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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 237_013 Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction. Alex Finn | Macro/Economy | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 26%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-01-08 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.57 | Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?(market prob: 85%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2025-11-25 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.57 | Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-05-29 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | ||
| 0.57 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Spurs (-2.5)(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | La Laguna Tenerife vs. Real Madrid(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.57 | Will England win?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Spurs (-6.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.57 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-01-04 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026?(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Tyreek Hill play for the Minnesota Vikings next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.57 | T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?(market prob: 29%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-04-13 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | Will Jelena Ostapenko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.57 | Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Will Alec Pierce be traded?(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.57 | Will Germán Berterame win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Will Albert Rusnák win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.57 | United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 22%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.57 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.57 | LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 85%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | |
| 0.57 | Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-24 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.57 | Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.57 | New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.57 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?(market prob: 83%) | polymarket 2025-12-30 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.57 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.57 | Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.57 | Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Will Brandon Woodruff win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-18 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.57 | Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | |
| 0.57 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-17 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.57 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.57 | Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.57 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.57 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? (market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-04-12 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | ||
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Any Other Score?(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-10 | COD_ROB_001 Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 Codex Research Pack | Robotics | 24% | ||
| 0.57 | San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.57 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.57 | New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.57 | Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.57 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.57 | Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Austria?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Pistons (-10.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-23 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Pistons (-9.5)(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Iran leadership change by May 31?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-01 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Fnatic vs Solary - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 50% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-12 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan | Macro/Economy | 72% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 246_002 SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Pistons (-4.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Eliakim Coulibaly(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Lakers vs. Thunder(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Michael Mmoh(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 24% | |
| 0.56 | Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | Game Handicap: KRX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-01 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | 76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: NeverPlay vs Pitstop crew - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 20%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | |
| 0.56 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | FUT_018 Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Energy | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Knicks vs. 76ers(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 247_058 Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial Peter Diamandis | AI | 71% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Orbit Anonymo vs Lodis (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Maria Sakkari vs Elena Rybakina(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_045 Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 42% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 240_056 Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) Peter Diamandis | AI | 54% | |
| 0.56 | Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5)(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 238_024 AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) Emad Mostaque | AI | 37% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5)(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2025-11-14 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Spurs vs. Timberwolves(market prob: 66%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Pistons (-4.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 36% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt | Education | 37% | ||
| 0.56 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 236_040 CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Gauff vs. Svitolina: Match O/U 21.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 16% | |
| 0.56 | Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% |