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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.58	Model Graph Inductive Learning for Knowledge Graph Completion	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	Variance Reduction for Non-Log-Concave Sampling with Applications to Inverse Problems	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.58	Focus When Necessary: Adaptive Routing and Collaborative Grounding for Training-Free Visual Grounding	arxiv 2026-06-15	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	PROSE: Training-Free Egocentric Scene Registration with Vision-Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.58	MVOFormer: Flow-Semantic Transformer for Robust Monocular Visual Odometry	arxiv 2026-06-15	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.58	Friction Characterization of a Cable-Driven Differential Actuation System for Lower-Limb Exoskeletons	arxiv 2026-06-14	INF_035 Advanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo... Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)	Semis	65%
0.58	FDA ANDA204754: LEVETIRACETAM (LEVETIRACETAM) — AIPING PHARM INC	fda 2026-06-08	247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	55%
0.58	FDA BLA761119: VYEPTI (EPTINEZUMAB-JJMR) — Lundbeck Seattle BioPharmaceuticals, Inc.	fda 2026-06-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	ReAge3D: Re-Aging 3D Faces with View Consistency	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Vision-language models for chest radiography do not always need the image	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	Another Look at Log-PCA for Probability Measures: A Dynamical Formulation and Statistical Convergence	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	ConSA: Controllable Sparsity in Hybrid Attention via Learnable Allocation	arxiv 2026-06-16	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-04-30	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.58	Will Fernando Tatis Jr. lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 24%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.58	Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.58	scGTN: Deep Siamese Graph Transformer Network for Single-cell RNA Sequencing Clustering	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_024 The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security... Eric Schmidt	Defense	17%
0.58	JourneyFormer: Encoding Airbnb Guest Journey with Sequence Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_013 The most resilient corporate moats in agentic commerce will NOT be built on software logic but on proprietary 'data flywheels' — platforms aggregating unbiased real-time consumer-intent data via continuous streams from millions of interacting autonomou... Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	52%
0.58	Seed-Guided Semi-Supervised Clustering by A-Contrario Anomaly Detection	arxiv 2026-06-17	CYB_012 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... Alex Finn	AI	44%
0.58	Lost in a Single Vector: Improving Long-Document Retrieval with Chunk Evidence Aggregation	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya	Markets/Stocks	38%
0.58	Lost in a Single Vector: Improving Long-Document Retrieval with Chunk Evidence Aggregation	arxiv 2026-06-17	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	Motion-Focused Latent Action Enables Cross-Embodiment VLA Training from Human EgoVideos	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.58	Mutation and crossover of simplicial complexes	arxiv 2026-06-17	239_032 Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.58	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 2.1.3	github_release 2026-05-26	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.58	Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.58	Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Max Clark win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	Will Ralsei Transition by the end of Deltarune?	manifold 2026-06-18	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.58	Interpretable Sperm Morphology Classification via Attention-Guided Deep Learning	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Triangular Consistency as a Universal Constraint for Learning Optical Flow	arxiv 2026-06-18	232_008 Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. Ben Horowitz	AI	46%
0.58	Adversarial Bandit Optimization with Globally Bounded Perturbations to Convex Losses	arxiv 2026-06-18	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.58	REDACT: A Systematically Controlled Multilingual Benchmark for Personal Information Detection	arxiv 2026-06-18	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.58	Fast Human Attention Prediction for Fixation-guided Active Perception in Autonomous Navigation	arxiv 2026-06-18	AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price	Education	49%
0.58	Many-body chirality of topological stabilizer states	arxiv 2026-06-18	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	Quantization of Brane-Skyrmions via Physics-Informed Neural Networks	arxiv 2026-06-18	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)(market prob: 38%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Spread: Japan (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-27	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.58	Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2026-06-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will Bradley Barcola be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.58	Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	Will a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake occur before September 1, 2026?(market prob: 20%)	manifold 2026-06-21	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.58	Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will the Whalesayer Coinflip trigger an unspecified trigger condition?(market prob: 1%)	manifold 2026-06-22	248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	53%
0.58	Will silver hit $60/ oz by close on Friday?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-22	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-03-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2025-11-18	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.58	Trump Lost parliament Support Before 2028(market prob: 93%)	manifold 2026-06-23	FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	55%
0.58	Data Selection Through Iterative Self-Filtering for Vision-Language Settings	arxiv 2026-06-22	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.58	Polycepta: Object-Centric Appearance Estimation for Multi-Object Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.58	Rethinking Object-Centric Representations for Video Dynamics Modeling	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Patient-Aware Contrastive Learning Preserves Per-Patient Structure in RR-Interval Representations	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	FairBED: A Bayesian Experimental Design Approach to Gathering Fairer Data	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Time Series Classification through Diffeomorphic Time Warping (DiffTW)	arxiv 2026-06-22	INF_036 AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... Dara Khosrowshahi	AI	61%
0.58	Physics-Informed Modeling for Wood Thermal Analysis and Prediction	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Unlocking In-Context Learning in Audio-Language Models from Decentralized Medical Audio	arxiv 2026-06-22	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Chains That See, Answers That Don't: A Multi-Aspect Evaluation Recipe for Forced Chain-of-Thought on Video-MME	arxiv 2026-06-22	IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt	Education	48%
0.58	Learning-Augmented Algorithms for Online Vertex Cover	arxiv 2026-06-22	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.58	Enhancing LLMs for Graph Tasks via Graph-aware LoRA Generation	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Self-Stigma Is Not a Monolith, but Generic Empathy Is: Persona-Conditioned LLM Support for People Who Use Drugs	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba	AI	65%
0.58	Automated sign detection across the Electronic Babylonian Library: A large-scale dataset and end-to-end cuneiform OCR pipeline	arxiv 2026-06-21	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.58	Bounds on nonlinear electrodynamics via resummed relative entropy	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	FDA ANDA211228: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ASCENT PHARMS INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA ANDA214209: SUMATRIPTAN (SUMATRIPTAN) — CIPLA	fda 2026-06-12	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.58	FDA ANDA205814: HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (HYDROMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — AUROLIFE PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	facebookresearch/tensor-layouts v0.2.0	github_release 2026-04-06	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.58	Will Marcus Semien win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.58	Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.58	Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Will Trump and Putin not meet?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2025-09-30	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.58	Will Natasha Howard have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.58	Will Natasha Howard have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will control of the House and Senate be called by midnight (PT) on election night in the 2026 US Midterms?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-06-24	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.58	Who will win the 2026 ny13 general election?	manifold 2026-06-24	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by August 31?(market prob: 92%)	manifold 2026-06-24	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.58	RetiSEM: Generalising Causal Models for Fragmented Biomedical Data	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	video-SALMONN-R$^3$: Learning to ReWatch, ReAsk, and ReAnswer for Efficient Video Understanding	arxiv 2026-06-23	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.58	Cycle-Consistent Neural Explanation of Formal Verification Certificates	arxiv 2026-06-23	229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock	Robotics	69%
0.58	Entity Resolution via Batched Oracle Queries	arxiv 2026-06-23	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	Female-RHINO: A Real-Time Scanner-Integrated Framework for Automated Quantitative Uterine MRI Analysis and Structured Reporting	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.58	Towards Federated Long-Tailed Graph Learning: An Energy-Guided Dual Decoupling Approach	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Faithful by Construction: Claim-Anchored Attribution for Multi-Document Summarization	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.58	JupOtter: Cell-Level Bug Detection in Jupyter Notebooks	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Polycepta: Object-Centric Appearance Estimation for Multi-Object Tracking	arxiv 2026-06-22	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.58	Automated Residual Plot Assessment With the R Package autovi and the Shiny Application autovi.web	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_019 Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from singular query-response to continuous autonomous agentic loops required for scientific discovery, underlying computational costs surge exponentially; GP... Kevin Weil	AI	70%
0.58	Low-rank Updates in Slowly Time-varying Graphs for Spatial-Temporal Signal Interpolation	arxiv 2026-06-22	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.58	Stochastic Expectation Maximization for Robust State-Space Radio Interferometric Imaging	arxiv 2026-06-22	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.58	Aspect-Based Sentiment Evolution and its Correlation with Review Rounds in Multi-Round Peer Reviews: A Deep Learning Approach	arxiv 2026-06-23	AUT_019 Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from singular query-response to continuous autonomous agentic loops required for scientific discovery, underlying computational costs surge exponentially; GP... Kevin Weil	AI	70%
0.58	From Open Waters to Enclosed Cabins: ProteusVPR for Cross-Scene Visual Place Recognition in Maritime Perception and Cabin Inspection	arxiv 2026-06-23	SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	64%
0.58	FDA ANDA077712: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA ANDA204459: OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYMORPHONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — AUROLIFE PHARMA LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-24	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.58	Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5(market prob: 76%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Spread: Japan (-2.5)(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (SEDG) (CIK 0001419612)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	GENERAL ELECTRIC CO (GE) (CIK 0000040545)	edgar_8k 2026-06-25	240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.58	FedReLa: Imbalanced Federated Learning via Re-Labeling	arxiv 2026-06-24	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	An iterative energy-based multimodal transformer for joint retrieval of wheat soil moisture, leaf area index, and plant height from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 time series	arxiv 2026-06-23	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Laplace--Fisher Gate Identities for Optimal Matrix-Gated Blended Score Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-23	CMQ_015 Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	50%
0.58	Three Buddhist Vocabularies: Computational Stylometry of the English Pali Canon across Sutta, Vinaya, and Abhidhamma	arxiv 2026-06-24	AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy	AI	90%
0.58	FDA ANDA207419: OXYCODONE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — ASCENT PHARMS INC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA ANDA076758: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA ANDA076758: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — SPECGX LLC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.58	FDA ANDA211023: HYDROCODONE BITARTRATE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — WES PHARMA INC	fda 2026-06-18	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.58	New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Uzbekistan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.58	Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.58	Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	When Fable access returns, will it be available as part of the monthly paid plan?(market prob: 76%)	manifold 2026-06-26	236_037 Transportation will shift from ownership to subscription/access model Salim Ismail	Auto/Transport	44%
0.58	3D Spatial Pattern Matching	arxiv 2026-06-25	230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.58	fTNN: a tensor neural network for fractional PDEs	arxiv 2026-06-25	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	Comparing BERT Sentence-Pair Classification and Few-Shot LLM Prompting for Detecting Threat and Solution Framing in German Climate News	arxiv 2026-06-25	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	The Effect of Topological Defects and Magnetic Flux on Fully-Heavy Tetraquarks and Mass Spectra of Heavy Quarkonia Using the Analytical Exact Iteration Method	arxiv 2026-06-25	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	Approximating Feynman integrals using complete monotonicity and Stieltjes properties	arxiv 2026-06-25	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.58	Approximating Feynman integrals using complete monotonicity and Stieltjes properties	arxiv 2026-06-25	CYB_027 Bostrom's orthogonality thesis — an AI system can possess supreme unfathomable intelligence while simultaneously harboring final goals completely indifferent or actively hostile to human survival; intelligence and human morality are completely independ... Nick Bostrom	AI	50%
0.58	Spread: DR Congo (-1.5)(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	Will Mookie Betts win the 2026 National League MVP Award?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-02-18	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?(market prob: 99%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Spread: Austria (-1.5)(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.58	Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-25	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.58	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 0.5(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Bristow Group Inc. (VTOL) (CIK 0001525221)	edgar_8k 2026-06-26	238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	55%
0.58	FDA ANDA075824: BUTORPHANOL TARTRATE (BUTORPHANOL TARTRATE) — HIKMA	fda 2026-06-18	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.58	FDA ANDA040260: OXYCODONE AND ASPIRIN (ASPIRIN) — SUN PHARM INDUSTRIES	fda 2026-06-18	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.58	Will Logan Webb strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Spread: Brazil (-1.5)(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.58	Will Marin Čilić be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Stefanos Tsitsipas be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.58	Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.58	Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.58	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.58	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2025-11-24	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.58	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?(market prob: 57%)	polymarket 2026-06-01	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.58	Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.58	Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-26	234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.58	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 4.5(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.58	Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.58	Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?(market prob: 22%)	polymarket 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.58	Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will the Democrats win at least 222 seats? // Will Trump be impeached during his second term?	manifold 2026-06-29	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.58	Composer 3 released today?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-06-29	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.58	Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in August 2026?(market prob: 56%)	manifold 2026-06-29	234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin	Defense	50%
0.58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket](market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-06-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Shohei Ohtani strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.58	Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?(market prob: 18%)	polymarket 2026-06-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Will Carlos Rodón strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.58	United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5(market prob: 59%)	polymarket 2026-06-27	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.58	Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-06-30	236_040 CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.58	Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	20%
0.58	Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.58	Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs MAGICOS - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-29	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.58	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-06-23	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.58	Will anyone finish five chicken bowls in 20 minutes at RSI 2026?(market prob: 16%)	manifold 2026-06-30	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.58	How will Pxie's lawsuit against Destiny end?	manifold 2026-06-30	240_007 Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIA Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	38%
0.58	C$^{2}$R: Cross-sample Consistency Regularization Mitigates Feature Splitting and Absorption in Sparse Autoencoders	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	A Multi-task Mixture of Experts Framework for Malware Classification, Packing Detection, and Family Attribution	arxiv 2026-06-29	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.58	Curvature-Guided Sheaf Diffusion for Unsupervised Community Detection on Heterophilic Graphs	arxiv 2026-06-29	CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn	AI	55%
0.58	IBRSteG: Learning a Generalizable Steganography Framework for 3D Gaussian Splatting	arxiv 2026-06-29	IND_013 General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidimensional continuous domains — DreamerV3 + world-model research demonstrates scalable algorithms using latent imagination outperform traditional reinforcement learning; future... Jimmy Ba	AI	79%
0.58	CW-B: Class Weighted Boosting Framework for Imbalance Resilient Multi Class Cardiac Phenotyping	arxiv 2026-06-29	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.58	ARKD: Adaptive Reinforcement Learning-Guided Bidirectional KL Divergence Distillation for Text Generation	arxiv 2026-06-29	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.58	ReMAP-PET: Beyond Visual Understanding -- Learning Region-Guided Metabolic Alignment Semantics from Brain PET	arxiv 2026-06-28	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.58	ITSPACE: Monotone Gaussian Optimal Transport Updates	arxiv 2026-06-29	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.58	Predict, Reuse, and Repair: Accelerating Dynamic Sparse Attention for Long-Context LLM Decoding	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_046 Sustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exabytes of DRAM demand by 2027 — up to 77% of global supply. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	56%
0.58	RenderFormer++: Scalable and Physically Grounded Feed-Forward Neural Rendering	arxiv 2026-06-29	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.58	OLIVE: View-Augmented Latent Prediction with Waveform Reconstruction for Speech SSL	arxiv 2026-06-29	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%