21 and June 26, 2026(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-20	COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	48%
0.58	Anatomically-conditioned Latent Diffusion Model for Data-Efficient Few-Shot Cross-Domain 3D Glioma MRI Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Sarashina2.2-TTS: Tackling Kanji Polyphony in Japanese Speech Generation via Data Scaling and Targeted Data Synthesis	arxiv 2026-06-24	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	Laplace--Fisher Gate Identities for Optimal Matrix-Gated Blended Score Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.58	Low-Cost High-Order Singular Value Decomposition for Tensor-Based Reconstruction from Sparse Sensor Measurements: Urban Flow and Air-Quality Applications	arxiv 2026-06-23	SPC_017 Startups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o... Jennifer Li	AI	63%
0.58	Hybrid-IR: Dual-Path Hybrid Retrieval with Iterative Reasoning for Complex Medical Question Answering	arxiv 2026-06-24	CYB_006 When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure their own long-term memory banks dynamically — agentically using tools to explore search spaces, understand context, recognize what's missing, and follow algorithmic curiosity — they cr... Kevin Weil	AI	63%
0.58	Multilingual Hematology Visual Question Answering Dataset	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Learning Robot Visual Navigation in Crowds via Intention-Aware Scene Representations	arxiv 2026-06-24	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Invariant Kalman filtering for extended pose estimation in multi-IMU articulated rigid-body systems	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	FDA NDA215960: UTEBZI (TEBIPENEM, PIVOXIL) — GLAXOSMITHKLINE LLC	fda 2026-06-17	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	83%
0.58	Spread: Belgium (-1.5)(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Playoffs(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran?(market prob: 17%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	How many seats will our model's most-likely Senate map be wrong on?	manifold 2026-06-26	235_015 GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? [Polymarket](market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-25	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.58	Event-Aware Instructed Assistant for Referring Video Segmentation	arxiv 2026-06-25	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.58	Explainable Ensemble-Based Machine Learning Models for Detecting the Presence of Cirrhosis in Hepatitis C Patients	arxiv 2026-06-25	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Hybrid privacy-aware semantic search: SVD-truncated document geometry and CKKS-encrypted query reranking under a restricted threat model	arxiv 2026-06-24	231_017 A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	Cross-Head Attention Uplift Network with Inverse Propensity Score under Unobserved Confounding	arxiv 2026-06-25	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.58	Transformer-Based Classification of Bacterial Raman Spectra with LOOCV	arxiv 2026-06-25	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.58	Geometric Gradient Rectification for Safe Open-Set Semi-Supervised Learning	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Accelerated sampling using SamAdams variable timesteps and position-adaptive Langevin dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-25	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	Listening Like a Judge: A Music-Aware Framework for Automatic Singing Performance Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.58	DualEval: Joint Model-Item Calibration for Unified LLM Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-24	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.58	De Sitter Representations	arxiv 2026-06-24	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Spread: Argentina (-2.5)(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.58	Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	If this person is elected president in 2028, will the Insurrection Act be formally invoked by January 21st 2032?	manifold 2026-06-26	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.58	FDA ANDA040860: CARISOPRODOL, ASPIRIN AND CODEINE PHOSPHATE (ASPIRIN) — INGENUS PHARMS NJ	fda 2026-06-18	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.58	FDA ANDA077184: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — SUN PHARM INDS INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA ANDA210162: BUPRENORPHINE (BUPRENORPHINE) — MYLAN TECH VIATRIS	fda 2026-06-18	245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.58	LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Spread: Netherlands (-5.5)(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)	mars_uncrewed_landing	50%
0.58	Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.58	Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Who of the unstable SMP will post this week?	manifold 2026-06-28	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.58	U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? (market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-28	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.58	Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi	Other	53%
0.58	Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Spread: France (-2.5)(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Shohei Ohtani strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.58	Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5(market prob: 86%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Spread: New York Liberty (-2.5)(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	55%
0.58	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.58	Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5)(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.58	Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-30	234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead	AI	41%
0.58	Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-30	241_009 Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AI Eric Schmidt	Labor/Jobs	51%
0.58	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 416 : Best word competition.(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-30	230_029 Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.58	will Darren go on one date per day between July 3rd to July 6th.(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-29	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.58	C$^{2}$R: Cross-sample Consistency Regularization Mitigates Feature Splitting and Absorption in Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Bridging the NISQ and Fault-Tolerant Regimes: Generative-ML-Assisted Quantum Selected CI for Molecular Simulations	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_030 Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... Jensen Huang	Space	33%
0.58	OLIVE: View-Augmented Latent Prediction with Waveform Reconstruction for Speech SSL	arxiv 2026-06-29	232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.58	AMR: Adaptive Modality Routing for Multimodal Polyglot Speaker Identification	arxiv 2026-06-28	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Realtime Wind Estimation using Low Cost Quadrotor Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles	arxiv 2026-06-29	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.58	Seeing Touch from Motion: A Unified Modality-Aware Visuo-Tactile Policy with Tactile Motion Correlation	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Understanding Color Confinement through Quantum Reference Frames and Relational Observables	arxiv 2026-06-29	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.58	Observables in Schrödinger CFTs: How Aliens Built the Pyramids	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Belgium be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-06-03	INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor	Crypto	29%
0.58	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5(market prob: 83%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	What the total amount of mana will manifolders managram me?	manifold 2026-06-30	S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028	compute_scale	40%
0.58	How many problems written by me will appear on the 2027 ELMO?	manifold 2026-06-30	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.58	巴拉圭战胜了德国欸(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-30	231_010 China has peaked and is going to be on descent. Salim Ismail	Geopolitics	44%
0.58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-06-29	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Constrained Online Convex Optimization without Slater's Condition	arxiv 2026-06-30	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Learning Gaussian Graphical Models from a Glauber Trajectory Without Mixing	arxiv 2026-06-30	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Learning Gaussian Graphical Models from a Glauber Trajectory Without Mixing	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Machine Learning-based Feedback Linearization Control of Quadrotor Subject to Unmodeled Dynamics	arxiv 2026-06-30	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.58	SkillSpotter: Pose-Aware Multi-View Skilled Action Detection and Grading in Ego-Exo Videos	arxiv 2026-06-30	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Visualizing High-Dimensional Graph Embeddings via Informed Multi-View Projections	arxiv 2026-06-30	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Structure-Regularized Interpretable TCR-Epitope Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	The Label Imitation Game: Turing Test Network for Zero-Shot Pseudo-Label Pruning	arxiv 2026-06-29	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Austin Reaves play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Colombia leading at halftime?(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5(market prob: 60%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs 9z (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs 9z (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-07-02	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will I qualify for RMM 2027?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-07-01	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.58	PAPA: Online Personalized Active Preference Alignment	arxiv 2026-07-01	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	FDA ANDA202075: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — STRIDES PHARMA	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	FDA NDA219627: AMBELVIST (GADOQUATRANE) — BAYER HEALTHCARE	fda 2026-06-12	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA NDA022272: OXYCONTIN (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — KNOA PHARMA	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA NDA214231: ZEGALOGUE (DASIGLUCAGON HYDROCHLORIDE) — ZEALAND PHARMA	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.58	FDA ANDA201384: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — SUN PHARM	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%